Cork North Central By-Election (November 2019)

dulpit

So we have a by-election coming up in Cork North Central to replace Billy Kelleher (FF) who became an MEP. The candidates that I can find are as follows:

• Fine Gael: Senator Colm Burke
• Fianna Fáil: Cllr. Padraig O’Sullivan
• Sinn Féin: Cllr. Thomas Gould
• Labour Party: Cllr. John Maher
• Green Party: Cllr. Oliver Moran
• Social Democrats: Sinéad Halpin
• Solidarity: Cllr. Fiona Ryan

Billy Kelleher topped the poll in 2016 with 27.9% of the poll, but is that a personal vote or a party vote? Mick Barry (Solidarity) was at 15.7%, Jonathan O'Brien (SF) was 12.2% and Dara Murphy (FG) got 10.3%. Sinn Féin and Fine Gael both ran 2 candidates in 2016, their combined first preference tally was 19.6% for Sinn Féin (the second candidate was Thomas Gould, he attracted 7.4%) and 17.7% for Fine Gael.

I don't see any clear front-runner here, I'm interested in what people think could happen here. It is probably a 3-way battle between FG, FF and SF, but I might be wrong there. What do people think?

nlrkjos

I don't go for this "green wave" bull, but that Oliver Moran fella has an outside chance here, seems like a good community worker, but my money is on Thomas Gould SF, very vocal on community issues and also has a big GAA presence which will help him

Weltsmertz

I'd say between Gould and Burke. Never heard of the FF fellow.

GoneHome

Weltsmertz wrote: »

Never heard of the FF fellow.

Padraig O'Sullivan, 35 year old secondary school teacher based in Glanmire (Billy Kelleher's area), topped the poll in the last two local elections, will pick up a lot of the younger vote as very involved in sport in the area.

In any case it's all irrelevant as there'll more likely than not be a General Election before they get round to the by-election.

Cork Trucker

GoneHome wrote: »

Padraig O'Sullivan, 35 year old secondary school teacher based in Glanmire (Billy Kelleher's area), topped the poll in the last two local elections, will pick up a lot of the younger vote as very involved in sport in the area.

In any case it's all irrelevant as there'll more likely than not be a General Election before they get round to the by-election.

General election is proposed for May 2020, these seats were vacated in May 2019, there’s something about bye elections having to be held within 6 months. Only Brian Cowen circumvented was that in 2010 I think

Brussels Sprout

Cork Trucker wrote: »

General election is proposed for May 2020, these seats were vacated in May 2019, there’s something about bye elections having to be held within 6 months. Only Brian Cowen circumvented was that in 2010 I think

Brian Cowen was trying to put off holding by-elections. Pierce Doherty took the government to court over it and won and as a result of that the 6-month rule is pretty much seen as law.

Keplar240B

"Solidarity" is a front organisation for the Trotskyist Socialist Party.

Cork Trucker

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Brian Cowen was trying to put off holding by-elections. Pierce Doherty took the government to court over it and won and as a result of that the 6-month rule is pretty much seen as law.

Bang on

dulpit

Keplar240B wrote: »

"Solidarity" is a front organisation for the Trotskyist Socialist Party.

Thanks. I assume everyone knows that already though, it's not a secret...

the beer revolu

dulpit wrote: »

Thanks. I assume everyone knows that already though, it's not a secret...

The left are left?
What next?

votecounts

Is this going ahead still? Can't see confirmation anywhere.

Cork Trucker

votecounts wrote: »

Is this going ahead still? Can't see confirmation anywhere.

sometime this month apparently.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Cork_North-Central_by-election

mikeym

Its sickening whats going on in the Dail over Td's claiming expenses fraudulently and other shady activities.

Once you get elected your on the gravy train.

dulpit

mikeym wrote: »

Its sickening whats going on in the Dail over Td's claiming expenses fraudulently and other shady activities.

Once you get elected your on the gravy train.

Based on current candidates, who would you suggest is best placed to avoid this happening?

Cork Trucker

Popped up on the twitter feed

https://twitter.com/maryloumcdonald/status/1191106420793626625?s=21

dulpit

Irish Times confirms election will be November 29th: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/byelections-to-fill-four-vacant-dáil-seats-set-for-november-29th-1.4072114

Interestingly they state that the Fianna Fáil candidate is the favourite here...

Cork Trucker

dulpit wrote: »

Irish Times confirms election will be November 29th: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/byelections-to-fill-four-vacant-dáil-seats-set-for-november-29th-1.4072114

Interestingly they state that the Fianna Fáil candidate is the favourite here...

He’ll get the Glanmire vote and that’s a huge area

mikeym

dulpit wrote: »

Based on current candidates, who would you suggest is best placed to avoid this happening?

Good question.

I wont say any names but im sure if your voting you will vote for the person who represents you best in Dail Eireann.

Brussels Sprout

dulpit wrote: »

So we have a by-election coming up in Cork North Central to replace Billy Kelleher (FF) who became an MEP. The candidates that I can find are as follows:

• Fine Gael: Senator Colm Burke
• Fianna Fáil: Cllr. Padraig O’Sullivan
• Sinn Féin: Cllr. Thomas Gould
• Labour Party: Cllr. John Maher
• Green Party: Cllr. Oliver Moran
• Social Democrats: Sinéad Halpin
• Solidarity: Cllr. Fiona Ryan

Couple of extra additions:

• Aontú: Finian Toomey
• Workers Party: James Coughlan

dulpit

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

[*]Workers Party: James Coughlan

No Ted Tynan?


Posters went up this morning (before the writ was moved :mad:) for Fiona Ryan...

Cork Trucker

Who’s going to call the result? I’ve seen a lot of bickering in the media with the SF candidate in recent days

Brussels Sprout

Cork Trucker wrote: »

Who’s going to call the result? I’ve seen a lot of bickering in the media with the SF candidate in recent days

FF did pretty well in the 2 local election constituencies getting 3 councillors. Given that by-elections rarely go for the government I think it'll be:

1. FF
2. SF
3. FG
4. GP

roundymac

Colm Burke.:eek:

Cork Trucker

roundymac wrote: »

Colm Burke.:eek:

He’s been a Cllr,MEP,Senator but never a TD is that correct? A solicitor by profession? Personally as he is affiliated to a government party I see this as unlikely. Having studied the area and a bit of history I would say an FF candidate but the chosen one is a relative unknown outside Glanmire it seems, the SF candidate is certainly bin the public eye a lot for a variety of issues and is a former GE candidate. They did poor in the local elections on the northside of the city this year but the then sitting cllr who was eliminated has a past so colourful I wouldn’t want him representing me were I a northside resident.

dulpit

Cork Trucker wrote: »

He’s been a Cllr,MEP,Senator but never a TD is that correct? A solicitor by profession? Personally as he is affiliated to a government party I see this as unlikely. Having studied the area and a bit of history I would say an FF candidate but the chosen one is a relative unknown outside Glanmire it seems, the SF candidate is certainly bin the public eye a lot for a variety of issues and is a former GE candidate. They did poor in the local elections on the northside of the city this year but the then sitting cllr who was eliminated has a past so colourful I wouldn’t want him representing me were I a northside resident.

RTE (and possibly Irish Times) podcasts this week that mentioned the by-election both went for the FF lad to win here. :rolleyes: Combination of Billy Kelleher's large vote, and he's well known in Glanmire.

Cork Trucker

dulpit wrote: »

RTE (and possibly Irish Times) podcasts this week that mentioned the by-election both went for the FF lad to win here. :rolleyes: Combination of Billy Kelleher's large vote, and he's well known in Glanmire.

If Billy Kelleher goes knocking on doors with him that might well help. Is O’Sullivan representing the Cobh/East Cork electoral area? It would be a be shift for him if f he were elected and I don’t recall hearing of him being elected to city council to f which Glanmire is now part of.

dulpit

RTE radio had a piece on This Week on the by-election here, worth a listen: https://www.rte.ie/radio/radioplayer/html5/#/radio1/21653268

Colm Burke comes across as a right spoofer...

Brussels Sprout

Lack of activity in this thread probably sums up the lack of interest in this election (also seems to be a foregone conclusion that FF are going to win the seat)

dulpit

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Lack of activity in this thread probably sums up the lack of interest in this election (also seems to be a foregone conclusion that FF are going to win the seat)

Dara Murphy seems to have put the kibosh into Colm Burke's chances I'd reckon.

What'll be more interesting here is what sort of numbers Labour, Greens, Sinn Féin & Soc Dems get to see how the next full election will go.

Cork Trucker

dulpit wrote: »

Dara Murphy

Did you see how obese he has become, jesus if there was ever a politician whose weight ballooned while in office it's his.

sportsfan90

People are bemoaning how Dara Murphy has gone missing over the past few years but he's that useless I honestly think we're better off without him there, even if it means we've been short a TD. Good riddance.

I tuned into the debate on Virgin TV last night as I wasn't overly familiar with some of the main candidates.

Solidarity and SF candidates did ok, nothing special it was pretty much what you hear from every one of their candidates. Neither will get elected.

FG and Green will be reasonably pleased. Burke was under a bit of pressure at times to answer about Dara Murphys absenteeism but I thought he batted it away reasonably well and said he's running on his own record.

FF wasn't overly impressive. I'd heard he's a good worker in his community and he may well be, but he wasn't very assertive last night.

Labour will probably be most pleased, Maher seems to be a good communicator from last nights showing. He'll be hoping to get in next May rather than this by-election I think.

I'm not expecting a very high turnout tomorrow. Looking at the odds, it looks like FF's to lose.
O'Sullivan (FF) - 1/3
Burke (FG) - 9/2
Gould (SF) - 12/1
Maher (Lab) - 14/1
Moran (Green) - 14/1
Halpin (SD) - 25/1
Kiely (HRRA) - 40/1
Ryan (Solidarity) - 40/1
Toomey (Aontu) - 66/1
Coughlan (Workers) - 66/1

Paul Lee

These politicians are doing an excellent job. They have one thing to do: Shut up and say what we tell you to say.

Now... We want you to screw your fellow Irish. Bring in ridiculous laws to shut them up and ruin the lives of their children. Ram taxes down their throats. Tie up the news with stories of how "incompetent" you are. Quote "scientific facts" that are "95% consensus" about the environment.

You'll never have to worry about where to find resources- All taken care of.

By the way, don't mess with us... We know how to shut you up pretty fast.

Any questions?.... No? Excellent!

Congratulations, you're our new boy/ girl/ whatever in the Dail.

Cork Trucker

Even with the low turnout i'd be surprised if O'Sullivan didn't get in, Burke, while second favourite can't have been helped by Dara Murphy, again another FG cock up during an election close enough to Maria Bailey, and SF seem to be neck and neck with the Green Party.

Paul Lee

Cork Trucker wrote: »

Even with the low turnout i'd be surprised if O'Sullivan didn't get in, Burke, while second favourite can't have been helped by Dara Murphy, again another FG cock up during an election close enough to Maria Bailey, and SF seem to be neck and neck with the Green Party.

Yeah. Well it really doesn't matter which of them gets in. They're all communists. Just different faces of the same hydra. European Unionistas.

Rotten and useless all. I really don't give a damn.

dulpit

Paul Lee wrote: »

Yeah. Well it really doesn't matter which of them gets in. They're all communists. Just different faces of the same hydra. European Unionistas.

the beer revolu

Paul Lee wrote: »

I really don't give a damn.

Unfortunately, that appears to not be true going by the teenage drivle you've posted.

dulpit

https://twitter.com/CNCTally/status/1200713726791430144

Early tallies. Looks like it'll be FF or FG, SF in mix still...

Cork Trucker

It’s FF’s to lose. The “Greenwave” didn’t carry over

https://twitter.com/cnctally/status/1200766471657467905?s=21

dulpit

All over, Padraig O'Sullivan takes seat. FG beaten into 3rd behind SF. Wonder if Dara Murphy had a part to play in that?

Seamai

dulpit wrote: »

All over, Padraig O'Sullivan takes seat. FG beaten into 3rd behind SF. Wonder if Dara Murphy had a part to play in that?

Dara Murphy has a lot of questions to answer. I grew up less than a kilometer from the guy and have had dealings with him, he's nothing but a spoofer and Colm Burke isn't a lot better, for someone who was an MEP and Lord Mayor of the city quite a few years back he has a very low profile outside his party.

Weltsmertz

So who'll be the candidates in the GE?
Will FF run one or two? If two who will be the second candidate with O'Sullivan.
Will FG run two. Realistically there is only one seat. If two will it be Burke and Julie.
Has Gould done enough to have two SF candidates? If so, could he beat O'Brien?
Do Lab or Greens have chance of a seat.
Will the largely absent Barry hold his seat?

sportsfan90

FF will run two I reckon. Possibly the same with FG presuming O'Leary still wants to run.

Jonathon O'Brien won't be too happy that Gould has polled well this time as he's now likely to be added to the ticket now aswell.

Mick Barry could be in trouble next May.

If I had to predict, I'd go with FF, FG, SF getting the top 3 spots and it could be very tight between Lab, Green and Mick Barry for the last seat.

Cork Trucker

Mick Barry is in trouble IMO.

Next election will be either 2 FF,1 FG, 1 Sinn Fein, 1 Lab. From history, when it was a 5 seater, they held 3 of the 5 seats, Billy Kelleher, Noel O'Flynn & Dan Wallace before it was reduced to 4 seats.

dulpit

Weltsmertz wrote: »

So who'll be the candidates in the GE?
Will FF run one or two? If two who will be the second candidate with O'Sullivan.

2. They should have run 2 last time out. Probably one of the city-based councillors - Tony Fitzgerald was keen, as was Ken O'Flynn.

Weltsmertz wrote: »

Will FG run two. Realistically there is only one seat. If two will it be Burke and Julie.

Julie O'Leary has already pulled out, so I guess they'll just run Burke on his own, they should get the 1 seat.

Weltsmertz wrote: »

Has Gould done enough to have two SF candidates? If so, could he beat O'Brien?

They ran 2 last time out (Gould got 7.4% & O'Brien got 12.2%). They'll probably run both again, but O'Brien will (I guess) take it.

Weltsmertz wrote: »

Do Lab or Greens have chance of a seat.

You would image so, Labour look like they are in with a shout of last seat.

Weltsmertz wrote: »

Will the largely absent Barry hold his seat?

Doubt it.