Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Akrasia

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/shufflepaw/status/1052634571345399808


VERY interesting point.

How can the UK do a free trade deal with USA if there is a frictionless border on the island of Ireland!?

They can't unless NI is treated as a seperate market and customs regime as the rest of the UK and refuses entry to NI any goods that are incompatible with the rules of the single market.
The Border has to be in the Irish sea with customs checks on freight at the ports.

You can see why the DUP don't like this idea.

Rhineshark

Hurrache wrote: »

Prescott earlier said that he thinks the US are ready to deal, possibly related. But at this point I'm cynical and would not be surprised it's yet more kite flying and water muddying.

Tbh, I reckon the US is ready to have the UK for breakfast at its earliest convenience, given a desperate and much smaller country begging for a deal and publically dependant on it being made is basically about Trump's level of "making a deal". Even he can probably manage not to screw that up.

Given Trump doesn't think a deal is good unless it is palpably much worse for the other side, it won't go well for the UK.

Akrasia

Hurrache wrote: »

Prescott earlier said that he thinks the US are ready to deal, possibly related. But at this point I'm cynical and would not be surprised it's yet more kite flying and water muddying.

Who's more untrustworthy, the Trump government, or the spindoctors in the UK trying to play their foes off each other.

flutered

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

farmchoice wrote: »

that was very good from coveney, im no FG supporter but i really think the government and covneney in particular are doing a stellar job. honorable mention to FF as well for not trying to upset the apple cart.

Indeed. It must be nice to live somewhere where the two main parties put the welfare of the nation ahead of their own agendas and warring factions.

and something the uk could well do to learn from

Hurrache

Rhineshark wrote: »

Tbh, I reckon the US is ready to have the UK for breakfast at its earliest convenience, given a desperate and much smaller country begging for a deal and publically dependant on it being made is basically about Trump's level of "making a deal". Even he can probably manage not to screw that up.

Given Trump doesn't think a deal is good unless it is palpably much worse for the other side, it won't go well for the UK.

The US and Australia will carve them to pieces in any negotiation based on that Australian document earlier today in the thread.

Akrasia

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They will and rightly so. There must be an election before June 2023 but it is likely that there would be an election before then. Adding a year to the transition period further jeopardises Brexit as the Brexiteers and the DUP would probably lose their influence given that the country is slowly shifting towards Remain. Time is of the essence for them.

The option to remain ends on 30/03/2019. After this, they're out (unless A50 is extended to allow them to hold an election or referendum)

An extension to the withdrawal period just means the UK are non voting passengers in the EU for longer before they get cast into the deep ocean of WTO terms or begin negotiations on EU accession as a 3rd country.

Professor Moriarty

Akrasia wrote: »

The option to remain ends on 30/03/2019. After this, they're out (unless A50 is extended to allow them to hold an election or referendum)

An extension to the withdrawal period just means the UK are non voting passengers in the EU for longer before they get cast into the deep ocean of WTO terms or begin negotiations on EU accession as a 3rd country.

Barnier made it clear that Britain can change its mind until the end of the transition period and that the EU will allow them to remain.

Akrasia

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Barnier made it clear that Britain can change its mind until the end of the transition period and that the EU will allow them to remain.

Really? Is that legally sound? (Cause you can guarantee it would be challenged in court)

Professor Moriarty

Akrasia wrote: »

Really? Is that legally sound? (Cause you can guarantee it would be challenged in court)

Well, if Barnier says it you'd have to assume that he could deliver. Basically, in the context of staying in the CU and the SM, he said that if Britain shifted its red lines during the transition period then the EU would shift its red lines to accommodate them in remaining.

flutered

road_high wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The Aussies damn the prospects of a UK trade deal with faint praise:

https://threader.app/thread/1052458691629338626

Jesus the vultures are really circling...and Australia is supposedly one of the many Commonwealth countries the teary eyed Empire nostalgists view as almost family! With friends like those...lol
The UK is a small fish in a big pond but they've really never outgrown their own state of self importance.

their self importance is a mile high, also they cannot understand that a european politician says what he means and means what they say

First Up

Professor Moriarty wrote:

Well, if Barnier says it you'd have to assume that he could deliver. Basically, in the context of staying in the CU and the SM, he said that if Britain shifted its red lines during the transition period then the EU would shift its red lines to accommodate them in remaining.

It isn't Barnier's call.

Calina

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Akrasia wrote: »

Really? Is that legally sound? (Cause you can guarantee it would be challenged in court)

Well, if Barnier says it you'd have to assume that he could deliver. Basically, in the context of staying in the CU and the SM, he said that if Britain shifted its red lines during the transition period then the EU would shift its red lines to accommodate them in remaining.

I wouldnt mind seeing a source for this. Elements of it sound more like Tusk but not the commitment to the EU moving its redlines. As they are based in the EU body of law there is really limited room here.

Professor Moriarty

Calina wrote: »

I wouldnt mind seeing a source for this. Elements of it sound more like Tusk but not the commitment to the EU moving its redlines. As they are based in the EU body of law there is really limited room here.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-updates-uk-eu-single-market-customs-union-leave-a8300811.html

Maybe. I can only assume he knows his brief.

Professor Moriarty

flutered wrote: »

their self importance is a mile high, also they cannot understand that a european politician says what he means and means what they say

I remember the Indian High Commissioner said immediately after Brexit that India would be very happy to strike a trade deal but that increased immigration into Britain from India would have to part of the deal. Ironically.

Kermit.de.frog

November Summit cancelled

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/oct/17/brexit-eu-summit-may-pmqs-corbyn-blair-heseltine-and-clegg-urge-eu-leaders-to-extend-article-50-to-allow-2nd-referendum-politics-live


Big thing there is the EU 27 have not changed the negotiating guidelines.

LeinsterDub

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Barnier made it clear that Britain can change its mind until the end of the transition period and that the EU will allow them to remain.

When and where did he do so? My understanding was post March 29 they are out

Professor Moriarty

LeinsterDub wrote: »

When and where did he do so? My understanding was post March 29 they are out

See post 666.

Anthracite

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/shufflepaw/status/1052634571345399808


VERY interesting point.

How can the UK do a free trade deal with USA if there is a frictionless border on the island of Ireland!?

Where is the Irish American lobby these days?

Kermit.de.frog

Boom!

https://twitter.com/MarkusBecker/status/1052664397057875968

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Boom!

https://twitter.com/MarkusBecker/status/1052664397057875968

Wow! If true, the Brexiteers and DUP will go ape.

charlie14

flutered wrote: »

the main players got it very right re the tip offs from the exit polls

Was it not more a case of a polling agency giving a tip off which "accidentally" reversed the figures for remain and leave that resulted in the main players getting it very right financially ?



A polling agency by sheer coincidence that some of the same players were involved in,

Junkyard Tom

Let's not forget that there were many in Britain who gleefully predicted a pro-Brexit vote would precipitate the breakup of the EU.

During the negotiations Britain has barefacedly tried to go over the negotiating team's heads and wedge off individual member states. Perhaps the only reason the EU has been so damn patient with GB is that it is committed to causing as little harm as possible to Ireland.

The British have done nothing but try to sow discord in the EU and now, when that chaos strategy has failed, they throw their toys out of their pram over the north being offered a special deal the British would love to have and the DUP are too stupid to agree to.

The really do not deserve any quarter.

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Boom!

https://twitter.com/MarkusBecker/status/1052664397057875968

If she acknowledged that the backstop cannot be time limited, why is there no summit in November as per other tweets? Its going to be an interesting evening with the drip of news that will come out.

In other news, the knives are out again for May as it has been many times before,

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1052660704493412352

Akrasia

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-updates-uk-eu-single-market-customs-union-leave-a8300811.html

Maybe. I can only assume he knows his brief.

That article looks like he's offering extended access to the CU and SM but not offering extended EU membership or a reversal of Brexit beyond march next year

flutered

charlie14 wrote: »

flutered wrote: »

the main players got it very right re the tip offs from the exit polls

Was it not more a case of a polling agency giving a tip off which "accidentally" reversed the figures for remain and leave that resulted in the main players getting it very right financially ?  



A polling agency by sheer coincidence that some of the same players were involved in,

which is what i meant, they had inside track and used it

Kermit.de.frog

Sterling reacting now. Taking a bit of a dive as news trickles out.

First Up

Daily Express screaming about betrayal. Always a good sign.

Water John

It might be better if enough letters were sent in, and the Tory boil lanced. Let the Brexiteers shoot their bolt and let see their numbers.

charlie14

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

See post 666.

Bit unfortunate that it just happened to be that post number.

LeinsterDub

Akrasia wrote: »

That article looks like he's offering extended access to the CU and SM but not offering extended EU membership or a reversal of Brexit beyond march next year

That's my reading of it too

charlie14

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sterling reacting now. Taking a bit of a dive as news trickles out.

I would have thought with talk of a longer transition period sterling would have gone the other way ?

Professor Moriarty

Akrasia wrote: »

That article looks like he's offering extended access to the CU and SM but not offering extended EU membership or a reversal of Brexit beyond march next year

I think that the EU and Remainers would be very happy if the UK changed their position and negotiated to remain in the SM and the CU at this stage. However, as things stand, the point is moot unless there is a volte face by the Tories or a Europhile party is elected. A plus is that the possibility of an extra year is already winding the Brexiteers up, which is nice.

Professor Moriarty

charlie14 wrote: »

Bit unfortunate that it just happened to be that post number.

The devil is in the detail.

Kermit.de.frog

It gets nuttier and nuttier. It's amazing they don't get the concept that UK is simply being treated as just a 3rd country now and Ireland is a member state.

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It gets nuttier and nuttier. It's amazing they don't get the concept that UK is simply being treated as just a 3rd country now and Ireland is a member state.

The obligatory snide dig at Juncker.

Capt'n Midnight

kuro68k wrote: »

Some people will get rich from this. It's good for them.

Some people will see a soft ethnic cleansing as Johnny Foreigner leaves.

All the others are just deluded idiots.

The ethnic cleansing folk are deuded idiots too.

Brexit: EU migrants won't get special treatment, May saysThere may be less immigration because of the economic effects.
Otherwise all that will happen is that more of the immigration will come from outside of the EU. Which is what a lot of Asians voted for in the referendum.

Anyone who's upset about Polish people will be really upset later. Oh and the French are basically going tit-for-tat on visas. Be interesting to see if southern Europe follows their lead on the ex-pats. Yes they could apply to stay, but UK charge some serious fees for stuff like that so maybe they would too. And there's the whole mess of UK pension funds paying ex-pats.

Aviva to transfer administration of UK policies to Ireland

, policies will no longer qualify for protection under the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme. Instead, Aviva says similar protections can be offered by the Irish Insurance Compensation Fund.

Interesting, do they automatically get Irish protection or what will it cost ?

PopePalpatine

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Wow! If true, the Brexiteers and DUP will go ape.

First Up wrote: »

Daily Express screaming about betrayal. Always a good sign.

I'll believe it when the backstop is applied, there's plenty of time for a gammon-flavoured amendment making it illegal to make it through the HoC.

Hurrache

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Aviva to transfer administration of UK policies to Ireland Interesting, do they automatically get Irish protection or what will it cost ?

I got a letter last week regarding a policy I have with them and how it's being moved to being Irish administered.

I guess it's pretty much the equivalent of a boiler plate move, but Aviva have a large business within Ireland so for someone like them it's just shuffling files.

LeinsterDub

charlie14 wrote: »

I would have thought with talk of a longer transition period sterling would have gone the other way ?

No deal is the most likely outcome at the moment. No deal means no transition. Hence the nose dive

lawred2

[Deleted User] wrote: »

O'Toole was excellent on The View last week too. You can really sense his frustration at times.

I'm not a 'believer' in all things O'Toole, but I think he's captured the essence of the problem of Brexit (a display of English Nationalism) really well in pieces he's written and interviews he's given too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3tkNQBiBB0

A very eloquent insightful discussion.

And very close to the mark.

You'd miss the rationality of the UUP in public discourse at this stage really..

lawred2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Boom!

https://twitter.com/MarkusBecker/status/1052664397057875968

That not just more of TM saying what those around her want to hear?

When she's back home, it'll be back to the usual rhetoric about red lines and the union blah de blah.

Nothing she says carries any weight or value.

Dyr

Rhineshark wrote: »

Tbh, I reckon the US is ready to have the UK for breakfast at its earliest convenience, given a desperate and much smaller country begging for a deal and publically dependant on it being made is basically about Trump's level of "making a deal". Even he can probably manage not to screw that up.

Given Trump doesn't think a deal is good unless it is palpably much worse for the other side, it won't go well for the UK.

The Americans always considered the UK to be their man in the EU, which is why they never wanted to see the UK outside the European tent but god only knows how Trump sees it. He always indicated that he thought the UK leaving was a good idea.

charlie14

LeinsterDub wrote: »

No deal is the most likely outcome at the moment. No deal means no transition. Hence the nose dive

I get that, but from the post I took it that sterling was taking a nose dive due to a possible extension of the transition period where I would have expected it to rise.

Junkyard Tom

I must say, as a person who isn't all that fond of politicians, I'm very impressed with the performance of Simon Coveney and Mairead McGuinness on British media today. Cool, fact-based rebuttals combined with calling out interviewers when they amplify comments by bit-players and cranks and like Boris Johnson.

Fair play to them.

Akrasia

charlie14 wrote: »

I get that, but from the post I took it that sterling was taking a nose dive due to a possible extension of the transition period where I would have expected it to rise.

Its nose diving because the November summit seems to be off. This October meeting was the deadline for agreement, then a November summit was proposed which pushed the deadline out. By cancelling the November summit the markets might be considering if the deadline for a withdrawal agreement may be already realistically past.

Edit, actually, is sterling even down for the day? Looks like its recovered from an earlier dip

CZ 453

Sterling is not nose diving. It's stable enough at the moment. Neither strengthening nor weakening. It's about the same as it was 5 days ago

charlie14

Akrasia wrote: »

Its nose diving because the November summit seems to be off. This October meeting was the deadline for agreement, then a November summit was proposed which pushed the deadline out. By cancelling the November summit the markets might be considering if the deadline for a withdrawal agreement may be already realistically past.

Edit, actually, is sterling even down for the day? Looks like its recovered from an earlier dip

That to me would make more sense. That the markets earlier considered there was no hope of a deal and sterling dipped, but with there being a possibility of an extension to the transition period it then improved.

charlie14

Bambi wrote: »

The Americans always considered the UK to be their man in the EU, which is why they never wanted to see the UK outside the European tent but god only knows how Trump sees it. He always indicated that he thought the UK leaving was a good idea.

America didn`t become a major economic power based on sentiment. Something the UK will quickly learn when not being America`s man in the EU when they go looking for a trade deal.

Imreoir2

I'm not going to pretend that I understand currency markets and I can't say I have a firm grasp on how they should be expected to act. It is interesting that Sterling seems to be holding up better at the moment than it was back in August, given that the Brexit situation is hardily better now than it was then. Perhaps they expect this kind of rough patch before a deal is finally agreed?

One assumes that this is not the signal for no-deal that will tip them over the edge into panic, clearly a deal is still possible at this stage, though one wonders what it is that will finally convince the markets that there will be no deal should it go that way. That full on crisis in the markets might not come until December, or even January.

Still, they were positivly skitish earlier in the year, even a slightly pesimistic comment from the EU sent them into a tail spin for a day or two once upon a time. There are much more pesimistic statements from the EU at this point and yet the markets seem much calmer in their reaction. Are they getting desenseitised? Are they focusing on the bright side? Are they assuming that the more unhappy everyone looks, the closer to a deal we really are?

Water John

By not placing a Nov date they have taken away the false pressure that comes with deadlines. They want the negotiating teams to continue to work hard. They seemed to have made good progress in other areas over the last two weeks. That leaves one issue, the backstop.