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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,048 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Theresa May has lied consistently and told everyone what they want to hear.

    Shes just told MPs there is a legally binding solution to the backstop coming. She's Lying. Again.

    She can say she wont contest the next election but is not giving any dates on when she will step down. Shes probably lying there too. But she will say and do anything to survive this evening.

    Good old democracy, where a vote based on lies is just as binding as a vote based on the truth, and in the country that insists on calling it's parlimentarians 'right honourable' every 15 seconds, it's much more acceptable to lie blatantly to parliament, than to accuse anyone of being dishonest.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 215 ✭✭ARNOLD J RIMMER


    Brexit has fallen through its arse.

    May will easily survive the confidence vote as nobody who the Tories saw as potential replacement put themselves forward before the vote.

    They didn’t but themselves forward as they know they can’t get a better deal from the EU.

    They also don’t want to be leader on Brexit Day.


    Labour won’t call a no confidence vote in the Government for a General Election as they also don’t want to be the party in Government on Brexit Day.

    Corbyn will wait until he is sure the General Election vote can’t happen until after Brexit

    Labour will then run an Election campaign on cleaning up the Torie mess with no responsibilities UK finds themselves in after Brexit


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,979 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    This is the part where I have no sympathy for TM, which many people in the media and other areas seem to have.

    She has either outright lied or hidden the truth throughout the whole process.

    She has lied to the DUP, the ERG, Davis said he lied to her, Raab claims she lied to him. Yet we are supposed to believe that throughout all this this is working on the best interests of the country?

    She has consistently mislead the EU, missing numerous deadlines and saying one thing to them before saying different at home.

    She has never once, until she had the deal, made the fact that the UK would need to make compromises to get a deal. Now she is saying that a backstop is totally necessary, only a few weeks ago she was proclaiming that no PM would ever agree to it!

    The UK needed politicians that would tell the truth, hard as it was to hear. We are leaving and these are the costs. But still they are making it out as if there is no costs.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,474 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Lot of BS and empty phrases from May at her speech:

    1. That she will deliver Brexit which hounours the result of the referendum while protecting the economy, jobs and the "precious" Union.
    2. That the Conservative Party are moderate, pragmatic, modern party working for everyone.
    3. That they are working on resolving housing issues, poverty, improving public services.

    Anyone can actually believe that nonsense?
    1. Undeliverable, such Brexit doesn't exist. She either knows it and lies or is deluded.
    2. Last 3 years have shown that Tories are not pragmatic whatsoever - John Major must be furious (and I think he is). And any talks about modern, oh my, don't get me started. With the lot like JRM?
    3. This is frankly insulting. They haven't done any actual goevernance last 3 years, just wasted time and money on undeliverable Brexit. And the UN poverty report is clear on poverty, it's a shame that a European G8 country has this level of poverty.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,739 ✭✭✭serfboard


    devnull wrote: »
    Lots of talk on Twitter about cabinet members set to vote against despite saying otherwise publicly. Since its a secret ballot they want to seem loyal in case she wins it.
    There was a great discussion on Sean O'Rourke this morning involving Matthew Parris where they talked about this.

    The jist of it was that they can publicly back her all they like - what they do in private is another matter, and no better party than the Tories for doing it.

    And cabinet members who don't publicly back her will get the boot if/when she wins.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,323 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    devnull wrote: »
    Lots of talk on Twitter about cabinet members set to vote against despite saying otherwise publicly. Since its a secret ballot they want to seem loyal in case she wins it.

    Gove earlier on Sky News wouldn't directly answer if he'd support her, the only thing he'd say was that he'd support here if she won the confidence motion.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,983 ✭✭✭✭tuxy


    No choice but support her when she survives. 12 months until the tory party can call this vote again and I doubt he would support a parliament vote called by Labour and the SNP.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,891 ✭✭✭Enzokk




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,323 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Reuters saying that if it does come to a contest that Mogg said he won't run. What's the English equivalent to hurler on the ditch?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,983 ✭✭✭✭tuxy


    Hurrache wrote: »
    Reuters saying that if it does come to a contest that Mogg said he won't run. What's the English equivalent to hurler on the ditch?

    Yes he said a few times he wants Johnson, Rabb or Davis as PM.
    He's hardly going to risk his own political career.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,979 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    So if, as expected, she wins tonight what then?

    Surely the likes of JRM, Johnson etc must accept the plan she has delivered? What possible reason could they have for not supporting it whilst staying in the Tory party?

    And doesn't this, her winning, simply mean the EU can simply (not that it was ever likely to be different) stick to the current WA as she has effectively been given the go ahead on it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,765 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    This is the part where I have no sympathy for TM, which many people in the media and other areas seem to have.

    She has either outright lied or hidden the truth throughout the whole process.

    She has lied to the DUP, the ERG, Davis said he lied to her, Raab claims she lied to him. Yet we are supposed to believe that throughout all this this is working on the best interests of the country?

    She has consistently mislead the EU, missing numerous deadlines and saying one thing to them before saying different at home.

    She has never once, until she had the deal, made the fact that the UK would need to make compromises to get a deal. Now she is saying that a backstop is totally necessary, only a few weeks ago she was proclaiming that no PM would ever agree to it!

    The UK needed politicians that would tell the truth, hard as it was to hear. We are leaving and these are the costs. But still they are making it out as if there is no costs.

    I wouldn't trust the radio of any of those 3 entities when it comes to them saying that May lied to them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,979 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    tuxy wrote: »
    Yes he said a few times he wants Johnson, Rabb or Davis as PM.
    He's hardly going to risk his own political career.

    In any other time or sphere, his career, as anything other than a nobody backbencher, would effectively be over should TM win tonight.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,246 ✭✭✭judeboy101


    Hurrache wrote: »
    Reuters saying that if it does come to a contest that Mogg said he won't run. What's the English equivalent to hurler on the ditch?
    He knows the law, no Catholics can be head of state or pm as they can't perform all the duties entailed.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,323 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Enzokk wrote: »

    And despite all this there's still Tory's on Sky News saying if they had a change in PM they could push EU to the deadline and the EU then will have to give them a new agreement.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,390 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    judeboy101 wrote: »
    He knows the law, no Catholics can be head of state or pm as they can't perform all the duties entailed.

    They can be PM but not monarch. Anyway, if Jacob becomes PM it will be time to leave the planet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,765 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Hurrache wrote: »
    And despite all this there's still Tory's on Sky News saying if they had a change in PM they could push EU to the deadline and the EU then will have to give them a new agreement.

    It beggars belief. Two ladies were on a few minutes ago and saying that the EU always play this game of brinksmanship so they still think they might see some movement from them in the near future and that if there is some it will be in the area of the backstop.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,779 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    Honestly some of this stuff makes me laugh, I've been watching a few regional programs in the UK and some of the tosh that local politicians are coming out with is ridiculous.

    Essentially what I'm hearing is the following on Tory called votes:
    - TM was right to call another election two years after the last one because people were trying to frustrate Brexit and the public mood had changed and so their need to be a vote.
    - Tory MPs were right to call a leadership challenge because the MP mood had changed since the last one over two years ago and therefore there needed to be change.

    In relation to mandates I'm hearing the following
    - Even if TM wins by 5% or so, this is not enough of a mandate and cannot be taken as a definitive decision by her fellow peers, so therefore she should go anyway.
    - There should not be another referendum because the people have decisively voted to leave the United Kingdom and there is no valid reason to do so.

    So basically what they're saying is
    - That if they're not happy with the parliamentary arithmetic they should be allowed to hold another vote, that they believe they should win. And if they're not happy with the leader they should also have another vote, since they might win that. But there should not be another vote on Brexit, you know, because they might lose that.
    - If they win a vote by the odd percent here and there that must absolutely be binding and is a clear mandate, but if they lose a vote by a few percent, then the other person has still lost and they have still won as it's not a clear mandate.

    The whole thing is laughable, they're such a complete bunch of hypocrites.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,979 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    It beggars belief. Two ladies were on a few minutes ago and saying that the EU always play this game of brinksmanship so they still think they might see some movement from them in the near future and that if there is some it will be in the area of the backstop.

    And as usual I assume the presenter simply let them rattle on and not ask why we have such a negative attitude to the EU when they are, supposedly, easily manipulated?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,809 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Nigel Dodds is saying TM isn't telling the truth when she tells Tory MPs that progress was made in talks with the DUP today. She just lies.
    She should be gone but I suspect a lot of MPs are afraid who might replace her. Really pathetic reason TBH.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,914 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    Sky reckons at least 184 Tory MPs backing Theresa May. That's 133 accounted for. At least 48 of those won't be voting for her.

    She will get the 159, but realistically what does she really need to carry on? I'd say anything less than 215 and she has to be in serious trouble, that would mean 100 MPs don't support her. Her saving grace is there isn't an obvious replacement.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,765 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    And as usual I assume the presenter simply let them rattle on and not ask why we have such a negative attitude to the EU when they are, supposedly, easily manipulated?

    Kay Burley was on earlier and if the guest didn't sound pro-Brexit enough, she interjected to ensure that the will of the people wasn't forgotten.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Enzokk wrote: »

    Find it hard to believe that anything a buzzfeed journalist tweets is important tbh


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,809 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    If 100+ vote against her, Corbyn can then table his no confidence motion. He can tell these that TM would be gone if they support the motion as she has said she will stand down.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,779 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    bilston wrote: »
    Sky reckons at least 184 Tory MPs backing Theresa May. That's 133 accounted for. At least 48 of those won't be voting for her.

    She will get the 159, but realistically what does she really need to carry on? I'd say anything less than 215 and she has to be in serious trouble, that would mean 100 MPs don't support her. Her saving grace is there isn't an obvious replacement.

    I can't see it being as high as that - some I'd say are lying about support to look after their own interests.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,765 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Micheal Martin hitting the nail on the head on 20 seconds in this clip.

    https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1072921549718605827


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,957 ✭✭✭Fann Linn


    Micheal Martin hitting the nail on the head on 20 seconds in this clip.

    https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1072921549718605827


    Martin looking after his own head and nobody else.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,914 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    devnull wrote: »
    I can't see it being as high as that - some I'd say are lying about support to look after their own interests.

    Quite possibly.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,914 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    I wonder what Brexiteers will say if it's tight and for example 52% of MPs support the PM and 48% oppose her...?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,765 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Fann Linn wrote: »
    Martin looking after his own head and nobody else.

    I actually think he is at least damaging if not outright sacrificing his own Taoiseach aspirations in supporting the C&S over the period which they have done.

    Still, I'm personally glad we have a collective government who recognizes the need for a steady ship at the moment.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,337 ✭✭✭rockatansky


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    She has lied to the DUP,

    And for this I wholeheartedly applaud her. She no doubt recognises the DUP for what they really are.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,708 ✭✭✭✭briany


    bilston wrote: »
    I wonder what Brexiteers will say if it's tight and for example 52% of MPs support the PM and 48% oppose her...?

    Something hypocritical, no doubt.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭hill16bhoy




  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,779 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    bilston wrote: »
    I wonder what Brexiteers will say if it's tight and for example 52% of MPs support the PM and 48% oppose her...?

    They will say it's not a mandate, despite saying it is for Brexit.

    They've called for another election, because they didn't like the result of the last one and called for another leadership election, as they don't like the person they voted in last time and say that it's not undemocratic.

    But if someone asks for another referendum it's not allowed because it betrays any kind of democracy by asking people the same question again, which is laughable really, but shows you what you're dealing with.

    You see this with the way they talk about the EU, and talk about other deals they have made even though they're just proposals. It's all staggering arrogance from people who are used to getting their own way.

    Look at it from outside the Brexit bubble, you've got a bunch of very very rich people who have spent their whole life getting their own way due to their wealth and have become arrogant self obsessed Tories. If they want something they get it, if someone else wants something similar, they don't.

    The likes of Jacob Rees Mogg wants to cut taxes for the rich whilst increasing them for a poor with a single tax band - he couldn't give a damn about your average man on the street, integrity, compassion and caring for the man down the street and empathy are things he'll never have and it's the likes of him that symbolise everything I hate about the Tory party. He doesn't care about rules, ethics or honesty or consistency. He just cares about himself.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,809 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Historian on Sky thinks it might be close. Whilst Sky have run the list of who has said they will support her, many experts, incl a former whip telling them that MPs are great liars.


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  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,779 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    hill16bhoy wrote: »

    I said that earlier - I wouldn't put anything past these tories.

    They're a bunch of back-stabbing, disloyal, unethical and hypocritical rich boys and girls. They'll do anything to look after themselves, honesty is not one of their strong points and if they need to lie about who their supporting to save their career they'll do that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,764 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    She'll win comfortably in my opinion.

    There is no other credible way forward, no credible potential leadership options.

    When push comes to shove pragmatism wins out...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    I actually think he is at least damaging if not outright sacrificing his own Taoiseach aspirations in supporting the C&S over the period which they have done.

    Still, I'm personally glad we have a collective government who recognizes the need for a steady ship at the moment.
    This is a bit like Kevin Sheedy's goal against the English.

    Who would have thought that the Dáil would be the mature parliament, putting the country ahead of party politics, while the UK parliament walks around with it's pants around it's ankles, smelling of booze and vomit all over its shirt?

    This should be the last nail coffin for any lingering inferiority complex we have regarding the British.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,323 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Water John wrote: »
    incl a former whip telling them that MPs are great liars.

    Often qualified today as being especially applicable to the Torys.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,779 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    MP has now spoke to Sky News confirming that he believes that his fellow MPs are liars and actually not supporting TM despite saying so publicly.

    https://twitter.com/MelHand_Teacher/status/1072935610241949698

    (saw it myself but showing a tweet from public to add credibility)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    She'll win comfortably in my opinion.

    There is no other credible way forward, no credible potential leadership options.

    When push comes to shove pragmatism wins out...

    I'll guess 2:1 (214-104)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,165 ✭✭✭Captain Obvious


    Is it not a public vote? Is it being broadcast?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,797 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Is it not a public vote? Is it being broadcast?

    Nope it's a private vote within the Conservative party. What others are saying is that just because many Conservative MPs said on twitter or otherwise doesn't bind them when they are voting privately.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,914 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    I'll guess 2:1 (214-104)

    Yeah let's all play that game...although I think it's 317 not 318 Tory MPs.

    242-75 to May


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,779 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    Is it not a public vote? Is it being broadcast?

    Secret Ballot - so you can see why people will say publicly they are backing TM but vote against her.

    There was a leadership election with Thatcher and also Ian Duncan-Smith in the past where it looked like both would easily win but they didn't, because ultimately many of the MPs said they would vote one way and voted another.

    Personally anyone who has said one thing publicly and do another thing privately shouldn't be involved in politics - it's one thing for people to change their mind, but openly lying to score points is the kind of politician that are not needed in politics.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    I'll guess 2:1 (214-104)

    The markets suggest there will only be between 99-109 agaisnt her, so yes 104.5 is about the average. After all who would actually want the job.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,914 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    Is it not a public vote? Is it being broadcast?

    Secret ballot


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,809 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    I think a camera will be allowed in once the ballot closes.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭hill16bhoy


    I'll guess 2:1 (214-104)

    I'll go with 184-134.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,809 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Anything near that 130 against prediction would be very bad for her, totally lame duck. Sky confirm a camera in the room.


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