African swine fever

K.G.

Think this could have effects similar in scale to the bio fuel boom in 06 07 08 so just said i stick it up to get opinions. Could it affect the grain price

MickeyShtyles

K.G. wrote: »

Think this could have effects similar in scale to the bio fuel boom in 06 07 08 so just said i stick it up to get opinions. Could it affect the grain price

I follow a ‘pig farmer’ from Kerry who’s been talking about this since roughly May.
Unless it takes significant hold in Europe, is it gonna cause major issues?

Base price

K.G. wrote: »

Think this could have effects similar in scale to the bio fuel boom in 06 07 08 so just said i stick it up to get opinions. Could it affect the grain price

TBH I don't know what you mean about the bio fuel boom.

However, ASF (African Swine Fever) will affect World wide grain prices due to the high meal input levels used in the pig and poultry industries. It's also going to increase the price of meal for dairy/cattle farmers.
As the auld saying goes - one man's loss is another man's gain.

mr.stonewall

Base price wrote: »

TBH I don't know what you mean about the bio fuel boom.

However, ASF (African Swine Fever) will affect World wide grain prices due to the high meal input levels used in the pig and poultry industries. It's also going to increase the price of meal for dairy/cattle farmers.
As the auld saying goes - one man's loss is another man's gain.

If the world pig herd is reducing this should result less demand for grain and thus reduce grain price

Base price

mr.stonewall wrote: »

If the world pig herd is reducing this should result less demand for grain and thus reduce grain price

The Asian region pig herd has been decimated due to ASF however other World regions with piggeries have upscaled breeding in the last couple of years due to ASF. The same goes with poultry and duck production.

K.G.

Base price wrote: »

TBH I don't know what you mean about the bio fuel boom.

However, ASF (African Swine Fever) will affect World wide grain prices due to the high meal input levels used in the pig and poultry industries. It's also going to increase the price of meal for dairy/cattle farmers.
As the auld saying goes - one man's loss is another man's gain.

USA gov promoted biofuels im mid noughties that in combination with Chinese demand drove cerals mad

Gawddawggonnit

mr.stonewall wrote: »

If the world pig herd is reducing this should result less demand for grain and thus reduce grain price

A lot of grains are being produced at under cost of production already, do you really need them to be even cheaper?

Gawddawggonnit

Base price wrote: »

The Asian region pig herd has been decimated due to ASF however other World regions with piggeries have upscaled breeding in the last couple of years due to ASF. The same goes with poultry and duck production.

There’s so much poultry now being produced here that the factories are under pressure to process them. Some poultry houses are being kept idle for a few months between lots to try to let the processors catch up with the sheer numbers being produced. Processors are allowing a quick turnaround in new poultry houses because they’ve invested some of their own money into them and signed 15yr contracts. The houses that have no debt are the ones being held back, thus the older houses...

mr.stonewall

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

A lot of grains are being produced at under cost of production already, do you really need them to be even cheaper?

I'm just looking at what's being paid for ration. Will be exploring the possibility of taking grain from the tillage farmer going forward. Better margin for both of us

yosemitesam1

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

There’s so much poultry now being produced here that the factories are under pressure to process them. Some poultry houses are being kept idle for a few months between lots to try to let the processors catch up with the sheer numbers being produced. Processors are allowing a quick turnaround in new poultry houses because they’ve invested some of their own money into them and signed 15yr contracts. The houses that have no debt are the ones being held back, thus the older houses...

How quick can poultry production be expanded? Can hatcheries increase output rapidly if the sheds are there to be filled?

Mooooo

From social media anyway, things seem to have been fairly difficult grain wise in North America, dunno what the official figures are, winter planting conditions poor in Europe as well. Could be a lot of pressure on grain supplies

Bass Reeves

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

How quick can poultry production be expanded? Can hatcheries increase output rapidly if the sheds are there to be filled?

If the houses are there and have availability to produce product it's half the battle. Generally processing units only work 8-10hours/day. It may be possible to add extra shift and process longer. Upscaling breeding of chicks would be easy enough

_Brian

Is our bio security good enough to keep ASF out of Ireland or even Europe?

K.G.

Is it as significant an event as the media would have you belive.i know pig prices are at all time high but is it a big enough event to impact other sectors

Gawddawggonnit

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

How quick can poultry production be expanded? Can hatcheries increase output rapidly if the sheds are there to be filled?

Processing capacity seems to be the bottleneck now. Processors are working round the clock.
New sheds are going up all over.

Mooooo

_Brian wrote: »

Is our bio security good enough to keep ASF out of Ireland or even Europe?

It's in Europe afaik, wild boar part of spreading it I think

Base price

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

Processing capacity seems to be the bottleneck now. Processors are working round the clock.
New sheds are going up all over.

I know of three new entrants in the last year within a 10 mile radius.

jaymla627

_Brian wrote: »

Is our bio security good enough to keep ASF out of Ireland or even Europe?

It's in Europe already, confirmed cases in dead wild boar in Poland....

Base price

jaymla627 wrote: »

It's in Europe already, confirmed cases in dead wild boar in Poland....

https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/animalhealthwelfare/diseasecontrols/africanswinefever/UpdateonAfricanSwineFever29July230819.pdf