Technical / Discussion Tropical Cyclones 2018-2019

YanSno

I thought I'd open a thread for anyone who has an interest in Tropical Cyclones.it's currently system number 6. There is also a high probability of another system just north east of Madagascar.

During the past few hours, the tropical depression has intensified into a moderate tropical storm and at 2000 hours, it has been named 'FUNANI' by the Mauritius Meteorological Services.

At 2200 hours, moderate tropical storm 'FUNANI' was centered in latitude 16.1 degrees South and longtitude 64.3 degrees East. It continues to move in a general south-westerly direction at about 12 km/h.

There are indications that 'FUNANI' will recurve towards the south-east by tomorrow morning. This change in trajectory is likely to bring the centre closer to a tiny island called Rodrigues. Outer cloud bands associated with 'Funani' have started to cross the island giving some showers. The weather at Rodrigues will continue to deteriorate significantly as from now on.

YanSno

System no7 was named Gelena this afternoon. It's forecast to take a south easterly direction.currently with gusts up to 120km/h. With sea temps over 28c i would expect further intensification for both systems. It will be one storm after the other for the tiny island Rodrigues with a population of around 40k


The eye wall starting to look distinctive


Image received from Rodrigues Island

YanSno

Tropical storm Gelena has intensified into an intense tropical cyclone cat 4 equivalent. With sea temps over 28 and lots of moisture it's expected to become a super cyclone with winds exceeding 300km/h 50k around the radius. It was centered at about 660 km to the north-north-west of Mauritius, that is in latitude 15.0 degrees South and longitude 54.4 degrees East. It is moving in a south-south-easterly direction at about 12 km/h. Quite impressive intensification going on.

YanSno

Latest information shows that Gelena has picked up in intensity and has become an Intense tropical cyclone again. It's located in latitude 17.8 degrees South and longitude 58.5 degrees East. It is moving in a south-easterly direction at a speed of about 20 km/h. It's expected to pass at it's closest point 50km south coast of rodrigues island. The last reports i received it was gusting 280km/h winds on sea. Pressure at the centre is 945mb. I pray for all in rodrigues.

YanSno

Latest update:
SYSTEM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
NAME GELENA
POSITION NEAR 18° 6 S - 60° 4 E 09/02/2019 1200 UTC
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 HPA
MAXIMUM AVERAGE WIND (10 mn) NEAR THE CENTRE 110 KT (200 KM/H)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND (1 mn) NEAR THE CENTRE 120 KT (220 KM/H)
GUST MAXI 150 KT (280 KM/H)
CI NUMBER (DVORAK
CI 6.5-
MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS
ESE 15 KT (28 KM/H)

YanSno

According to my sources in Rodrigues Island there has been a drastic pressure drop, communications has been lost and a total blackout of the whole island. It's currently gusting 115km/h and should be expecting in the next 2 hours sustain winds with gusts over 180km/h. Pressure is down to 935mb. My prayers

Gaoth Laidir

Rodrigues should be just inside the 64-knot winds from around now as the centre passes to its south.

YanSno

Rodrigues is currently on it's highest alerts, winds gusting over 120km/h has been recorded throughout the island thus meets level 4 warning. The good news is moving rapidly in a ESE at 30km/h.

YanSno

Gelena passed at it's closest point at around 35km south of rodrigues this morning at 0400 local time.Cyclonic conditions prevailed for more than 6hours. It's moving away at an accelerated speed of 32km/h. 75% of the population has no electricity, communications is very limited at the moment and damage evaluation hasn't been done yet.
Gusts recorded 07h00 when Gelena was moving away at 90km:

Pointe Canon: 165 km/h
Montagne du Sable: 137 km/h
Plaine Corail : 151 km/h
Patate Theophile: 162 Km/h
Citronelle: 148 km/h

Data for 0400 is not available when Gelena was at it's closest point. I will update once available.

Some of the damages caused

Gaoth Laidir

YanSno wrote: »

Gusts recorded 07h00 when Gelena was moving away at 90km:

Pointe Canon: 165 km/h
Montagne du Sable: 137 km/h
Plaine Corail : 151 km/h
Patate Theophile: 162 Km/h
Citronelle: 148 km/h

Where do you get those data?

YanSno

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Where do you get those data?

The 0700 bulletin that was issued by Mauritius Meteo Service. It was live radio data communication, It's has now been updated as there is no cyclone warning in force.Also lowest pressure recorded was 933hpa at pointe canon. Full report of Gelena will soon be available on the website. Will post the link

YanSno

Rather quiet for the next 2 weeks with almost no activity.The next MJO phase looks very promising and lots of activity expected.
Tropical cyclones and electric storms likely to occur start of March.It indicates a humid phase.

YanSno

Powerful and extremely dangerous Tropical Cyclone Idai is barrelling towards Central Mozambique with imminent landfall within 24 hours near the port city of Beira (population 530k). This storm has already triggered torrential rainfall that's lead to over 100 fatalities in southern Malawi and Mozambique. I'm concerned that its slow forward movement will only cause more flooding, not to mention the extreme wind threat facing coastal regions.

As the outer rain-bands reach the shoreline of Central Mozambique, all final life and property saving measures should be nearing completion within the next 12 hours. Flying debris, flash flooding, tornadoes and destructive waves will become widespread as the eye of the storm makes its final approach.

I pray for Mozambique

YanSno

Low pressure Invest 93 is expected to intensify into future tropical depression Joaninha. Models are bringing the centre close to Rodrigues Island again. This system is expected further intensification and with a big diameter, so not good news for rodrigues

YanSno

Idai caused substantial damage in Mozambique last week and death which is likely to exceed the 1000. Meanwhile LP which was located south west of Diego garcia has intensified into a Tropical Depression and was named Joaninha this morning . Current estimated pressure is 992hpa. With favourable conditions and warm sea surface temperature above 28c, Joaninha is expected to intensify further into an intense tropical cyclone over the coming days . Both Gfs and ecmwf is bringing the centre very close to Rodrigues Island. This could be a memorable one as in terms of big diameter. I will be flowing this one closely for my family who are currently living on the island. Population of Rodrigues is around 34,000.

Donegal Storm

Bloody hell, hope your family are alright, are they planning on staying on the island?

Must be scary being on such a small speck of land with a huge storm like that headed your way

YanSno

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Bloody hell, hope your family are alright, are they planning on staying on the island?

Must be scary being on such a small speck of land with a huge storm like that headed your way

Yeah they will be staying on the island, most infrastructure and houses are built for these types of events but they recently had winds gusting over 160kmph and they still recovering from the last one so this could be twice as bad. I can tell you it is scary my last experience of a cyclone was back in 2002 where wind gusts were over 210kmph and it was catastrophic. I pray and hope that it will not be as bad

YanSno

Latest update show Joaninha is currently undergoing explosive intensification and it's currently gusting over 140kmph at sea.

YanSno

Joaninha has been making a very slow movement towards the south south west at around 5kmph, it has been stationary during the day while gathering strength. Now it's currently gusting over 150kmph over sea. Joaninha is approximately 390km North of rodrigues and is expected to pass over the island on Monday night. Models are still projecting a direct hit and if that's the case rodrigues will experience a lull for around 3 hours as the centre passes over the island.

YanSno

Joaninha is now a Tropical cyclone ( cat 2). It has remained almost stationary during the last 12 hours. 0600 hours it was still located at a distance of about 370 km to the north-north-west of Rodrigues, in latitude 16.9 degrees south and longitude 61.6 degrees east. The central pressure is estimated to be around 970 hPa and gusts near the centre are of the order of 170 km/h.

However, it is expected to move slowly towards the south and then recurve towards the south-east as from tonight.Joaninha will approach Rodrigues while intensifying further and represents a serious threat to the Island.Latest sat images suggest that the eye wall is starting to look more distinctive

YanSno

At 0600 hours, the tropical cyclone Joaninha was centred at about 230 km to the north-north-west of Rodrigues, that is in latitude 17.7 degrees south and longitude 62.4 degrees east. It is now moving towards the south-south-east at about 05 km/h. The central pressure is estimated at around 955 hpa and gusts near the centre are of the order of 200 km/h.
Rodrigues will start feeling cyclonic conditions as from this afternoon.

YanSno

Current situation on rodrigues island. The Weather has slowly started to deteriorate. Level 3 warning is currently in force

Wine Goddess

I really hope your family are safe Yansno, and that the island is not hit as badly as forecast.

YanSno

And it has begun, recent observations show that gusts higher than 120 km/h are being recorded at Rodrigues. The highest gusts recorded so far are 137 km/h at Montagne du Sable and 122 km/h at Pointe Canon. Cyclonic conditions now exist at Rodrigues, highest level 4 warning is currently in force. Current estimated distance is around 200km North of the island.

YanSno

Cyclonic conditions are prevailing over rodrigues island and may last until tomorrow afternoon. Intermittent rain will persist and will cause water accumulation and local flooding. The sea is phenomenal with heavy swells causing floods of low-lying coastal areas.

Rodrigues is about to enter some very extreme conditions

The highest gusts recorded so far are as follows:

Montagne du Sable: 144 km/h.

Pointe Canon: 137 km/h.

Patate Theophile: 130 km/h.

Plaine Corail: 137 km/h.

Citronelle: 126 km/h.

YanSno

Latest update on Joaninha

Movement: South East at 8km/hr
Distance from Rodrigues : 160kms
The highest gusts recorded so far are as follows:
Montagne du Sable: 158 km/h.

Pointe Canon: 150 km/h.

Patate Theophile: 151 km/h.

Plaine Corail: 133 km/h.

Citronelle: 140 km/h.

Joaninha is gathering strength on approach

YanSno

Latest satellite observations indicate that Joaninha has intensified into an Intense Tropical Cyclone . Furthermore, barometric pressure at Pointe Canon and Plaine Corail Meteorological Stations is now falling rapidly which indicates that Intense Tropical Cyclone Joaninha is dangerously coming close to Rodrigues. At 2100 hours Joaninha was centred at about 110 km to the north of Rodrigues, that is in latitude 18.7 degrees south and longitude 63.6 degrees east. It is now moving towards the south-east at about 10 km/h and it is expected that it will pass at its closest distance of about 30 km to the north-east of Rodrigues around mid-day tomorrow. Gusts near the centre of the cyclone are estimated to be around 225 km/h.

YanSno

The latest observations from Rodrigues indicate that the Intense tropical cyclone Joaninha is passing at its nearest point from the island. At 0600 Hours it was centred at about 70 km to the north east of Pointe Cotton, that is in latitude 19.1 degrees south and longitude 64.1 degrees east. It is moving in a general southeasterly direction at about 10 km/h. Gusts near the centre of the cyclone are estimated to be of the order of 250 km/h.

Highest gusts recorded so far on the island was 184kmph

80% of the population has no electricity

Wine Goddess

Hopefully your family are ok and in shelter. I don't know how I'd be if it were my family. Let us know how they get on. I'm praying for them.

YanSno

Wine Goddess wrote: »

Hopefully your family are ok and in shelter. I don't know how I'd be if it were my family. Let us know how they get on. I'm praying for them.

Thank you for caring. The good news is that they are all fine and lastest update shows that barometric pressure is slowly rising which means the cyclone is moving away. It's has been a scary 24 hours for them as they described . They have no electricity nor water, community centres are open providing them with basic needs in case of emergency, authorities has advised not to venture outside as cyclonic conditions will still prevail until the afternoon. It's still currently gusting around 140kmph. I will update with images later on.

YanSno

No cyclone warning is in force in Rodrigues. Joaninha is moving away from the island. It's has been a tough night for the population after they've had 28 hours of cyclonic conditions.
99% of the population has no electricity and communications are down. There has been substantial damage caused by falling trees thus power lines are down. It will take a while to recover from this and back to normality.
Below are some images of the situation in Rodrigues.

YanSno

Intense Tropical Cyclone Joaninha at it's closest point to Rodrigues.

Wine Goddess

YanSno wrote: »

Thank you for caring. The good news is that they are all fine and lastest update shows that barometric pressure is slowly rising which means the cyclone is moving away. It's has been a scary 24 hours for them as they described . They have no electricity nor water, community centres are open providing them with basic needs in case of emergency, authorities has advised not to venture outside as cyclonic conditions will still prevail until the afternoon. It's still currently gusting around 140kmph. I will update with images later on.

So relieved they are ok although I can see conditions are still very challenging. Hopefully it won't take too long to get everything back to normal.