Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Bob24

Leroy42 wrote: »

The CTA predates the EU. Why would a hard border negate the CTA?

As part of the CTA both the UK an Ireland are commiting to allow free movement between the two countries. As soon as one of the two countries permanently reinstates border checks that country is in breach of that commitment and the CTA is effectively dead.

Calina

Bob24, the cta is irrelevant in this case. It deals with the movement of people.

The backstop is required in respect of the movement of goods. Customs. Not passport check. Even with the existence of the CTA, we had customs checks at the border prior to the single market. Customs union actually not enough as unless NI de facto complies with internal market regulations there will still need to be checks on goods moving across he border. CTA is people.

A Dub in Glasgo

Bob24 wrote: »

As part of the CTA both the UK an Ireland are commiting to allow free movement between the two countries. As soon as one of the two countries permanently reinstates border checks that country is in breach of that commitment and the CTA is dead.

The CTA is restricted to UK citizens and Irish citizens so I do not see you argument

bob mcbob

briany wrote: »

English Brexiteers will probably be happy enough to see the UK crumble in order to get a clean break from the EU.

Yes but TM will not want to go down in history as the PM who broke up the UK.

briany

bob mcbob wrote: »

Yes but TM will not want to go down in history as the PM who broke up the UK.

She might go down as that in the capsule version of history, but it would have been a tad more complicated than that.

Bob24

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The CTA is restricted to UK citizens and Irish citizens so I do not see you argument

Actually Chinese and Indian nationals with certain visa types are also allowed to cross the CTA freely as well as national of many countries which have visa free access to both the UK and Ireland.

But yeah to also clarify what I meant, while not only that the CTA is very much an instrument to deliver a border free Ireland. And as I mentioned it would be very easy for the UK to force us to either rebel within the EU to bring new solutions or have to choose between breaking that border free Ireland or being in breach with EU rules.

joe40

Calina wrote: »

Bob24, the cta is irrelevant in this case. It deals with the movement of people.

The backstop is required in respect of the movement of goods. Customs. Not passport check. Even with the existence of the CTA, we had customs checks at the border prior to the single market. Customs union actually not enough as unless NI de facto complies with internal market regulations there will still need to be checks on goods moving across he border. CTA is people.

Exactly, I remember in the 70s as a child my parents buying whisky in the north at Christmas time, they weren't worried about the soldiers on the border it was the customs post in lifford that was the concern. Them feckers could lift the whisky

First Up

Leroy42 wrote:

The CTA predates the EU. Why would a hard border negate the CTA?

Everything pre-dates what comes after it. New laws supercede old ones.

Leroy42

First Up wrote: »

Everything pre-dates what comes after it. New laws supercede old ones.

Not in this case. The CTA is not part of the EU, totally separate.

It has nothing to do with any of this.

It is not even a formal agreement, but it suits both parties so has continued on as before. A border in NI, as it was there before, will not alter it in anyway.

briany

If the border checks between RoI and NI were to be purely economic, then that wouldn't affect the GFA, would it? If Irish nationalists in the North can travel to the RoI and back unimpeded (as private persons), then their right to assert their identity hasn't been lessened any. This would still be sh*tty for businesses who operate across the border, but were those provided for in the GFA?

Call me Al

Bob24 wrote: »

As part of the CTA both the UK an Ireland are commiting to allow free movement between the two countries. As soon as one of the two countries permanently reinstates border checks that country is in breach of that commitment and the CTA is effectively dead.

The CTA refers to people, and we will most likely not enforce residency/citizenship checks.

However it's also pertinent to consider what will be happening elsewhere throughout the UK whilst we deal along our border with the fallout of a no-deal. If the Britush government think they can ignore our insignificant (in their eyes) border then the pincer grip of the ferries, airports, and import/export industry throughout the constituencies that actually elect them might soften their cough.

First Up

Leroy42 wrote:

Not in this case. The CTA is not part of the EU, totally separate.

It has nothing to do with any of this.

It is not even a formal agreement, but it suits both parties so has continued on as before. A border in NI, as it was there before, will not alter it in anyway.

It is not sacrosanct and it has everything to do with this. The CTA was an extension of the pre-1922 situation when Ireland was part of the UK. None of the political developments in Europe since then have conflicted with it and EU membership actually re-inforced it.

A hard Brexit and restrictions on travel into the UK potentially change the dynamic and the CTA is not immune from such developments. The map of Europe has changed many times; countries have been created and many borders have been erected where there was none before.

Leroy42

So it existed before the EU, nothing within the EU changed it and yet somehow you think that going back to pre EU days takes it away?

Of course the UK can decide not to continue with it, but it has nothing to do with Brexit per se.

But at no point have the UK said they want to change the CTA, and Ireland doesn't. That is why it is irrelevant. That someone might try to leverage it in as part of the process is of course possible, but since it has nothing to do with the EU I fail to see how it would make any difference to them.

flutered

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

MrMusician18 wrote: »

We could see talks go right down to the wire in March, with art. 50 extended to facilitate ratification

I think that if Barnier lands a deal by Christmas, the 27+ national parliaments will probably pass it to get this phase over with (and securing the divorce payment may be a consideration).

If the UK play silly buggers and try to push WA talks into 2019 and ask for an Article 50 extension, I can see individual parliaments thinking "Hey, if they can get all this attention, why shouldn't we?" and starting to make extra demands. If that starts, they are out on their ears in March, there won't be time to deal with any such demands.

i cannot see the germans having the patience to have this go into 2019

First Up

Leroy42 wrote:

So it existed before the EU, nothing within the EU changed it and yet somehow you think that going back to pre EU days takes it away?


Of course the UK can decide not to continue with it, but it has nothing to do with Brexit per se.

I'm saying that waving the CTA is not a defence against the UK shutting up shop as part of its post-Brexit relationship with the EU

Mr.Nice Guy

BBC's Andrew Neil is chairman of The Spectator. Here's this week's cover:

https://twitter.com/spectator/status/1052546673711435776

Add to that the Today Programme's John Humphrys offering his daily dose of Brexiteer spin, dismissing the UK's promise over the Backstop, and it's apparent that influential forces in the British media are happy to push a narrative that concerns over the border are not to be taken seriously, and that the EU are simply using it to make life difficult for the UK.

Really sad the state of discourse across the water and I suspect we'll hear this type of commentary ramp up over the coming weeks. It will need to be challenged and Coveney did well dealing with it from Humphrys. Hopefully the EU will continue to support us as well.

flutered

Asmooh wrote: »

Compare housing prices for example IRE vs NI...
Compare cars
Compare Electronics
Compare taxes
Compare electricity
And much more

what about income, why no mention of that

Nody

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

BBC's Andrew Neil is chairman of The Spectator. Here's this week's cover

How or whom exactly is EU suppose to use Ireland to divide and rule? It's not like the Tories/Labour/DUP are pushing for the EU preferred solution or anything like that 18 months in...

Sam Russell

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

BBC's Andrew Neil is chairman of The Spectator. Here's this week's cover:

https://twitter.com/spectator/status/1052546673711435776

Add to that the Today Programme's John Humphrys offering his daily dose of Brexiteer spin, dismissing the UK's promise over the Backstop, and it's apparent that influential forces in the British media are happy to push a narrative that concerns over the border are not to be taken seriously, and that the EU are simply using it to make life difficult for the UK.

Really sad the state of discourse across the water and I suspect we'll hear this type of commentary ramp up over the coming weeks. It will need to be challenged and Coveney did well dealing with it from Humphrys. Hopefully the EU will continue to support us as well.

The Spectator cover has the NI border in the wrong place. Surprise surprise.

Akrasia

briany wrote: »

She might go down as that in the capsule version of history, but it would have been a tad more complicated than that.

TM is on course to be one of the most incompetent PMs in history. She took over with a slim but workable majority and a job to do, to deliver a workable Brexit.

She decided to activate Article 50 in March 2017. She saw a surge in poll numbers supporting the Tories on the back of nationalistic fervour so she decided to hold a snap election which massively backfired due to her terrible campaign strategy and left her 13 seats short of where she was, and 9 seats short of forming a government.

So rather than form a moderate coalition in the national interest, she shook hands with with the DU effin P, (using a billion £ bribe of public funds). She has spent the last year bumbling from place to place making statements and immediately backpedaling on them, appointing incompetent and dangerous spoofers like Boris Johnson to cabinet and generally doing everything to preserve her own tenure as PM and keep her infighting party intact and nothing to protect the interests of her country or the peace so delicately negotiated only 20 years ago.

Her legacy now is whether she presides over a mere calamity, or a genuine catastrophe, because I can't think of a single positive thing she has actually achieved

joe40

Leroy42 wrote: »

So it existed before the EU, nothing within the EU changed it and yet somehow you think that going back to pre EU days takes it away?

Of course the UK can decide not to continue with it, but it has nothing to do with Brexit per se.

But at no point have the UK said they want to change the CTA, and Ireland doesn't. That is why it is irrelevant. That someone might try to leverage it in as part of the process is of course possible, but since it has nothing to do with the EU I fail to see how it would make any difference to them.

This has confused me from the start. If there is free movement of people from EU to republic, free movement of people from republic to ni (not counting goods) free move from ni to Britain.
How is that not free movement of people from EU to Britain. Maybe I'm missing something.

ancapailldorcha

I think it gets worse for the Tories. Their voting bloc is dying off while the system which is supposed to be continuously lining up the next generation of Conservative voters is failing catastrophically. If it weren't, we wouldn't have had the vote to Leave. Allegedly, Theresa May was known as a competent administrator before she became PM. Administrators aren't leaders. They're the people who keep things together until the next manager is found.

May has proposed no vision for Britain beyond soundbytes. Brexit is the biggest problem facing the UK but it isn't the only one. There's rampant economic inequality, an aging population, austerity, food banks, etc. I don't really know what Mayism is beyond a fetish for state surveillance and an end to individual privacy.

I don't blame her for calling an election in 2017. She had a minuscule majority. I blame her for ceding huge amounts of power to two unelected "chiefs", Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy who were reviled in Westminster. Timothy co-wrote the manifesto with Ben Gumner and kept even senior Conservatives out of the loop. Thus, we ended up with a well intentioned but politically disastrous attempt to rebalance the inherent inequality of British society by having seniors shoulder some of the burden for their care. It's frightening that they only lost a dozen or so seats. Or FPTP. Who knows?

In other news, Boris Johnson has lingered on because remains popular with Conservative voters and party members. From YouGov:







Source.

lawred2

joe40 wrote: »

This has confused me from the start. If there is free movement of people from EU to republic, free movement of people from republic to ni (not counting goods) free move from ni to Britain.
How is that not free movement of people from EU to Britain. Maybe I'm missing something.

free movement of Irish and UK citizens between the two islands without need for visas etc

joe40

lawred2 wrote: »

joe40 wrote: »

This has confused me from the start. If there is free movement of people from EU to republic, free movement of people from republic to ni (not counting goods) free move from ni to Britain.
How is that not free movement of people from EU to Britain. Maybe I'm missing something.

free movement of Irish and UK citizens between the two islands without need for visas etc

But how do you check if they are irish or UK citizens without border checks

An Ciarraioch

Tajani, President of European Parliament: EU wants agreement but not at any price, if no agreement on Ireland, Parliament will reject treaty. Nothing substantially new in May's content, four freedoms can't be divided.

FrancieBrady

What are the best twitter accounts to watch tonight?

Hurrache

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Add to that the Today Programme's John Humphrys offering his daily dose of Brexiteer spin, dismissing the UK's promise over the Backstop, and it's apparent that influential forces in the British media are happy to push a narrative that concerns over the border are not to be taken seriously, and that the EU are simply using it to make life difficult for the UK.

Really sad the state of discourse across the water and I suspect we'll hear this type of commentary ramp up over the coming weeks. It will need to be challenged and Coveney did well dealing with it from Humphrys. Hopefully the EU will continue to support us as well.

I watched Channel 4 news this evening, Prescott got an easy ride from the interviewer, maybe he was afraid of getting a punch if he went too hard. Mairead McGuinness followed him.

Constantly interrupted and cut off. She was well able for him. The TV media in general really have bought into the them vs us narrative.

First Up

flutered wrote:

what about income, why no mention of that

Or job prospects

MrMusician18

I'd that an ironic cover from the Spectator? The UK has been attempting divide and conquer across the continent for two years on this, briefing against Ireland (i somehow doubt the Spectator mentions that).

I don't understand how someone as partisan as Neil is allowed on the so called balanced BBC?

ilovesmybrick

Just listening to the Irish times podcast today. On top of Coveney on the interview earlier barely holding in his frustration, Fintan O'Toole seems on the verge of going wtf are they doing. I know O'Toole can be...passionate, on a topic, but when you consider Ireland has so much to lose on this and then you have major politicians and commentators on the verge of losing it because the UK doesn't understand their own bloody country I'm amazed that the negotiations have actually gone this far without collapse.

Can we send Westminster the junior cert history section of our old textbooks, because a quick read of those once over the past two years might have helped them understand the serious issues, in their own damn country.

Kermit.de.frog

BBC reporting that Theresa May offered NOTHING NEW in her presentation according to an EU official.

What the...?

flutered

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

We're in the bizarre position where SF are arguing for a deal that will probably put the North's constitutional question back in the cupboard for a couple of decades while the DUP seem hell bent on making it an issue and indeed are risking breaking up the UK if there's no Britain-EU deal.

sf are playing at slowly, slowly catche monkey

ilovesmybrick

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Just listening to the Irish times podcast today. On top of Coveney on the interview earlier barely holding in his frustration, Fintan O'Toole seems on the verge of going wtf are they doing. I know O'Toole can be...passionate, on a topic, but when you consider Ireland has so much to lose on this and then you have major politicians and commentators on the verge of losing it because the UK doesn't understand their own bloody country I'm amazed that the negotiations have actually gone this far without collapse.

Can we send Westminster the junior cert history section of our old textbooks, because a quick read of those once over the past two years might have helped them understand the serious issues, in their own damn country.

O'Toole was excellent on The View last week too. You can really sense his frustration at times.

I'm not a 'believer' in all things O'Toole, but I think he's captured the essence of the problem of Brexit (a display of English Nationalism) really well in pieces he's written and interviews he's given too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3tkNQBiBB0

charlie14

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

BBC reporting that Theresa May offered NOTHING NEW in her presentation according to an EU official.

What the...?

While at the same time The Telegraph is reporting she has said "now is the time" to secure a Brexit deal with the EU, as she arrives in Brussels for a summit where she will put her proposals to the bloc`s leaders.


....and people wonder how the British public cannot see what is coming their way in the event of a no deal !

flutered

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

We're in the bizarre position where SF are arguing for a deal that will probably put the North's constitutional question back in the cupboard for a couple of decades while the DUP seem hell bent on making it an issue and indeed are risking breaking up the UK if there's no Britain-EU deal.

sf are playing at slowly, slowly catche monkey

charlie14 wrote: »

zapitastas wrote: »

The absolute worst of them were taken into the fold and allowed to operate with impunity around Armagh and down.

If that is where they went then it would part explain a lot of what subsequently went on in that area. Especially south Armagh.
I was then living in Donegal and after 1970, bad and all as the UDR were in the border areas there, they were better than the B Specials. With special emphasis on the B.

better known in the border regions as the b men, more nasty than the nasty party

An Ciarraioch

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What are the best twitter accounts to watch tonight?

Tony Connelly will usually have any breaking developments, with Faisal Islam the best UK counterpart. Laura Kuenssberg will also be quick, but nothing by way of analysis.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

BBC reporting that Theresa May offered NOTHING NEW in her presentation according to an EU official.

What the...?

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1052631057324011527?s=19


But they are saying she's apparently considering the offer of the extension
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1052638560061292544?s=19

Kermit.de.frog

From the post meeting press conference - President of the European Parliament

Despite conceding Mrs May looked keen on striking a deal with the EU, he said the content of what she is proposing is "not acceptable" for the EU, explaining the prime minister didn't offer anything new in terms of content that could bring the bloc to sign her proposal.

He continued: "The European Parliament wants to reach a deal because it's a positive things for both the UK and the EU - but not at any cost.

"If the UK won't agree on avoiding a hard border in Ireland, the EU Parliament will vote against the Brexit deal proposed.

"I have listened to Mrs May with attention and I believe her words were more positive than the one she said in Salzburg.

"She gave messages of desire of reaching an agreement, the political tone was right but I didn't find substantial changes on the contents of her speech."

Mr Tajani said Mrs May said it is vital for the UK to maintain Great Britain united, but this stance could clash with the EU's proposal of maintaining Ireland without a hard border.

He continued: "We can't accept our single market to be torn apart, we defend the unity of the freedoms it grants, of movement and of goods."

Mr Tajani added the political will of striking an agreement shown by Mrs May makes him look positively at the chances of avoiding a no-deal Brexit.

However, the EU is not ready to step back from its stance on the hard border in Ireland.

He said: "The key point is the backstop. We want to protect the Irish Republic. For us that's the priority."

Mr Tajani added he is in favour of prolonging the transition period, making it three-year long rather than two-year long.

Rhineshark

joe40 wrote: »

But how do you check if they are irish or UK citizens without border checks

Pro-EU, RoI and the UK had a delicate set of gentleman's agreements that meant the two countries would stay aligned in terms of who they let in (and thus who could get to the other country). Post-WW2, the UK needed immigrants, many being Irish and also many Commonwealth to rebuild the country, so they weren't overly worried. And it's not like RoI was a centre for immigration or anything so it seemed to work.

During EU, both countries were aligned, etc. Overwrote the CTA more or less but the CTA remained under it.

Post-EU, the plan, such as it is, is not to particularly worry about immigration to the UK via Ireland but to use employers as immigration agents, essentially. No paperwork, no job. Therefore, bar a burgeoning black market, it won't matter because illegals will be locked out of British society even if they get onto British soil.

Tbh, if and when things get as bad as they undoubtedly will in a No Deal scenario, I entirely expect the CTA to become a target for populists, be it due to "unfettered" EUmmigration or due to RoI being blamed for Brexit being a disastor for daring to stick to our guns when it was unhelpful to the UK.

flutered

Leroy42 wrote: »

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

A no-deal crash out in March would be absolutely and immediately catastrophic for the UK. They cannot do it, and any threat to do it is an empty threat.

Im any sane debate it would be an empty threat, but I really think there are plenty of voters and MPs that have convinced themselves that the EU is the root cause of all their problems and as such getting out of it anyway you can is the least worst option.

Many seem to have accepted that there will be a hit economically, for the short term, but that the advantages outweight any losses.

On that basis, why would they not opt for a crash out?  They seem to be of the opinion that a crash out is no more than simply not being a member of the club, that everything else will continue as before.  

Now, whether that group is enough to bring it about it the question.

they also live in the belif that if they crash out, it will help in the break up of the eu, this is their ultimate wet dream

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/shufflepaw/status/1052634571345399808


VERY interesting point.

How can the UK do a free trade deal with USA if there is a frictionless border on the island of Ireland!?

Hurrache

Bit of backstory as to why Britain have become so untrustworthy on the backstop, some feel they were tricked, basically blaming others for their own failings
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1052519655468875777?s=19

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1052635295814959111


Worst of all worlds for DUP and Brexiteers by the sounds of it!!

Rhineshark

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1052635295814959111


Worst of all worlds for DUP and Brexiteers by the sounds of it!!

More to the point, will the EU buy having a fractious semi-member with its economy sinking into the Thames for an indeterminate period where they can drop out at any moment in return for screwing Ireland and essentially wasting two years.

I doubt it.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/shufflepaw/status/1052634571345399808


VERY interesting point.

How can the UK do a free trade deal with USA if there is a frictionless border on the island of Ireland!?

Prescott earlier said that he thinks the US are ready to deal, possibly related. But at this point I'm cynical and would not be surprised it's yet more kite flying and water muddying.

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1052635295814959111


Worst of all worlds for DUP and Brexiteers by the sounds of it!!

They will and rightly so. There must be an election before June 2023 but it is likely that there would be an election before then. Adding a year to the transition period further jeopardises Brexit as the Brexiteers and the DUP would probably lose their influence given that the country is slowly shifting towards Remain. Time is of the essence for them.

FrancieBrady

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tony Connelly will usually have any breaking developments, with Faisal Islam the best UK counterpart. Laura Kuenssberg will also be quick, but nothing by way of analysis.

Cheers. As Vinnie might have said, 'the tweet machine is busy tonight'.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-17/how-tiny-moldova-s-brexit-grudge-could-cost-u-k-1-7-trillion

UK arguing for special status with regards to the Government Procurement Agreement within the WTO. However, some diplomatic efforts (or lack thereof) have been noticed...

Shock horror, interdependence goes beyond the EU, I wonder how long before the Leave.WTO campaign complains about this infraction into the sovereignty of the UK?

Important to note, by the way, that it isn't just 'little' Moldova that has issues with how the UK is hoping to sneak into global administration - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-17/u-s-is-said-to-stall-u-k-bid-to-stay-in-1-7-trillion-market

An Ciarraioch

As predicted, no new summit unless and until there is a breakthrough between the interlocutors:

http://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1052644812296519680

flutered

Mezcita wrote: »

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

To my litany of disasters earlier, add: sterling collapses, emergency currency controls to stop a flood of capital fleeing the country, bank runs, stock market chaos.

This will happen before Brexit day just as soon as the market realizes no deal is coming.

Sterling tanking could actually be the thing which forces the Government to do a deal.

Possibly best suited for the Gambling forum but shouldn't we all therefore be shorting Sterling?   Meaning, the vast majority of us in here seem to think that the UK is about to drive off the cliff.   The markets think otherwise from the current look of it.  

Kind of reminds me of Brexit's odds of actually happening a few weeks before the vote.  They got that wrong...

the main players got it very right re the tip offs from the exit polls