Tyestes Day

longshotvalue

3:00 Gowran

Valseur Lido is a pick of mine for the national after a very good run last year with a big burden. He isn’t even in the betting for this year’s one so maybe he will be trying here. He has hardly run over 3 miles since his grade 1 days and I think he will get competitive today. Its not out of the question he is the classiest horse in this field and of this mark he is great value

1 Point EW Ladbrokes 33/1 5 places 28/1 Betfair, and also 6 places ast 25/1 with paddy and sky.

1:50 Gowran

Mala Beach seems interesting here at a huge price. He has a great record around here and although he is after along layoff 40/1 makes it worthwhile. .

1 Point EW 40/1 Generally

The real mccoy 91

Borice was quite well touted coming over for the paddy power at Christmas made quite a mistake at the first that day on a decent weight today and I've always had a soft spot for denis o Regan 16/1 with 6 places on pp is a play for me

show me the money.1

I think Goulane Chosen can go close off bottom weight. @40/1

Slattsy

Is Limini worth a bet off in a very open race, up in trip. No issues with ground. She's not always going to be a 10 poke!

Gavin "shels"

Dounikos at 16s for me in the big one.

Going to have a tiny dabble on Don Poli each way at 33s in the Galmoy Hurdle - wide open aside from Percy.

The Mig

Some Neck in the big one for me.
Also fancy Kellyiscool in 2.25. Was well backed 2 runs ago when it slipped up and the saddle slipped the last day.
Will also add Killultagh Vic in the 1.50 for an e/w trixie

akelly02

about 50 different fancies here already

not good

BumperD

I’d be with valseur lido too ( not backing today waiting for weekend fun)

Gavin "shels"

akelly02 wrote: »

about 50 different fancies here already

not good

Someones bound to win!

Massimo Tara

Gone for monbeg notorious myself, feeling he'll hack up here and be a big player in the Gold Cup in March. No finer pilot on board either

show me the money.1

show me the money.1 wrote: »

I think Goulane Chosen can go close off bottom weight. @40/1

NR now

Massimo Tara

akelly02 wrote: »

about 50 different fancies here already

not good

It's a cracking race

Gavin "shels"

Gavin shels wrote: »

Going to have a tiny dabble on Don Poli each way at 33s in the Galmoy Hurdle - wide open aside from Percy.

Pulled up half way around... not promising at all.

Great win by Percy - flattened a bit after the last two hurdles but pushed on to win.

Joe_ Public

Gavin "shels" wrote: »

Pulled up half way around... not promising at all.

Great win by Percy - flattened a bit after the last two hurdles but pushed on to win.

Looked very good to me, always pulling out a bit more of he needed it. More than satisfactory I would say.

The Mig

Percy is just class. Love the horse

NaiveMelodies

A pure machine. Love him

RivetingRoger

A feckin machine! What a horse.

Joe_ Public

Great owner and trainer too, no disrespect to the usual crew but so refreshing to hear a different voice in winners enclosure every now & again.

Gavin "shels"

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Looked very good to me, always pulling out a bit more of he needed it. More than satisfactory I would say.

Would say more than satisfactory too - Kelly/Russell should be happy he's got a run under his belt now this season. 11/4 in Powers for the GC now.

longshotvalue

RivetingRoger wrote: »

A feckin machine! What a horse.

Not sure Machine is the right word there. Killultagh Vic is the one to take out of that race. Worst price fav for the cold cup in years (its not that he cant win its just a mad price.

This is a decent 3 miles hurdle in fairness, but he is still and 8/1 chance in March really.

lemush

aidankkk wrote: »

Not sure Machine is the right word there. Killultagh Vic is the one to take out of that race. Worst price fav for the cold cup in years (its not that he cant win its just a mad price.

This is a decent 3 miles hurdle in fairness, but he is still and 8/1 chance in March really.

If you think Percy is an 8/1 chance for the GC then there are no words. KV came on tonnes for his reappearance.

Gavin "shels"

Wouldn't be saying he's an 8/1 but he's definitely not an 11/4 shot!

Johnny Ward being bypassed by Kelly after the win.... Kevin Blake tweeting the video

Aside from anything else he's been dodging the ground he's likely to get on the Friday at Cheltenham all season. Price doesn't make sense to me.

longshotvalue

lemush wrote: »

If you think Percy is an 8/1 chance for the GC then there is no words. KV came on tonnes for his reappearance.

Its a game of opinions, but to win the gold cup after 1 run over hurdles would be some achievement, his actual form doesn't make him fav though. He is maybe the 2nd best irish chaser at the moment or 3rd. (until he proves otherwise).

He also probably needs soft ground in the Gold Cup judging by his best runs.

Dont get me wrong i hope he dots up in march, but he is far too short now.

irish_major

aidankkk wrote: »

Its a game of opinions, but to win the gold cup after 1 run over hurdles would be some achievement, his actual form doesn't make him fav though. He is maybe the 2nd best irish chaser at the moment or 3rd. (until he proves otherwise).

He also probably needs soft ground in the Gold Cup judging by his best runs.

Dont get me wrong i hope he dots up in march, but he is far too short now.

Hopefully get about 5/1 on the day. His runs at cheltenham are impossible to ignore, and I think the soft ground is only for minding him, he blew them away in the pertemps on good! I think he's the most likely winner for sure and hopefully he can go out and do it.

NaiveMelodies

aidankkk wrote: »

Its a game of opinions, but to win the gold cup after 1 run over hurdles would be some achievement, his actual form doesn't make him fav though. He is maybe the 2nd best irish chaser at the moment or 3rd. (until he proves otherwise).

He also probably needs soft ground in the Gold Cup judging by his best runs.

Dont get me wrong i hope he dots up in march, but he is far too short now.

What actual form are you using here as a matter of interest? Not the RSA obviously?

Johner

Robert with the winner in 1984. He knew.

longshotvalue

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

What actual form are you using here as a matter of interest? Not the RSA obviously?

Not really that his best form obviously, but even that doesn't make him the best 3 miles chaser.

He obviously has a great chance but at least 5/1 will be available on the day and well know who is and isn't running and that will be far better value.

Sizing John at 16/1 NRNB might be a bet for me at the moment, as he was faultless 2 years ago.

OsmosisJ

Absolute cracking race where you can make a case for near all of them but i going to chance sumos novious 25/1

RivetingRoger

Aidan who are these two Irish 3m chasers superior to Percy??
Based on ?

Current price is very skinny but will go out. Do bookies go BOG on Nrnb?

longshotvalue

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Aidan who are these two Irish 3m chasers superior to Percy??
Based on ?

Current price is very skinny but will go out. Do bookies go BOG on Nrnb?

Sizing John, Road to Respect for sure anyway at the moment, not a fan but Kemboy as well.

Percy pretty obviously has plenty of improvement in him and the others dont. I think he needs another run over fences before going to gold cup.

bludcrazetiger

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Do bookies go BOG on Nrnb?

No, its ante-post betting.

Maybe I am old fashioned but I would like to see him win some graded chases outside novice company. Current total = 0.

Not sure how you can be the best chaser in the country when you aren't even turning up at the start line.

Don't get me wrong, he has every chance in the GC, particularly if the ground is good to soft or worse. But so far it's potential.

Footpad won the Arkle by 14 lengths and has been turned over by the big boys twice.

Francie Barrett

Beating a 152 rated Bapuame over hurdles is not the sort of form I'd be looking for to consider this for the Gold Cup.

RivetingRoger

bludcrazetiger wrote: »

No, its ante-post betting.

On singles?

RivetingRoger

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Beating a 152 rated Bapuame over hurdles is not the sort of form I'd be looking for to consider this for the Gold Cup.

Native river finished 7/8L behind thistlecrack last time out and beaten previous start also
Kemboy has proven nothing
Might Bite gone at the game
R2R just doesn't win races

Where are the form horses?

longshotvalue

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Native river finished 7/8L behind thistlecrack last time out and beaten previous start also
Kemboy has proven nothing
Might Bite gone at the game
R2R just doesn't win races

Where are the form horses?

Kemboy has proven nothing Neither had Percy, but Kemboy walked away with a Grade 1 this year
Might Bite gone at the game Possibly but still has more done and i wouldnt put it past Hendo to have him better come march
R2R just doesn't win races won 2 grade 1s

Any Native River has been coming along nicely, if its soft in March he will be very hard to beat.

famagusta

bludcrazetiger wrote:

No, its ante-post betting.

Bet 365 do

madmoose

Who cares about the run of the form today with Percy, honestly he just needed a spin so a 2nd or 3rd would of been sound to get a run in, to win is even better and shows he’s in rude health. The red mills chase next for him they said.

longshotvalue

madmoose wrote: »

Who cares about the run of the form today with Percy, honestly he just needed a spin so a 2nd or 3rd would of been sound to get a run in, to win is even better and shows he’s in rude health. The red mills chase next for him they said.

Thats great, much better if he has another run before Gold Cup.

paddy no 11

Deleted User wrote: »

Maybe I am old fashioned but I would like to see him win some graded chases outside novice company. Current total = 0.

Not sure how you can be the best chaser in the country when you aren't even turning up at the start line.

Don't get me wrong, he has every chance in the GC, particularly if the ground is good to soft or worse. But so far it's potential.

Footpad won the Arkle by 14 lengths and has been turned over by the big boys twice.

At least percy has a form line through monalee

RivetingRoger

I honestly think percys demolition of monalee and all boum photo last year in the RSA is the best line of form bar NR of course and unless it's an absolute bog which is unlikely I can't see NR win it. Thistlecrack and Bellshill ew also 😉

Angliru

Think Percy is the lay of the festival. Absolute bonkers price.

paddy no 11

Native river will charge home will be in first 4 home regardless

Theres no point complicating this the race will be won by a first time runner who has enough stamina and class they stay ahead of native river and thistlecrack

Contenders are Percy and clan des obeaux and R2R (good ground only)

Would plug for percy at this stage to win, but yes 11/4 is not value

The real mccoy 91

Angliru wrote: »

Think Percy is the lay of the festival. Absolute bonkers price.

Imagine how short he will be if he wins the red mills 6/4ish or so. Love the horse but far too short

NaiveMelodies

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Beating a 152 rated Bapuame over hurdles is not the sort of form I'd be looking for to consider this for the Gold Cup.

So you aren't considering him as it stands?

RivetingRoger

RivetingRoger wrote: »

I honestly think percys demolition of monalee and all boum photo last year in the RSA is the best line of form bar NR of course and unless it's an absolute bog which is unlikely I can't see NR win it. Thistlecrack and Bellshill ew also ��

Sure but it's one line of form in what appear to be his perfect conditions, albeit in the race that probably has the best record as a trial for the GC.

He has every chance of course but the fact remains he has plenty to prove. I mentioned Footpad, we could also talk about Shattered Love - really impressive at the festival last year, nothing of note this year. 33/1 if you fancy her.

I would be worried about the ground also. the Pertemps was 2 years ago and chasing isn't hurdling. 2017 Gold Cup, good. 2016 Gold Cup, good. Will he run on genuine good ground and should he? I'm remembering Last Instalment here.

yaboya1

Not a chance he's anywhere near an 8/1 shot.
What deserves to be shorter than him? Bar Native River, there's very few you could make a case for.

DubInTheWest

Just back from Powers, tip in the shop for Holdenhurst in the next 18.25 Chelmsford I got 8/1 on it backed it ew out of the Most Harmless profits

RivetingRoger

yaboya1 wrote: »

Not a chance he's anywhere near an 8/1 shot.
What deserves to be shorter than him? Bar Native River, there's very few you could make a case for.

That's it in a nutshell. If it's a bog NR would be a deserving fav, based on nothing but his love for mud not for his form.
Percy probably go off 9/2 or so and bar a biblical flood I think it's a good price. As yaboya said, where are all these horses to beat him??

Kauto

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Beating a 152 rated Bapuame over hurdles is not the sort of form I'd be looking for to consider this for the Gold Cup.

Native River wouldn't get within 10L of Bapuame over hurdles id say.