Russia has just lost a spy plane and 15 crew members are dead ( Syria)

Cheerful Spring

Happened overnight the Israelis are being blamed by the Russians for the incident. The Syria air defence shot it down by mistake. The Russians claim the Israelis used the plane as cover to attack Syrian and Iranian targets. It's a serious incident and the Russian are very unhappy and they claim they now have a right to respond.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/09/18/russia-says-military-jet-lost-over-mediterranean.html

Sassygirl1999

Its all a bit too misconstrued to blame the Israelis
Blame the Syrians

Rhineshark

Oooh..sh*t.

This is pretty much exactly what ...well, one side has been worried about happening for months. Israel drags in the US and things get a bit less proxy.

It probably wasn't Israel but if this is the line Putin's taking, it gets messy.

So, which side will Trump go for?

Sassygirl1999

Rhineshark wrote: »

Oooh..sh*t.

This is pretty much exactly what ...well, one side has been worried about happening for months. Israel drags in the US and things get a bit less proxy.

It probably wasn't Israel but if this is the line Putin's taking, it gets messy.

So, which side will Trump go for?

Trump is hardly going to go for the Syrians side , he has no hotels or businesses there

Rhineshark

Sassygirl1999 wrote: »

Trump is hardly going to go for the Syrians side , he has no hotels or businesses there

Never mind the Syrians, Russia is blaming (correctly or not) Israel. That is the choice Trump is faced with. I'm sure he'd love to just drop some bombs on Syria and call it sorted.

Infini

Could be also Putin bluffing to the home audience that its all the Israelis fault and not chalk it up to a friendly fire incident.

Sassygirl1999

Infini wrote: »

Could be also Putin bluffing to the home audience that its all the Israelis fault and not chalk it up to a friendly fire incident.

the Israelis and French were both bombing Syria at the time, the biggest winner in this is Iran because now the Russians will start shooting at Israel warplanes that were previously given leeway, this will give the Iranians and Hezbollah more cover to move arms south , the plot is thickening nicely

skepticalme

The French did not fire, Israel tried to make it look like they did. Israeli submarines fired under cover of the French ship.and the Israeli jets took cover and set up the Russian plane that was shot down. Agreement on Idlib the day before, Israel does not want peace breaking out. Snakes.

recedite

skepticalme wrote: »

The French did not fire, Israel tried to make it look like they did. Israeli submarines fired under cover of the French ship.and the Israeli jets took cover and set up the Russian plane that was shot down. Agreement on Idlib the day before, Israel does not want peace breaking out. Snakes.

Seems the most likely explanation. Those Israelis are very clever and devious.
Reminds me of the theory that a Ukrainian SU-25 jet was using MH17 for cover during a raid.

Israel admitted it was helping jihadis in Syria, even though that endangered the Druze population inside and around Israel's border.

Anything that keeps arabs fighting each other is seen as being good for Israel. Which, in fairness, is quite true.

Putin will let this go. Just like he did when Turkey shot down a Russian jet. He always sees the bigger picture. Keeps his eye on the end game. That's how he wins.

archer22

Of course its Israel's fault...the Syrians wouldn't have been launching SAM missiles if they hadn't been attacking them.

Also Putin shares some responsibility for not blasting the Zios out of the sky with his S400s or at least supplying this advanced weapon to Syria instead of the antique S200 he has given them.

Sassygirl1999

I don't agree with anti semitism but I get what you are saying

moceri

Sassygirl1999 wrote: »

I don't agree with anti semitism but I get what you are saying

Antisemitism is not the same as Antizionism and the two terms are not interchangeable.

recedite

archer22 wrote: »

Also Putin shares some responsibility for not blasting the Zios out of the sky with his S400s or at least supplying this advanced weapon to Syria instead of the antique S200 he has given them.

The Syrians have just shot down one of his planes. He is not going to put them in charge of his most powerful weapons systems
I think in this case, the Russians would have shot down the Israelis if they had come anywhere near Latakia air base. But they are always careful to avoid the Russian base, preferring to launch sneak attacks against the more southerly Syrian positions, and always using an unexpected and circuitous route; never flying in directly from Israel.

archer22

recedite wrote: »

The Syrians have just shot down one of his planes. He is not going to put them in charge of his most powerful weapons systems
I think in this case, the Russians would have shot down the Israelis if they had come anywhere near Latakia air base. But they are always careful to avoid the Russian base, preferring to launch sneak attacks against the more southerly Syrian positions, and always using an unexpected and circuitous route; never flying in directly from Israel.

They shot down the plane because they don't have advanced weapons and radar.
Anyhow the likely hood is that this is exactly what Israel planned to happen...especially if they also launched missiles from near a French warship.

Its nothing new to them..remember the USS Liberty?

Anyhow who the hell wants to be allies with them...they will happily shoot their own friends in the back if they think they can gain something from it!.

Cheerful Spring

Russia is playing nice with Israel because if they gave Syria S-400 their jets be falling out of the sky. Syria is still using S-200 it's older but still can do a lot of damage. Russia will not go to war over this, because a war with Israel involves the United States. Russia seems to have called off the Idlib offensive, for now, they seem to have worked out some closed backdoor deal with Turkey. Iran and Syria seem to have accepted this proposal least for now.

demfad

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

Happened overnight the Israelis are being blamed by the Russians for the incident. The Syria air defence shot it down by mistake. The Russians claim the Israelis used the plane as cover to attack Syrian and Iranian targets. It's a serious incident and the Russian are very unhappy and they claim they now have a right to respond.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/09/18/russia-says-military-jet-lost-over-mediterranean.html

I would disregard any information coming from the Russian side. The story used will be based on how it can benefit/avoid embarrassing Russia most.

recedite

There seems to be some doubt about whether the Auvergne actually launched missiles, but it also seems they were involved in some way, maybe acting as spotters. And launching something or other, just to create added confusion for the Syrians ad Russians.
The French formerly had a lot of influence in Lebanon and Syria. They are annoyed at gradually losing it.
Good to see that Trump stayed out of this deliberate and dangerous provocation, anyway.

Manic Moran

Hang on, Moceri. Are you seriously postulating that France is deliberately trying to get NATO into a shooting war with Russia?

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Blog post dump deleted.

Gatling

So the famed Syrian air defence systems finally shoot an aircraft down ,

But they could be only hit one of their russian allies pretty comical stuff ,
Did they ever produce any proof of shooting down the cruise missiles British , American and French forces deployed against chemical weapons facilities not so long ago.


But wait did I actually read someone blamed Israeli submarines?

lol

gandalf

Putin would want to be very careful. The Israelis are top of the list of all the entities in the ME you don't threaten. Russia will have to watch its mouth on this one.

weisses

Gatling wrote: »

So the famed Syrian air defence systems finally shoot an aircraft down ,

But they could be only hit one of their russian allies pretty comical stuff ,
Did they ever produce any proof of shooting down the cruise missiles British , American and French forces deployed against chemical weapons facilities not so long ago.


But wait did I actually read someone blamed Israeli submarines?

lol

Im surprised they didn't blame an Ukrainian su25

Syrians did put a lot of ordnance into the air ..They didn't know who they were shooting at

Gatling

weisses wrote: »

Im surprised they didn't blame an Ukrainian su25

Syrians did put a lot of ordnance into the air ..They didn't know who they were shooting at

Actually didn't russia come out with an other MH 17 theory this week too ,
But on a serious not rebels have shotdown the majority of assads airforce maybe the Assad decided he needed to get on on the score sheet before it's too late ,

It shows the shambles the Assad regime are still in ,they will need Iranian and russians fighting for another decade if assad actually lasts that long ,pull out Iranian and russians assad forces will be rolled over again

Infini

gandalf wrote: »

Putin would want to be very careful. The Israelis are top of the list of all the entities in the ME you don't threaten. Russia will have to watch its mouth on this one.

They're also reportedly a Nuclear State as well though I believe it's never been officially confirmed as one. Domestic BS aside it's not something anyone would wanna go too far on beyond some condemnations as it would get ugly otherwise.

dreamers75

I think the weapon Syria used is more the issue, the plane was hit with something Syria doesnt have.

The Russians have given/sold the BUKs which as we all know can hit something at 38,000ft the max for the IL20.

So did the russians hit their own jet with their own missiles or were Syrians using them? A flak cannon aint hitting anything that high.

Assuming it was flying as a recon plane at the highest it could fly at.

BoJack Horseman

dreamers75 wrote: »

the plane was hit with something Syria doesnt have

No, the Russian MoD confirmed the shoot-down was by an SA-5, which Syria has in quantity

Gatling

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

No, the Russian MoD confirmed the shoot-down was by an SA-5, which Syria has in quantity

Wonder if they were literally shooting into the dark ,they can't claim Israeli jets hid behind the IL 20 and tried to hit them going through the spy plane .

BoJack Horseman

Gatling wrote: »

Wonder if they were literally shooting into the dark ,they can't claim Israeli jets hid behind the IL 20 and tried to hit them going through the spy plane .

Correct on both counts.

Syria does (almost) fire blindly.
The SA-5 is guided to target by a ground based radar, it has no active radar seeker of its own.
Apparently Syrian ground radar is mediocre at best.
That is how the Israeli F-16 got tagged earlier in the year.
It faced a volley of something like 20 SA-5s and these missiles have massive 200kg warheads.... so this blanket of explosive shrapnel caused the Israeli Viper to crash land.

You are also correct on the 2nd point.
the Israeli F-16 was already back in Israeli airspace when the Syrians returned fire,

It seems they didn't make the effort to properly identify Ivan's patrol plane before firing.

Incompetence coupled with mediocre tech

Elmer Blooker

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Incompetence coupled with mediocre tech

And there you have it! Have I not been saying for a few years now that the Russian "threat" and Russian "aggression" is a complete myth invented and exaggerated by the media and am I not correct? Of course I was labelled a 'Putinbot' for stating what we now know is fact.
Of course it's a old trick, for example in the 1980s when the Soviet Union was dying on its feet in Afghanistan Reagan convinced the world that they were a threat to the world - the result is always the same which is an increase in military spending.

Putin will need to be careful now as he showing weakness and indecisiveness at home which will suit the Liberal Democrats opposition led by ultra-nationalist Zhirinovsky. Few of you will have heard of these Liberal Democrats as the western media denies their existence in order to build up some guy called Navalny as the "only real opposition" to Putin in Russia but believe me they are a large opposition party and the world can do without them getting into power! There is nothing liberal or democratic about them!

BoJack Horseman

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

And there you have it! Have I not been saying for a few years now that the Russian "threat" and Russian "aggression" is a complete myth invented and exaggerated by the media and am I not correct

I stated that the 50 year old SA-5 mediocre.

You then put 2+2 and came up with the square root of -1000

But whatever it takes to feel validated, I support you.

mcmoustache

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

And there you have it! Have I not been saying for a few years now that the Russian "threat" and Russian "aggression" is a complete myth invented and exaggerated by the media and am I not correct?

You were saying it as Russia invaded Ukraine. You were wrong then and you're wrong now.

Gatling

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

I stated that the 50 year old SA-5 mediocre.

You then put 2+2 and came up with the square root of -1000

But whatever it takes to feel validated, I support you.

By all accounts when russian forces arrived in Syria it was found most of the air defence radar's were no longer operational and needed a lot of effort to get working again ,
But believe russians were tasked with operating various systems

badtoro

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

And there you have it! Have I not been saying for a few years now that the Russian "threat" and Russian "aggression" is a complete myth invented and exaggerated by the media and am I not correct?

Agree with you 100%, you are not correct.

RandomName2

mcmoustache wrote: »

You were saying it as Russia invaded Ukraine. You were wrong then and you're wrong now.

Russia last invaded the Ukraine in 1942. If you are talking about the Russian backed rebels, or the annexation of Crimea those are different (and not minor) issues. Russia has certainly perpetuated the ongoing crisis in the Ukraine, to its own ends, but making out they launched a full scale invasion of the Ukraine is grossly inaccurate and silly. For one thing they would conquer Ukraine in a week.

Gatling

RandomName2 wrote: »

Russia has certainly perpetuated the ongoing crisis in the Ukraine, to its own ends, but making out they launched a full scale invasion of the Ukraine is grossly inaccurate and silly. Fo

Invaded , annexed and currently occupiers of parts of Ukraine ,

They would have taken a week,
odd after three days of a sneak attack on Georgia when Georgian forces got their act together and shot down 10 + russian aircraft they withdrew to safer borders ,
They didn't exactly roll over the Ukrainian military in the end ,the Russians were held off by essentially a rag tag bunch of militias

skepticalme

Russian MOD step by step downing of Russian plane. Totally Israel's fault and not pleased with them after all Russia has done for them.


https://youtu.be/Qg9GliGS0RY

Elmer Blooker

Gatling wrote: »

They would have taken a week,
odd after three days of a sneak attack on Georgia when Georgian forces got their act together and shot down 10 + russian aircraft they withdrew to safer borders ,

Stop distorting the facts, there was no 'sneak' attack on Georgia.
The Georgians started the war and were the aggressors (no doubt with the help of 'advisors') according to an EU report.

It was commissioned by the Council of the European Union, and written by Swiss diplomat Heidi Tagliavini, with the help of 30 European military, legal and history experts.
The conflict erupted on 7 August 2008, as Georgia shelled the breakaway region of South Ossetia,

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8281990.stm

Gatling

skepticalme wrote: »

Russian MOD step by step downing of Russian plane. Totally

Russians did the same nonsense explanation for when they shot down flight MH17 ,
Blaming everyone but themselves .

Sassygirl1999

Gatling wrote: »

Russians fault

no one blaming Syria even though they shot

Gatling

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The Georgians started the war and were the aggressors (no doubt with the help of 'advisors') according to an EU report.

Actually according to the same report you claim Georgia was blamed the full report puts the blame at Russia for starting it ,

But as you well know we dealt with this on multiple other threads the facts don't change.


So back to the Syrian finally shooting an aircraft down ,Russia blamed Israel then vladi himself publicly stated it was an accident ,

So I'd hazard a guess russians might have being involved in the actual launch it certainly would not have being the first time shooting an aircraft down they shouldn't have

skepticalme

Russia has decided to upgrade to the S300 defence in Syria as a consequence of Israeli actions. To be supplied in 2 weeks.

Sassygirl1999

skepticalme wrote: »

Russia has decided to upgrade to the S300 defence in Syria as a consequence of Israeli actions. To be supplied in 2 weeks.

ironic considering the reason they didn't upgrade it in 2013 was due to Israeli objections

recedite

Sassygirl1999 wrote: »

ironic considering the reason they didn't upgrade it in 2013 was due to Israeli objections

Its not ironic, its logic. Russian policy is based on self interest, which is best looked after by adopting a tit-for-tat approach in these situations.
This is what the Israelis get for behaving recklessly and causing Russian deaths.

recedite

If the Israelis had shot down the plane directly, they might be facing the S400 now.

Sassygirl1999

recedite wrote: »

Its not ironic, its logic. Russian policy is based on self interest, which is best looked after by adopting a tit-for-tat approach in these situations.
This is what the Israelis get for behaving recklessly and causing Russian deaths.

It's ironic that the Israelis have brought into being one of their greatest fears

Cheerful Spring

skepticalme wrote: »

Russia has decided to upgrade to the S300 defence in Syria as a consequence of Israeli actions. To be supplied in 2 weeks.

The Israelis will have a harder time now striking targets in Syria. Russia also announced they go start jamming navigation in the area as well. That includes satellite navigation, onboard radars and communication systems of combat aircraft used by foreign forces.

Cheerful Spring

recedite wrote: »

Its not ironic, its logic. Russian policy is based on self interest, which is best looked after by adopting a tit-for-tat approach in these situations.
This is what the Israelis get for behaving recklessly and causing Russian deaths.

It's a big deal losing people of this calibre. Was a Russian spy plane that got shot down not easy to replace 14 people who were trained on how to operate the equipment on this plane. But I think the Russians used this an opportunity too to stop the Israelis from doing what they like in Syria.

Gatling

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

But I think the Russians used this an opportunity too to stop the Israelis from doing what they like in Syria.

Highly doubt it ,

Israel will hit what it wants regardless who's making threats ,they have the systems and methods to do so with impunity it will be interesting to see how they are going to block all radar and other equipment in the Mediterranean sea without causing issues to civilian traffic passing through on a daily basis

weisses

What is it with Russians and their allies and the shooting down of planes by mistake, and then blame it on everybody but themselves ...

recedite

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

It's a big deal losing people of this calibre. Was a Russian spy plane that got shot down not easy to replace 14 people who were trained on how to operate the equipment on this plane. But I think the Russians used this an opportunity too to stop the Israelis from doing what they like in Syria.

15 highly trained specialists plus a plane packed with high tech surveillance equipment is a big deal. The Russians would not need a pretext to shut down the Israeli air strikes on Hezbollah. However, the interests of Russia and Hezbollah are not the same, even though they both happen to be allied to Assad right now.
It might even turn out that the interests of Assad and Hezbollah will diverge after Assad regains full control of the country.
There are a lot of shifting alliances in the region. The bigger players have been careful not to confront each other blatantly and directly so far, but the Israelis have stepped right onto the red line by using the Russian plane as cover.

Gatling

recedite wrote: »

The bigger players have been careful not to confront each other blatantly and directly so far, but the Israelis have stepped right onto the red line by using the Russian plane as cover.

There is zero evidence of Israel using the russian plane for cover ,
By all accounts the Israeli F16 patrol was already heading home before the IL 20 was shot down ,so either russians operating the anti aircraft systems or the Syrians just launched a few missiles into the dark and hoped for the best ,
One way or the other the russian claims are false ,
Along with claims of Israeli submarines hiding under french vessels or that France may have shot down the plane accidentally,

Multiple Claims that cannot be backed up which is standard SOPs for russia