Aintree 2019 4th April

del roy

THURSDAY, 4th April 2019 (ITV/Racing TV)
2.20pm – Doombar Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle 4yo Grade 1 (Class 1) (4yo) 2m1f ITV

2018 Winner: WE HAVE A DREAM (2/1 odds)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Daryl Jacob

14/16 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
13/16 – Placed in the top three last time out
11/16 – Raced in the Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
10/16 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
7/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Won by trainer Alan King (4 of the last 12)
5/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/16 – Irish-trained winners
11/14 winners were placed at worst at the Cheltenham Festival
French-bred horses have won 11 of the last 20 (55%) runnings – including the last four.
13/19 winners raced in the Triumph Hurdle earlier that season
Just 5/29 winners hadn’t won at least twice over hurdles before

2.50pm – Betway Bowl Chase Grade 1 (Class 1) (5yo+) 3m1f ITV


2018 Winner: MIGHT BITE (4/5 fav odds)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Barry Geraghty

14/16 – Didn’t win last time out
13/16 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
10/16 – Ran in the Gold Cup (Cheltenham) last time out
9/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
6/16 – Aged in double-figures
4/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
4/16 – Winning favourites
4/5 – Won that season’s King George
15/35 (43%) winners were aged 10 or older
24/35 (69%) winners ran in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
13/22 (59%) winners were placed fourth or better in that season’s King George VI Chase
2nd or 3rd favourites have won 13 of the last 26 (50%) renewals and 6 of the last 9 (67%)
4 of the last 8 winners had run in this race before
3 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 in that season’s Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury


3.25pm – Betway Aintree Hurdle Grade 1 (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

2018 Winner: L’AMI SERGE (5/1 odds)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Daryl Jacob

16/16 – Aged 8 or younger
13/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
11/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/16 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle last time out
8/16 – Irish-trained winners, plus 18 of the last 42
5/16 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
4/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
4/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (4 of the last 8)
3/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
10 of the last 13 winners (including last 7) had won a Grade 1 before
9 of the last 18 (50%) winners had won at this meeting before
Only 5 Champion Hurdle winners since 1999 have run – but 3 won
Every British-trained winner had raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just 1 of the last 18 Champion Hurdle runner-ups to race have won


4.05pm – The Randox Health Fox Hunters´ Chase (Class 2) (6yo+) 2m5f ITV1

2018 Winner: BALNASLOW (11/2 odds)
Trainer: Graham John McKeever
Jockey: Derek O’Connor

16/16 – Aged 9 or older (Just 2 of the last 33 winners were younger than 9)
13/16 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Aged in double-figures
11/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Ran in the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
Irish-trained runners have won 4 of the last 5 runnings
11 of the last 14 winners went off favourite or second favourite
22 of the last 26 winners had won a race earlier that season
Only 2 of the last 35 winners were aged younger than 9
22 of the last 26 (85%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
10 of the last 14 winners had run over these National-style fences before
Ex-handicap horses have won 11 of the last 17 (65%) renewals

4.40pm – Red Rum Handicap Chase Grade 3 (Class 1) (5yo+) 2m ITV

2018 Winner: Bentelimar (10/1 odds)
Trainer: Charlie Longsdon
Jockey: Jonathan Burke

15/16 – Aged 9 or younger
14/16 – Carried 11-1 or less
11/16 – Carried 10-13 or less
11/16 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/16 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
9/16 – Aged 7 or younger
10/16 – Unplaced last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites (1 co)
3/16 – Won last time out
1/16 – Irish-trained winner
10 of the last 18 winners were Novices
15 of the last 19 winners were rated 139 or lower
Only 2 winners older than 9 years-old since 1988
4 of the last 11 winners were ridden by conditional jockeys
The top 5 in the betting have won 14 of the last 21 (67%) runnings
17 of the last 19 (89%) winners carried 11-2 or less
3 of the last 12 winners raced in the previous year’s race
7 of the last 20 (35%) winners ran in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual (Cheltenham)


Friday April 5th

FRIDAY, 5th April 2019 (ITV/Racing TV)
2.20pm – Betway Top Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m110y ITV

2018 Winner: LALOR (14/1 odds)
Trainer: Kayley Woollacott
Jockey: Richard Johnson

15/16 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
10/16 – Finished first or second last time out
10/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/16 – Aged 5 years-old
8/16 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
7/16 – Had raced on the flat before
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/16 – Winning favourites
15 of the last 22 (68%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
21 of the last 28 (75%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
Just one Irish winner since 1978
9 of the last 19 (47%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle


2.50pm – Betway Mildmay Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 3m1f ITV

2018 Winner: TERREFORT (3/1 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Daryl Jacob

16/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
16/16 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
13/16 – Aged 7 or younger
13/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/16 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
12/16 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
7/16 – Ran in the RSA Chase last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including last 2)
2/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Irish trained winners
5 of the last 6 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase
29 of the last 30 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
24 of the last 28 winners had won over at least 3m before
34 of the last 38 (89%) winners had won twice or more over fences
14 of the last 17 (82%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989


3.25pm – JLT Melling Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f ITV

201 Winner: POLITOLOGUE (11/1)
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies

16/16 – Raced within the last 30 days
16/16 – Ran in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
15/16 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
13/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Aged 9 or younger
10/16 – Finished in the top three last time out
10/16 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Irish-trained winners
6/16 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
4/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/16 – Trained by Alan King
No winners have been beaten in a previous running of the race
21 of the last 28 (75%) runners had won over at least 2m4f
30 of the last 33 (91%) winners were aged 7 or older
13 of the last 24 (54%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
15 of the last 24 (63%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
19 of the last 28 (68%) winners had been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
12 of the last 15 (80%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
26 of the last 28 (93%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season


4.05pm – Randox Health Topham Chase Handicap (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

2018 Winner: ULTRAGOLD (14/1 odds)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Harry Cobden

15/16 – Raced within the last 34 days
15/16 – Aged 10 or younger
13/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/16 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
10/16 – Raced within the last 23 days
10/16 – Unplaced last time out
4/16 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
2/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
The last 5 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
8 of the last 13 (62%) winners raced in last year’s race
10 of the last 13 (77%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
10 of the last 15 (67%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
14 of the last 26 (54%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 2 Irish-trained winners since 1979
No British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Just one winner aged 11+ (109 have tried) since 1994

4.40pm – Doom Bar Sefton Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m110y ITV

2018 Winner: SANTINI (6/4 fav odds)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico De Boinville

14/16 – Had run within the last 35 days
12/16 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
10/16 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
7/16 – Won their last race
4/16 – Favourites that won
2/16 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/16 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (92%)
21 of the last 24 (88%) won at least twice over hurdles before
20 of the last 26 (77%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
13 of the last 25 (52%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
13 of the last 19 (68%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

del roy

The Randox Health Topham Chase

Grade 3 handicap chase, £140,000 Total Prize Fund . Friday, April 5, 2019, 2m 5f 19yds over the Grand National fences. For five-year-olds and upwards. Penalties: after March 24, a winner of a chase 4lb; no penalty to increase a horse's weight above 11st 12lb. Entries closed March 19, entries revealed March 20 (76 entries), six-day confirmations March 30, final declarations 10am April 4. Maximum field 30 runners.



Ultragold (Colin Tizzard) has won the Randox Health Topham Handicap Chase for the last two years, including at 50/1 in 2017, and the 11-year-old is among 76 entries for this year's edition.

Ultragold has the opportunity to emulate Always Waining (2010, 2011, 2012), the only triple winner of the Randox Health Topham Handicap Chase, though connections have indicated that he is more likely to contest the £1-million Randox Health Grand National on Saturday, April 6.

Champion Jump trainer Nicky Henderson has five Randox Health Topham Handicap Chase triumphs to his name and recently won three successive renewals with Triolo D'Alene (2013), Ma Filleule (2014) and Rajdhani Express (2015).

The Lambourn handler has 10 entries in total, the most of any trainer, including G3 Ultima Handicap Chase victor Beware The Bear and likely top-weight Janika, who took second in the G3 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate at Cheltenham on March 14.

Willie Mullins accounts for three of the 11 Irish-trained entries this year, with his team including dual G3 scorer Cadmium and Leinster National third Bellow Mome. No Irish-trained horse has captured the Randox Health Topham Chase since Cregg House in 2005.

Gordon Elliott has Irish Grand National hero General Principle among three entries, while Henry De Bromhead is double-handed with Sub Lieutenant and Valseur Lido. All three horses are owned by Gigginstown House Stud.

Co Kildare handler Peter Fahey is targeting the Randox Health Topham Handicap Chase with classy performer Peregrine Run.

A G2 winner over hurdles at Cheltenham in November, 2016, Peregrine Run has since won five of his 11 chase starts. The nine-year-old enjoyed a fruitful campaign in the early part of this season, winning a competitive handicap chase at Killarney in August and the Listed M.W. Hickey Memorial Chase at Wexford in October. He has not raced since finishing fourth behind Snow Falcon in a G2 contest for second-season chasers at Down Royal on November 3.

Fahey revealed: "Peregrine Run is in good form. He will have a run over hurdles at Thurles this weekend and that will hopefully leave him spot on for Aintree.

"We had a good time of it with him in the earlier in the season. We wanted to give him a winter break but, with the way things worked out with the ground over here, we probably ended up giving him a break at the wrong time.

"The last time he ran in handicap, I thought he was very impressive at Killarney. I am looking forward to getting him back in a handicap - he is a quick, accurate jumper and I think the Topham will suit provided the ground is in his favour."

Other high-profile entries for the Randox Health Topham Handicap Chase include Double Shuffle (Tom George) and recent G3 Greatwood Gold Cup scorer San Benedeto, one of six entries for Paul Nicholls.

del roy

This is the schedule for Irish horses:

http://www.hri-ras.ie/Programmes/190...th%20March.pdf

madmoose

Look forward to seeing Band of Outlaws beat the Triumph winner in the Juvenile race on the Thursday.

RivetingRoger

del roy wrote: »

This is the schedule for Irish horses:

http://www.hri-ras.ie/Programmes/190...th%20March.pdf

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Mostly Harmless

del roy wrote: »

The Randox Health Topham Chase

Grade 3 handicap chase, £140,000 Total Prize Fund . Friday, April 5, 2019, 2m 5f 19yds over the Grand National fences. For five-year-olds and upwards. Penalties: after March 24, a winner of a chase 4lb; no penalty to increase a horse's weight above 11st 12lb. Entries closed March 19, entries revealed March 20 (76 entries), six-day confirmations March 30, final declarations 10am April 4. Maximum field 30 runners.



Ultragold (Colin Tizzard) has won the Randox Health Topham Handicap Chase for the last two years, including at 50/1 in 2017, and the 11-year-old is among 76 entries for this year's edition.

Ultragold has the opportunity to emulate Always Waining (2010, 2011, 2012), the only triple winner of the Randox Health Topham Handicap Chase, though connections have indicated that he is more likely to contest the £1-million Randox Health Grand National on Saturday, April 6.

Champion Jump trainer Nicky Henderson has five Randox Health Topham Handicap Chase triumphs to his name and recently won three successive renewals with Triolo D'Alene (2013), Ma Filleule (2014) and Rajdhani Express (2015).

The Lambourn handler has 10 entries in total, the most of any trainer, including G3 Ultima Handicap Chase victor Beware The Bear and likely top-weight Janika, who took second in the G3 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate at Cheltenham on March 14.

Willie Mullins accounts for three of the 11 Irish-trained entries this year, with his team including dual G3 scorer Cadmium and Leinster National third Bellow Mome. No Irish-trained horse has captured the Randox Health Topham Chase since Cregg House in 2005.

Gordon Elliott has Irish Grand National hero General Principle among three entries, while Henry De Bromhead is double-handed with Sub Lieutenant and Valseur Lido. All three horses are owned by Gigginstown House Stud.

Co Kildare handler Peter Fahey is targeting the Randox Health Topham Handicap Chase with classy performer Peregrine Run.

A G2 winner over hurdles at Cheltenham in November, 2016, Peregrine Run has since won five of his 11 chase starts. The nine-year-old enjoyed a fruitful campaign in the early part of this season, winning a competitive handicap chase at Killarney in August and the Listed M.W. Hickey Memorial Chase at Wexford in October. He has not raced since finishing fourth behind Snow Falcon in a G2 contest for second-season chasers at Down Royal on November 3.

Fahey revealed: "Peregrine Run is in good form. He will have a run over hurdles at Thurles this weekend and that will hopefully leave him spot on for Aintree.

"We had a good time of it with him in the earlier in the season. We wanted to give him a winter break but, with the way things worked out with the ground over here, we probably ended up giving him a break at the wrong time.

"The last time he ran in handicap, I thought he was very impressive at Killarney. I am looking forward to getting him back in a handicap - he is a quick, accurate jumper and I think the Topham will suit provided the ground is in his favour."

Other high-profile entries for the Randox Health Topham Handicap Chase include Double Shuffle (Tom George) and recent G3 Greatwood Gold Cup scorer San Benedeto, one of six entries for Paul Nicholls.

Think you should credit The Irish Field for this:
https://www.theirishfield.ie/news-topham-the-target-for-peregrine-run-449907/

mirwillbeback

Emitom.

Wherever he runs.

mirwillbeback

Emitom.

Wherever he runs.

IAMAMORON

He certainly looks progressive, thanks for sorting that out.

https://www.irishracing.com/horse?name=Emitom&prt=568948

TheMilkyPirate

Altior out of the Melling. Dirt. Will walk all over a small field in the celebration chase now instead.

Was looking forward to seeing him up in distance

WicklowBrave

Cyrname’s owners have any balls they should go to Sandown and take on Altior.

Plasandrunt

Why the fascination in sending Altior up in trip? He's one of the greatest 2mile chasers of all time, who cares if he can go further?

WicklowBrave

Plasandrunt wrote: »

Why the fascination in sending Altior up in trip? He's one of the greatest 2mile chasers of all time, who cares if he can go further?

What is the point of horse racing if it is not pushing the limits of the thoroughbred? We know how good he is over 2 miles, would you not want to see if he could win a Gold Cup?

Plasandrunt

Not at the risk of ruining the horse no, I always go back to Azertyioup who i genuinely believe was better than Sprinter Sacre and Altior. The bowed to the pressure to run him further, he ran in the King George and was never the same horse. Denman, Imperial Commander, and Coneygree were never the same horse after their gold cup wins and went out with a damp squib.

I remember they wanted to send Sprinter Sacre further too and the owners resisted and it paid off cos he went off like a true champ. Would you say his legacy is tainted because he never went further than 2m?

jkbkhhho7t

considering altiors 2 mile runs this season he wont be winning them next year, so a step up in trip for an older horse is the obvious thing to do

Plasandrunt

must have missed all these top quality 2m chasers coming through that have Altior running scared

jkbkhhho7t

Plasandrunt wrote: »

must have missed all these top quality 2m chasers coming through that have Altior running scared

probably did seeing as you know nothing about horse racing

piplip87

Altior not running. Could a trip to Kildare at the end of the month be on the cards. Would be surlely worth the ticket price alone.

Plasandrunt

jkbkhhho7t wrote: »

probably did seeing as you know nothing about horse racing

hahaha nice to see you back up your original comment with some solid points.

Itziger

Jesus, for the life of me I can't understand this obsession with Altior moving up. If he does, fair enough, but listening to some fellas here you'd think it was in his contract!!

It's true he didn't look as sharp as normal in the CC but he won handily enough all the same. I'd have liked to see him at Aintree but it wouldn't have told us much.

Andrew00

The way I see it, Altior has established himself as one of the all time great chasers.

If he steps up in trip and happens to lose he'll be called a fraud and won't be seen as an all time great. I'd love to see him step up but can see why Hendo and connections are sceptical

IAMAMORON

Apart from anything else, the Aintree festival is a perennial graveyard for Cheltenham winners. There will be loads of value going against the market next week. Apart from the horses peaking three weeks earlier, Aintree as a track is a completely different animal to Cheltenham. The straight is a good half mile long, it is flat as pancake. All the races will be run at a relentless gallop, some horses will have had enough for the year, even the best ones.

I don't or cannot remember too many horses that have done the Queen Mother /Melling Chase double in recent memory either. Maybe Moscow Flyer or Sprinter Sacre , but I am not sure tbh.

WicklowBrave

It is in the ‘contract’ though let’s be honest. If Altior was trained by Paul Nicholls he’d have hacked up in the King George and gone off 8/11 fav in the Gold Cup and probably won. There are levels to this game.

TheMilkyPirate

Plasandrunt wrote: »

Not at the risk of ruining the horse no, I always go back to Azertyioup who i genuinely believe was better than Sprinter Sacre

Azertyioup was a fantastic horse but let's not lose the run of ourselves here. Sprinter is an all time great.

abarkie

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Apart from anything else, the Aintree festival is a perennial graveyard for Cheltenham winners. There will be loads of value going against the market next week. Apart from the horses peaking three weeks earlier, Aintree as a track is a completely different animal to Cheltenham. The straight is a good half mile long, it is flat as pancake. All the races will be run at a relentless gallop, some horses will have had enough for the year, even the best ones.

Possibly the fairest track in the country and Thursday is almost certainly the best day's racing of the year

Earendil

abarkie wrote: »

Possibly the fairest track in the country and Thursday is almost certainly the best day's racing of the year

Agreed, love it.

Plasandrunt

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Azertyioup was a fantastic horse but let's not lose the run of ourselves here. Sprinter is an all time great.

absolutely no doubt it and I'm not trying to say that Azertyioup is a better horse based on their racing achievements, just that if you took all 3 horses at their peak, which is probably just after Azertyioup and Sprinter Sacre won their first (and only in The Nicholls horse case) CC and Altior after his second, that Azertyioup was the most impressive of the three.

Jessica Harrington said in her book on Moscow Flyer that Azertyioup running in the King George was a huge factor in Moscow Flyer regaining his CC crown because he put so much into the race and never really recovered.

yaboya1

Plasandrunt wrote: »

absolutely no doubt it and I'm not trying to say that Azertyioup is a better horse based on their racing achievements, just that if you took all 3 horses at their peak, which is probably just after Azertyioup and Sprinter Sacre won their first (and only in The Nicholls horse case) CC and Altior after his second, that Azertyioup was the most impressive of the three.

Jessica Harrington said in her book on Moscow Flyer that Azertyioup running in the King George was a huge factor in Moscow Flyer regaining his CC crown because he put so much into the race and never really recovered.

Azertyioup's only rival in his CC fell 4 out, so it was hard not to be impressive against what was left.

If the KG was to blame for him not regaining his crown, what was the excuse when Moscow Flyer beat him comfortably at Sandown three weeks before the KG?

PhuckHugh2

Lets not get silly here. Azertyioup wasnt even Nicholls best 2 miler never mind being better than Sprinter...

Andrew00

Cant see Defi Du Seuil beaten in the first on Thursday. Different class to opposition unless La Bague Au Roi shows up

handsfree2

Aintree hurdle.

Chitebello sticks out as a good bet here. He ran to a good or of 156 which I think could be good enough to win this.

I have buvaur dair at 151/152 based on his runs at Christmas and against vision Des Flos.
I have melon at 150 for his champion hurdle performance and everything that came behind him as lower than that.
Supasundae is not the horse of last year.
Nothing else stands out like a threat other than faugheen and I wouldn't be convinced that flat speed track would suit.

handsfree2

Betway bowl

I'm looking at kemboy here. He performed well in a well run race in leopardstown over Christmas and he will be relatively fresh after unseating his rider at Cheltenham.

Clan Des doesn't appeal after his run at Cheltenham.

I believe that the rest are held by these two.

handsfree2

Juvenile Hurdle

Fakir D'ou looks like huge value given that he was practically fav in the supreme.

longshotvalue

handsfree2 wrote: »

Juvenile Hurdle

Fakir D'ou looks like huge value given that he was practically fav in the supreme.

Really convinced about him as well i have to say.

RivetingRoger

Like Fakir also, was presuming he was gonna go NR given the price

RivetingRoger

handsfree2 wrote: »

Betway bowl

I'm looking at kemboy here. He performed well in a well run race in leopardstown over Christmas and he will be relatively fresh after unseating his rider at Cheltenham.

Clan Des doesn't appeal after his run at Cheltenham.

I believe that the rest are held by these two.

Agree re Kemboy
Bristol and Clan both ran tough races a few weeks back
Kemboy looks a smart bet to me

RivetingRoger

handsfree2 wrote: »

Aintree hurdle.

Chitebello sticks out as a good bet here. He ran to a good or of 156 which I think could be good enough to win this.

I have buvaur dair at 151/152 based on his runs at Christmas and against vision Des Flos.
I have melon at 150 for his champion hurdle performance and everything that came behind him as lower than that.
Supasundae is not the horse of last year.
Nothing else stands out like a threat other than faugheen and I wouldn't be convinced that flat speed track would suit.

Nothing we have seen in 12 months suggest BD should be 10/11 for this race, cant back it

Be interested to see what Ruby picks. Personally thought Faugheen ran very well for 2m of the stayers and maybe even 2m4 but the last 3/4 caught him, so that would lean me his way...but...Ruby said after that he never felt Faugheen was getting past Sam Spinner so I am not sure what to think.

Beni unlikely to run I would say

Melon is shortening and Faugheen drifting

Would anyone be surprised if faugheen and Beni are NR and wait for Punchestown

Andrew00

La Bague au Roi looks solid at 2/1 I think up against this lot and kalasinokov the most overrated chaser in training

Slattsy

Aramon my bet of the weekend once the ground has some good in it.

handsfree2

Andrew00 wrote: »

La Bague au Roi looks solid at 2/1 I think up against this lot and kalasinokov the most overrated chaser in training

I was looking around mengli khan for this but it could be a speculative effort.

handsfree2

Slattsy wrote: »

Aramon my bet of the weekend once the ground has some good in it.

I was thinking that he'd be a max bet too.

RivetingRoger

greatrex double
le bague and emitom

akelly02

handsfree2 wrote: »

Aintree hurdle.

Chitebello sticks out as a good bet here. He ran to a good or of 156 which I think could be good enough to win this.

I have buvaur dair at 151/152 based on his runs at Christmas and against vision Des Flos.
I have melon at 150 for his champion hurdle performance and everything that came behind him as lower than that.
Supasundae is not the horse of last year.
Nothing else stands out like a threat other than faugheen and I wouldn't be convinced that flat speed track would suit.

Buvair running to 151 must be a joke ?

akelly02

handsfree2 wrote: »

Betway bowl

I'm looking at kemboy here. He performed well in a well run race in leopardstown over Christmas and he will be relatively fresh after unseating his rider at Cheltenham.

Clan Des doesn't appeal after his run at Cheltenham.

I believe that the rest are held by these two.

That leapordstown race was probably the exact opposite of a well run race, I’m very confused

Nulty

handsfree2 wrote: »

Aintree hurdle.

Chitebello sticks out as a good bet here. He ran to a good or of 156 which I think could be good enough to win this.

I have buvaur dair at 151/152 based on his runs at Christmas and against vision Des Flos.
I have melon at 150 for his champion hurdle performance and everything that came behind him as lower than that.
Supasundae is not the horse of last year.
Nothing else stands out like a threat other than faugheen and I wouldn't be convinced that flat speed track would suit.

I'd have Silver Streak in a match bet with Chti'bello.

handsfree2

akelly02 wrote: »

Buvair running to 151 must be a joke ?

No joke, when did he run to a better mark? His three runs this year were

1. 7l defeat of samcro. What rating would this achieve now?
2. Nk defeat to 152 rated verdana blue.
3. 1.5 l defeat of 152 vision Des Flos. This is the same vision Des Flos that got beaten by grand sancy. I'd drop that performance to mid 140s.
4. Fell Cheltenham.

handsfree2

akelly02 wrote: »

That leapordstown race was probably the exact opposite of a well run race, I’m very confused

Well run by kemboy, he took the race by the scruff of the neck when the pace collapsed.

handsfree2

Nulty wrote: »

I'd have Silver Streak in a match bet with Chti'bello.

That's fair enough. He finished 15l behind a 162 rated champion hurdle winner and was run to place which put him well below Chti'bello in my opinion.

The thing that impressed me with Chti'bello in the county was how well he finished. Historically he would travel well and cut out towards the finish.

Francie Barrett

There has been a ground change at Aintree after a dry night, with the National course now good to soft and the Mildmay and hurdle tracks good to soft, good in places.

Excellent news for Verdana Blue.

RivetingRoger

Francie Barrett wrote: »

There has been a ground change at Aintree after a dry night, with the National course now good to soft and the Mildmay and hurdle tracks good to soft, good in places.

Excellent news for Verdana Blue.

Benie defo won't run so

HarshOstrich

Whoever is backing shtibello must like losing money, The double champ wins if he jumps well.