What will happen if Scotland defies Johnson?

realitykeeper

Boris Johnson says he will not support another independence referendum for Scotland but what if Scotland holds a referendum without say so from Westminster? The Scots would prefer to remain both in the UK and the EU but unlike the last referendum, it is now clear they must choose between the two. Given the strong support for the SNP, it looks likely that a second referendum would favour leaving the UK to remain in the EU.

If that were to happen, should the EU recognize the validity of the referendum? (I think they should).

However, I think those Scots who reluctantly opt to stay in the EU may regret their decision t leave the UK. The reason I say this is because I see no way the EU itself can survive the next recession. Ireland and the Med countries will demand massive and unprecedented QE while northern European countries will want to avoid triggering hyperinflation. This will result in the fragmentation and break up of the EU.

If the EU breaks up right after Scotland chooses to leave the UK, then those Scots who were reluctant leavers of the UK will immediately do a u-turn which might be a bit humbling. If I were a Scot, I would want out of the UK even if the EU does break up.

Anyways, is this all hypothetical or could any of it happen?

dd973

Probably a long and protracted legal battle, if and when (and I hope it's when) they do go I think it'll soften up the course for reunification if they leave the UK first, on the one hand Ibrox/Freemasonry tinted Unionism is on the wane in Scotland after being dealt successive bad hands from a disinterested Westminster and Whitehall, and on the other the Scottish flags that fly up North are probably more heavily invested with the Ulster Unionist's identification with the UK/Britain more than Scotland itself even if the bulk of them descend from there.

It's common knowledge that Ulster Unionists/Loyalists are against Scottish nationalism which in turn creates another chasm, Orangemen who went to Edinburgh to campaign for the No vote in 2014 were told in no uncertain terms where to go by Yes voters.(Back home Paddy, must have been music to their ears!)

The Scots have a social cohesion and a long standing intellectual culture absent south of the border as well as an instinct for progressive and inclusive politics, they're not going to be taken for mugs forever by the Bullingdon Club. Saor Alba!

suicide_circus

Pro independence parties won 45% of the vote in Scotland so if there is another referendum its by no means certain it would pass. they'd be better off waiting a bit and if Brexit destroys the economy then going for it.

Richard Hillman

Every poll conducted still suggests its 55:45 to remain. Everything from the Fake News Irish Media is exactly Fake News.

Darc19

Op - we had one mad deep recession that was a near worldwide recession caused by crazy sub sub sub prime lending.

Highly unlikely for such a recession to occur again.

Yes, some media will scaremonger their readers and some readers will believe it, but such a recession was a one off.

Yes, we'll have further recessions/dips that will be caused by anything from wars to oil crisis to Donald Trump throwing a hissy.

But a sensationalist post like yours has no basis to back it up - seems from other posts of yours you have a very negative mindset on a recession

ebbsy

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Every poll conducted still suggests its 55:45 to remain. Everything from the Fake News Irish Media is exactly Fake News.

Yeah they will not leave the UK.

They cannot afford to leave either.

realitykeeper

dd973 wrote: »

Probably a long and protracted legal battle, if and when (and I hope it's when) they do go I think it'll soften up the course for reunification if they leave the UK first, on the one hand Ibrox/Freemasonry tinted Unionism is on the wane in Scotland after being dealt successive bad hands from a disinterested Westminster and Whitehall, and on the other the Scottish flags that fly up North are probably more heavily invested with the Ulster Unionist's identification with the UK/Britain more than Scotland itself even if the bulk of them descend from there.

It's common knowledge that Ulster Unionists/Loyalists are against Scottish nationalism which in turn creates another chasm, Orangemen who went to Edinburgh to campaign for the No vote in 2014 were told in no uncertain terms where to go by Yes voters.(Back home Paddy, must have been music to their ears!)

The Scots have a social cohesion and a long standing intellectual culture absent south of the border as well as an instinct for progressive and inclusive politics, they're not going to be taken for mugs forever by the Bullingdon Club. Saor Alba!

Yes. Hadrian`s wall is well inside "England" but the people north of it generally speak with a stereotypical Scottish accent. It could be argued that Ulster orange men who went campaigning in Scotland were home. Back in the eighties, Edward Kennedy was touring Northern Ireland on a fact finding mission and one of the British soldiers told him to go back to his own country. Ed Kennedy was quick to retort by telling the Brit that Ireland was his country and the Brit should go back to his. I think eventually the peoples of Ireland will become more cohesive but since Gaelic culture is what makes Ireland and Scotland unique, so that is what will be cherished. If it is allowed to die, I think alcoholism and hopelessness will become endemic and the best people will leave.

realitykeeper

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Every poll conducted still suggests its 55:45 to remain. Everything from the Fake News Irish Media is exactly Fake News.

Yes but a far high percentage want to remain in the EU. Polls reflect the pollsters wishes more than those polled. Instead of asking if they wanted to remain in the UK, what if they had asked the more relevant question, i.e. to choose between the UK and EU. The election result would indicate very strong support for ongoing membership of the EU and an immediate referendum would now be a good idea I suspect.

realitykeeper

realitykeeper wrote: »

I think eventually the peoples of Ireland will become more cohesive but since Gaelic culture is what makes Ireland and Scotland unique, so that is what will be cherished. If it is allowed to die, I think alcoholism and hopelessness will become endemic and the best people will leave.

A sociologist sans pareil. The chasm between fiction and reality grows ever wider.

realitykeeper

Deleted User wrote: »

A sociologist sans pareil. The chasm between fiction and reality grows ever wider.

The native Americans, New Zealand Maoris and the Irish are not renowned for sobriety and temperance so there is a kernel of truth to what I say.

Kermit.de.frog

realitykeeper wrote: »

The Scots would prefer to remain both in the UK and the EU but unlike the last referendum, it is now clear they must choose between the two.

You do know the EU is not a sovereign entity, right? The UK is.

realitykeeper

realitykeeper wrote: »

The native Americans, New Zealand Maoris and the Irish are not renowned for sobriety and temperance so there is a kernel of truth to what I say.

The natives are restless. Ripe for colonisation I'd say.

I heard the sun set on the British empire generations ago, but that must be an idle rumour.

realitykeeper

Deleted User wrote: »

The natives are restless. Ripe for colonisation I'd say.

I heard the sun set on the British empire generations ago, but that must be an idle rumour.

You lost me there.

realitykeeper

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You do know the EU is not a sovereign entity, right? The UK is.

Perhaps but the EU is bigger and stronger than the UK and the Scots know that. The wigs in the UK supreme court may deem a Scottish referendum illegal but a vote to leave the UK in order to stay in the EU may well be recognized as legit by the EU. Like I say, the EU is bigger and stronger.

suicide_circus

realitykeeper wrote: »

Perhaps but the EU is bigger and stronger than the UK and the Scots know that. The wigs in the UK supreme court may deem a Scottish referendum illegal but a vote to leave the UK in order to stay in the EU may well be recognized as legit by the EU. Like I say, the EU is bigger and stronger.

well the EU threw Catalonia under the bus so i wouldn't be too hopeful

theological

realitykeeper wrote: »

Yes but a far high percentage want to remain in the EU. Polls reflect the pollsters wishes more than those polled. Instead of asking if they wanted to remain in the UK, what if they had asked the more relevant question, i.e. to choose between the UK and EU. The election result would indicate very strong support for ongoing membership of the EU and an immediate referendum would now be a good idea I suspect.

The question is is staying in the EU more important than staying in the UK for Scots.

I doubt that their attachment to the EU is greater than their attachment to staying in the UK. Perhaps I can be proven wrong.

It's also important to distinguish a victory in a general election from a victory in a referendum. Just because 45% voted for the SNP in this scenario does not mean that they voted for them because they wanted independence. Many tactically voted for them to keep Boris Johnson out, and many voted because they supported remaining in the EU. The SNP promoted that reasoning. I didn't hear much about independence coming from them in the campaign either.

Supporting remaining in the EU is not the same thing as voting to leave the UK.

If there is a referendum I can't see one being honoured by Westminster until after the 2021 Scottish assembly election when we get a clearer picture of what the reality is on this issue. It is worth pointing out that the SNP have a minority government in Holyrood at the moment. Even then, I can't see Westminster recognising a referendum until after a protracted legal battle to the Supreme Court. There's no guarantee that the SNP will win that one.

threeball

suicide_circus wrote: »

well the EU threw Catalonia under the bus so i wouldn't be too hopeful

Spain is a card carrying EU member, The UK in the next few months will not be so the EUs loyalty to them won't be an issue.

Scotland could become the main route for trade between Ireland and the EU

threeball

realitykeeper wrote: »

I think eventually the peoples of Ireland will become more cohesive but since Gaelic culture is what makes Ireland and Scotland unique, so that is what will be cherished. If it is allowed to die, I think alcoholism and hopelessness will become endemic and the best people will leave.

I've read some far fetched sh1t in my time but this takes the biscuit.

jackboy

threeball wrote: »

Spain is a card carrying EU member, The UK in the next few months will not be so the EUs loyalty to them won't be an issue.

Scotland could become the main route for trade between Ireland and the EU

The EU would never allow an independent Scotland to join. Spain and potentially a few other countries would veto that.

biko

Scotland had their chance to leave UK 2014, they didn't take it.

Boggles

biko wrote: »

Scotland had their chance to leave UK 2014, they didn't take it.

Yip. 1 or 2 things have changed since though.

Timberrrrrrrr

threeball wrote: »

I've read some far fetched sh1t in my time but this takes the biscuit.

You should read some of the threads he has started :pac:

Seth Brundle

suicide_circus wrote: »

well the EU threw Catalonia under the bus so i wouldn't be too hopeful

How exactly did the EU throw Catalonia under a bus?

jackboy wrote: »

The EU would never allow an independent Scotland to join. Spain and potentially a few other countries would veto that.

Haven't they already said that an independent Scotland could join?

jackboy

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Haven't they already said that an independent Scotland could join?

No. They cannot make such a decision without a vote by all the member states.

1641

This is an ideal election result from an SNP point of view - their victory in Scotland and a strong Tory majority in Westminister. I suspect they do not want a referendum at the moment as there is far from certain that they would win it.

However, with their election victory they can creditably push for a referendum, and the more Westminister resists the more the SNP can portray them as hostile to Scotland and thereby whip up nationalist sentiment.

This creates a dilemma for the Tories - how do they handle it? There are elections to the Scottish Assembly in 2021. Do they try to win over unionist support before then by "killing Home Rule by kindness"? Time is on the SNPs side - the older cohort of voters is most unionist, the younger most nationalist. If they can keep portraying the Tories/Westminister government as anti-Scottish for a few more years they might just get their referendum victory - particularly if Brexit impacts badly on the economy.

There is a certain argument for Westminister to agree to offer a snap referendum next year. If the SNP lost that it would be over for a long time. I doubt this will happen though.

realitykeeper

suicide_circus wrote: »

well the EU threw Catalonia under the bus so i wouldn't be too hopeful

Spain isn`t trying to leave the EU.

realitykeeper

theological wrote: »

The question is is staying in the EU more important than staying in the UK for Scots.

I doubt that their attachment to the EU is greater than their attachment to staying in the UK. Perhaps I can be proven wrong.

It's also important to distinguish a victory in a general election from a victory in a referendum. Just because 45% voted for the SNP in this scenario does not mean that they voted for them because they wanted independence. Many tactically voted for them to keep Boris Johnson out, and many voted because they supported remaining in the EU. The SNP promoted that reasoning. I didn't hear much about independence coming from them in the campaign either.

Supporting remaining in the EU is not the same thing as voting to leave the UK.

If there is a referendum I can't see one being honoured by Westminster until after the 2021 Scottish assembly election when we get a clearer picture of what the reality is on this issue. It is worth pointing out that the SNP have a minority government in Holyrood at the moment. Even then, I can't see Westminster recognising a referendum until after a protracted legal battle to the Supreme Court. There's no guarantee that the SNP will win that one.

The SNP won 48 out of 59 seats. That is about 80% of the seats. The question I asked was what if Scotland has a referendum without permission from Westminster.

realitykeeper

jackboy wrote: »

No. They cannot make such a decision without a vote by all the member states.

I think it will be unanimous.

X111111111111

Scotland is part of the United Kingdom. The EU would be wise to stay the hell out of matters that don't involve them in any way.

realitykeeper

1641 wrote: »

This is an ideal election result from an SNP point of view - their victory in Scotland and a strong Tory majority in Westminister. I suspect they do not want a referendum at the moment as there is far from certain that they would win it.

I think winning or losing is not really relevant. The main purpose is to find out what the people want given the fact that England want to leave the EU. If the Scots want to remain with a UK that is leaving the EU, so be it but they should be consulted again.

jackboy

realitykeeper wrote: »

I think it will be unanimous.

No chance. Spain cannot accept that.

realitykeeper

X111111111111 wrote: »

Scotland is part of the United Kingdom. The EU would be wise to stay the hell out of matters that don't involve them in any way.

Only as long as Scotland want that.

Fann Linn

I'd like to know the view of the Irish govt on a Scottish referendum considering they're running a mile from the thoughts of a Border Poll.

realitykeeper

jackboy wrote: »

No chance. Spain cannot accept that.

Of course they can. The situation is completely different. Spain is not trying to leave the EU.

jackboy

realitykeeper wrote: »

Of course they can. The situation is completely different. Spain is not trying to leave the EU.

Catalonia wants to leave Spain. If Spain vote for Scotland to join the EU they are supporting the breakup of European nations. They won’t do that. Some other European countries may have similar reservations.

osarusan

realitykeeper wrote: »

Of course they can. The situation is completely different. Spain is not trying to leave the EU.

Spain won't want a precedent of newly-formed states getting entry to the EU that will further stoke Catalonian independence movements.

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

realitykeeper wrote: »

Yes but a far high percentage want to remain in the EU. Polls reflect the pollsters wishes more than those polled. Instead of asking if they wanted to remain in the UK, what if they had asked the more relevant question, i.e. to choose between the UK and EU. The election result would indicate very strong support for ongoing membership of the EU and an immediate referendum would now be a good idea I suspect.

Remaining in the EU as an independent Scotland, even when the UK was still in, was by no means a certainty. Scotland re-joining the EU, after the UK has left, will not be easy and will take considerable time, if it happens at all.

4068ac1elhodqr

A few re-runs of Braveheart on the telly box, and 'New Alba' (New Scotia sounds better, but is taken) will be founded in no time.
Instead of a fancy bridge to Antrim, they could align with (non-EU) Norway, until a new Celtic & Viking Union is formed.

is_that_so

jackboy wrote: »

No. They cannot make such a decision without a vote by all the member states.

The'd actually have to join the back of the queue.

is_that_so

jackboy wrote: »

Catalonia wants to leave Spain. If Spain vote for Scotland to join the EU they are supporting the breakup of European nations. They won’t do that. Some other European countries may have similar reservations.

Some people in Catalonia favour leaving Spain. They are far from a majority, but they too would be at the back of the queue, something that is never alluded to in their campaigns.

biko

I think Scotland should have a referendum on leaving UK.
Then a referendum on joining EU.
Leaving UK should not mean someone simultaneously votes for joining EU.

Scotland's biggest trading partner is UK.
The Scottish Government's annual trade statistics ('Export Statistics Scotland') show that in 2016 Scotland exported more than £45 billion in goods and services to England, Wales and Northern Ireland – while exports to the EU total £12.7 billion.

1641

realitykeeper wrote: »

I think winning or losing is not really relevant. The main purpose is to find out what the people want given the fact that England want to leave the EU. If the Scots want to remain with a UK that is leaving the EU, so be it but they should be consulted again.

No. From a Scottish nationalist perspective winning a referendum is very relevant. The opinion polls have improved for this but still do not suggest a win - at the very best 50/50. If they get one now and lose, it will be a very long time until there is another one - if ever.

But if Brexit has a negative impact and the SNP can whip up a narrative of Tory bootboys V Scotland, then the chances could well shift. The more the Tories just say NO to the referendum demand from the SNP the more it suits Sturgeon.

realitykeeper

jackboy wrote: »

Catalonia wants to leave Spain. If Spain vote for Scotland to join the EU they are supporting the breakup of European nations. They won’t do that. Some other European countries may have similar reservations.

England will soon be outside the EU. Spain cannot be concerning itself with every banana republic from Fiji to England.

realitykeeper

Hope Delightful Marrow wrote: »

Remaining in the EU as an independent Scotland, even when the UK was still in, was by no means a certainty. Scotland re-joining the EU, after the UK has left, will not be easy and will take considerable time, if it happens at all.

The EU will want the process to be seamless so that is what it will be.

realitykeeper

1641 wrote: »

No. From a Scottish nationalist perspective winning a referendum is very relevant. The opinion polls have improved for this but still do not suggest a win - at the very best 50/50.

Those opinion polls preceded the UK election when it not not clear how things would pan out. Now it is obvious that Britain will leave the EU soon. That was not definite before now.

1641

realitykeeper wrote: »

Those opinion polls preceded the UK election when it not not clear how things would pan out. Now it is obvious that Britain will leave the EU soon. That was not definite before now.

The best they got was 51% V 49% for independence and that was with factoring in Brexit. https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scotland-would-vote-for-independence-if-brexit-goes-ahead-new-poll-suggests-1-5058877

Far too close to call and that is before all the fear factor of the campaign kicks in, eg, losing Sterling, a border with by far their largest trading partner, the budget and public services (Scotland is subsidised by central funds), etc. It could go either way but, in a quick referendum, I would bet on a "No". (Might London be tempted?).

Whenever the referendum comes it is a must win for the SNP. It will suit them very well for now to play the Tories as denying Scotland a vote and thereby whip up nationalism. They will then have time to get more young voters on the register and hope for a negative Brexit impact.

FrancieBrady

osarusan wrote: »

Spain won't want a precedent of newly-formed states getting entry to the EU that will further stoke Catalonian independence movements.

Spain, (when Rahoy was PM) has already said they would have no legal objection to Scotland joining the EU.

Scotland will leave the UK legally and constitutionally (in as much as they have a constitution) if they have a referendum, Catalonia is different, as it is unconstitutional for them to leave Spain.

There is no comparison therefore and no objection coming from Spain.

realitykeeper

1641 wrote: »

The best they got was 51% V 49% for independence and that was with factoring in Brexit. https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scotland-would-vote-for-independence-if-brexit-goes-ahead-new-poll-suggests-1-5058877

Far too close to call and that is before all the fear factor of the campaign kicks in, eg, losing Sterling, a border with by far their largest trading partner, the budget and public services (Scotland is subsidised by central funds), etc. It could go either way but, in a quick referendum, I would bet on a "No". (Might London be tempted?).

Whenever the referendum comes it is a must win for the SNP. It will suit them very well for now to play the Tories as denying Scotland a vote and thereby whip up nationalism. They will then have time to get more young voters on the register and hope for a negative Brexit impact.

I disagree with your assertion that 51% is the best they can expect. Granted a majority would opt to remain with the UK if Brexit was not happening but up until a couple of days ago, the possibility existed of another referendum on Brexit. That possibility is now gone so the option of staying in the UK no longer carries the possibility of staying in the EU as was the case when the poll you refer to was carried out. Given the massive endorsement given to the SNP, I think some of those who wanted to stay in both the UK and the EU will choose the EU over the UK. This will result in a clear majority for Scottish independence.

threeball

threeball wrote: »

Scotland could become the main route for trade between Ireland and the EU

Have you ever looked at a map?

1641

[/QUOTE]I disagree with your assertion that 51% is the best they can expect.

Except I made no such assertion. I indicated that in the most recent opinion poll 51% indicated they would vote for independence in the event of a UK Brexit. That is too close to call. In my opinion in would not pass at the moment - but it may do down the road if events run in the SNPs favour. I understand that you have a different opinion - fair enough.

Given the massive endorsement given to the SNP, I think some of those who wanted to stay in both the UK and the EU will choose the EU over the UK. This will result in a clear majority for Scottish independence.

The SNP won a massive seat share with 45% of the vote. The Tories, Labour and Lib-Dems combined (all pro-union) won 53%. Not all of these votes (on either side) will fall the same way in a referendum. But it still indicates a race too close to call. Whenever the referendum comes the SNP must win it - if they lose again that is it for at least a generation - and maybe, even, the beginning of the end for the SNP (especially if Labour can succeed in getting decent leadership in place and re-building their working class vote).

Berserker

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Every poll conducted still suggests its 55:45 to remain. Everything from the Fake News Irish Media is exactly Fake News.

The Irish media seem to want to forget that fact.

realitykeeper wrote: »

The election result would indicate very strong support for ongoing membership of the EU and an immediate referendum would now be a good idea I suspect.

The election result would indicate that 55% of voters would vote to remain in the UK. You also need to consider the fact that some of the people who voted SNP would not be in favour of leaving the UK. Nicola Sturgeon acknowledged this last week.

If Scotland waits until after Brexit is done, they will need to re-apply for membership. If Scotland wanted to opt for independence, IndyRef1 was the time to do it. They didn't, which was a win for the Union and for the RoI.

1641 wrote: »

But it still indicates a race too close to call. Whenever the referendum comes the SNP must win it - if they lose again that is it for at least a generation - and maybe, even, the beginning of the end for the SNP (especially if Labour can succeed in getting decent leadership in place and re-building their working class vote).

That was supposed to be the case for the last one.