Thursday 6th June

SonOfGoat

2.00 Hamilton, Makyon, to me an absolute cert. Pretty short at around 8/13 on the exchange. I've backed it already. Be nice if it drifted to around 4/5 - 8/11 and I'll get stuck in again.


2.20 Ripon, Praxeology around 2.54/6/4 on the exchange. Not liking this horse. The trainer's name has the price so low today which is great. I've been laying this. I get the feeling the general public will back this horse and the price will shorten up a lot more and I'll lay again. I really can't see it winning today.

3.10 Haydock, Dubai Station around 10/11 generally. I think the horse will win well today. Looks a 2 horse race on paper but I'm not liking the hannon horse and wouldn't be surprised if something else finished second.

That's it til this evening. Good luck to anyone betting today, looks an iffy days racing.

akelly02

fancy norton to have a good day at ripon, few leading chances

HarshOstrich

SonOfGoat wrote: »

2.00 Hamilton, Makyon, to me an absolute cert. Pretty short at around 8/13 on the exchange. I've backed it already. Be nice if it drifted to around 4/5 - 8/11 and I'll get stuck in again.


2.20 Ripon, Praxeology around 2.54/6/4 on the exchange. Not liking this horse. The trainer's name has the price so low today which is great. I've been laying this. I get the feeling the general public will back this horse and the price will shorten up a lot more and I'll lay again. I really can't see it winning today.

3.10 Haydock, Dubai Station around 10/11 generally. I think the horse will win well today. Looks a 2 horse race on paper but I'm not liking the hannon horse and wouldn't be surprised if something else finished second.

That's it til this evening. Good luck to anyone betting today, looks an iffy days racing.

Think the hannon horse will go really well in the 3.10, the trainer fancied him to win on debut last time but got squeezed out early and made big move after that,then tired late on and finished 2nd, he will be much sharper today.

SonOfGoat

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Think the hannon horse will go really well in the 3.10, the trainer fancied him to win on debut last time but got squeezed out early and made big move after that,then tired late on and finished 2nd, he will be much sharper today.

Just my opinion but I disagree totally. You're 100% right it was expected to win first time out. They gambled on it that day from decent prices down to around 11/8 - 6/4. That day it looked a 2 horse race on paper and it beat the 2nd fav but was stuffed by a 7/1 shot and beaten a nose. My theory on it is, it takes a lot have have a horse 100% to win a race fitness wise and it takes it out of a horse. That day was good to firm I think, and today it's soft going. I get the feeling they will give it an easy run or 2, let the horse recharge and go for the win on good to firm like previously. The last run was only 12 days ago.

That's just my take on it, but of-course I could be way off with my assumptions.

zpehtsfd

Well that's you told. :pac::pac:

Please don't feed the trolls.

Mostly Harmless

"stuffed by a nose"

Mostly Harmless

Few bets at Leopardstown for me tonight anyway.

6.50: A fairly weak listed race and I thought Surrounding was a very decent bet at around the 4/1 mark, proven winning form at this level and did it well enough after traveling like a good thing last time. Extra distance a minor concern on that evidence but has won over a mile before and provided there is no further rain she should be fine on the ground with a few of the others preferring a bit more cut. Not particularly keen on either of the two ahead of her in market and thought she should be something like 3/1 to 11/4 on form. Small saver on Quizical at a massive price who has had less chances than most and may yet have some improvement in the tank.

7.25: Typically impossible handicap and small bits on Pushaq and Dance Emperor. Pushaq's turf mark is well out of whack with AW mark and looks to have a tough task on that basis after failing to get job done off lower AW mark at Wolverhampton the last day but should be able to get prominent from draw and could be dangerous off soft fractions with 7lb claim to help offset some of extra weight. Not particularly confident with Dance Emperor and would prefer a proper jockey on board but have bet last two runs and last years form for Harrington would put him bang there off this mark/in this class - needs to start showing something today or I will be abandoning this particular project.

8.30: Very optimistic dart at 12yo King Of Aran, likely a light of former years but has run well on back of break in past and managed a win over jumps round this time last year, Grassick presumably thinks there's still a race in him to be persevering at this stage of the horses career.

9.00: Cactus Tree got no luck in running last time when fitted with first time hood, hood remains on today and steps up in trip but being by Camelot you would assume he's unlikely to be a natural sprinter anyway and should be going very close if repeating the effort and getting a bit better luck.

paddyisreal

SonOfGoat wrote: »

Just my opinion but I disagree totally. You're 100% right it was expected to win first time out. They gambled on it that day from decent prices down to around 11/8 - 6/4. That day it looked a 2 horse race on paper and it beat the 2nd fav but was stuffed by a 7/1 shot and beaten a nose. My theory on it is, it takes a lot have have a horse 100% to win a race fitness wise and it takes it out of a horse. That day was good to firm I think, and today it's soft going. I get the feeling they will give it an easy run or 2, let the horse recharge and go for the win on good to firm like previously. The last run was only 12 days ago.

That's just my take on it, but of-course I could be way off with my assumptions.

What makes you think that your selection will go on soft, the sire is had no liking for soft and the dam didnt like it either. Not a race for backing or lying for me but your theory above could be applied to your selection also.

paddyisreal

Drifting like a barge now !

PhuckHugh22

paddyisreal wrote: »

What makes you think that your selection will go on soft, the sire is had no liking for soft and the dam didnt like it either. Not a race for backing or lying for me but your theory above could be applied to your selection also.

Spot on there. Id imagine the Zoffany filly is more likely to handle the soft than fav(by Brazen Beau).

Hardly a 2 horse race either. Some nicely bred types in there. Tom Dascombes Dark Angel colt would be right in the mix on pedigree. As well as Kevin Ryans.

Mostly Harmless

These novice races with limited form and horses improving on back of one run are like roulette to me, so many unknowns.

bookman2

SonOfGoat wrote: »

2.00 Hamilton, Makyon, to me an absolute cert. Pretty short at around 8/13 on the exchange. I've backed it already. Be nice if it drifted to around 4/5 - 8/11 and I'll get stuck in again.


2.20 Ripon, Praxeology around 2.54/6/4 on the exchange. Not liking this horse. The trainer's name has the price so low today which is great. I've been laying this. I get the feeling the general public will back this horse and the price will shorten up a lot more and I'll lay again. I really can't see it winning today.

3.10 Haydock, Dubai Station around 10/11 generally. I think the horse will win well today. Looks a 2 horse race on paper but I'm not liking the hannon horse and wouldn't be surprised if something else finished second.

That's it til this evening. Good luck to anyone betting today, looks an iffy days racing.

well done goat ---2 out of 3 ain't bad!

PhuckHugh22

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

These novice races with limited form and horses improving on back of one run are like roulette to me, so many unknowns.

Couldn't agree more with that.

PhuckHugh22

This is some race for a bad Hamilton card on a Thursday here.

I bet Brando just because I could see any of the top 3 taking it and he is the biggest price. A solid a reason as any... Haha

I will add that I do think he should be second fav. Obviously the fav has the best form from Ascot last year but there is usually little to nothing between these top sprinters and it is really just a case of on the day with most of them.

Mostly Harmless

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

Couldn't agree more with that.

Not to say there's anything wrong with betting in them but to me you'll tend to be one step behind the market in most cases. But every cripple has their own way of walking as they say

paddyisreal

Maybe im mad but might take a small squeak on fighting irish in this e,w without the fav at 33/1. Good soft ground form in france and a first time hood.

PhuckHugh22

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

This is some race for a bad Hamilton card on a Thursday here.

I bet Brando just because I could see any of the top 3 taking it and he is the biggest price. A solid a reason as any... Haha

I will add that I do think he should be second fav. Obviously the fav has the best form from Ascot last year but there is usually little to nothing between these top sprinters and it is really just a case of on the day with most of them.

Will take that as my last bet of the day. :cool:
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Until i completely degen it up at Leopardstown later.:pac:

SonOfGoat

paddyisreal wrote: »

What makes you think that your selection will go on soft, the sire is had no liking for soft and the dam didnt like it either. Not a race for backing or lying for me but your theory above could be applied to your selection also.

No it couldn't. My theory wasn't just based on going. But Brazen Beau progeny has been running and winning on soft and a lot of placed efforts on soft going.

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

"stuffed by a nose"

There was no pun intended

IAMAMORON

Is David Marnane trying to get Settle for Bay down to a winnable mark for Ascot, or has the horse gone to shight? Was poor enough down in Meydan and well down the field in Naas last time.

When he won at Ascot last summer I was sure we would see him in group races all summer?

Any thoughts ?

SonOfGoat

The 4.40 at Haydock, another novice stakes. The fav Enough Already at 6/4 is very backable now. I've backed it. I was hesitant at shorter odds. Should be a good race.

akelly02

Waiting on a 4 figure pay out with maamora here at ripon.

please franny get it home in front!!

akelly02

akelly02 wrote: »

Waiting on a 4 figure pay out with maamora here at ripon.

please franny get it home in front!!

easy as you like, delighted!

IAMAMORON

My fancies for this evening.

Baile an Leopard -

6.20 - Asdaa - cause logically it shouldn't win. Think about that for a sec.
7.55 - Eminent Authority - firstly because I am one .... and also because in a 3 horse race, you should always back the outsider.

Baile an Chelmsford

6.30 - Woven - because Jaime Spencer gets paid to win races, especially when he rides for David Simcock.

Be careful, there is alot of racing out there.

SonOfGoat

akelly02 wrote: »

easy as you like, delighted!

Well done, won very easy. That's a nice pay day for you.

Well my last be of the day/evening and it's my best bet.

5.25 Chelmsford, Above, around 1.93, I'm laying this, I think it might need the run first time out.

I'm out. Good luck

longshotvalue

encantador look a bit of value in the next . 29 on Betfair . Min bet for fun

Kauto

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Is David Marnane trying to get Settle for Bay down to a winnable mark for Ascot, or has the horse gone to shight? Was poor enough down in Meydan and well down the field in Naas last time.

When he won at Ascot last summer I was sure we would see him in group races all summer?

Any thoughts ?

Horse is not up to group level. Obviously being aimed at an Ascot handicap but is not going to get dropped in weights with runs like tonight