What race will "X" run in at the festival 2019

RivetingRoger

Following on from similar 2018 thread, interested to get a few opinions in these lot...

So, what race will

Footpad
Defil de Seuil
Le Richborough
Apples Jade
Verdana Blue
Un de Sceaux
Min

Run in ?
I am guessing
Ryanair
JLT
Arkle
Mares
Champion Hurdle
Champion Chase
Ryanair

Charlie George

What about apples jade and getabird.

RivetingRoger

Charlie George wrote: »

What about apples jade and getabird.

I incl AJ in that list....

IAMAMORON

Defil de Seuil & Le Richbourg - I would say Hobbs would prefer the Arkle but will do what JP tells him. I would not be surprised if both took their chance in the Arkle TBH. Bookies love the spoofing and waffle which is going to get projected over every inch of newspaper and webpage over the next 7 weeks concerning where either is running. I would wait for the day for both. The current NRNB prices offered by SkyBet are not great.

Apples Jade - Probably the mares hurdle - depends on Laurina I suppose and where she runs - although I do think the latter is massively underpriced for the Champion Hurdle.

Verdana Blue - Will probably take her chance in the Champion hurdle, if she is right.

Un de Sceaux & Min & Footpad - Please note my comments above on pre race waffle. As mentioned the bookies are simply rubbing their hands with glee and excitement over the amount of bull**** and tripe talk that is going to be spewed over every page and preview night over the next 7 weeks. WPM does not even know himself yet. I do not think we have seen the best of Footpad this season. Whichever runs against Altior you can expect to see a bit of value in their price on the day, particularly given the amount of hype (and rightly so) which surrounds Altior. I don't back odds on shots over fences, it has cost me bigtime before.

RivetingRoger

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Defil de Seuil & Le Richbourg - I would say Hobbs would prefer the Arkle but will do what JP tells him. I would not be surprised if both took their chance in the Arkle TBH. Bookies love the spoofing and waffle which is going to get projected over every inch of newspaper and webpage over the next 7 weeks concerning where either is running. I would wait for the day for both. The current NRNB prices offered by SkyBet are not great.

Apples Jade - Probably the mares hurdle - depends on Laurina I suppose and where she runs - although I do think the latter is massively underpriced for the Champion Hurdle.

Verdana Blue - Will probably take her chance in the Champion hurdle, if she is right.

Un de Sceaux & Min & Footpad - Please note my comments above on pre race waffle. As mentioned the bookies are simply rubbing their hands with glee and excitement over the amount of bull**** and tripe talk that is going to be spewed over every page and preview night over the next 7 weeks. WPM does not even know himself yet. I do not think we have seen the best of Footpad this season. Whichever runs against Altior you can expect to see a bit of value in their price on the day, particularly given the amount of hype (and rightly so) which surrounds Altior. I don't back odds on shots over fences, it has cost me bigtime before.

I have a feeling they will give UDS one more go over 2m in the CC and let Footpad into a winnable Ryanair
Min..........i dunno.............

RivetingRoger

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Defil de Seuil & Le Richbourg - I would say Hobbs would prefer the Arkle but will do what JP tells him. I would not be surprised if both took their chance in the Arkle TBH. Bookies love the spoofing and waffle which is going to get projected over every inch of newspaper and webpage over the next 7 weeks concerning where either is running. I would wait for the day for both. The current NRNB prices offered by SkyBet are not great.

Apples Jade - Probably the mares hurdle - depends on Laurina I suppose and where she runs - although I do think the latter is massively underpriced for the Champion Hurdle.

Verdana Blue - Will probably take her chance in the Champion hurdle, if she is right.

Un de Sceaux & Min & Footpad - Please note my comments above on pre race waffle. As mentioned the bookies are simply rubbing their hands with glee and excitement over the amount of bull**** and tripe talk that is going to be spewed over every page and preview night over the next 7 weeks. WPM does not even know himself yet. I do not think we have seen the best of Footpad this season. Whichever runs against Altior you can expect to see a bit of value in their price on the day, particularly given the amount of hype (and rightly so) which surrounds Altior. I don't back odds on shots over fences, it has cost me bigtime before.

Le Rich seems to be going Arkle
Defil SHOULD go Arkle but sounds like its JLT

lemush

Charlie George wrote: »

What about apples jade and getabird.

Getabird won't go to the festival.

dicky dunne

no guarantee that Le Richebourg goes Arkle IMO, was only half a length back from Delta Work in the Drinmore over 2m4f, Defi wont stay a fast run JLT IMO, got collared by Lostintranslation last time after hitting 1.01, possibly the class horsein the Arkle field too if he was to head that direction

RivetingRoger

dicky dunne wrote: »

no guarantee that Le Richebourg goes Arkle IMO, was only half a length back from Delta Work in the Drinmore over 2m4f, Defi wont stay a fast run JLT IMO, got collared by Lostintranslation last time after hitting 1.01, possibly the class horsein the Arkle field too if he was to head that direction

I would agree with you Dicky
For me, Le Richbourg more suited to the JLT and Defil more suited to Arkle

I would have thought the shorter trip in the Arkle is tailor made for Defil to be honest

dicky dunne

RivetingRoger wrote: »

I would agree with you Dicky
For me, Le Richbourg more suited to the JLT and Defil more suited to Arkle

I would have thought the shorter trip in the Arkle is tailor made for Defil to be honest

Arkle looks wide open this year, but based on hurdles rating i think Defi is a few lbs clear of the next best, hoping first time out this year was just a blip as he's jumped much better the next two rounds

RivetingRoger

dicky dunne wrote: »

Arkle looks wide open this year, but based on hurdles rating i think Defi is a few lbs clear of the next best, hoping first time out this year was just a blip as he's jumped much better the next two rounds

Hobbs best chance of a winner
i'd say he will be on his knees to JP

The Mig

Don’t know how you can say LR is more suited to JLT when he was outstayed over 2m4f and was dropped back to 2m and was very impressive. I think they’ll both go Arkle FWIW

RivetingRoger

The Mig wrote: »

Don’t know how you can say LR is more suited to JLT when he was outstayed over 2m4f and was dropped back to 2m and was very impressive. I think they’ll both go Arkle FWIW

To clarify Mig I mean of the 2, if they are to be split I would think Le Richbourg is more likely to stay the JLT
I hope they both go Arkle but all the murmurs seem to suggest JLT for Defil

Gringo180

JP has no quarrels about running his best against each other unlike Rich Ricci. Both will go the Arkle imo.

Whiplash85

DDuS was giving lost in translation 3lbs last time out. He will reverse that result in JLT. Mcmanus won't run both in the Arkle. You can be sure of it.

RivetingRoger

Whiplash85 wrote: »

DDuS was giving lost in translation 3lbs last time out. He will reverse that result in JLT. Mcmanus won't run both in the Arkle. You can be sure of it.

I tend to agree re running both in same race

dicky dunne

where will Winter Escape run? i might be wrong but i thought i see on twitter that his last run was the highest rated novice run in both Ireland and the UK

dicky dunne

dicky dunne wrote: »

where will Winter Escape run? i might be wrong but i thought i see on twitter that his last run was the highest rated novice run in both Ireland and the UK

Found it, was tweeted by Timeform:

Timeform's Top-Rated Novice Chasers (updated 13/01/2019)

156p - WINTER ESCAPE
155 - MASTER DINO
154 - DYNAMITE DOLLARS
153p - DELTA WORK
153p - SANTINI
152p - DEFI DU SEUIL
152p - TOPOFTHEGAME
152 - KNOCKNANUSS
151p - LE RICHEBOURG
151 - LALOR

The Mig

He's a JLT horse for definite I'd say

IAMAMORON

dicky dunne wrote: »

where will Winter Escape run? i might be wrong but i thought i see on twitter that his last run was the highest rated novice run in both Ireland and the UK

He is in my tracker for sure. I would imagine they will find a novice handicap if not the JLT. He has definitely improved for the switch to fences. Horses rarely comeback 100% from injuries or niggles, this one looks to be different. Could be anything. 12-1 Ante Post for the JLT. He could be targeted at the Grade 1 novice chase at Fairyhouse at Easter.

RivetingRoger

IAMAMORON wrote: »

He is in my tracker for sure. I would imagine they will find a novice handicap if not the JLT. He has definitely improved for the switch to fences. Horses rarely comeback 100% from injuries or niggles, this one looks to be different. Could be anything. 12-1 Ante Post for the JLT. He could be targeted at the Grade 1 novice chase at Fairyhouse at Easter.

Something on ATR website recently about them skipping the festival and going to fairyhouse and punchestown wasn't there?

lemush

IAMAMORON wrote: »

He is in my tracker for sure. I would imagine they will find a novice handicap if not the JLT. He has definitely improved for the switch to fences. Horses rarely comeback 100% from injuries or niggles, this one looks to be different. Could be anything. 12-1 Ante Post for the JLT. He could be targeted at the Grade 1 novice chase at Fairyhouse at Easter.

Novice handicap out of the equation considering he's rated 150 by the Irish handicapper.

sitkaspruce

lemush wrote: »

Novice handicap out of the equation considering he's rated 150 by the Irish handicapper.

He was a decent sort for Alan King a few years back and one definitely to keep the right side of.

madmoose

Let’s be honest here Barry will get and want the ride on Le Rich in the Arkle (depends on how he goes again over 2m at Leop) and then want to ride Defi in the JLT as mentioned he gave weight away lto and could reverse the form if ridden a little differently. Winter Escape willntake his JLT entry up alongside Defi but Mark Walsh will be riding that as he has done on 4 chase starts this season.

madmoose

Ok here is one, does Topofthegame go the JLT or The RSA? Think he will be switched to the JLT myself.

RivetingRoger

I see timeform putting up Defil @ 10/1 (PP) for the JLT (7/1 Boyles)

I really really want to back him @10/1 but there is this gnawing doubt in the back of my head that he could yet go Arkle
PP were NRNB on Jan 10th last year
Musta got burnt