SUNDAY December 1st

MaxBet

Not often I think 8/1 is a decent each way price but MIDNIGHT RUN in the Royal Bond is getting a bet at that

MaxBet

In the handicap hurdle , Ciel De Neige is the interesting one but not a bet at the price . I can’t figure out what they are at with CAMPEADOR but he’s priced big enough to take a chance on . PAKENS ROCK looks worthy of a point too under Puppy.
Off for a bit of Southampton and Watford , back to the nags later

Slattsy

What a card.

Backed Fakir D lto and was mighty impressed. But over 2m 4f? Hard to know even though he's getting weight, but I'd slightly favour Samcro at the this trip, one to watch.

Envoi Allen probably a good thing. And if they're thinking of the CH like some people believe they are, then he needs to win this well. Beat the 2nd fav in the bumper so no reason he'll turn the form on its head.

And looking forward to seeing Honeysuckle. Think she's the next Apples Jade! Hopefully she wins, I've been very impressed.

And word on the street is that the Mullins bumper horse is a bit special.

No bets at all for me, just a watching brief with a view to some Cheltenham pointers. May have a bottle of wine.

God bless everybody.

Andrew00

Fakir D'Doudaries has been backed off the boards

BumperD

MaxBet wrote: »

Not often I think 8/1 is a decent each way price but MIDNIGHT RUN in the Royal Bond is getting a bet at that

All over him. He was 16/1 on Friday but I missed it. I said I’d put one up for the supreme in March a few days ago it’s actually him. He’s 33/1. He ran in some very good races last season, if you watch the way he won his first, he quickened well going up the hill at Galway with you don’t often see, especially for a debutant. The form of his races has worked out and he was only beaten once to Envoi Allen so no shame in that. They reoppose tomorrow and while he will have to step up again, I think he will. He won really well at Cork and was slick at his hurdles. JOB spoke of him on one of the national hunt preview videos so you sit up when he mentions one that he wasn’t asked about. I just see him as a more speedier horse than the fav who I think uses a combo of speed and his long stride to good effect. This is the best novice hurdle either side of the pond this season and will shake up the ante post markets. 8/1 still great value IMO

MaxBet

1.00
Couldn’t bring myself to go ew on MIDNIGHT RUN so just the 1pt win bet @ 8/1 . This is a lovely horse , obviously up against it tomorrow but I was really taken by the way he beat a decent Mullins mare , Coolreevy lto .

3.10
PAKENS ROCK easily won a good ground 2m4f bumper under Derek O’Connor a year ago before running in behind Midnight Run and Envoi Allen at Navan .
Three hurdle runs around 2m4f followed before dropping to 2m and winning a Galway maiden (form nothing special) . A month later he won a novice hurdle there too , 11L ahead of Drop The Anchor (won nice Punchestown race nto) and Anything Will Do (won 2 on the bounce since , most recently had Poseidon back in 3rd at Punchestown who easily won a Limerick maiden on Friday) . Looks a fair 33/1 shot . 1pt win .

CAMPEADOR last won a hurdle 2 years ago (beating Ornua , Tully East , Forge Meadow ) before falling in the Morgiana . Three chase runs followed ,including an easy win over Roaring Bull - who I think is decent - at Fairyhouse before the switching back to hurdles in February of this year . The wheels appear to have come off in 4 runs since but he’s got too much class to leave him out of this at 33/1 . 0.5pt win .

Andrew00

Have a fair bet on Wave Of The Sea (12:30) and Fakir D'Doudaries in a double.

Really like that Midnight Run too he's a superb ew bet, Joseph said they didn't expect it to win LTO and that it needed the run. The form has already been franked too

BoldReason

Thought Lake Milan in the 2m handicap hurdle was a fair bet at around 9/1 you can get 1/5 the 4 9/1 with Boyles which is definitely a bet.

Heading on myself it's some card wasn't overly strong on to many. I also thought Fakir was the bet at 7/4 or so but didn't get on and think he is about right now.
Will probably back Cerberus in the juvenile. But not really a massive sign of 3yo hurdle races. So small bet.

Think I'll give AJ the benefit of the doubt in the hattons grace at the prices. Big fan of honeysuckle but I'd rather see her do it at the prices.

What a card though. Looking forward to it.

posturingpat

Dinard Rose in the first is worth an ew play I reckon. Similar level to the horses at the head of the market on the flat. Was beaten first time over hurdles but improved a tonne to win last time. Gets weight from all bar the big outsider of Cody's who looks to be there for a day out and Meade likes to send his decent ones to Fairyhouse.
I was going to watch the Fakir doudairies Samcro race but that's when I expected Samcro a shade of odds on, the drift might be too enticing to ignore.
Think I'll back apples Jade too, the scene of some of her best performances hopefully bring the real Aj back and if so Honeysuckle and the rest of them won't see which way she went.
Jessie's bumper horse is meant to be nice but I'd say that's a bumper full of smart horses.

HarshOstrich

posturingpat wrote: »

Dinard Rose in the first is worth an ew play I reckon. Similar level to the horses at the head of the market on the flat. Was beaten first time over hurdles but improved a tonne to win last time. Gets weight from all bar the big outsider of Cody's who looks to be there for a day out and Meade likes to send his decent ones to Fairyhouse.
I was going to watch the Fakir doudairies Samcro race but that's when I expected Samcro a shade of odds on, the drift might be too enticing to ignore.
Think I'll back apples Jade too, the scene of some of her best performances hopefully bring the real Aj back and if so Honeysuckle and the rest of them won't see which way she went.
Jessie's bumper horse is meant to be nice but I'd say that's a bumper full of smart horses.

Honeysuckle will laugh at apples jade tomorrow.

Envoi and Honeysuckle would win with me on their back.


Fakir v Samcro should be a beaut. I fancy Fakir.

posturingpat

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Honeysuckle will laugh at apples jade tomorrow.

Time will tell but I'll be very surprised if she does. She has it all to prove in with the big fish.

BoldReason

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Honeysuckle will laugh at apples jade tomorrow.

I like Honeysuckle I really do. But there is no way she should be a shorter price than AJ on known form. She is priced purely on potential and that is a dangerous game to be playing. Id probably have it more 2/1 AJ, 5/2 Honeysuckle myself.

HarshOstrich

BoldReason wrote: »

I like Honeysuckle I really do. But there is no way she should be a shorter price than AJ on known form. She is priced purely on potential and that is a dangerous game to be playing. Id probably have it more 2/1 AJ, 5/2 Honeysuckle myself.

On apples best form she should be fav but she hasn't ran to her best in the last 5 runs or so.
Imo she is on the decline and i would be surprised if bacardys isn't in front of her again here to prove her decline.

BoldReason

That's fair and I could certainly get behind Bacardys being over priced but I think on Honeysuckles best form she has to be better again to win this. The potential is there obviously but I just couldn't have her favourite.

She can win no doubt but the price wouldn't be for me.

CheltenhamJ

Articulum ew in the hcap hurdle for me

Panrich

Can someone explain how Burrows Saint is eligible for the Drinmore? I can only think it’s because his first win over fences was during this calendar year but that doesn’t make him a novice in the traditional sense.

redzerdrog

Panrich wrote: »

Can someone explain how Burrows Saint is eligible for the Drinmore? I can only think it’s because his first win over fences was during this calendar year but that doesn’t make him a novice in the traditional sense.

His first chase start came this year so must be that as he definitely won't be eligible for novice chases in the new year

Earendil

CheltenhamJ wrote: »

Articulum ew in the hcap hurdle for me

Yep, and Prince of Scars in the hc chase.

NaiveMelodies

Earendil wrote: »

Yep, and Prince of Scars in the hc chase.

Prince of Scars the standout for me too- missed the 20s yesterday


Morga in the 3.10 66s and 4 places will do me. Banking on top few not being progressive obviously.

CORMACREYN

Panrich wrote: »

Can someone explain how Burrows Saint is eligible for the Drinmore? I can only think it’s because his first win over fences was during this calendar year but that doesn’t make him a novice in the traditional sense.

If you win your first chase/hurdle as a novice between the end of February and Punchestown Festival you remain a novice until this meeting in Ireland. Not sure what the equivalent is in Britain. So this is the last day on which Burrows Saint can run as a novice.

RivetingRoger

Envoi Samcro Honeysuckle treble

HarshOstrich

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Envoi Samcro Honeysuckle treble

Agreed

Riquelme

Samcro will be doing well to beat Fakir today, although if he is what people think he is he should be beating him without a whole lot of bother.

IAMAMORON

Two for me at the prices.

1.00 Turnpike Trip @ 33/1 , it is not like Charles Byrnes to go for a Grade 1 unless he thought it had a chance. There would surely have been easier opportunities over Christmas etc?

2.05 Aherlow - I am glad I got 12/1 last night, around 17/2 now. Should be placed at least I think.

I am throwing a fiver on Matthew Smith's chaser as well, I hope it runs well for him and connections. Although if Samcro wins by a furlong I would not be surprised.

Riquelme

Ballymore and Supreme winners there potentially

IAMAMORON

Riquelme wrote: »

Ballymore and Supreme winners there potentially

I thought they jogged around in fairness, I would like to see the times. They were well bunched with 3 f to go, it looked like a sprint.

You would have to think the Ballymore for Envoi Allen. But I think you get better than 2/1 on the day.

HarshOstrich

Fakir supporters are blessed

TheMilkyPirate

I backed Fakir but I'm raging because that was shaping up to be a cracker of a finish.

Daraa

Fakir the better jumper today but think Samcro would have had it

IAMAMORON

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Fakir supporters are blessed

Jumping is the name of the game.

Riquelme

Fakir's jumping put him under pressure but Samcro was cruising. I've no doubt he'd have won that. Shame.

HarshOstrich

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Jumping is the name of the game.

Exactly.
Samcro the better horse tho
We know that now

Slattsy

Don't think Kennedy met any fence right on Samcro.

Joe_ Public

Would probably have taken another couple of lengths out of him over last, beautiful round of jumping all the way.

IAMAMORON

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Exactly.
Samcro the better horse tho
We know that now

I won't be backing him over fences ever again. That was the first time he had to jump a fence in anger and collapsed on landing. Not good enough. I have lost thousands on machines that couldn't jump a fence.

IAMAMORON

Slattsy wrote: »

Don't think Kennedy met any fence right on Samcro.

No way, Kennedy is one of the best. The horse is probably not a chaser.

Some horses are steering jobs, even over fences.

The winner is a lovely jumper, I am backing that one for the rest of the season. Laurina v Fakir D'oudaires that is the next race I want to see.

Panrich

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Would probably have taken another couple of lengths out of him over last, beautiful round of jumping all the way.

I think it was the fourth last or third last that drew a big gasp from all around the stands.

Although Samcro looked to be cruising, I’m not sure he’d have kept that up to the line. Fakir galloped on relentlessly.

HarshOstrich

IAMAMORON wrote: »

No way, Kennedy is one of the best. The horse is probably not a chaser.

Some horses are steering jobs, even over fences.

The winner is a lovely jumper, I am backing that one for the rest of the season. Laurina v Fakir D'oudaires that is the next race I want to see.

Fakir was a joy to watch but im concerned that samcro got level with him so easy haveing lost half a length or so at every fence and giving fakir 8 pounds.
If fakir is top top class i dont think samcro should have got to him

IAMAMORON

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Fakir was a joy to watch but im concerned that samcro got level with him so easy haveing lost half a length or so at every fence and giving fakir 8 pounds.
If fakir is top top class i dont think samcro should have got to him

I think Fakir will be great at 2 miles on shight ground. Samcro is a machine, he would beat anything, but it looks like he has jumping issues. Samcro might improve and learn, what worries me more is his pre race price, 7/4 was big enough for a horse of his quality. Did the stable know he couldn't jump?

BoldReason

Can't get over the price of this fav. She looks well in the paddock anyway.
AJ looks as good as she did for this race last year on paddock appearance so she will do for me at 7/2

posturingpat

She's proven herself at the top level now. Mightily impressive.

Father Hernandez

Honeysuckle extremely impressive

In a different league

BoldReason

Very impressive

Andrew00

Champion hurdle winner

Potentially the mare of a lifetime

NaiveMelodies

Champion Hurdle baby

STB.

No way they will run her in the Champion Hurdle.


Mares all the way. The jockey Mark O Hare bought her for 9,500 and sold her for 11 times that!

Brock Turnpike

Huge drift on Cromwell's one in the next. What's going on there?

Andrew00

Brock Turnpike wrote: »

Huge drift on Cromwell's one in the next. What's going on there?

Being layed out for a handicap down the line. Won't be trying today unfortunately

HarshOstrich

Brock Turnpike wrote: »

Huge drift on Cromwell's one in the next. What's going on there?

Wouldnt be surprised if ran well but more than likely will be pulled up and then hacks up at leopardstown in 4 weeks time.

Gavin "shels"

What a day of racing!