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Euromillions 2019

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,863 ✭✭✭Pogue eile


    FWIW the only actual sense in the above post is in regard to the capped Euromillions jackpot which actually makes the draw somewhat +EV. Talk of average totals and odds v evens is complete and utter fiction.

    In very basic english, each specific draw is completely independant of the previous draws and any previous results have absolutely zero affect on any subsequent draw, to believe otherwise is quite simply to not understand the principle of probability or to believe in some sort of conspiracy theory on how the 'random' draw is actually done.

    Also to add in a wider sense that even if there were external factors that influenced each independent draw, the available sample size is far far too small - this is a completely moot point but their seems to be believers!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Pogue eile wrote: »
    FWIW the only actual sense in the above post is in regard to the capped Euromillions jackpot which actually makes the draw somewhat +EV. Talk of average totals and odds v evens is complete and utter fiction.
    In your view.
    Also EM EV is really only increased (dramtically {x10}) on the 5th and final RO assuming current conditions (4x of x2 or more) for 5+1star.

    LOLN: Only 3 fall below expectancy on Ire Lotto, since conception.
    EM: Totals follow bell curves for both main & stars circa 1,000 draws.

    EM EvO: Pattern follows expectations (+/- 2%), for 3v2 or 2v3.
    EM range: No data available (yet), expectation would be 3.5+ decade avg.

    UKL: Most recent rolldown the EV stands, at factor of x5 and up to x10 on lower ranges. Value.

    wQv3vxX.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,863 ✭✭✭Pogue eile


    In your view.
    Also EM EV is really only increased (dramtically {x10}) on the 5th and final RO assuming current conditions (4x of x2 or more) for 5+1star.

    LOLN: Only 3 fall below expectancy on Ire Lotto, since conception.
    EM: Totals follow bell curves for both main & stars circa 1,000 draws.

    EM EvO: Pattern follows expectations (+/- 2%), for 3v2 or 2v3.
    EM range: No data available (yet), expectation would be 3.5+ decade avg.

    UKL: Most recent rolldown the EV stands, at factor of x5 to 10 on lower ranges.



    wQv3vxX.png

    I wish you well Sir with all your new found wealth, fair play!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Pogue eile wrote: »
    I wish you well Sir with all your new found wealth, fair play!
    +1,500 last month, but will accept your late congratulations none the less.








    * Lotto(s) should only be considered as a form of light entertainment or a hobby with very mininal investment (typcially <0.5% net)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,863 ✭✭✭Pogue eile


    I'll give you one thing, if they ever introduce a market for tallking through your hole and failing miserably at trying to sound smart you will truely be a champion!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Pogue eile wrote: »
    I'll give you one thing, if they ever introduce a market for tallking through your hole and failing miserably at trying to sound smart you will truely be a champion!
    Keep the faith there, champ/chump.

    AXJ5u0Q.png...


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,863 ✭✭✭Pogue eile


    Keep the faith there, champ/chump.

    AXJ5u0Q.png...

    Look I probably shouldnt have said anything and my last comment was certainly out of order. Each to their own and all that, and I genuinely hope you are making money.


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,862 Mod ✭✭✭✭inforfun


    MOD

    Please keep it civil

    Oh... you kissed and made up already.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,836 ✭✭✭jacool


    So here we are, for either the last, or second last, draw for €190,000,000.
    Will be back later with my picks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,836 ✭✭✭jacool


    bankroll -218
    going to move that to -250 with these three bets

    15 point double 16,28
    15 point double 20,47
    2 point 4-timer 16,20,28,47

    GLTA tonight. Kind of hoping it rolls over just this last time to allow me "invest the house" Tuesday night :)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Like 47 but only with 23 (not 20), however favour 20 when combined with 23 for a simple pair of doubles.

    Other than those two, have 5 lines of mixed euromill goodness, largely dependant on a few hot zones, and a 4x blockout (which is slightly due).
    63fwDQS.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Rollover!

    Early reports are of x8 winners of the nb (5+1). Only 12 folks managed 5 main balls across Europopland. Blame it on the 4x.
    [ 6 | 9 | 35 | 41 | 44 ] *6*9


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,605 ✭✭✭gctest50


    [ 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 ] *6*7


    has the same chance as anything else coming up though


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,836 ✭✭✭jacool


    Rollover!

    Early reports are of x8 winners of the nb (5+1). Only 12 folks managed 5 main balls across Europopland. Blame it on the 4x.
    [ 6 | 9 | 35 | 41 | 44 ] *6*9
    One Irish person in the 12, and another in the 8.
    50000 for the former and 2,500,000 for the latter. Not to be sneezed at.
    Big play needed Tuesday night so!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Would assume betwen 8-10 winners of 5+1 on Tues, however if these darn 4x balls take a break, could well be 15+.
    4x balls x2 again tonight (should maybe be at avg if 1.0) previous weeks: 2/3/3/1/3/2/1/2/1

    The last dozen pattern/distribution has been cat (really, it almost spells out CAT lol!)
    0tEz2fe.png
    Very heavy upper end weighting.

    Roll on Tuesday, then it's back to simple double/trebles.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,836 ✭✭✭jacool


    bankroll -250

    For tonight I have looked at these from all angles 😊
    Here are my wagers

    Number 1: 10 point single 19 10 points
    Number 2: 2 point patent 19,22,42 14 points
    Number 3: 10 x 0.5 point doubles, 10 x 0.5 point trebles, and 5 x 0.5 point 4-timers from 09,17,29,37,44 stake 12.5 points
    Number 4: 10 x 0.5 point doubles, 10 x 0.5 point trebles, and 5 x 0.5 point 4-timers from 07,13,19,28,42 stake 12.5 points
    Number 5: 1 point treble 04,23,50

    New bankroll -300 points ☹


    GLTA tonight.


    For the €190,000,000, I have just done some Quick Picks !


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Last of these regular shop tickets tonight for a long while (back to the cheaper better value hotpicks).

    Essentially, focus will be on the high teens and low 30's numbers, again hoping for a blockade on the saturated 40's.

    With these type of things, will be doing a mix of 3ev2o (and vice versa), below or around avg totals of 125, and generally 4 decades of spread.
    Other than that due to the sheer odds (in 5+2), luck is likely the 97.5% main factor to winning the jackpot.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,836 ✭✭✭jacool


    and so it ends
    07-10-15-44-49 lucky stars 03-12
    One person in the UK takes the lot, leaving the 4 guys with 5+1, who were looking at €38,000,000 each, now left with (a mere) €5m!

    As for me, typical one single in both lines where a double would have given me the 50 points to cover my stake.
    May as well just add these numbers to the stats, and see where we go.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Guess it's a good enough reason just to stick with the cheaper and easier to obtain hotpicks,
    the 130m/1 odds were always somewhat stacked against winning large.

    The ever recently present 4x balls (one a repeat of last draw) kept the winners low and sporadic.
    Even the (exact) averaging total of 125, standard 3o2e mix, & reasonable 3 decade spread didn't greatly assist anyone.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,836 ✭✭✭jacool


    Pre this bet bankroll -300 points
    Staking tonight 56 points
    Pre draw bankroll -356 points

    bet 5 x 6pt singles
    1 pt. Canadian (26b) 08 - 17 - 21 - 26 – 45
    Won't even explain the logic(?) for this one, but here's hoping for a double minimum :)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Just some hoticks (double-treble-quad) on expected zones, avoiding all high 4x type numbers (except 50 of course).
    Essentially 16-20 group and 32-36. Both 17 & 26 are very favourable secondary choices.
    Hot doubles could be 20&23, 32&34 or even a close treble from the 16-17-18-19-20 array.

    SNLZRWl.png
    Forgot lucky stars are irrelevant now, but had 10&11 circled earlier.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,836 ✭✭✭jacool


    jacool wrote: »
    Pre this bet bankroll -300 points
    Staking tonight 56 points
    Pre draw bankroll -356 points

    bet 5 x 6pt singles
    1 pt. Canadian (26b) 08 - 17 - 21 - 26 – 45
    Won't even explain the logic(?) for this one, but here's hoping for a double minimum :)
    Results in
    02-14-19-42-45 with 05-06 lucky stars.

    That's a single for me, 54 points return.
    New bankroll, - 302 points.

    The jackpot itself wasn't won, by the way.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,836 ✭✭✭jacool


    Small stakes tonight.

    10 point single #23
    10 point single #29
    8 point double #23&#29

    Bankroll moved from -302 to -330.
    GLTA


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    A simplified string chart shows 20s (low, and one or two high teens) and also low-mid 30s tonight may be on the cards. Just did 3 quad lines, for 30k target.

    yHIQCYO.png

    32-36inc is highly favoured, 23 may indeed show up but only use this when coupled with 20 and/or 17.
    16 or 18 also liked. Only low ball with secondary interest would be 5.

    Still very keen on stars 10+11, so did a rare single regular ticket with this and a hot5.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    A simplified string chart shows 20s (low, and one or two high teens) and also low-mid 30s tonight may be on the cards. Just did 3 quad lines, for 30k target.
    32-36inc is highly favoured,
    Hit the crossbar with the quads (32,34 and a 28).

    But luckily when up on a shopping trip, (before €fx rate brexit-deal-normalisation) did a 5 line mixed shop hotpick and landed another treble (2nd in 3mths) on these x3 cold balls. 34 was of special focus as had very low recent freq, coupled with t-90.
    uDclNWo.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,836 ✭✭✭jacool


    This morning was at -330
    Now with this latest bet at -386, if this hits the -500 point it'll be a quiet Christmas at chez nous.
    Staking tonight 56 points
    bet 5 x 6pt singles
    1 pt. Canadian (26b) on 06 12 21 30 39
    The word logic doesn't even come into this one :)
    GLTA.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    A few trebles again, two quads, one single regular euro as am still waiting for 10+11 star combo.
    Tonight, expecting a shift from previous low 30's balls towards the 16-23 inc range for trebles.
    Also chance of an one odd lowball e.g. 4-6 and either 40/50 for random token high ball in the mix.
    Those 4x balls may well rest up after their recent surplus.
    One of the two quads may well be 17,20,23,27.

    Collecting last weeks treble from a border shopping triip is likely tricky enough,
    have to show up at a designated postoffice, provide id, then guess it's cheque/IBAN/BIC/Swift
    Will likely just get uncle bob to collect on 10% commission.
    The only plus side is the fx rates are highly favourable 1.16 for conversion.

    Online is probably ideal, or walkin bookies (dodgy enough) for quicker fulfilment.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Nothing great for Friday, those dreaded 4x balls again tend to skew everything sideways.
    Two of the lowest appearing recent balls showed up (18/22) but completely missed them,
    marked up on chart but buried under some cold and hot cooling balls.

    0tL4PQj.png

    A re-run for Tues, leaning on odd numbers, 4x avoidance, no shop ticket with that star 11 coming out.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,586 ✭✭✭sasta le


    A few trebles again, two quads, one single regular euro as am still waiting for 10+11 star combo.
    Tonight, expecting a shift from previous low 30's balls towards the 16-23 inc range for trebles.
    Also chance of an one odd lowball e.g. 4-6 and either 40/50 for random token high ball in the mix.
    Those 4x balls may well rest up after their recent surplus.
    One of the two quads may well be 17,20,23,27.

    Collecting last weeks treble from a border shopping triip is likely tricky enough,
    have to show up at a designated postoffice, provide id, then guess it's cheque/IBAN/BIC/Swift
    Will likely just get uncle bob to collect on 10% commission.
    The only plus side is the fx rates are highly favourable 1.16 for conversion.

    Online is probably ideal, or walkin bookies (dodgy enough) for quicker fulfilment.

    Bookies shop why dodgy?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    sasta le wrote: »
    Bookies shop why dodgy?
    i) The slightest error on the betslip will void it. ii) Any grey areas, leaves it to their discretion iii) In the past they have tried to short-change cash, or iv) attempt to dance around rules e.g. NRNB v) Won a single 20/1 on the G'Nat few years ago, the bossman behind the desk advised to put it in an inside jacket pocket and zip it up (while remaining at the desk area), and to be very cautious when exiting as they can't be held liable anywhere past the doorway.

    Luckily don't visit them often, and the usually they just get thrown bank bags of loose change (disgruntledly accepted), that the banks would otherwise charge to recieve and re-count.


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