Saturday 24th Nov - Might Bite V Native River!

maximo31

Plenty of good action today.
One I like EW @ 13/2 in the 1.50 Haydock is Admiral Barratry. Form of his 2nd in Newbury working out well. Has a run under his belt this season so hopefully ready to deliver!😀

Chesty08

First Assignment

Trevelyns Corn

Might Bite

3 for me today

Auroras_encore

Chesty08 wrote: »

First Assignment

Trevelyns Corn

Might Bite

3 for me today

brave

maximo31

Told to back Ross Raith Rover 3.40 lingfield.

FatRat

That was some win by Garo de Juilley lto. Gonna have him here at 10/1 in the 1.50. Still well treated after that I reckon

irishgoat

Last day betting for me until Stephen's day, I hope it's a good day.

I'll be having a few bet's during the day.

2.00 Lingfield, Red Impression. A bit shorter than I would have liked at around 1.49/1.5 I honestly can't see anything in the race that should come close to it, nothing to dislike about it's first run. A max win bet for me.

2.05 Ascot, Politologue, I'm not really seeing anything in the race to touch it. Currently around 2.28 backing to win. To me Politologue is a classy horse, charbel is a excellent handicapper but cant really make it in class 1 races.

3.00 Haydock, Might Bite, I'm laying this, currently around 2.06. I think Native River might have it's measure today but Just sticking with the lay on Might Bite.

Good luck to anyone who's betting.

MyStubbleItches

irishgoat wrote: »

Last day betting for me until Stephen's day.

This is a max lay for me.

Widdensushi

MyStubbleItches wrote: »

This is a max lay for me.

Triple max for me

ASOT

Red Impression looks like she could be some filly.

irishgoat

MyStubbleItches wrote: »

This is a max lay for me.

I finish for a month every year at this time and I 100% won't have a bet until the day after Christmas. Anyway forget about me and enjoy the good racing today. You winning ?

akelly02

Anyone hear anything about might night being withdrawn

BumperD

akelly02 wrote: »

Anyone hear anything about might night being withdrawn

Henderson was looking at fences not heard anything

irishgoat

3.10 Lingfield, Para Mio. Currently 2.16 but even on it's 'educational' and proper runs I can't see it winning this handicap. There are some tough seasoned horses in this race. I'm laying it.

Slattsy

Speculative punt on Thistlecrack. At 12s he's probably a small bit of value.

BumperD

Might Bite such a gorgeous looking horse

kiers47

Toyed with betting him all week. Opted for no bet.
Grrrr

BumperD

He loves it there

Slattsy

Considering Thistlecrack lost about two lengths at every fence he ran on ok!

Fair play BDM backers, I wouldn't have touched him.

Angliru

Thistlecrack would have had every chance if he wasn't so rusty with his jumping. Very proud, Stayers is definitely a viable back up plan.

Joe_ Public

Thistlecrack was very eye catching but, on that display, has gone fully from being an exuberant jumper to a guessy one. If they can locate a good halfway point then he’s a serious candidate for sure.

irishgoat

Below is a quote from you Kiers from the King george thread from the other night. Politilogue won off 168 today, will probably be 170 now or more. You said it can't be a 170. Bristol de mai ran off 165 today, will it be 170 now or there abouts ? Might bite rated 172, his rating be lowed now ? I stand by my ratings 100%

kiers47 wrote: »

There is something fundamentally wrong with your ratings if you have either Bristol De Mai or Politologue ahead of Might Bite. Maybe if you are looking at BDM in the exclusion of Haydock then you could make a case. But he was absolutely kicked out of the way by Might Bite at the grand national meeting in april.
Politologue is a good horse but he is unproven beyond 2m5f and they did express doubts about him staying 3miles last year. There is no chance he can be considered a 170 horse at the moment and Might Bite is definitely that. Look at the horses in behind in last years GC. Annibale Fly 4th in the national, Road to Respect won the G1 JNWine, Djackadam placed in 3 gold cups, Definitely Red won the G2 Charlie Hall. I am not sure on what races you are using to place Politologue or BDM ahead of Might Bite but to me it makes little sense in factual form.
Both Might Bite and Native River should be a good bit clear on all ratings systems that is absolutely certain. Whether they win or not is another thing.

kiers47

Might Bite quite dissapointing. Jumped poor and completely emptied in the straight. You could stick a line through that but unfortunately he is not going to really go to a bettable price in the king George on the back of that I'd say.

lemush

irishgoat wrote: »

Below is a quote from you Kiers from the King george thread from the other night. Politilogue won off 168 today, will probably be 170 now or more. You said it can't be a 170. Bristol de mai ran off 165 today, will it be 170 now or there abouts ? Might bite rated 172, his rating be lowed now ? I stand by my ratings 100%

Politilogue didn’t “run off 165”, it’s not a handicap. Nor will his rating rise for beating Charbel half a length whilst giving him 6lbs, handicapper has him 9lbs superior.

irishgoat

lemush wrote: »

Politilogue didn’t “run off 165”, it’s not a handicap. Nor will his rating rise for beating Charbel half a length whilst giving him 6lbs, handicapper has him 9lbs superior.

I know it's not a handicap. See the end of yesterday's daily bets thread for a discussion on class races and handicaps and Politologue and charbel.

It ran off a rating of 168 today, not 165 or can you see something different to me ? I don't think you know what you're talking about to be honest.

kiers47

irishgoat wrote: »

I know it's not a handicap. See the end of yesterday's daily bets thread for a discussion on class races and handicaps and Politologue and charbel.

It ran off a rating of 168 today, not 165 or can you see something different to me ? I don't think you know what you're talking about to be honest.

Horses don't run off anything in non handicaps. The ratings are more or less meaningless for the horse unless there is a minimum rating to get into the race. They run off the conditions set by the race nothing to do with the ratings.

irishgoat

kiers47 wrote: »

Horses don't run off anything in non handicaps. The ratings are more or less meaningless for the horse unless there is a minimum rating to get into the race. They run off the conditions set by the race nothing to do with the ratings.

Your partly right. Ratings to get into higher class races that are divided into grades. Your totally wrong as in they don't mean anything that is totally nonsense. How else can we judge ? Some of you have your warped views and that's fine.

kiers47

irishgoat wrote: »

Your partly right. Ratings to get into higher class races that are divided into grades. Your totally wrong as in they don't mean anything that is totally nonsense. How else can we judge ? Some of you have your warped views and that's fine.

Haha I think you are misunderstanding me. I'm not talking about having a view. The ratings mean nothing for the conditions of the race. They are only relevant for handicapping purposes they mean nothing to what a horse has to do in the race itself.

irishgoat

I'm not misunderstanding you. You're saying ratings are irrelevant in all races apart from handicaps. Ratings are essential, essential to point us in the right direction. If a horse was beaten in a class 2 rated 155, and the other won a class 1 rated 170, when they meet, which is the obvious to back after taking going etc.. into consideration, and which one should be odds on ? You will say, the conditions of the race when they meet etc...

kiers47

irishgoat wrote: »

I'm not misunderstanding you. You're saying ratings are irrelevant in all races apart from handicaps. Ratings are essential, essential to point us in the right direction. If a horse was beaten in a class 2 rated 155, and the other won a class 1 rated 170, when they meet, which is the obvious to back after taking going etc.. into consideration, and which one should be odds on ? You will say, the conditions of the race when they meet etc...

You clearly are as I didn't mention having a view once I explicitly even said in my last post that I was not talking about that. This is the horse racing forum I am talking about the racing nothing to do with betting or what I or anyone else thinks will win. Ratings are irrelevant for the horses in non handicaps. The weight is set by the conditions of the race.

irishgoat

kiers47 wrote: »

You clearly are as I didn't mention having a view once I explicitly even said in my last post that I was not talking about that. This is the horse racing forum I am talking about the racing nothing to do with betting or what I or anyone else thinks will win. Ratings are irrelevant for the horses in non handicaps. The weight is set by the conditions of the race.

I never mentioned betting, I'm talking about racing and ratings. I'll leave it at that.

kiers47

irishgoat wrote: »

I never mentioned betting, I'm talking about racing and ratings. I'll leave it at that.

You literally talked about horses being odds on in your last post.

That's grand though. Take it handy.

FatRat

It's a bit strange to say ratings don't matter for grade 1's. You're subconsciously rating a horse going into a grade 1 race anyway when deciding on who you think will win. Official ratings are just a formal version of this.

I'm confused as to why this is even being discussed.

kiers47

FatRat wrote: »

It's a bit strange to say ratings don't matter for grade 1's. You're subconsciously rating a horse going into a grade 1 race anyway when deciding on who you think will win. Official ratings are just a formal version of this.

I'm confused as to why this is even being discussed.

The goal posts are after being shifted here a bit but if you are looking to find a winner or looking to rate horses post race then obviously the ratings matter.

But for the horses themselves which is what we were talking about originally the ratings do not make a difference. And no horse runs off X in non handicaps.

irishgoat

5.15 Wolverhampton. Pushkin Museum, currently around 3.9/4.00'ish. I'll be laying this fairly heavy. I think the horse is a 60 rated at best. Running off 58 in a handicap today so you could say it might have something in hand. It does love the track but I think when it shows some recent decent form it'll win. The recent form has been dismal. I'm hoping and don't think today will be that day. Having a very decent lay on it.

irishgoat

I wont be on til after Xmas, have to dedicate some family time. All the best to everyone whos' betting I hope you make a few bob coming up to the Xmas.

Last bets from me til then.

6.15 Wolves, Michele Strogoff, around 3.75, laying

6.45 Wolves, Comporta, laying around 2.94

8.15 Wolves, Teresita Alvarez, laying around 3.85.

Nothing worth backing with confidence tonight.

All the best

Peintre Celebre

I urge you to reconsider goat. Enjoy your posts.

kiers47

They landed on a nice touch there on the favorite ,Mick Appleby some man to get the money down on these. Nice ride too.

ASOT

Kirby flying at wolves, 4 wins from 5 so far. Could have been 5/5 but left himself slightly to much to do in the 3rd race and couldn't get there.