The future - speculation

tjhook

I've been idly thinking about the future of the car in this country. It looks like electricity will be the future. Thinking ahead, maybe 10-20 years, what's a realistic or even semi-realistic target for the whole area? Where is it heading towards and what type of experience can people expect?

Reading (some of!) the "Hogging a chargepoint" thread, it looks to me that we're not quite there yet for fully electric cars. It's agonisingly close, even adequate for many people if they can plan their movements, but not quite ready for the wholesale dropping of petrol/diesel engines. It reminds me of those early CFL bulbs. More efficient but expensive to buy and not as convenient as what came before; more of a stopgap before technology allowed it to become much better than the old inefficient standard.

I assume the ideal would be for the vast majority of cars to be fully electric. This would mean houses having one, maybe two charge points. Where I live, a good number of houses don't have sufficient driveway space for two cars, so you see them parked anywhere. These households would need to plan on their cars taking turns in their driveways to charge, or rethink their need for multiple cars. Maybe we'll see fewer cars parked on every available bit of kerb!

Public charge points - this seems to generate a lot of heat with drivers. It's a deficiency of the current infrastructure, and maybe the current technology itself. Is it realistic to imagine carparks having a charge point for every parking space? Maybe as technology improves and battery capacity increases, public charge points may disappear like public phone boxes did. Instead, perhaps people will largely use private charge points at home/work, and petrol stations will convert to "charge stations" for those in need, e.g. on longer journies? Or maybe the opposite - the "petrol stations", although no longer selling petrol, will obtain a license to provide charging facilities in car parks, and since that's how they make their profit, the supply will rise to meet demand?

I can imagine the current cable-based charging system disappearing, replaced by something else - maybe not wireless charging (inefficient), but a system that causes the car to make contact with the charger or vice versa, without the need for the user to do anything. So from the user's perspective, actually easier than filling a car with petrol.

Presumably the state will take in far less tax from fuel and motor tax. They can re-balance the motor tax so the overall tax take remains high. Likewise for VRT. Will the driver see lower overall motoring taxes due to not needing petrol/diesel? Or will the state put more levies on electricity? Maybe a separate meter on private charge points, with higher electricity unit prices?

I still own a petrol car so my speculation above is pretty uninformed, but I'd be interested to hear other opinions on where it's all going.

homer911

Car ownership is going to drop and car and ride sharing will become more popular. Perhaps self-driving cars will be the norm - even now it seems that the younger generations are less likely to be car drivers, with less interest in doing a driving test

zilog_jones

Yes, the key thing that many motorists don't realise is that younger generations who live in urban environments largely do not care about car ownership. Public transport needs to improve, also ride sharing and car sharing will increase in popularity. Car sharing can take the difficulties of charging EVs when you don't have a private parking space out of the equation.

The current public charging issues can easily be resolved by introducing fees for charging, and penalising those who go over a set time limit or leave their car plugged in after charging has completed.

NIMAN

The latest survey/study showed that the average distance traveller per week in Ireland was 318km.

This includes weekends. So on average Irish drivers drive just over 45km per day.

Even old secondhand EVs can handle that without too much hassle, and the newer ones blow it away and could run for nearly one week on a single charge.

Its the mindset that has to change.

Admittedly, some people may drive much larger distance, but their numbers would be low. People like that would simply have to remain using ICE cars.
And of course some people have no ability to have a home charger, so the Gov will have to look into how this issue will be addressed, be it insisting that all apartment blocks must have a certain number of chargers per car park.

zilog_jones

According to the 2016 Census, the average distance to work is 15 km, although that is the straight line measurement. That's with the range of most PHEVs, for those not ready to make the full commitment yet.

NIMAN

zilog_jones wrote: »

According to the 2016 Census, the average distance to work is 15 km, although that is the straight line measurement. That's with the range of most PHEVs, for those not ready to make the full commitment yet.

To be fair, sales are steadily rising on those, and even EVs are starting to sell better.

But its still a small amount.

Patser

Recently I read a prediction somewhere that sounds very plausible - since most of the technology currently exists just needs to be built or legalized- but:

In the future no one will own a car, they'll simply be registered on a car share app. Cars will be self driving and electric but able to charge wirelessly above pads in the ground.

If you need transport, you'll access the app pretty much like you would for an Uber now, a self driving car located in a central garage nearby will come pick you up, drive you wherever and then head to next nearest garage with charging to wait for next call. Staff there will also routinely clean and maintain car.

Benefit is it's far more efficient to have a shared car in use most of the day, as opposed to current idea where will all have our own cars, sitting outside work or house 90% of day.

nsi423

Patser wrote: »

In the future no one will own a car, they'll simply be registered on a car share app. Cars will be self driving and electric but able to charge wirelessly above pads in the ground.

Ya I think this is a realistic scenario. The OP mentioned a 10 to 20 year timeline. Self diving tech is a bit away yet, but in 20 years it will be sorted. Sure some people will still want to drive cars - some people still ride horses! But mostly enthusiasts letting off steam at the weekends.

In that scenario, we won't care what powers the cars as long as they are at least 'clean' or better yet 'sustainable'

Mike9832

Patser wrote: »

Recently I read a prediction somewhere that sounds very plausible - since most of the technology currently exists just needs to be built or legalized- but:

In the future no one will own a car, they'll simply be registered on a car share app. Cars will be self driving and electric but able to charge wirelessly above pads in the ground.

If you need transport, you'll access the app pretty much like you would for an Uber now, a self driving car located in a central garage nearby will come pick you up, drive you wherever and then head to next nearest garage with charging to wait for next call. Staff there will also routinely clean and maintain car.

Benefit is it's far more efficient to have a shared car in use most of the day, as opposed to current idea where will all have our own cars, sitting outside work or house 90% of day.

If we reach AI that can do self driving, it wont be roads those cars will be on

Big empty sky up there

Anyone born before 2000 won't have to worry about it imo

We can tear up those roads and plant trees etc

We need a proper underground public transport system, we need to build sky scrapers in Dublin, 100+ stories, we need to remove this 8 story limit it's a joke in this day and age.

We need to link our Industrial estates via proper rail, not crap slow tram like the Luas.

We need to upgrade our rail network + electrify our railways, it's not hard, we're a small Island !

future, anyone's guess !

Future towns and Cities need to be built with the primary focus on Public transport. Any future towns built must have Rail links.

Efitz2019

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We need a proper underground public transport system, we need to build sky scrapers in Dublin, 100+ stories, we need to remove this 8 story limit it's a joke in this day and age.

We need to link our Industrial estates via proper rail, not crap slow tram like the Luas.

We need to upgrade our rail network + electrify our railways, it's not hard, we're a small Island !

future, anyone's guess !

Future towns and Cities need to be built with the primary focus on Public transport. Any future towns built must have Rail links.

Was in Berlin a few weeks back I travelled on one of the high speed trains. We covered 220kms or so in an hour. You could live happily outside Dublin and commute if we had them here.

Efitz2019

Efitz2019 wrote: »

Was in Berlin a few weeks back I travelled on one of the high speed trains. We covered 220kms or so in an hour. You could live happily outside Dublin and commute if we had them here.

The trains here only go to Dublin city they rarely link up with industrial estates etc, a bit like the motorways.

conor_mc

Deleted User wrote: »

We need a proper underground public transport system, we need to build sky scrapers in Dublin, 100+ stories, we need to remove this 8 story limit it's a joke in this day and age.

This has been removed, right? I’m disappointed to see the rigmarole over raising the height of Salesforce Tower when it should be encouraged! The whole IFSC area is 6 stories, and has luas, Connolly station, busaras on its doorstep. Should be knocked and built into a world class high-rise CBD. And then locally for me, there’s a site on Griffith Ave where they’ve recently got new pp for 8 stores residential. Locals are up in arms, and it’s not how I’d like to see the removed height restrictions being used, but it is necessary across Dublin. Only thing I genuinely object to is removing 100+ year old trees to allow construction equipment in and out.

conor_mc

conor_mc wrote: »

This has been removed, right? I’m disappointed to see the rigmarole over raising the height of Salesforce Tower when it should be encouraged! The whole IFSC area is 6 stories, and has luas, Connolly station, busaras on its doorstep. Should be knocked and built into a world class high-rise CBD. And then locally for me, there’s a site on Griffith Ave where they’ve recently got new pp for 8 stores residential. Locals are up in arms, and it’s not how I’d like to see the removed height restrictions being used, but it is necessary across Dublin. Only thing I genuinely object to is removing 100+ year old trees to allow construction equipment in and out.

I don't think the 8 story limit has been removed.

Dublin City needs a revamp,

We need to seriously re-think how we house People on this Island, housing estates , the 3 bed semi with a postage stamp garden and concrete walls everywhere is unsustainable.

We need to go high rise and build nice apartments with a bit of space and then you have room to make nice playgrounds and parks rather.

I was in a housing estate in Dublin there a while ago and I got lost in a maze of vast concrete walls and roads an enormous waste of space with minimal housing, 20 times the amount of People and more could be housed in this area.

They're building a new town around Clondalkin, building on a Park, I mean you couldn't make it up, it will be full of concrete high walls and housing estates and some low rise apartments and probably no proper public transport. Traffic congestion there is already a problem.

Didn't they scrap some underground project in the City because some GAA ground had to be closed for a while ? you couldn't make it up !

liamog

Height limits have all been removed for general planning, but according to the High Court they still apply to Strategic Development Zones.

The Metrolink project wasn't scrapped due to the GAA ground closure, they just changed it around a little after consultation with community groups.

Idbatterim

take a read of this FARCE below!

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/ronan-looking-again-to-add-floors-to-dublin-docklands-tower-1.3968389

these height revisions most laughably of all, dont apply to SDZ, with their farcical low limits! They Councillors will consider changing them in a few years, while we lose out on investment, homes and jobs! (so basically taller building will be fine in a few years, but not now)...

This kip is the definition of a banana republic!

Idbatterim

Idbatterim wrote: »

This kip is the definition of a banana republic!

You better believe it !

We got muppets in government and we elect muppets all the time gomebean Ireland Alive and well.

peposhi

Tony Seba sums it up pretty well in his Clean Disruption talk...

https://youtu.be/2b3ttqYDwF0

Mike9832

peposhi wrote: »

Tony Seba sums it up pretty well in his Clean Disruption talk...

https://youtu.be/2b3ttqYDwF0

Eddie Hobbs of electrification?

Calahonda52

homer911 wrote: »

Car ownership is going to drop and car and ride sharing will become more popular. Perhaps self-driving cars will be the norm - even now it seems that the younger generations are less likely to be car drivers, with less interest in doing a driving test

.
50 years after Woodstock

krissovo

Over the past 15 years I have restored 2 beetles and 2 VW campers that are in semi storage with enough spares to last a lifetime. The plan was to leave these to my children as a homage to simple engineering and the petrol combustion engine as they will likely never have the joy of being broken down at the side of the road and fiddling with parts to get it going again. I have great memories of working on a old yellow escort with my grandfather to keep it on the road by doing real repairs. One of my fondest memories is cleaning a carburetor and re-jetting for the winter with my dad on a old cortina.

As the years have passed I was planning to convert them to electric due to the changing landscape but in the last 6 months I have come to the realisation that it's entirely possible that they will never pass a driving test that would allow them to drive a "analogue" car with no driver aids. On a positive note the value of original parts and classic VW's has risen so I guarantee so the kids will probably sell them and buy subscription based autonomous transport option for the town/region or countrywide and get a free Deezer 12 month subscription, then buy 12 months Netflix, 12 months of GP services, food subscription etc

Mike9832

Oil must go below $20 to compete

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-05/oil-needs-to-fall-below-20-to-compete-in-green-transport-future

I welcome that :pac:

unkel

krissovo wrote: »

As the years have passed I was planning to convert them to electric due to the changing landscape but in the last 6 months I have come to the realisation that it's entirely possible that they will never pass a driving test that would allow them to drive a "analogue" car with no driver aids.

That seems a bit far fetched. Sure anyone who got their license today is allowed to drive a 100 year old car with no seatbelts, etc.?

It could be off course that if your kids do their driving test in an EV or in an automatic car, they will never be able to drive manual cars. That might be an implication for converting your classics that are all presumably manuals.

Henry Ford III

EV new sales Triple in the UK - to 1.4% of the total.

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/105893/new-car-sales-2019-market-down-41-in-july-but-ev-sales-triple

unkel

It's coming from a very small base. Most countries are still at pioneer level (it hits early adopter level when the market penetration is 7.5% iirc)

Not impossible though that the EV sales keep tripling over the next few years. 1.4% in 2019, 4.2% in 2020, 13% in 2021, 50% in 2022, see where I'm going with this?

In Norway the pure EV sales are already 60% of all newly sold cars. It's just a matter of incentives (and availability - supply of new EVs is not anywhere near required levels and almost all EVs are still too expensive)

KCross

unkel wrote: »

Not impossible though that the EV sales keep tripling over the next few years. 1.4% in 2019, 4.2% in 2020, 13% in 2021, 50% in 2022, see where I'm going with this?

I dont think the manufacturers will let that happen. Its too disruptive and not in their interests.

Emissions regulations is the only thing that will drive them and they can achieve alot with hybrids (ref Toyota) so I'd bet they will all milk hybrids first before they go all in with BEV's.

unkel

I'm not that confident in next year either, but emissions are going to be much stricter from 2021 and by then VW (and others) should have some serious EV production going. Already everyone knows it's going to be full EV soon.

Read a very interesting article today, the MD of the Blackwater motor group of VW Audi and Seat dealers. Large VW dealer in your neck of the woods, whinging that people have stopped buying cars

"We show them an e-Golf for €40,000. Then they look at an internal combustion engine (ICE) option and they ask if it will be banned in a few years."

He is blaming the (increases in) tax. But that is clearly not the underlying issue. People are already holding off buying new cars until they can afford EVs. It's finally happening.

Linky

KCross

unkel wrote: »

I'm not that confident in next year either, but emissions are going to be much stricter from 2021 and by then VW (and others) should have some serious EV production going. Already everyone knows it's going to be full EV soon.

Read a very interesting article today, the MD of the Blackwater motor group of VW Audi and Seat dealers. Large VW dealer in your neck of the woods, whinging that people have stopped buying cars

"We show them an e-Golf for €40,000. Then they look at an internal combustion engine (ICE) option and they ask if it will be banned in a few years."

He is blaming the (increases in) tax. But that is clearly not the underlying issue. People are already holding off buying new cars until they can afford EVs. It's finally happening.

Linky

I dont come away with the same impression as you from that article.

He's essentially a vested interest trying to influence government policy (by spreading fear of job losses etc) because they know that the minister is right now reading the VRT proposals and he knows its going to hurt their bottomline as cars are going to get more expensive and drive more people to import rather than buy local.

The majority of cars sold cost €25,000 or so. All we're going to do is collapse new car sales and increase older imports.

This is an interesting statement considering the hype around price of the ID.3

It is going to take until 2025-2028 before you see EVs priced in the €20,000s.

My takeaway is that he wants to keep the ICE ball rolling as long as possible and these words "prove" the exact point I made in my previous post, imo...

That way we get people into low-emitting ICEs and plug-ins and then you move to electric."

KCross

I dont know if you listen to or follow Bob Flavin's channel but in his last "Sunday service" he said he reckons diesel is not dead and that there will be advancements that will keep it around for quite some time yet and he cited contacts he has inside the manufacturers and not just something he feels himself.

And he's not an EV hater by any means. He does spout some nonsense at times but I found those comments "interesting".

VW have also said in the recent past that they expect a "diesel renaissance". I cant see it myself but its all about emissions, if they can meet the new regulations with some some diesel tech who knows!

unkel

KCross wrote: »

I dont come away with the same impression as you from that article.

He's essentially a vested interest trying to influence government policy (by spreading fear of job losses etc) because they know that the minister is right now reading the VRT proposals and he knows its going to hurt their bottomline as cars are going to get more expensive and drive more people to import rather than buy local.

The majority of cars sold cost €25,000 or so. All we're going to do is collapse new car sales and increase older imports.

This is an interesting statement considering the hype around price of the ID.3

It is going to take until 2025-2028 before you see EVs priced in the €20,000s.

My takeaway is that he wants to keep the ICE ball rolling as long as possible and these words "prove" the exact point I made in my previous post, imo...

That way we get people into low-emitting ICEs and plug-ins and then you move to electric."

I don't disagree with any of that. But he knows the VRT and motor tax increases based on more realistic WLTP tests are happening and that the government is not going to reverse these, he can plead all he likes. And he sees for himself that people no longer buy lucrative (for him) diesels. They are down 25% this year. Total car sales are also down significantly. And no one in their right mind is going to spend €40k on an eGolf. He is hurting. His business is bleeding.

I think he hit the nail right on the head in that people are careful buying new cars now because people know full well a lot of things are going to change very quickly. Not until sometime earlier this year did I realise that almost anyone in this country I have spoken to, knows they will own an EV maybe for their next car. Or the car after that.

You'd be a right fool to buy a brand new diesel car right now. Unless you plan to sell it on in a year or so. You might get away with it.

tjhook

unkel wrote: »

...people are careful buying new cars now because people know full well a lot of things are going to change very quickly

This rings true for me. I was ready to change my old car, and thought maybe I'd go for a self-charging Hybrid saloon next January - maybe a Toyota.
I looked into it, and "people on the Internet" are saying that these are a dead end from an environmental perspective. I'd take that with a pinch of salt, but then I hear of a report to the government that says the same, and recommends such cars shouldn't receive the financial incentives they do today.

Even if I wanted to, there are very few plug-in hybrids that are similar to an Avensis/Mondeo/Passat, which is what I would like. The closest I could see were the Prius and Hyundai Ioniq - and I think these are more similar to a Corolla/Focus.

Right now my motor tax on a 1.6l petrol engine is over €500. I was somewhat stung when the government favoured diesel. I don't want this to happen again. I think I'll wait a year or two longer, and see how it all pans out. In the mean time, I'll continue to drive an old petrol engine.

Markcheese

I dunno, I think diesel is still an option for people doing mileage... But for someone doing 10 / 15 thousand miles a year? Just to get cheap road tax..

KCross

unkel wrote: »

You'd be a right fool to buy a brand new diesel car right now. Unless you plan to sell it on in a year or so. You might get away with it.

Well, we've 50,000 fools so far this year so!

I dont see the diesel renaissance either that VW talk about. I think its too tainted now that people wont trust governments in the long term to tax the ****e out of it. It is in free fall already, as you said, and will go back to its pre-2008 levels quickly where it will be the preserve of salesman and anyone who does massive mileage and those who just dont want to change.


I just dont think we're going to have one big shift over to BEV like you suggest with tripling of BEV sales each year. There will be a large bump in BEV sales in 2020/2021 but relatively speaking it will still be a small percentage of the market.

imo, its going to be a large switch to hybrid first (at the expense of diesel) with modest increases in BEV and then around 2025 BEV's will accelerate as the likes of Ford join the party with large volume and we might have some battery breakthroughs coming through by then as well further increasing range.

That's what my crystal ball said anyway!

Mike9832

KCross wrote: »

Well, we've 50,000 fools so far this year so!

I dont see the diesel renaissance either that VW talk about. I think its too tainted now that people wont trust governments in the long term to tax the ****e out of it. It is in free fall already, as you said, and will go back to its pre-2008 levels quickly where it will be the preserve of salesman and anyone who does massive mileage and those who just dont want to change.


I just dont think we're going to have one big shift over to BEV like you suggest with tripling of BEV sales each year. There will be a large bump in BEV sales in 2020/2021 but relatively speaking it will still be a small percentage of the market.

imo, its going to be a large switch to hybrid first (at the expense of diesel) with modest increases in BEV and then around 2025 BEV's will accelerate as the likes of Ford join the party with large volume and we might have some battery breakthroughs coming through by then as well further increasing range.

That's what my crystal ball said anyway!

My cyrstal ball

Says ICE sales will tank early next decade, till affordable EV's hit the market

Know a good few people who will not buy a brand new ICE car, dont see the point.

Autogiants and dealers in for a huge wake up call soon imo

Good times are over

creedp

KCross wrote: »

Well, we've 50,000 fools so far this year so!

I dont see the diesel renaissance either that VW talk about. I think its too tainted now that people wont trust governments in the long term to tax the ****e out of it. It is in free fall already, as you said, and will go back to its pre-2008 levels quickly where it will be the preserve of salesman and anyone who does massive mileage and those who just dont want to change.


I just dont think we're going to have one big shift over to BEV like you suggest with tripling of BEV sales each year. There will be a large bump in BEV sales in 2020/2021 but relatively speaking it will still be a small percentage of the market.

imo, its going to be a large switch to hybrid first (at the expense of diesel) with modest increases in BEV and then around 2025 BEV's will accelerate as the likes of Ford join the party with large volume and we might have some battery breakthroughs coming through by then as well further increasing range.

That's what my crystal ball said anyway!

There is still very little choice out there for large family cars. If you are in the 7 seater market, even if annual mileage is relatively modest, what choices do you currently have? Buying a petrol will see you in a very niche market with underpowered and inefficient MPV / SUVs. To my knowledge there are no affordable 7 seater hybrids / EVs out there at present. Personally I'm considering running my 08 (170k miles with no DPF) into the ground or until an affordable 7 seater PHEV / EV becomes available.

eddhorse

Wasnt sure where to put this picture, this will be my future as soon as I get an EV soon.
Maybe a thread should be created "Post a pic of bad ICE parking"

Tullamore town centre:


MOD please feel free to move.

fricatus

eddhorse wrote: »

Wasnt sure where to put this picture, this will be my future as soon as I get an EV soon.
Maybe a thread should be created "Post a pic of bad ICE parking"

Tullamore town centre:


MOD please feel free to move.

I think a thread of bad ICEing would be a great idea. Good photo to start it off!

KCross

fricatus wrote: »

I think a thread of bad ICEing would be a great idea. Good photo to start it off!

Go to Facebook if you want to read a whole load of people whinging about being ICEd!

Personally, I think an ICEd thread achieves nothing. It’s not like that Hiace driver will see it and change his behavior out of shame! He’d probably feel proud of himself that he got a mention on the forum!

Kramer

fricatus wrote: »

I think a thread of bad ICEing would be a great idea. Good photo to start it off!

Fully charged BEVs abandoned at both rapid chargers & SCPs are equally as problematic or even more so in my recent experience.

Not an insurmountable problem - (reasonable) charging for charging with a contract to a local towing company to remove any offenders.

Don't hold your breath though...............ECars are on the case .

Kramer

Not sure where to put this but great to see our dear leaders practising what they preach/leading by example/showing us how it's done.............

Cabinet Ministers using environmentally-friendly vehicles

Fair play to them .

unkel

Richard Bruton driving an Ioniq. But I guess you kinda have to drive an EV if you're Minister for Climate Action and Environment

Saw him in at the Newlands Cross charger doing some sort of interview with ESB eCars and the owner of a Kona EV. Spoke to the ESB eCars spokeswoman who was there in her own company car, also an Ioniq.

Kramer

unkel wrote: »

Richard Bruton driving an Ioniq.

Ah yes, but did you cop that it's not a BEV Ioniq, but a plug-in? Despite the story's top caption & picture of a full BEV Ioniq, that's not what he drives.
Wonder how they made that mistake? :rolleyes:

Wonder how often it's plugged in?

2 guesses .

Lip service.

unkel

Ah Jaysus, I missed that

tabby aspreme

What will batteries contain in 2030, how much Lithium is still to be mined

Kramer

tabby aspreme wrote: »

What will batteries contain in 2030, how much Lithium is still to be mined

Who knows what battery technology will be here by 2030 but plenty of lithium available as far as I know & it's 100% recyclable, unlike fossil fuel, which is a finite resource &, last time I checked, wasn't recyclable?

Oh, someone mentioned something about ICE being bad for the environment too........

PaulRyan97

tjhook wrote: »

Even if I wanted to, there are very few plug-in hybrids that are similar to an Avensis/Mondeo/Passat, which is what I would like.

The new Passat GTE should be available in October, might be worth looking at.