Saturday 14th September

IAMAMORON

I have to admit there is probably too much racing , I am getting a headache, decisions decisions decisions.

St Leger

At the prices I am going for Il Paradiso. I would have preferred to see Sir Dragonet run in the Arc , he might still do so. His price is too skimpy I get the feeling he is a good heavy ground horse who actually won't stay, it looked like he didn't stay at Epsom, he led for a furlong and got caught. Il Pardiso for me. I also couldn't stop anyone backing Dashing Willoughby at the prices. He was mooted by Balding at the start of the year if I remember correctly, he won at Ascot which would have been the plan and this could easily still be the plan also.

Champions Stakes

This race is has always been won by a same season group 1 winner. That being the case there are only 3 possible winners. Magical, AVD and Deirdre. I don't fancy any of these however. I am going for Madhmoon who I think could just be a course specialist. The 10 f's works well for a horse that can run the bend well and finish with pace up the hill. I think it will also suit Headman, but I am siding with Madhmoon. I said before I think he probably a really good Group 2 horse, I hope I am wrong.

Matron

I have gone for Iridessa at the prices. I have always backed her and she owes me nothing, 12/1 will have me in the pub until Monday, at the very least.

supremenovice

a throw away fiver treble at Leopardstown for me:

Deirdre - The Matron Stakes
Iridessa - The Champion Stakes
Buckhurst - Group 3

The Tetrarch

English St Leger
Sir Dragonet at 3.7
The great Nick Mordin did a bit of St Leger analysis years ago and found that horses that ran over 1m 6f before the race never won it.
That leaves Logician and Sir Dragonet (and possible Technician won ran over 13f 61y).

Logician has run in a maiden, novice, handicap, Group 2. His official rating is 115 (or 101 in his last race).
He must be favourite because he has run four times and won four times. He "could be anything" but I think he is a paper tiger.
Sir Dragonet had run in a maiden, Group 3, Group 1, Group 3. Official rating 117. Beaten less than a length in the English Derby.
Technician's top level is Group 3. Official rating 109.

Champion Stakes
Anthony van Dyck at 14s is a bit of value.
I was not impressed by his English Derby win.
However, I analysed all the runners in the Derby field and found he had run the fastest furlongs before the race (over 7f as a 2yo) (i.e. not individual furlongs but race time / race distance).
I think 8f or 10f should suit him better than 12f.
The going is good at Leopardstown, there is a bend that favours faster horses, the field is good not great.

Matron Stakes
I have a small bet on Skitter Skatter at 16, such a nice name.
The plan is to beat them with pace over the last 50 yards. :rolleyes:

The Mig

Madhmoon bet of the day for me

IAMAMORON

Jamie Spencer was down for 4 rides at Chester today. He has been replaced by Andrew Mullan in the first and his other 3 rides are all now non-runners.

Did anyone hear anything about that, it sounds a bit odd? Has he gone anywhere else?

The Mig

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Jamie Spencer was down for 4 rides at Chester today. He has been replaced by Andrew Mullan in the first and his other 3 rides are all now non-runners.

Did anyone hear anything about that, it sounds a bit odd? Has he gone anywhere else?

Woodbine tonight for Charlie Appleby. Rides Old Persian in the northern dancer

chinguetti

Am I right in seeing the tv listings that Virgin Media One aren't showing the Leger from Doncaster? If so, very daft in my mind.

SonOfGoat

2.35 Bath, Mac Mccarthy, around 2/1. Absolute cert. Wins as easy as likes.!

munster87

SonOfGoat wrote: »

2.35 Bath, Mac Mccarthy, around 2/1. Absolute cert. Wins as easy as likes.!

Easy win for Top Buck. Mac McCarthy last of the 4 runners!

BumperD

SonOfGoat wrote: »

2.35 Bath, Mac Mccarthy, around 2/1. Absolute cert. Wins as easy as likes.!

Are you a bookie?

Dr. Bre

Anyone know where I can watch replay of today’s races ? YouTube? I’m out all day and forgot to tape lol

IAMAMORON

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Anyone know where I can watch replay of today’s races ? YouTube? I’m out all day and forgot to tape lol

Racing TV website. RTE player. Virgin Media Player.

robbiezero

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Racing TV website. RTE player. Virgin Media Player.

Don't think it is on Virgin Media at all today?

tryfix

Got distracted today, so just did a double on Logician and Magical.

votecounts

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Anyone know where I can watch replay of today’s races ? YouTube? I’m out all day and forgot to tape lol

At the races website once you're registered

NeonWolf

SonOfGoat wrote: »

2.35 Bath, Mac Mccarthy, around 2/1. Absolute cert. Wins as easy as likes.!

You should be banned from the forum for talking in such absolutes all the time .
You are a bad influence on younger/impressionable posters.

You havnt contravened any rules as such but you’re a joke of a poster who no one takes seriously

The fact that you continue to post the tripe on a daily basis is indicative of your delusion or malevolence .

IAMAMORON

robbiezero wrote: »

Don't think it is on Virgin Media at all today?

Your quite right , my bad.

Morgans

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Anyone know where I can watch replay of today’s races ? YouTube? I’m out all day and forgot to tape lol

Sporting life website is the first place I use.

robbiezero

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Your quite right , my bad.

Anyone know what the story is with it? Very annoying.

IAMAMORON

robbiezero wrote: »

Anyone know what the story is with it? Very annoying.

They might want to offer an alternative given RTE are showing the races also?

I have no idea if that is contract or otherwise to be honest. But the producers must think they can sell more advertising to people who watch Cathphrase, The Chase or Peter fúcking Andre's 60 minutes makeover... what the fúck does that wanker need a makeover for, he nails models for a living?

Francie Barrett

Class from Dettori

BumperD

Class from Logician

votecounts

Class ride alright from Dettori

krustydoyle

Murphy would want to forget that ride in a hurry.. No luck at all

Andrew00

Her day in the sun

tryfix

Andrew00 wrote: »

Her day in the sun

She looked sharper today than she has previously ( woohoo )

Would love to see the 2nd Magic Wand get a G1 win before she retires.

IAMAMORON

YEH BABY

BumperD

krustydoyle wrote: »

Murphy would want to forget that ride in a hurry.. No luck at all

Yeah went the brave mans route but got no room, race was over once her pulled her out she flew home

The Tetrarch

BumperD wrote: »

race was over once her pulled her out she flew home

That is the Japanese style.
You see it in the Arc almost every year from the Japanese entry, out the back for no reason, take the long route on the outside around a wall of horses, look good, but fail.

BumperD

I’d say the japs who stayed up late were stabbing their eyes with chopsticks after watching it

Morgans

The Tetrarch wrote: »

That is the Japanese style.
You see it in the Arc almost every year from the Japanese entry, out the back for no reason, take the long route on the outside around a wall of horses, look good, but fail.

Except today he didnt do that. He went inside when he could have come wide. And it was Oisin Murphy and not Yutaka Take. I dont think she would have won in any case. Flattered, but ultimately had time to get closer but was still 3l down at the line.

The Tetrarch

Morgans wrote: »

Except today he didnt do that. He went inside when he could have come wide. And it was Oisin Murphy and not Yutaka Take. I dont think she would have won in any case. Flattered, but ultimately had time to get closer but was still 3l down at the line.

She is a Japanese trained horse and these are extracts from the "in running" comments for her eleven races in 2018, 2019.

Held up towards rear, 7th halfway,
held up in last trio
Chased leader for 1f, in touch in midfield after
Held up
Settled in rear,
Raced towards rear of mid-division
Towards rear of midfield
Held up in rear,
Slightly outpaced early, in final pair,
Mid-division
Held up towards rear of midfield


There is a common thread.
Perhaps she has no pace to hold a position, but she seems to have plenty of pace. My opinion is she was trained to sit in rear and come with a run "showboating" style.

Morgans

A hold up horse is held up.

It doesn't mean that there are no front runners in Japan?

Deirdre was three lengths down with 2f to run yesterday. Whatever the tendency for Japanese horses to be deep closers (Isn't really backed up and has been a feature of commentary on Japanese horses since White Muzzle's arc), it wasnt the case yesterday.

The Tetrarch

Morgans wrote: »

A hold up horse is held up.

It doesn't mean that there are no front runners in Japan?

Deirdre was three lengths down with 2f to run yesterday. Whatever the tendency for Japanese horses to be deep closers (Isn't really backed up and has been a feature of commentary on Japanese horses since White Muzzle's arc), it wasnt the case yesterday.

"Held up towards rear, 7th halfway, going well but no room behind horses in 8th on inner over 2f out, taken to outer entering final furlong and ridden, strong run to go 4th close home, nearest finish"

In an eight runner field.

Morgans

Some of us watched the race. It really sounds like you didnt. Or have any awareness of her form beforehand. The attached file is from 2f out, where Deirdre is in 8th but is no more than 3l off the leader. Didnt get a clear run from there. The exact opposite of what you are claiming is closer to the truth - had he taken the stereotypical but wrong approach of coming wide and late, she would have had a clear run.

The Tetrarch

Well I did list the "in running" comments of all her 2018 and 2019 races so had an idea of her form beforehand.
Running at the back of the field around a bend and expecting a clear run you get what she got, nor a clear run, and is "unlucky".
Of course I watched the race. I had a bet on Anthony van Dyck.

Morgans

You looked up the form after the race to point score in an online discussion. Had you watched how she ran at Goodwood last time or even watched the race on Saturday, you'd have a stronger justification to carry on the debate. Deirdre was unlucky not to be second I think.

The Tetrarch

The Tetrarch wrote: »

Of course I watched the race.

It would help if you read my posts.
Yes, I watched the race at Goodwood live. Was the Goodwod race she won top class? The favourite finished last beaten 48 lengths. You talk about luck. Was Deirdre lucky at Goodwood?
Deirdre can run again and prove her merit. There are plenty of races on Arc weekend.

I find that when Japanese horses run in European races their fans do not accept reality. They do not accept what actually happened.

When Deep Impact was third in the Arc (imo failed to stay) and was subsequently disqualified for drugs in his system you find TODAY on the JBIS website on Deep Impact's Arc run "FAIL TO FINISH".
When Orfevre was beaten by Solemia in the Arc I was told that Orfevre passed Solemia after the post.
When Saxon Warrior was odds on for the English Derby I said on Betfair that his sire Deep Impact was not a proven source of stamina. Uproar. One poster abused me with a string of four letter words.
I had listed all Deep Impact's European runners and found that almost all were low class, and his Racing Post stamina index was based on only a dozen runners.
I listed all the winning distance of all Deep Impact's other runners, Japan and elsewhere, and found the AWD was a good bit less than European staying sires, if I remember correctly about 9.6f.
It was pointed out to me in a condescending manner, a bit like your posts, that Deep Impact had actually won over two miles. But that was in Japan, in a race restricted to Japanese runners. One of them must win, but that does not make it a stayer. It was also pointed out to me that a Japanese horse holds the world record for two miles. Again I said it was on a Japanese track restricted to local runners.
I looked at the track profiles of the top seven(?) Japanese tracks. They are pancake flat and oval. One track has a rise and fall over the entire track of about half a metre.
Invariably the races are run on what we would consider very firm ground. One 12f race run in 2m 24s, what we would consider incredibly fast, had a going description of soft.

Perhaps I am wrong but Agnes World, A Shin Hikari, Deirdre are the three Japanese trained winners of European races. Are there more? Many have tried.
A Shin Hikari won a Group 1 at Chantilly by 10 lengths, next race was 6th of 6 beaten 5 lengths at Ascot, then 12th of 15 (Tokyo), 10th of 12 (Hong Kong). Very strange.

The racetrack is the place to make the comments.

RoyalAcademy2

Any idea what the plan for Deirdre might be now?

The Tetrarch

RoyalAcademy2 wrote: »

Any idea what the plan for Deirdre might be now?

Yes.
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058012573

supremenovice

The Tetrarch wrote: »

It would help if you read my posts.
Yes, I watched the race at Goodwood live. Was the Goodwod race she won top class? The favourite finished last beaten 48 lengths. You talk about luck. Was Deirdre lucky at Goodwood?
Deirdre can run again and prove her merit. There are plenty of races on Arc weekend.

I find that when Japanese horses run in European races their fans do not accept reality. They do not accept what actually happened.

When Deep Impact was third in the Arc (imo failed to stay) and was subsequently disqualified for drugs in his system you find TODAY on the JBIS website on Deep Impact's Arc run "FAIL TO FINISH".
When Orfevre was beaten by Solemia in the Arc I was told that Orfevre passed Solemia after the post.
When Saxon Warrior was odds on for the English Derby I said on Betfair that his sire Deep Impact was not a proven source of stamina. Uproar. One poster abused me with a string of four letter words.
I had listed all Deep Impact's European runners and found that almost all were low class, and his Racing Post stamina index was based on only a dozen runners.
I listed all the winning distance of all Deep Impact's other runners, Japan and elsewhere, and found the AWD was a good bit less than European staying sires, if I remember correctly about 9.6f.
It was pointed out to me in a condescending manner, a bit like your posts, that Deep Impact had actually won over two miles. But that was in Japan, in a race restricted to Japanese runners. One of them must win, but that does not make it a stayer. It was also pointed out to me that a Japanese horse holds the world record for two miles. Again I said it was on a Japanese track restricted to local runners.
I looked at the track profiles of the top seven(?) Japanese tracks. They are pancake flat and oval. One track has a rise and fall over the entire track of about half a metre.
Invariably the races are run on what we would consider very firm ground. One 12f race run in 2m 24s, what we would consider incredibly fast, had a going description of soft.

Perhaps I am wrong but Agnes World, A Shin Hikari, Deirdre are the three Japanese trained winners of European races. Are there more? Many have tried.
A Shin Hikari won a Group 1 at Chantilly by 10 lengths, next race was 6th of 6 beaten 5 lengths at Ascot, then 12th of 15 (Tokyo), 10th of 12 (Hong Kong). Very strange.

The racetrack is the place to make the comments.

I was considering backing a Japanese horse in the Arc until I read that. I've changed my mind.

Morgans

The Tetrarch wrote: »

It would help if you read my posts.
Yes, I watched the race at Goodwood live. Was the Goodwod race she won top class? The favourite finished last beaten 48 lengths. You talk about luck. Was Deirdre lucky at Goodwood?
Deirdre can run again and prove her merit. There are plenty of races on Arc weekend.

I find that when Japanese horses run in European races their fans do not accept reality. They do not accept what actually happened.

When Deep Impact was third in the Arc (imo failed to stay) and was subsequently disqualified for drugs in his system you find TODAY on the JBIS website on Deep Impact's Arc run "FAIL TO FINISH".
When Orfevre was beaten by Solemia in the Arc I was told that Orfevre passed Solemia after the post.
When Saxon Warrior was odds on for the English Derby I said on Betfair that his sire Deep Impact was not a proven source of stamina. Uproar. One poster abused me with a string of four letter words.
I had listed all Deep Impact's European runners and found that almost all were low class, and his Racing Post stamina index was based on only a dozen runners.
I listed all the winning distance of all Deep Impact's other runners, Japan and elsewhere, and found the AWD was a good bit less than European staying sires, if I remember correctly about 9.6f.
It was pointed out to me in a condescending manner, a bit like your posts, that Deep Impact had actually won over two miles. But that was in Japan, in a race restricted to Japanese runners. One of them must win, but that does not make it a stayer. It was also pointed out to me that a Japanese horse holds the world record for two miles. Again I said it was on a Japanese track restricted to local runners.
I looked at the track profiles of the top seven(?) Japanese tracks. They are pancake flat and oval. One track has a rise and fall over the entire track of about half a metre.
Invariably the races are run on what we would consider very firm ground. One 12f race run in 2m 24s, what we would consider incredibly fast, had a going description of soft.

Perhaps I am wrong but Agnes World, A Shin Hikari, Deirdre are the three Japanese trained winners of European races. Are there more? Many have tried.
A Shin Hikari won a Group 1 at Chantilly by 10 lengths, next race was 6th of 6 beaten 5 lengths at Ascot, then 12th of 15 (Tokyo), 10th of 12 (Hong Kong). Very strange.

The racetrack is the place to make the comments.

I couldn't be bothered to go through this nonsense. I was tempted but I'd start by using Hermosa - a horse who clearly was pulled up as the basis for Deirdre's Goodwood run. It's not that you said "Form that was devalued due to the poor run of the favourite" - I backed the second and Hermosa and Frankie went too quick. Hermosa was broken and Deirdre picked up the pieces. However you just read the form and say "the favourite was beaten 48l". Can you just assume that everyone with a brain can read the racing post formline?

Deep Impact may or may not have stayed. He was positioned third throughout.
Orfevre if anything came too soon against Solemia. El Condor Pasa, if ridden differently could have beaten Montjeu but went too soon and reeled in late on.

None of which backs up your nonsense statement which I responded.

That is the Japanese style.
You see it in the Arc almost every year from the Japanese entry, out the back for no reason, take the long route on the outside around a wall of horses, look good, but fail.

You cant point to one instance. The idea that the nonsense above backs up your point is ridiculous. A Shin Hikara, Agnes World, Saxon Warrior??? is all irrelevant. Continue twaddling on though.

Also, you haven't discussed White Muzzle, where all the japanese nonsense started - probably because he wasnt trained in Japan.

The Tetrarch

supremenovice wrote: »

I was considering backing a Japanese horse in the Arc until I read that. I've changed my mind.

This post would probably be better suited to a Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe thread.

The Japanese will win the Arc in the future.
Anyone can win the race with the right horse and right preparation.
What made me wary was a Japanese owner in the last few years saying he wanted to win the Arc with a horse that was Japanese bred, owned, trained, ridden.
The French have a sensible approach. They identify a horse that might win the Arc, win races with it early in the season, give it a break of a few months, run it in a prep race before the Arc, and go to the Arc with a fresh horse.

As I posted on the forum before the draw is very important in the Arc at Longchamp, more so on quick ground.
That is the reason I never bet antepost on the Arc. I once bet IRP 715 and the ground changed in a week from soft to firm.

I am picking this data sample to prove my point, but in the 19 fastest Arcs the winner was drawn as follows (I have 46 years draw data).
Drawn 1 (one winner); 2 (two winners); 3 (two wins); 4 (two wins); 5 (one wine); 6 (five wins); 7 (three wins); 8, 10, 14 (one win each).
The win from draw 14 was Dettori on Golden Horn when the jockey on Treve set a very slow pace allowing Dettori to move up the outside of the field without effort and take a position at the front.
A little oddity in the results is five horses drawn 14 and three horses drawn 15 have won i.e. the last horse in the 14 runner stall machine 1, and the first horse in stall machine 2 - they have more racing room as there is always a gap between stall machines for the tyres.

Longchamp is clay soil, hard and cracked in dry weather and very fast.
It is the fast pace on hard ground on a turning track that keeps the horses drawn wide at the back of the field, and in the usual 18 runner field running two abreast on the rail, the backmarkers could be in the ninth group (of two) and ten or more lengths behind the leader coming into the straight.

If Longchamp is soft or heavy it is very heavy, as clay soil is sticky like glue.
It takes a real stayer to win on heavy.
If you go to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Wiki page and sort the winners by winning time you will see that Motrico won in 1930 and 1932 in the two slowest times 2:44+. That is not chance. He was a heavy ground horse.

Now Japanese horses almost always run on what we would consider firm or hard ground.
If it comes up European soft or European heavy in the Arc they run on a surface not suited to them.
If Enable is drawn wide, 16, 17, 18 or is in the inner stalls machine in 11, 12, 13 (in France they hold 14, Epsom is 10, York 20) and the ground is fast then she could easily be beaten by circumstances.

Perhaps the most sensible Japanese choice to contest the Arc was El Condor Pasa, second to Montjeu in 1999 in the time of 2:38.5, 43rd fastest of the 46 years I have in my Arc draw records (i.e. really slow).
El Condor Pasa had an interesting pedigree. His Japanese owner was a pedigree expert who sent an agent to Ireland to buy the dam Saddlers Gal (nine runs, best performance 5th of 6, earnings nil).
He then bred her to Kingmambo to get the three full siblings (Special x2, Lisadell) in the El Condor Pasa pedigree.

tryfix

The Tetrarch wrote: »

It would help if you read my posts.
Yes, I watched the race at Goodwood live. Was the Goodwod race she won top class? The favourite finished last beaten 48 lengths. You talk about luck. Was Deirdre lucky at Goodwood?
Deirdre can run again and prove her merit. There are plenty of races on Arc weekend.

I find that when Japanese horses run in European races their fans do not accept reality. They do not accept what actually happened.

When Deep Impact was third in the Arc (imo failed to stay) and was subsequently disqualified for drugs in his system you find TODAY on the JBIS website on Deep Impact's Arc run "FAIL TO FINISH".
When Orfevre was beaten by Solemia in the Arc I was told that Orfevre passed Solemia after the post.
When Saxon Warrior was odds on for the English Derby I said on Betfair that his sire Deep Impact was not a proven source of stamina. Uproar. One poster abused me with a string of four letter words.
I had listed all Deep Impact's European runners and found that almost all were low class, and his Racing Post stamina index was based on only a dozen runners.
I listed all the winning distance of all Deep Impact's other runners, Japan and elsewhere, and found the AWD was a good bit less than European staying sires, if I remember correctly about 9.6f.
It was pointed out to me in a condescending manner, a bit like your posts, that Deep Impact had actually won over two miles. But that was in Japan, in a race restricted to Japanese runners. One of them must win, but that does not make it a stayer. It was also pointed out to me that a Japanese horse holds the world record for two miles. Again I said it was on a Japanese track restricted to local runners.
I looked at the track profiles of the top seven(?) Japanese tracks. They are pancake flat and oval. One track has a rise and fall over the entire track of about half a metre.
Invariably the races are run on what we would consider very firm ground. One 12f race run in 2m 24s, what we would consider incredibly fast, had a going description of soft.

Perhaps I am wrong but Agnes World, A Shin Hikari, Deirdre are the three Japanese trained winners of European races. Are there more? Many have tried.
A Shin Hikari won a Group 1 at Chantilly by 10 lengths, next race was 6th of 6 beaten 5 lengths at Ascot, then 12th of 15 (Tokyo), 10th of 12 (Hong Kong). Very strange.

The racetrack is the place to make the comments.

Perhaps the over dependence on the Deep Impact/Sunday Silence line in recent times has stymied the truly excellent Japanese commitment to buying stallions that were the best 12f runners from Europe that they could pry from European hands. Horses such as Arc winners Tony Bin, Carrol House, Dancing Brave, Workforce and other top 12f horses such as Harbinger, Workforce, White Muzzle, led a wave of unfashionable stallions who the Japanese used for the purpose of introducing 12f stamina to Japan.

What happened to that influence? They don't seem to have bought much into the all conquering Galileo bloodline either. Although the failed Galileo stallion Cape Blanco has ended up in Japan, he's not breed shaping material. Recently the Japanese acquired Coolmore's Declaration Of War who is an excellent 10f stallion but definitely not a 12f + stamina influence.