Bushfires in Australia

Tigerandahalf

It seems this is one of the worst years yet for bushfires with NSW currently going through a bad period. Reading the article below from the Guardian the outlook doesn't look great with Victoria still to go through the most dangerous period.

The Guardian: The big smoke: how bushfires cast a pall over the Australian summer.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/05/the-big-smoke-how-bushfires-cast-a-pall-over-the-australian-summer

A lot of people seem to be reporting with lung or throat related issues and there are some dangerously high levels of particles in the air.

Many people are having to stay inside instead of heading to the beach or camping.

AngryHippie

Mostly true, its the worst season in living memory. (Coming from FIL who has been in the RFS since he was a kid, and his dad before him)

We've been pretty lucky so far too, it could have been a lot worse, volunteers (+candadians +Kiwis + army) have been doing an amazing job protecting properties and getting the fires under control. Unfortunatley, it is being politicized in a particularly useless way.

• Greens getting blamed for preventing fuel reduction burns - not entirely true, they do support hazard reduction burns
• Libs accusing labour and vice-versa of over development and urban sprawl - both true, both taking stamp duty coin and wasting in on junkets and quangos
• Slashing budgets for national parks and RFS - THis has been happening for a while, NPS are responsible for the parks and RFS can't undertake reduction burns in there, so if they are understaffed, then it doesn't happen, then the fuel accumulates and the fires get hotter, faster and harder to stop
• Climate change role being over played - The Dipole is still not fully understood and the El Nino/La Nina cycle was previously thought to be responsible for drought/flood cycles on the East coast. Truth is nobody knows yet

Its a bit of a ****show. Anyone on the East coast with a respiratory issue is more or less housebound. The unions have gone to the extent of closing construction sites due to air quality, flights are being impacted and the only thing that will ease the situation is a full week of 50-100mm per day of rain. There is no sign of that on the long range forecast. The Volunteers are overstretched and exhausted already and VIC (the most at risk state) hasn't even hit peak season yet.

dazza480

My father is in Sydney I hope his ok

mandrake04

dazza480 wrote: »

My father is in Sydney I hope his ok

I’m sure he is, today was pretty clear.

igCorcaigh

Seems really bad, 11 lives lost since September I think.

Black Saturday 2009 saw 173 lives lost, with 450 kha of land burned.

This season's fires have burned 36,000 kha of land.

That seems like a vastly bigger area of land affected than in 2009, am I correct?


https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/dec/31/australia-fires-live-news-nsw-victoria-bushfires-latest-updates

https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/black-saturday-bushfires

spurious

Those images from Mallacoota beach are terrifying.

igCorcaigh

spurious wrote: »

Those images from Mallacoota beach are terrifying.

Sure are. I think they're safe now, the wind changed direction.

spurious

Imagine the terror of having kids with you during that. It doesn't bear thinking of.

igCorcaigh

Total area of land burned compared to London.



https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-interactive/2019/dec/07/how-big-are-the-fires-burning-on-the-east-coast-of-australia-interactive-map

mandrake04

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Seems really bad, 11 lives lost since September I think.

Black Saturday 2009 saw 173 lives lost, with 450 kha of land burned.

This season's fires have burned 36,000 kha of land.

That seems like a vastly bigger area of land affected than in 2009, am I correct?


https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/dec/31/australia-fires-live-news-nsw-victoria-bushfires-latest-updates

https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/black-saturday-bushfires

2009 were not a big fire, it’s was just extreme conditions 46C Humidity went as low as 2% and 100km/hr winds caught people by surprise and made it the deadliest.

Current fires in NSW are 3.6m Ha over the last month, Black Thursday 1851 burned 5m Ha in one day. That’s 1/4 state of Victoria.

jackbhoy

mandrake04 wrote: »

....Black Thursday 1851 burned 5m Ha in one day....

What's your source on that one day quote Mandrake?

It's unimaginable that that much land could burn in 24 hours and also hard to believe that it could be in any way accurately measured at that time, given sparse nature of population etc.

Everything I heard about that event before was that fires had been burning for weeks and it was named for the Thursday fire as it was the hottest day and most severe damage/loss of life.

mandrake04

jackbhoy wrote: »

What's your source on that one day quote Mandrake?

It's unimaginable that that much land could burn in 24 hours and also hard to believe that it could be in any way accurately measured at that time, given sparse nature of population etc.

Everything I heard about that event before was that fires had been burning for weeks and it was named for the Thursday fire as it was the hottest day and most severe damage/loss of life.

Apparently it was just a single day, it did say there was an intense drought beforehand. But as 2009 fires the wind is what makes it incredible.

Note that the heat could be felt on ships 32km offshore.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Thursday_bushfires

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7838193/How-current-bushfire-crisis-compares-biggest-blazes-Australias-history.html

Gael23

At what point does this turn into a humanitarian emergency?

ambasite

Gael23 wrote: »

At what point does this turn into a humanitarian emergency?

When Scott Morrison deems it to be politically expedient.

AngryHippie

ambasite wrote: »

When Scott Morrison deems it to be politically expedient.

Only if that is before the GG steps in and pushes the E-stop

(but he won't)

el diablo

hussey

Sigh, just no.

NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) Inspector Ben Shepherd said earlier this week lightning was predominantly responsible for the bushfire crisis.

"I can confidently say the majority of the larger fires that we have been dealing with have been a result of fires coming out of remote areas as a result of dry lightning storms,"

jackbhoy

Take that rwnj, conspiracy theory bs elsewhere diablo. This isn't 4chan

jackbhoy

And even if arson was the chief cause, which it is not, that would just explain ignition of the fire. it wouldn't explain the subsequent scale, the massive tinder dry fuel-load that has caused these huge fires, the burning of wetlands and rain forest that have always been considered immune from fire because they are well, wetlands. It wouldn't explain fires starting months before "normal" fire season and burning out of control for 10 weeks. etc etc etc

el diablo

jackbhoy wrote: »

Take that rwnj, conspiracy theory bs elsewhere diablo. This isn't 4chan

Right wing conspiracy bs. :rolleyes: Paddy the leftie is surely the most gullible of them all. He'll blindly believe everything that's spewed at him by BBC, RTE etc. Arson and especially the banning of fire breaks by the eco-zombies are responsible for a large percentage of these bushfires in Australia.

Was man made climate change also responsible for the Black Thursday Bushfires in 1851?

Black Thursday bushfires
The Black Thursday bushfires were a devastating series of fires that swept the state of Victoria, Australia, on 6 February 1851. Twelve human lives were lost, along with one million sheep, thousands of cattle and countless native animals. "The temperature became torrid, and on the morning of the 6th of February 1851, the air which blew down from the north resembled the breath of a furnace. A fierce wind arose, gathering strength and velocity from hour to hour, until about noon it blew with th...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Thursday_bushfires

https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-07-16/federation-drought-analysis-finds-huge-ecosystem-losses/11312694

mandrake04

Most of the fires originated in areas that are mostly impossible to access on foot, the only way in would be air. So those would be started by natural causes like lighting rather than arson, the main cause of these fires is increased fuel load and decreased window of hazard reduction both due to a wet September east of the great divide. We can maybe attribute climate change as small factor, but more so drought which is not unusual to Australia and the Indian Ocean Dipole negative phase... this year a lot of westerly warm winds (If anyone has a white car in Sydney would have noticed a lot more red dust this spring) rather than colder southerly from the snowys. In short a lot of factors in complete recipe for a clusterfúck.

I’m not buying arson as a factor in this, they estimate between 1-3% of area burnt was arson related. The other 97% was good old nature.

el diablo

mandrake04 wrote: »

I’m not buying arson as a factor in this, they estimate between 1-3% of area burnt was arson related. The other 97% was good old nature.

......and very poor land management by local and federal government is largely responsible too.
The "man made climate change" narrative may be the biggest hoax perpetrated in the history of mankind.
How are we ever going to have a one world government without a global crisis that necessitates centralized authoritarian controls? Problem Reaction Solution.

AngryHippie

el diablo wrote: »

The "man made climate change" narrative may be the biggest hoax perpetrated in the history of mankind.

There have definitely been some impacts from human activity.
The hoax is those
ones carrying on like they have a solution.

jackbhoy

jackbhoy wrote: »

And even if arson was the chief cause, which it is not, that would just explain ignition of the fire. it wouldn't explain the subsequent scale, the massive tinder dry fuel-load that has caused these huge fires, the burning of wetlands and rain forest that have always been considered immune from fire because they are well, wetlands. It wouldn't explain fires starting months before "normal" fire season and burning out of control for 10 weeks. etc etc etc

I absolutely hate the "a mate of mine told me" type stories but, from three different people i know living in NSW, they blame the banning by the Green party for banning the cutting and burning of scrub land. This was common practice and left a barrier incase of bush fires.

I'm no expert, just saying what I have been told.

I have two cousins and a friend with kids there.

AngryHippie

Deleted User wrote: »

I absolutely hate the "a mate of mine told me" type stories but, from three different people i know living in NSW, they blame the banning by the Green party for banning the cutting and burning of scrub land. This was common practice and left a barrier incase of bush fires.

I'm no expert, just saying what I have been told.

I have two cousins and a friend with kids there.

Thats a common nonsense spread by National Party enthusiasts.
All the greens have been doing is advocating for environmental assessments prior to burning. Nothing to actually limit hazard reduction or fuel reduction burns.

Also they haven't been in or held the balance of power for 7 years now.
Its a lie, and a pretty sh!t one. Don't be afraid to ask them where that information has come from, they won't have any reliable sources, because there are none.

Friendly Jordies
This chap may be a nutter, but he is on the money

Michael West has painted a very accurate and very sinister picture of the Libs, Nationals, Labour and the Coal Lobby. Its so openly crooked, you wouldn't think it is true, but its all there. Widespread open collusion, corruption and conflicts of interest.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/author/michael/

The greens have fcuk all to do with any of it.

Noo

Its BS. The Greens don't have the power to ban anything.

mandrake04

Noo wrote: »

Its BS. The Greens don't have the power to ban anything.

That’s true in a federal and state government level.

But the Greens have infiltrated councils with a lot of the pro-tree preservation policies BS, I have about 12 large trees in my garden and want to remove 4 of them as they drop leaves in my pool and I have to apply to council to do so...luckily in my area the policy is starting to soften not because the greens diminished but because their front men and jerk-buddies labor councillors lost influence at a council level.

There was a case where a man cleared a lot of bush from around his house and the council fined him $50,000, it cost him a further $50K in costs but the 2009 vic fires hit and his house was the only one left standing in the area.

Greens are strong at council levels of government because people use them to stand up for NIMBY issues, but they wouldn’t vote for them for economic reasons at state or federal level.

When people have their house burn down and are blaming the greens, it’s greens at a council level where they lay the blame.

Peregrinus

[There are few or no Greens councillors in Australia. The Australian Greens do not contest local elections.]

mandrake04

Peregrinus wrote: »

The Australian Greens do not contest local elections.]

Don’t make me laugh at you ...again!!

https://greensoncouncil.org.au/councils/

tdf7187

mandrake04 wrote: »

That’s true in a federal and state government level.

But the Greens have infiltrated councils with a lot of the pro-tree preservation policies BS, I have about 12 large trees in my garden and want to remove 4 of them as they drop leaves in my pool and I have to apply to council to do so...luckily in my area the policy is starting to soften not because the greens diminished but because their front men and jerk-buddies labor councillors lost influence at a council level.

There was a case where a man cleared a lot of bush from around his house and the council fined him $50,000, it cost him a further $50K in costs but the 2009 vic fires hit and his house was the only one left standing in the area.

Greens are strong at council levels of government because people use them to stand up for NIMBY issues, but they wouldn’t vote for them for economic reasons at state or federal level.

When people have their house burn down and are blaming the greens, it’s greens at a council level where they lay the blame.

Yeah too right mate, someone should burn down those pesky trees, that’d solve it.

tdf7187

Noo wrote: »

Its BS. The Greens don't have the power to ban anything.

You say that, but can you prove that the Greens are not colluding with the trees to cause the fires? I heard the godamn Commies are in on it too.

mandrake04

tdf7187 wrote: »

So too many trees are to blame here.

Wow.

I didn’t say that, although the fuel load to blame is made up of bits of trees, leaves twigs etc. no one can argue with that.

I just pointed out that although the greens are not in the state or federal government it’s different when it comes to councils.

AngryHippie

tdf7187 wrote: »

So too many trees are to blame here.

Wow.

no.

Too many trees too close to your house will burn your house down if a bushfire comes through.
Any firefighter will tell you that.

We're not talking about chopping down forests. all that needs to happen in there is fuel reduction burning to reduce the intensity of the inevitable bushfires that will happen.
Lower intensity = slower spread and less damage

https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/prepare-your-property

hussey

The window for hazard reduction gets shorter and shorter each year
and here is RFS boss take on it
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-08/rfs-commissioner-says-hazard-reduction-burns-not-the-panacea/11850984

The current federal government have been in power 21/27 years
NSW past 9 years
So to say the greens have had any influence on this is laughable, just the nationals looking to shift blame.

Also LOL at the poster comparing current fires with one from 1851.

jackbhoy

el diablo wrote: »

Right wing conspiracy bs. :rolleyes: Paddy the leftie is surely the most gullible of them all. He'll blindly believe everything that's spewed at him by BBC, RTE etc. Arson and especially the banning of fire breaks by the eco-zombies are responsible for a large percentage of these bushfires in Australia.

Was man made climate change also responsible for the Black Thursday Bushfires in 1851?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Thursday_bushfires

https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-07-16/federation-drought-analysis-finds-huge-ecosystem-losses/11312694

Tedious strawman stuff El Diablo. Even Andrew Bolt is starting to admit climate change is real, albeit he seems to believe it will make the world greener and give us all nice lawns now.

Yes, bushfires did exist in the past, even big ones like 1851. They will get much worse, much more frequent in the future however.

If you want to single out the 1851 one you should apply the same cynicism to that event that you do to climate change today , question stuff! e.g. consider the population of the entirety of rural Vic was about same size as Longford is today - in such a sparsely populated area , with such limited resources there was effectively no defence, no fire breaks and no fire fighting so fires essentially burned uncontrollably for weeks, even months.

Given so few people in the areas impacted, estimates of total impacted acreage are also to be a taken with a big pinch of salt.

Finally, Vic had much much more wooded area then as it was pre the huge land clearing era that took place by following generations of pastoralists, therefore there was almost limitless amounts of interconnected fuel loads tinder dry and ready to burn.