Could we have a statement from a Morgan Kelly type economist

6541

I am wondering could we have a statement from a Morgan Kelly type economist on where this is all heading, someone who is learned and independent, someone with no skin in the game.

DubCount

If you laid all the economists in the world end to end you would never reach a conclusion.

Any opinion, even one from someone as good as Morgan Kelly, is only an opinion. Events (Brexit hard or soft, Italy problems, Mr. Trump bombing somewhere) will direct things in the short term, but nobody has perfect knowledge of the future or what events will happen when. Nobody can give you better than a guess.

6541

DubCount wrote: »

If you laid all the economists in the world end to end you would never reach a conclusion.

Any opinion, even one from someone as good as Morgan Kelly, is only an opinion. Events (Brexit hard or soft, Italy problems, Mr. Trump bombing somewhere) will direct things in the short term, but nobody has perfect knowledge of the future or what events will happen when. Nobody can give you better than a guess.

Even a guess at this stage - It just seem to be one long uncertainty on the world stage whilst hyper capitalism in Ireland. But I am not qualified and mere mortal so please give me direction !!!

Dr_Kolossus

6541 wrote: »

Even a guess at this stage - It just seem to be one long uncertainty on the world stage whilst hyper capitalism in Ireland. But I am not qualified and mere mortal so please give me direction !!!

Not trying to be smart, but it will be fine until it isn't. There are too many un certanties. There is potential for any issue to be the one that eventually breaks the camels back. I read a great post quote back in 2008 I think.

When you are standing in water up to your nostrils, it is the ripple that will drown you.

pauldavis123

January 2020.

Chat then...

The_Conductor

Economics is a series of often conflicting theories- and the very best thing that economists do- is look back at events that have caused carnage- and deliberate on why they happened. They're excellent at nitpicking about the past- they are not so good at predicting the future- other than the bleeding obvious that everyone talks about.

If you want a decent economic commentary from an Economist- read the book after the next implosion in the world economies. It'll make great reading- but you'll be none the wiser as to what you can learn from it all............

Andycap8

Morgan Kelly has made many predictions. Some have come to pass, some have not. In Sept 2011 he predicted Ireland would become bankrupt under the IMF / EU bailout programe. At the same time he concluded Ireland's woes were entirely the fault of the Banks however at the same time he decried the fact he and his colleagues were paid twice what their continental counterparts were paid. He advocated an immediate end to Ireland's budget deficit in 2011 (i.e. the "austerity" doled out was nothing like he believed should occur). David McWilliams predicted for over a decade that Irish property prices would collapse. 46 respected economists penned an open letter which predicted NAMA would be a disaster and would make a huge loss (relative to its discounted purchase prices) when in fact it is now expected to make a surplus (again relative to its discounted purchase prices). Although there is an issue with the loan prices at the time of the letter and the actual end prices paid by NAMA even after the lower closing prices many of these still predicted it would fail. At one stage, Brian Lucy (generally good economist from Trinity) misunderstand that deposits were liabilities rather than assets.

It's a guessing game. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't.

One thing to note is, things nearly always bounce back. But after a severe recession those who experienced it become anchored to the downside i.e. extremely risk averse. It can't be a once in a generational recession if it repeats itself within 2 decades. As such, beware of "doom" biases but also don't buy the BS from vested interests.

mkdon

buckle up for the brexit bust

pauldavis123

pauldavis123 wrote: »

January 2020.

Chat then...

This did technically start in January!

About to get real now.

https://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

Don't buy a house, don't get pregnant, fun times ahead.

Diairist

Don't retire. Airline stocks and oil companies are in your pension portfolio - probably. Gold is not in your pension portfolio - probably...