How much more "should" an ev cost ?

Markcheese

I know it's a bit of a how long is a piece of string question.. but if batteries are somewhere in the 100 to a 150 euro per kw , and then chargers and motors ,battery management ect , minus the cost of the engine and gearbox how much extra should a like for like be ?

Mike9832

Markcheese wrote: »

I know it's a bit of a how long is a piece of string question.. but if batteries are somewhere in the 100 to a 150 euro per kw , and then chargers and motors ,battery management ect , minus the cost of the engine and gearbox how much extra should a like for like be ?

60kWh battery including advanced liquid cooling

€9000

150kW high performance PM motor, inverter, charge port, controllers all those bits etc another €9000 easy

€18000

Similar power 150kW 1.6l turbo petrol engine and 55l fuel tank, exhaust, gearbox and all those bits €8000 tops? Hard to know what 100 years building them cost autogiants

EV at least €10,000 more expensive imo

Gumbo

They shudder no ore expensive than the equivalent ICE
But the problem is that we are still in the early stages of EV development at acceptance.

Eventually they should trickle down to a more affordable figure.

JPA

Mike9832 wrote: »

60kWh battery including advanced liquid cooling

€9000

150kW high performance PM motor, inverter, charge port, controllers all those bits etc another €9000 easy

€18000

Similar power 150kW 1.6l turbo petrol engine and 55l fuel tank, exhaust, gearbox and all those bits €8000 tops? Hard to know what 100 years building them cost autogiants

EV at least €10,000 more expensive imo

It is not just a case of comparing parts with parts. R and D costs have to be recouped.
As with all manufacturing, costs will start to come down over time.

LeBash

kceire wrote: »

They shudder no ore expensive than the equivalent ICE
But the problem is that we are still in the early stages of EV development at acceptance.

Eventually they should trickle down to a more affordable figure.

The first few gens of EVs will pay for all the R&D as well, start up of lines etc. Dead right they will get much more affordable in the near future, probably 6-10 years.

charlieIRL

VW tech guy told me it’s €22,000 for a replacement eGolf battery!!

Mike9832

JPA wrote: »

It is not just a case of comparing parts with parts. R and D costs have to be recouped.
As with all manufacturing, costs will start to come down over time.

Your right R&D is a huge factor and autogiants including it right now

Part for part is the end goal and EVs are still way more expensive as my example, batteries need to be down at €50 a kWh to reach parity with cheap ICE like a €11,000 Dacia

With the €10,000 grant here they should be at cost parity already imo, but still no where near

Eg High spec ICE Kona is €28,000, Kona EV pre grant €48,000

Kona EV is probably €10,000 more expensive to make part for part, the other €10,000 difference is like you said, R&D, retooling plant costs etc

unkel

Mike9832 wrote: »

60kWh battery including advanced liquid cooling

€9000

150kW high performance PM motor, inverter, charge port, controllers all those bits etc another €9000 easy

€18000

Nah. A Tesla Model 3 costs about €25k to manufacture.

Joseph SEE

Markcheese wrote: »

I know it's a bit of a how long is a piece of string question.. but if batteries are somewhere in the 100 to a 150 euro per kw , and then chargers and motors ,battery management ect , minus the cost of the engine and gearbox how much extra should a like for like be ?

Batteries are likely 200 Euro per kWh at the battery level for the car maker. That's cost price. I don't know what the figure needs to be for the carmaker to make the same profit as a fossil equivalent car.

The smaller the battery; the most expensive it is on a per kWh basis. The BMS, inverter, charger and motor are all fixed costs. They will be the same price regardless of the size of the battery. A larger battery will also incur some more additional expenses in terms of extra material, wiring and cooling (if liquid).

If the cost is 200 Euro, that doesn't include any profit. As far as I can see the bulk of car manufacture profits reside with parts required for maintenance, repair and servicing. Those income streams are not going to be a great revenue source when it comes to EVs.


In Europe/North America only about 3 companies are producing EVs in any quantity such as to take advantage of economies of scale. And there's a huge supply issue with cell production that I can't see being resolved anytime soon.

I do suspect that the profit margin is a bit higher on EVs, but I don't know for certain. A car model is extremely expensive to produce and it's not possible to produce EVs at the same scale as fossil cars due to cell scarcity. Tesla are still far behind the big players in the amount of cars they make per year.

The car market is also contracting worldwide - another reason for car makers to try and eke out more profit from EVs.

One trend is consistent cell prices are getting cheaper and cheaper at incredible rates. Then again the batteries in EVs are also getting larger too and range is going up and up.

KCross

Joseph SEE wrote: »

One trend is consistent cell prices are getting cheaper and cheaper at incredible rates. Then again the batteries in EVs are also getting larger too and range is going up and up.

Which is exactly why prices havent dropped, cheaper batteries but more required so price doesnt improve to the consumer, but the cars are becoming more palatable from a range perspective.

Shefwedfan

Mike9832 wrote: »

60kWh battery including advanced liquid cooling

€9000

150kW high performance PM motor, inverter, charge port, controllers all those bits etc another €9000 easy

€18000

Similar power 150kW 1.6l turbo petrol engine and 55l fuel tank, exhaust, gearbox and all those bits €8000 tops? Hard to know what 100 years building them cost autogiants

EV at least €10,000 more expensive imo

:P:P:P:P:P


Not a clue......

Mike9832

unkel wrote: »

Nah. A Tesla Model 3 costs about €25k to manufacture.

Maybe

With 18k of the EV parts

A 75kWh liquid cooled battery at pack level with BMS from Panasonic is not under €9000

High performance 200kW+ PM motors, huge inverters and all that gear is not much cheaper

The chassis, seats and all that suff might be €8000 alright

Mike9832

Shefwedfan wrote: »

:P:P:P:P:P


Not a clue......

Anything beneficial to add?

Shefwedfan

Like any company in the World, auto companies have other overhead

So lets look at staff. So yes they pay wages. They also will pay pensions etc for majority of staff. Health care etc depending on the country. Also you hire someone it could be 6 months before they can actually work properly. So that's 6 months wages with low production. All has to be taken into account

You then have insurance for the staff. You would have safety clothes etc. All need to be supplied.

So just an idea. Anyway saying quoting a price off a website for a per kWh and then expecting to pay it really hasn't a clue what they are talking about.

Yes car companies make money, but they only make big money when the car becomes mainstream like VW are trying to do with ID. Not at this stage.

Can they do the car cheaper? potentially. Will they be a lot cheaper in the future.Absolutely.

Mike9832

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Like any company in the World, auto companies have other overhead

So lets look at staff. So yes they pay wages. They also will pay pensions etc for majority of staff. Health care etc depending on the country. Also you hire someone it could be 6 months before they can actually work properly. So that's 6 months wages with low production. All has to be taken into account

You then have insurance for the staff. You would have safety clothes etc. All need to be supplied.

So just an idea. Anyway saying quoting a price off a website for a per kWh and then expecting to pay it really hasn't a clue what they are talking about.

Yes car companies make money, but they only make big money when the car becomes mainstream like VW are trying to do with ID. Not at this stage.

Can they do the car cheaper? potentially. Will they be a lot cheaper in the future.Absolutely.

Most EVs out now are on the same production line

All of the above doesn't apply today

Thats for dedicated platforms, not out by autogiants

Shefwedfan

Mike9832 wrote: »

Most EVs out now are on the same production line

All of the above doesn't apply today

Thats for dedicated platforms, not out by autogiants

What are you waffling about?

All companies have staff. From the person washing the floor to the exec. How does the company make money to pay these staff?

That is just staff, manufacturing plants. You think they just appear? they have no maintenance?

Ever hear of patents? give it a little google and you might learn something as well.


You have ruined every thread on this forum with this "pricing" you came up with and it is a load of rubbish because you don't actually understand the very basics of a company or what it takes to produce a product.

BKtje

VW claim that their battery prices are below $100 per kw/h according to this article from september.

https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-electric-cars-battery-costs-versus-tesla-2019-9?r=US&IR=T

The rest I haven't a clue regarding pricing but battery costs accross the board are coming down.

krissovo

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Like any company in the World, auto companies have other overhead

So lets look at staff. So yes they pay wages. They also will pay pensions etc for majority of staff. Health care etc depending on the country. Also you hire someone it could be 6 months before they can actually work properly. So that's 6 months wages with low production. All has to be taken into account

You then have insurance for the staff. You would have safety clothes etc. All need to be supplied.

So just an idea. Anyway saying quoting a price off a website for a per kWh and then expecting to pay it really hasn't a clue what they are talking about.

Yes car companies make money, but they only make big money when the car becomes mainstream like VW are trying to do with ID. Not at this stage.

Can they do the car cheaper? potentially. Will they be a lot cheaper in the future.Absolutely.

There is a lot of waffle there, BMW made the I3 very profitable and that includes new plants in the states and in Germany. Its far from a VW ID platform and mainstream car.

I spoke to the I3 product manager last week and asked about the margin on a per unit level. Of course he didnt tell me but I got a smile and some facts about increasing the spec of the car while keeping the base price constant. They are also making money through licensing technology to other manufactures and VW would have purchased rights for some of the i tech.

EV prices are artificially high right now, this is in part to grants and the public demand and manufactures taking advantage of the situation. Hyundai or Kia could sell all their current EV's for €4/5K higher than the ICE version and still make money.

ELM327

krissovo wrote: »

There is a lot of waffle there, BMW made the I3 very profitable and that includes new plants in the states and in Germany. Its far from a VW ID platform and mainstream car.

I spoke to the I3 product manager last week and asked about the margin on a per unit level. Of course he didnt tell me but I got a smile and some facts about increasing the spec of the car while keeping the base price constant. They are also making money through licensing technology to other manufactures and VW would have purchased rights for some of the i tech.

EV prices are artificially high right now, this is in part to grants and the public demand and manufactures taking advantage of the situation. Hyundai or Kia could sell all their current EV's for €4/5K higher than the ICE version and still make money.

Only because they wrote off the initial investments as sunk costs. It's not profitable if you include these costs.

Markcheese

Pricing is a funny thing , cars are fairly competitive price wise , (probably have to be to pay for the duds),
In the us trucks have higher profit margins ,which is a bit counter intuitive ,you'd think a "commercial" would have lower margins .. apparently vans here are a bit similar ....
If companies can up the public expectation of how much a vehicle is worth then they will try ..
The tech is constantly changing ,the public demand is growing ,the parts are expensive ,the regulations are restricting the alternatives, it's all in the mix ..
But given the choice they all want to be pricing like apple not like Sony or Motorola
..

unkel

krissovo wrote: »

I got a smile and some facts about increasing the spec of the car while keeping the base price constant.

Specs? He was obviously just talking about increasing the size of the battery and keeping the price constant (in fact I think they Irish price has come down over the years)

Hardly surprising as the per kWh price this year is probably only about a third of what it was back in 2014. So even if you make the battery 2.5 times as big, your overall manufacturing costs are lower...

galwaytt

unkel wrote: »

Nah. A Tesla Model 3 costs about €25k to manufacture.

Where - US, China, Berlin ?

The cost to build a Model 3 will different in each.

unkel

US. Figures over 2018 (so should be considerably cheaper now, particularly in China)

krissovo

unkel wrote: »

Specs? He was obviously just talking about increasing the size of the battery and keeping the price constant (in fact I think they Irish price has come down over the years)

The media system was upgraded in 2018 to pro along with a few other options on the previous years.

unkel

That would have cost BMW all of EUR100

Joseph SEE

BKtje wrote: »

VW claim that their battery prices are below $100 per kw/h according to this article from september.

https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-electric-cars-battery-costs-versus-tesla-2019-9?r=US&IR=T

The rest I haven't a clue regarding pricing but battery costs accross the board are coming down.

Not a chance that's true unless it's at the cell level.

unkel

Joseph SEE wrote: »

Not a chance that's true unless it's at the cell level.

Yeah that was my thoughts too. And battery prices are usually measured at pack level, as that's the way the are bought in afaik (Tesla excepted as they make their own)

Complete pack prices recently were closer to USD200 than they were to USD100 per kWh

Joseph SEE

unkel wrote: »

Yeah that was my thoughts too. And battery prices are usually measured at pack level, as that's the way the are bought in afaik (Tesla excepted as they make their own)

Complete pack prices recently were closer to USD200 than they were to USD100 per kWh

I'd take what Musk says with a handful of salt. They should have an advantage though.

I'd say they'll get to that 100 USD/Euro price point within 10 years and hopefully within 5.

100kWh for circa 12K Euro (factoring in some margin for profit and transport) sounds very satisfying. Home storage would become widespread at such
prices.

liamog

$156/kWh at the pack level was the industry average according to BNEF recently.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-as-market-ramps-up-with-market-average-at-156-kwh-in-2019/

I imagine VW will be somewhere below the average price, supposedly they've signed contracts for around $50 Billion, there could be an element of front-loading the prices based on such a large order.

Joseph SEE

liamog wrote: »

$156/kWh at the pack level was the industry average according to BNEF recently.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-as-market-ramps-up-with-market-average-at-156-kwh-in-2019/

I imagine VW will be somewhere below the average price, supposedly they've signed contracts for around $50 Billion, there could be an element of front-loading the prices based on such a large order.

The real concern is supply. According to this article VW want to purchase 300gWh of capacity per year. We just don't have anywhere near that capacity at the moment.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-05-27/vw-to-reshuffle-56-billion-battery-push-as-samsung-deal-at-risk

Shefwedfan

Joseph SEE wrote: »

The real concern is supply. According to this article VW want to purchase 300gWh of capacity per year. We just don't have anywhere near that capacity at the moment.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-05-27/vw-to-reshuffle-56-billion-battery-push-as-samsung-deal-at-risk

With the money floating around companies will find ways to meet supply