Superbowl LIV Thread: 49ers v Chiefs

paulie21

Date: Sunday February 2nd 11.30pm

Venue: Miami, Florida

Favourites: Chiefs by 1.5 points

This is the Chiefs first Superbowl in 50 years while the 49ers will be looking for their first Superbowl win in 25 years. Andy Reid will be looking to pick up the Vince Lombardi trophy for the first time in his 21 year head coaching career after previously losing out to the Patriots after the 2004 season with the Eagles. Kyle Shanahan will be heading to the Superbowl as a head coach for the first time but has prior experience as OC with the 2016 Falcons. Garrapolo, Sherman and Suggs will be relied upon to lead their teams through the hectic Superbowl weeks with them having been involved in at least one before


Verdict: 49ers don't give up the big plays that the Chiefs like and have a run game to trouble the Chiefs but Mahomes is the best QB in the league and feel he'll make enough plays to land it for Kansas City.

LuckyGent88

49ers were in the 2013 Super Bowl???

Can’t see how Chiefs are favourites after that dominant 49ers performance.serious lack of a run game and have an excellent pass rush.

49ers by 10 for me

paulie21

LuckyGent88 wrote: »

49ers were in the 2013 Super Bowl???

Can’t see how Chiefs are favourites after that dominant 49ers performance.serious lack of a run game and have an excellent pass rush.

49ers by 10 for me

Yep your right I'd completely forgotten that Superbowl

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

49ers for me but hoping for the Chiefs and big Andy to take it home.

Xavi6

I can’t go against the Chiefs after the last two weeks but if they put themselves into a similar hole then I don’t think they’ll find a way back against the 49ers.

Having Chris Jones back is huge and he will need to have a big game, along with Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu. On offense, just put the ball in Mahomes’ hands and let him go to work.

Whatever happens, I’m delighted I finally get to see the Chiefs in a Super Bowl. Cannot wait to be sat at the pub with a few beers at 7.30am on a Monday morning

Always Be Closing

I think it'll come down to a game of individuals and I believe we have more star quality on both sides of the ball

Chiefs by 9+

GBPackers

Cheering for the Chiefs but defenses win Super Bowls and SF have a good one.
SF by 7

Ohmeha

I'd also normally lean to the team with the best defence but then the other team has Patrick Mahomes. I'll sit on the fence in predicting this one it's a coin toss for me should be a great game

collybyrne

Picking the Chiefs here. I've been expecting the 49ers to be in the Superbowl from a long way out (along with the Ravens in fairness) but having seen what the Chiefs have done in the playoffs I just can't pick against them. As good as this SF defence is, I can't see how anyone stops Mahomes in this kind of form. In saying that I thought the same about Jackson and the Titans shut him down completely.

But to me Mahomes is on another level right now. I can't envisage a game where he doesn't rack up at least 25 - 30 points and I just don't have the same faith in the 49ers to match him point for point. Think it's going to be a cracker though, potentially one for the ages. And great to have two new faces in the mix. Can't wait.

cosatron

49ers for me. Mahommes won't be able to effect the game as he did against the titans. the 49ers dline is to good and mobile. he will have to sit in the pocket and make plays and the chiefs don't have the speed on defence for 49ers sideline to sideline run game.

BizzyC

I'm going with the 49ers in this one.
I think this will end up being one of the more underwhelming SB's in a few years (some people argue last year was poor, but I thought it was a great defensive battle).

The Chiefs have a habit of getting behind against good teams before taking over the game offensively and dominating.
I think the 49ers defence will hold the Chiefs early to gain a lead, and from there they will hammer their run game to keep Mahomes off the field and control the clock.

They only threw the ball 8 times against Green Bay....they aren't going to move away
from that gameplan until it stops working.

Drew.mexico

49ers are an unstoppable force this year. Cant see it going any other way.

Foxtrol

Always Be Closing wrote: »

I think it'll come down to a game of individuals and I believe we have more star quality on both sides of the ball

Chiefs by 9+

I'm not sure I agree with you on the star quality (maybe in terms of hype) however even if that is the case, stars it won't matter if Kyle makes life absolutely hell for whatever player he deems as the weak link

https://twitter.com/LefkoeShow/status/1134177622718631936

MileHighGuy

I think the 49ers are more well rounded, solid in more facets of the game, and it will be harder to shut them down.

KC obviously have a supremely talented QB in Mahomes, but I can see this Defense being his toughest test of the year, and might be able to rattle him. KC have also been relatively sloppy throughout the playoffs, and gotten away with it to some extent.

Could go either way, an intriguing game, I think it will be a good one, but think SF will edge it.

StringerBell

I think the 9ers are a better team and should be slight favourties to win it. I just can't count out a team with Mahomes on it though so wouldn't bet either way.

Just want to watch a great game and will be happy enough for either team to win it for different reasons tbh.

Jolly Red Giant

The two offences are very similar - two branches of the WCO - but the 49ers defence will win it.

MileHighGuy

Mahomes & Garoppollo will be the second youngest combination of starting QB in Super Bowl history @ 52 combined years.

The last few years combined QB age have been:

2018: 65
2017: 69(!)
2016: 68
2015: 65
2014: 63

...but which QB duo will remain the youngest to start a Super Bowl?

BoldReason

MileHighGuy wrote: »

Mahomes & Garoppollo will be the second youngest combination of starting QB in Super Bowl history @ 52 combined years.

The last few years combined QB age have been:

2018: 65
2017: 69(!)
2016: 68
2015: 65
2014: 63

...but which QB duo will remain the youngest to start a Super Bowl?

Matt Hasselbeck v Ben Roethlisberger?

Lionbacker

Well, Austin Hooper is not wrong on the Nostrodamus/Fortune Teller comments. Niners for me.

https://twitter.com/JGPinoy916/status/1219883604408328192

cj maxx

I haven't been following closely in years but just based on the championship games I got the impression that nothing will stop this SF team. This year anyway.

MileHighGuy

Lionbacker wrote:

Well, Austin Hooper is not wrong on the Nostrodamus/Fortune Teller comments. Niners for me.

That's amazing, I've never seen anything like that before. I really hope Shanahan can put 28-3 to rest after this super bowl.

MileHighGuy

BoldReason wrote:

Matt Hasselbeck v Ben Roethlisberger?

That was my guess too, but it was Montana v Marino in 85. Farve v Bledsoe a close second....

I thought it was crazy looking at the ages the last few years.... Qbs are really seeing their "prime" years extended well into their late 30s.... Although I don't see the new style offenses lending themselves to that type of longevity.

Always Be Closing

Andy Reid off a bye week is a different gravy altogether

He’s been in the lab like a mad scientist concocting plays, routes and schemes you’ve never see before

boccy23

Only noticed that there is a Freudian slip on the thread title. It is Superbowl 54 not 49!.

StringerBell

Always Be Closing wrote: »

Andy Reid off a bye week is a different gravy altogether

He’s been in the lab like a mad scientist concocting plays, routes and schemes you’ve never see before

I agree that he is up there alright, and giving him a bye week to work with is almost as bad as giving BB a bye week to work with!

The thing with Andy is, he has shown a lot of instances of poor clock management in the biggest games down the years. A bye week hasn't helped him with that yet but this could be one!

jack presley

it's the worst 6 days of the NFL season for me. This is when I tune out of all my podcasts and radio shows for the week. Super Bowl coverage is the worst with every guest on every show trying to flog some ridiculous product and then spout cliche after cliche about the game itself.

conor222

So my prediction going in is Kansas City 38 San Francisco 49ers 28

Should be an excellent game, both teams match up very well with each other. Not going to do a long winded explanation but points to watch out for:

Chiefs D give up a lot on the ground but tighten up in RZ, usage of Matthieu as a decoy piece to counter the play action game should be interesting to see, Chiefs DL rotation will be interesting, good when they can pin the ears back but game flow will determine a lot. The KC Linebacking core is weak so keeping assignments on DL to allow more time for LB to flow in will be key to run defence. Id take the KC DBs over the WR of the 49ers but think Kittle will be a nightmare due to his use in both pass and run game.

49ers defence is a strong zone based DB group, but the success of that will depend on the speed of release needed to deal with the pass rush. Chief's pass blocking has been excellent this year, especially with Fisher back and Mahomes's ability to extend pays but this is a different beast, expect bootlegs and designed doubles to give an extra half second time for release.

Keys for 49ers: Don't let Chiefs get ahead as not built for pass heavy comeback play, get DL rotation to force quick releases to stop downfield threat, some man/disguise coverage to slow down the KC offence, get the run game going to set up play action

Keys for KC: RZ defence making some TD drives into FGs, setting edges on the DL, disguise look coverage with Matthieu to counter playaction looks, finding the zone gaps to then hopefully open up some deep shots in coverage.

Should be a great game, don't expect it to get more than a score or so separating the teams until late 3rd/early 4th if both play to their ability

adrian522

conor222 wrote: »

So my prediction going in is Kansas City 38 San Francisco 49ers 28

Should be an excellent game, both teams match up very well with each other. Not going to do a long winded explanation but points to watch out for:

Chiefs D give up a lot on the ground but tighten up in RZ, usage of Matthieu as a decoy piece to counter the play action game should be interesting to see, Chiefs DL rotation will be interesting, good when they can pin the ears back but game flow will determine a lot. The KC Linebacking core is weak so keeping assignments on DL to allow more time for LB to flow in will be key to run defence. Id take the KC DBs over the WR of the 49ers but think Kittle will be a nightmare due to his use in both pass and run game.

49ers defence is a strong zone based DB group, but the success of that will depend on the speed of release needed to deal with the pass rush. Chief's pass blocking has been excellent this year, especially with Fisher back and Mahomes's ability to extend pays but this is a different beast, expect bootlegs and designed doubles to give an extra half second time for release.

Keys for 49ers: Don't let Chiefs get ahead as not built for pass heavy comeback play, get DL rotation to force quick releases to stop downfield threat, some man/disguise coverage to slow down the KC offence, get the run game going to set up play action

Keys for KC: RZ defence making some TD drives into FGs, setting edges on the DL, disguise look coverage with Matthieu to counter playaction looks, finding the zone gaps to then hopefully open up some deep shots in coverage.

Should be a great game, don't expect it to get more than a score or so separating the teams until late 3rd/early 4th if both play to their ability

I'm not sure I'd agree with some of your analysis.

The KC Linebacking core is weak so keeping assignments on DL to allow more time for LB to flow in will be key to run defence.

Run defense will be a problem for KC but even more so the LB are a weak link in coverage and I expect the 49ers will likely attack this area in the pass game.

I think people are sleeping a bit on the 49ers pass offense, possibly based on the last 2 games.

usage of Matthieu as a decoy piece to counter the play action game should be interesting to see

I'm not sure what is meant by this but the thinking seems to be that he will try to cover Kittle most often. Matthieu is good but given the size mis-match you have to think Kittle will get his yards.

If the 49ers are able to find success running the ball and KC need to bring in an extra safety to stop that then the play action will be open I think.

Id take the KC DBs over the WR of the 49ers

Really? I'm surprised at that. I consider the KC secondary to be a weak link outside of Matthieu and if they are selling out to stop the run I'd take any one on one matchup involving Breeland. Deebo Samuel and Emmanual Sanders are both very good receivers and I don't think the KC CB's match up that well against them.

You will also see plenty of passes to the RB's and TE's as well as the FB. SF typically don't throw a whole lot to the outside but I think they will have success throwing over the middle.

Keys for 49ers: Don't let Chiefs get ahead as not built for pass heavy comeback play

Which QB has the most 4th quarter comebacks this year? SF have shown they can comeback using the pass several times this year. it's not ideally how they would like to do it but if needed they can.

The key for SF on offense will be to avoid turnovers, build long drives and keep the KC offensive opportunities to a minimum.

On defense it will be an effective pass rush (without blitzing), hold up in the secondary and force at least one take away.

I think it will be close, coming down to the last possession. SF 30, KC 28.

Foxtrol

conor222 wrote: »

Keys for 49ers: Don't let Chiefs get ahead as not built for pass heavy comeback play, get DL rotation to force quick releases to stop downfield threat, some man/disguise coverage to slow down the KC offence, get the run game going to set up play action

Adrian touched on this already but until now this thread has avoided falling into that trap of downplaying the 49ers passing game and Jimmy G, unlike a surprising number of the media. It is a bit of a lazy narrative after how successful they were at running the ball during the playoffs.

Outside of the examples of multiple 10+ point comebacks this year, over the season KC only have just 3 more explosive passing plays than SF and they are much more efficient at getting them (KC having 130 more passing plays than SF). Add to that, SF also had 35 more explosive rushing plays than KC, so even if behind they can still get chunk plays running the ball which means KC can't over-commit to stopping the pass.

Both teams have shown that they are well capable of moving the ball quickly when required, which is why I think it will be a great game. Super Bowls are always much better when there is a level of tension that either team can make a comeback.

Itssoeasy

jack presley wrote: »

it's the worst 6 days of the NFL season for me. This is when I tune out of all my podcasts and radio shows for the week. Super Bowl coverage is the worst with every guest on every show trying to flog some ridiculous product and then spout cliche after cliche about the game itself.

I wouldn't say the whole week but certainly but Thursday it starts to get a bit repetitive and Sunday itself isn't a sprint it's a marathon because the game won't finish until 3:30 or 4am Irish time and the coverage starts nearly twelve hours earlier and I remember the first year I had gamepass and was able to watch the build up on the NFL network, and by kick off I was shattered and sick of hearing about the game. So my advice to first timers or people who don't normally watch the super bowl is just because you may be able to watch the build up doesn't mean you should.

Xavi6

7.30am kick off on Monday morning in my part of the world so naturally I've taken the day off work to have pints in the local sports bar

Realt Dearg Sec

Xavi6 wrote: »

7.30am kick off on Monday morning in my part of the world so naturally I've taken the day off work to have pints in the local sports bar

You can't drink all day if you don't start in the morning.

Personally I think the super bowl should be on a Saturday. Would suit everyone better.

conor222

Its a 2.30 am start here in Iraq so day booked off afterwards. Cuts down the normal watching group to 5 of us but should be good fun.
Our working week here is Sunday to Thursday so Saturday kickoff wouldn't effect it here, but I agree it'd be better as a Saturday event for pretty much all of the western world.
Does mean I have my weekend, then have to come into work for one day on Sunday before getting into game mode

rekluse

I know feck all about american football but I met someone in the pub last night who was very convincing in his arguments that the total points line was way too high (57.5) , cant even remember what he was saying but anyways a few jars later and I end up putting a decent wedge on the unders , woke up this morning with pangs of regret ! See it has now moved to 54.5 , should I cash out now for my stake or let it ride ? Any input appreciated , thanks !

Always Be Closing

rekluse wrote: »

I know feck all about american football but I met someone in the pub last night who was very convincing in his arguments that the total points line was way too high (57.5) , cant even remember what he was saying but anyways a few jars later and I end up putting a decent wedge on the unders , woke up this morning with pangs of regret ! See it has now moved to 54.5 , should I cash out now for my stake or let it ride ? Any input appreciated , thanks !

OVERS baby.

Put your granny, kids, wife, girlfriend on the side on it

adrian522

Did you bet under 57.5? Or under 54.5. The line has been 54.5 for a while now. Most of the money is on the over.

If its more money than you can really afford to lose, then maybe a small bet the other way. I never really like to bet the over/under myself but I could certainly see it finishing under 57.5

Chiefs at a canter.

rekluse

adrian522 wrote: »

Did you bet under 57.5? Or under 54.5. The line has been 54.5 for a while now. Most of the money is on the over.

If its more money than you can really afford to lose, then maybe a small bet the other way. I never really like to bet the over/under myself but I could certainly see it finishing under 57.5

Cheers adrian, it was definitely under 57.5 last night with pp , that's when I put the bet on. Was down 54.5 this afternoon when I checked , anyways decided to cash out in reality it was more money than I could afford to lose , and actually made a bit of profit for my lunch tomorrow !

cj maxx

Judging by the poll above , the chiefs have gained alot of support

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Should be a good game. Better than last years pile of poop anyway.

Realt Dearg Sec

Is it just me or is the build-up (both here and in general) way quieter than usual? I'm not sure what that's about, maybe the lack of an obvious pantomime villain?

adrian522

It just doesn't feel like Christmas.

Foxtrol

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

Is it just me or is the build-up (both here and in general) way quieter than usual? I'm not sure what that's about, maybe the lack of an obvious pantomime villain?

Definitely quieter on here but I think that can be expected given the smaller number of posters supporting each team when compared to the recent past. The US media seems as saturated with hype as other years though, at this stage everything that can be said or promoted has been.

I think you're right regarding the villain angle though. I'm obviously biased but the worst thing you can say about the 49ers squad is that Bosa is on the MAGA bandwagon, like a decent number of players, and it is hard to hate on the Chiefs due to likability of Reid and Mahomes, even if they have the scumbagery of Hill and Clark.

Podge_irl

I've managed slowly over the last 2 weeks to convince myself that the 9ers will win this relatively comfortably so that's probably their death knell...

Itssoeasy

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

Is it just me or is the build-up (both here and in general) way quieter than usual? I'm not sure what that's about, maybe the lack of an obvious pantomime villain?

That's it RDS. Both franchises are ones neutrals like. I said that the niners would be in the mix this season more because of the fact as an NFL fan I feel the league is better when a previously successful Franchise does well.

The chiefs were in two of the first four Super Bowls and their owner and founder is credited with coming up with the name of the game on Sunday. They haven't won or been in a super bowl for fifty years and two weeks ago they won the AFC trophy named after Lamar hunt for the first time ever.

I picked the niners because I like them better but honestly I'd be happy for either team to win.

jack presley

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

Is it just me or is the build-up (both here and in general) way quieter than usual? I'm not sure what that's about, maybe the lack of an obvious pantomime villain?

Everyone's saving all their energy for the XFL next week.

Always Be Closing

Foxtrol wrote: »

Definitely quieter on here but I think that can be expected given the smaller number of posters supporting each team when compared to the recent past. The US media seems as saturated with hype as other years though, at this stage everything that can be said or promoted has been.

I think you're right regarding the villain angle though. I'm obviously biased but the worst thing you can say about the 49ers squad is that Bosa is on the MAGA bandwagon, like a decent number of players, and it is hard to hate on the Chiefs due to likability of Reid and Mahomes, even if they have the scumbagery of Hill and Clark.

If there was a league table for scumbagery we’d be in the relegation places compared to certain others who’d have the league sewn up by Christmas

j8wk2feszrnpao

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

Is it just me or is the build-up (both here and in general) way quieter than usual? I'm not sure what that's about, maybe the lack of an obvious pantomime villain?

Could be the pantomime thing, but both teams walked their conference games, so not a lot to cover there. There’s been no ref decisions to debate, no controversy in between, and no real smack talk either. A limited number of fans in here for either team also a factor.

Plenty of reasons to like both teams; for me, it’s the quality both possess on the field and their HCs. Chiefs lead the way in terms of scumbags I’d root against, but Mahomes is class so worth seeing them win. Some of the fans on both sides can be painful, but at least it’s small numbers.

Hippo

As above, the point was being made during the week on the Around the NFL pod that there's less of a buzz about this game because of the absence of a pantomime villain - i.e. the Pats. Both these teams are great to watch and generally popular with neutrals.

conor222

Halfway through my work day, going awful slow, cant wait for tonight

j8wk2feszrnpao

As much as I think that 49ers have the overall better talent, I'm just gonna go for Mahomes to produce his magic and be the game MVP.