Royal Ascot, day 2 - Wednesday

supremenovice

I'm going for Nate the Great in the 1405. Third to Anthony van Dyck in the Lingfield Derby trial is great form and ran well as a 2yo here last year.

Peintre Celebre

Chilean at 33s in the hunt cup my only bet. Not too badly handicapped he beat the French Derby winner last season. Off the track eight months but may be primed for this and interesting

The Tetrarch

14:30 Kimari 8.00
15:05 no bet
15:40 Waldgeist 6.00
16:20 Pretty Baby 10.00
17:00 Cardsharp 167.36
17:35 Better The Devil 34.21

torres9kop

Lads who is the best tipster on here? need a few for tomorrow please

Earendil

Sonofgoat. The man is like the feckin Oracle.

bludcrazetiger

just the 2 for tomorrow (so far)

5pm - I fancy circus couture to run well tomorrow, wide open race, good chance as any imo. career low mark of 102, ran well in last years race of a 4lb higher mark finishing 3rd, visor on, worth a chance at the price of 33/1 ew (sky bet 7 places) 0.5 pt ew

16.20 I can fly 9/2 (1 pt)

madmoose

Need Waldgeist and Kimari antepost but it doesn’t look easy.

Added the following in the Hunt Cup, all ew 6 or 7 places

Chief Ironside 25/1
Zhui Feng 33/1
Afaak 25/1

PhuckHugh22

Queen Mary: Theory of Time 14/1(1 point win)
Queens Vase: Norway @3/1(1 point win)
Prince of Wales: Crystal Ocean @4/1(1 point win)
Duke of Cambridge: Veracious @10/1(2 points each way 1/5 4 places)
Royal Hunt Cup: Petrus @33/1(1 point each way 1/5 7 places), Mitchum Swagger @40/1(.5 points each way 1/5 6 places, Zwayan @40/1(.5 points each way 1/5 7 places)

*There are better prices and terms available for some of these but these are the prices and terms I could get on at so not going to put up something I can't get.
**Adding a bet in the Queen Mary

Staked: 11 points

Mostly Harmless

Few small arrows today:
2.30: Raffle Prize
3.05: Pythion
4.20: Anna Nerium
5.00: Breden/So Beloved

Also be tempted to bet Sea Of Class against Magical if she were to hit 4/1.

Chancer3001

2.30 - multiply by eight 50s

3.05 Norway

3.40 sea of class is friendless in the market but hoping it comes good

4.20 threading

5.00 affak

5.35 temple of heaven

The Mig

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Few small arrows today:
2.30: Raffle Prize
3.05: Pythion
4.20: Anna Nerium
5.00: Breden/So Beloved

Also be tempted to bet Sea Of Class against Magical if she were to hit 4/1.

Will Hill are 4s MH

Mostly Harmless

The Mig wrote: »

Will Hill are 4s MH

Ta, am on now. Obvious unknown regarding level of preparedness and bigger targets later in year but seems massive given level of form from last year.

Scoundrel

14.30 Ickworth

15.05 Eminent authority

15.40 Sea of Class

16.20 Pretty Baby

mirwillbeback

Earendil wrote: »

Sonofgoat. The man is like the feckin Oracle.

I'd wager he has the best recent record on this forum.

Yet most seemed to idolise a guy who was not even a boards member providing 219 losers out of 239 bets.

Funny that.

Mostly Harmless

mirwillbeback wrote: »

I'd wager he has the best recent record on this forum.

Yet most seemed to idolise a guy who was not even a boards member providing 219 losers out of 239 bets.

Funny that.

If only he kept a P/L we could answer this question instead of "wagering"

realdanbreen

torres9kop wrote: »

Lads who is the best tipster on here? need a few for tomorrow please

No such thing really as a best tipster. Plenty of bad tipsters alright but unless a guy has the ability to talk to a horse or better still understand what a horse might be thinking or saying then he is just doing what the rest of us do, going to meetings, studying form and weighing up the odds. As I have said before the bookies-who have invested €millions in software to figure the odds- will usually have the race priced correctly. So your 33/1 shot has exactly that , a 1 in 33 chance of winning.

Mostly Harmless

realdanbreen wrote: »

No such thing really as a best tipster. Plenty of bad tipsters alright but unless a guy has the ability to talk to a horse or better still understand what a horse might be thinking or saying then he is just doing what the rest of us do, going to meetings, studying form and weighing up the odds. As I have said before the bookies-who have invested €millions in software to figure the odds- will usually have the race priced correctly. So your 33/1 shot has exactly that , a 1 in 33 chance of winning.

Hugh Taylor (who has shown massive profits for many years in a row) must be able to read horses minds so, explains it perfectly

PhuckHugh22

realdanbreen wrote: »

No such thing really as a best tipster. Plenty of bad tipsters alright but unless a guy has the ability to talk to a horse or better still understand what a horse might be thinking or saying then he is just doing what the rest of us do, going to meetings, studying form and weighing up the odds. As I have said before the bookies-who have invested €millions in software to figure the odds- will usually have the race priced correctly. So your 33/1 shot has exactly that , a 1 in 33 chance of winning.

If 33/1 shots are winning 1 in 33 races. The bookies should probably invest more money in that software.

Slattsy

Western Australia for me. Ground a worry but i'll take me chances at 5/1.

And I Can Fly also at 9/2.

May do a small double also for the craic!

realdanbreen

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Hugh Taylor (who has shown massive profits for many years in a row) must be able to read horses minds so, explains it perfectly

But surely most professional punters make a profit year on year. That doesn't mean the punter or Hugh Taylor for that matter will tip the winner of the 4.05 in Hamilton today.

realdanbreen

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

If 33/1 shots are winning 1 in 33 races. The bookies should probably invest more money in that software.

Not sure if you understand the concept of being 33/1 and winning one in every 33 races .

Mostly Harmless

realdanbreen wrote: »

But surely most professional punters make a profit year on year. That doesn't mean the punter or Hugh Taylor for that matter will tip the winner of the 4.05 in Hamilton today.

Tipping is about the long term game, anyone can pick the winner of one race with a bit of luck but not everybody can turn a profit over a long period of time.

realdanbreen wrote: »

Not sure if you understand the concept of being 33/1 and winning one in every 33 races .

And how does the bookie make a profit in this scenario?

PhuckHugh22

realdanbreen wrote: »

Not sure if you understand the concept of being 33/1 and winning one in every 33 races .

Oh i understand it just fine.
Firstly a 33/1 shot should in theory win once every 34 races not 1 in every 33.

Second, no bookie in their right mind is pricing up a horse who they think is winning 1 in 33 races at 33/1. It would be more like a 25-28/1.

realdanbreen

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Tipping is about the long term game, anyone can pick the winner of one race with a bit of luck but not everybody can turn a profit over a long period of time.


And how does the bookie make a profit in this scenario?

Sorry, my apologies I was going too fast.. Now if I have 4 apples and you have 3 apples then.............

Mostly Harmless

Not derailing this any further. Have a good day's punting all

PhuckHugh22

Indeed.

Going update for anyone needing it.

Straight Course: Good to Soft
Round Course: Soft, Good to Soft in places

Mostly Harmless

Any ideas (guesses) as to where the draw bias will be in the Hunt Cup? Gone with the old one low/one high approach but feel like low is likely preferable - Queen Mary should clarify a bit.

IAMAMORON

Yesterday was massively frustrating. I will probably never find my bollix again. It is gone forever. Congrats to connections of Circus Maximus, really annoying though as I was told to back it for the Derby...…

2.30 No idea - Fivers on Divine Spirit, Isabeau , Flaiming Princess and Liberty Beach
3.05 Harpo Marx ew
3.40 Sea of Class - obvious ground worries but 7/2 would be annoying if she wins.
4.20 Pretty Baby
5.00 Seniority , Roc Angel
5.40 I have no clue - Wheels on Fire at 66/1 looks value.

Enjoy all and happy punting.

PhuckHugh22

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Any ideas (guesses) as to where the draw bias will be in the Hunt Cup? Gone with the old one low/one high approach but feel like low is likely preferable - Queen Mary should clarify a bit.

Hard to tell on evidence we have so far. Looking at the Queen Anne, King Stand and Coventry from yesterday the winners came down the middle to far side. Granted it is not really like for like and there is going to be an extra 10 runners to those races.

IAMAMORON

Earendil wrote: »

Sonofgoat. The man is like the feckin Oracle.

I presume your taking the piss. Even a degenerate Gannet like me can back winners at even money. The guy is a coin flipper, anyone can do that.

The most money you will ever lose is backing and laying jollys, believe.

madmoose

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Any ideas (guesses) as to where the draw bias will be in the Hunt Cup? Gone with the old one low/one high approach but feel like low is likely preferable - Queen Mary should clarify a bit.

I was thinking Cardsharp should be out handy and is draw high next to Raising Sands so possible high draw bias stand side today?

RivetingRoger

Happiest following Aidankk myself

today
Norway/Seaofclass double

PhuckHugh22

Sea of Class still drifting on Betfair.

Id say there is a worry she doesnt run on the ground.

Mostly Harmless

Think they said they will run today regardless as need the run before King George

BumperD

Noticed that for first two days the prices of most runners appear way bigger the next day, just like Cheltenham. Don’t back overnight prices

With the softening conditions might be some big priced winners today - edit; actually saying they missed they heavy rain so maybe not as soft as predicted

Lady Haywire

2.30-Divine Spirit
3.05- Harpo Marx
3.40- Magical
4.20- Anna Nerium
5.00- Robin of Navan
5.35- Glasvegas

Again no money but just like to pick for each race.

ancapallliath

Anna's Fast and Daughter In Law in the Queen Mary for me, and after watching the Chester Vase I was adamant Norway would win the Queen's Vase.

I have no other fancies but some great races for watching

realdanbreen

Hand on Heart 4.20 @ 50/1 4 places
Beringer 5.00 25/1 6 places
Jacob black-Hamilton 4.05 6/1

Small e/w combo

Mostly Harmless

ancapallliath wrote: »

Anna's Fast and Daughter In Law in the Queen Mary for me, and after watching the Chester Vase I was adamant Norway would win the Queen's Vase.

I have no other fancies but some great races for watching

Have also added Daughter In Law in Queen Mary at 33s with Paddy paying 5 places. Showed some serious pace to win last time and possibly underestimated on account of less fashionable connections.

zpehtsfd

16.20 Red Tea only just beaten into third by I Can Fly last time. Is 4lb better off today against the fav. No worries with the ground. Cracking e.w. price @ 14/1. imo.

FatRat

Sh*te talk incoming..

Have to take Doyle's from the Goldophin clan in the 2.30 first, Theory of Time (12/1). 2nd favourite of Appleby's two but has the best jockey on board - he also should have went to the Albany Stake but he is here instead. Andy Holding makes a good case for him also, has put him up as 1 of 3 selections for the race. Worth a punt in an unpredictable race really.

In the 3.05 I think Dashing Willoughby will improve again up another 2f. I don't think the race was ran right for him when he finished close 3rd behind Norway at Chester. He set quite a slow gallop from the start. This will be a much different race now and probably will be a more staying test. Norway probably has his measure but at 10/1 he is worth a few pound.

For the 3.40 its hard to know. What I don't like about Magical is her prep... a lot of racing in Kildare against the same opposition who she was always going to beat 3 times. Can't fault her 2nd to Enable in the US but Sea of Class probably should have turned over enable herself. I might have to eat my words but I think Crystal Ocean is out of his depth here. The value is in Sea of Class at 4/1 but small bet - hard to know if she ready and fit enough.

Serious value in the 4.20 available thanks to I Can Fly taking a super short 7/2, which I think should surely drift before the off... Based on that price everyone should be having Red Tea at 16/1. But I prefer the Agrotera, Preening and Rawda form better. From their race at Kempton I would take Preening at 20/1 out of it.

Well done if you can back a winner in the last 2 of the day. I'm not even gonna guess at it.

show me the money.1

realdanbreen wrote: »

But surely most professional punters make a profit year on year. That doesn't mean the punter or Hugh Taylor for that matter will tip the winner of the 4.05 in Hamilton today.

Southern Rock wins this I think.

ancapallliath

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Have also added Daughter In Law in Queen Mary at 33s with Paddy paying 5 places. Showed some serious pace to win last time and possibly underestimated on account of less fashionable connections.

That was my thinking too. Her form is solid in its own right, whether that will be good enough today is another thing but worth chancing at a price.

Chancer3001

show me the money.1 wrote: »

realdanbreen wrote: »

But surely most professional punters make a profit year on year. That doesn't mean the punter or Hugh Taylor for that matter will tip the winner of the 4.05 in Hamilton today.

Southern Rock wins this I think.

Harvey dent southern rock r/f

longshotvalue

That Peter T Fornitale, thinks Kimari has a huge chance. He's a very decent us racing tipster, and has been right plenty of times in the past about ward runners.


That said i'm really blindly following wards bullets in these 5 furlong 2yo races. Ground is getting better by the minute (once it doesn't rain again)



Of course i also stuck in Love Bracelet, in a fun lucky 15 that will change the name of BetVictor to BetAidan if it comes off.

ancapallliath

aidankkk wrote: »

That Peter T Fornitale, thinks Kimari has a huge chance. He's a very decent us racing tipster, and has been right plenty of times in the past about ward runners.


That said i'm really blindly following wards bullets in these 5 furlong 2yo races. Ground is getting better by the minute (once it doesn't rain again)



Of course i also stuck in Love Bracelet, in a fun lucky 15 that will change the name of BetVictor to BetAidan if it comes off.

Kimari ran 2 seconds faster than Anna's Fast in their Keenland maidens. slowly away and bustled to lead. kicked impressively for home 2 out and readily drew clear. Anna's Fast though broke smartly and led at a nice steady pace. Jockey never moved on her and she drew clear very cosily. Im taking a chance on her on that run but may not find anything off the bridle but double the price so thats my 2nd worth an ew wager

mailburner

kimari
agrotera
new graduate

all 7s

SonOfGoat

Wide open. Went E.W on Kimari 15/2 and also E.W on Tango at 10/1

Mostly Harmless

Good man Lanfranco

ancapallliath

great finish between Frankie and Velazquez

Thrashssacre

Do you tend to get you’re money back for a horse that doesn’t leave the trap?