UFC 229 Nurmagomedov vs McGregor - Sat Oct 6th **Warning in first post!**

Mellor

I've given the s one a lot of thought. A few months ago I would have said Khabib grapples the life of our mMcGregor for 5. But not so sure about that after watching back fights, analysis, etc.
I think people in general are way over simplifying this fight. "If Khabib gets the takedown..." "If Conor connects..." blah blah blah. It's way more complex than that. Khabib takes lands a lot of takedowns. Either through standing up or the round ending. His opponents get to their feet a lot too. One takedown isn't going to be game over.
Similarly, McGregor may have starched Aldo and Poirier early. It's not a formality once he connects. Look at Diaz.
I find that parallel interesting as in both cases, as the fight goes on, both Khabib's takedowns and McGregors strikes will lose their pop. But also because the take downs and the power left are not either guys main asset.
Khabibs shooting takedown are the relatively weaker part of his game. Against Al he had one or two particular hopeful shots from range. But where he excels, is in the clinch and against the cage. Upper body control, dragging or throwing his opponent to the ground. Once on the mat guys are drowning. That's his game.
McGregor, same story. People always talk about the power in the left. They are wrong imo. He told us this himself "precision beats power...". Conor is the precision in that quip. He wins because he hits the mark repeatedly. Lighting people up. Look at the final knockdown in the Alvarez fight. Eddies threw one, Conor hit him 4 times in about a second. That's his game.
The interesting part, the way they each implement their have is a version of the same thing. Khabib walks straight ahead into clinch range, where he wants to be. Forcing guys to move away, and away until that are one the cage. They can't move away. Drowning. Conor stays at distance peppering then with shots, if they come into the pocket he counters, so they back into space, Conor presses and eventually that are on the cage (Brandao, Mendes, Diaz). Getting lit up.
That's where this fight is decided, who can dictate the range the most. And who puts the other person on the cage. Initially I thought Khabib would find success walking McGregor down, controlling both range and cage. But looking back at Conor's fights. He moves lateral well. If he does that, they'll circle the octagon rather than retreat to the cage. The longer he spends in his range the more he scores. If Khabib charges in to close the distance, we have to consider McGregor countering. Running into a punch is gonna do more damage.

Incredible close fight for me. Honestly not sure who takes it. Going to side with McGregor TKO/KO late in the 3rd or the 4th. Partially motivated by the huge odds.

McGregor by Decision

Conor will surprise everyone tonight and pull off a sub

Zero-Cool

McGregor by Sub

Ha Schaub was right!

https://twitter.com/shaunalshatti/status/1048373544881545217?s=19

Sofiztikated

Zero-Cool wrote: »

Ha Schaub was right!

https://twitter.com/shaunalshatti/status/1048373544881545217?s=19

Fools.

mangobob

Gamb!t wrote: »

Mcgregor also had an 8 inch reach advantage over Mendes and it didnt stop him getting him to the ground either :cool:

True. But McGregor was basically on one leg for that fight, and Mendes is an incredibly explosive wrestler. I remember thinking how tired he looked before that fight even began. But that didn't stop him getting up repeatedly and knocking Chad out.

I reckon Conors take down defence is significantly better now (quite a few analysts think this part of his game is really underrated). Plus I think he will be a lot stronger with better cardio at 155 than 145, which he basically had to kill himself to get to.

Nonetheless that doesn't mean he wont be taken down. I expect him to get taken down and beaten up. Its just a question of whether he can survive long enough to land sufficient shots that would stop the fight. Khabib has a good chin which he relies on a lot, but his head movement is non existent. A few times I watched him almost freeze when his opponent is hitting him, as if he doesnt know wtf to do. I genuinely think McGregor has a real chance of stopping him, even though the odds would favour Khabib on balance.

Gamb!t

Draw

mangobob wrote: »

True. But McGregor was basically on one leg for that fight, and Mendes is an incredibly explosive wrestler. I remember thinking how tired he looked before that fight even began. But that didn't stop him getting up repeatedly and knocking Chad out.

I reckon Conors take down defence is significantly better now (quite a few analysts think this part of his game is really underrated). Plus I think he will be a lot stronger with better cardio at 155 than 145, which he basically had to kill himself to get to.

Nonetheless that doesn't mean he wont be taken down. I expect him to get taken down and beaten up. Its just a question of whether he can survive long enough to land sufficient shots that would stop the fight. Khabib has a good chin which he relies on a lot, but his head movement is non existent. A few times I watched him almost freeze when his opponent is hitting him, as if he doesnt know wtf to do. I genuinely think McGregor has a real chance of stopping him, even though the odds would favour Khabib on balance.

I think he will figure out a way to get him to the ground as did Mendes.
He will be well aware of Mcgregors striking threat and be more cautious than usual in the first round.

brendanwalsh

Nurmagomedov by Decision

Hope the mcgregor nuthuggers enjoy their serving of bangers and smesh tonight.

Mod:Banned till tomorrow - I made myself quite clear in the first post.

mangobob

brendanwalsh wrote: »

Hope the mcgregor nuthuggers enjoy their serving of bangers and smesh tonight.

:rolleyes:

Whelo79

McGregor by Sub

I agree with you Mellor, it's a toss up. I remember watching Khabib destroy Johnson and at that time my actual words were 'Pray for Conor' because I believed it was likely he would do the same to McGregor.

The more you look into it the more you realise how even it is. I can honestly see any outcome bring possible, and I mean any. I probably have it 55/45 in Conor's favor and that's just because every round starts on the feet.

Personally I hope Conor wins. While I hate a lot of his non MMA persona, I love what he brings to the sport as a whole.

kwestfan08

Nurmagomedov by Decision

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12punznEmd0

Have to say I'm am officially buzzing after watching that and it's still about 16hrs till fight time

Tazzimus

Whelo79 wrote: »

I agree with you Mellor, it's a toss up. I remember watching Khabib destroy Johnson and at that time my actual words were 'Pray for Conor' because I believed it was likely he would do the same to McGregor.

The more you look into it the more you realise how even it is. I can honestly see any outcome bring possible, and I mean any. I probably have it 55/45 in Conor's favor and that's just because every round starts on the feet.

Personally I hope Conor wins. While I hate a lot of his non MMA persona, I love what he brings to the sport as a whole.

Most sensible people seem to have it 55-45 for Conor, it's that hard a fight to call.

Then you have the usual he'll be mauled, he'll be sparked in one etc.

Definitely one of the more anticipated fights in recent time due to the very different skill sets they both bring.

Useful.Idiot

McGregor by Sub

Im also in agreement with Mellor and Whelo. I don't agree with the narrative that Conor needs a flash knockout and that if Khabib lands one takedown then it's done. I feel Khabib is going to take some hard shots and survive, and that Conor is going to get taken down and mauled a bit but he'll survive. A lot of analysis is centered around how important cage cutting and control is and I would agree. Neither guy wants their back to the cage so very interested to see who controls the center if they're both pushing forward. Conor is also very skilled at attacking moving backwards or at angles, unlike Barboza and Johnson, so he'll be a constant very dangerous threat whenever its standing. I reckon it's going to go at least as far as round 3 with back and forth action, still have it about 50/50.

Have serious fizzy balls now.

Zero-Cool

McGregor by Sub

kwestfan08 wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12punznEmd0

Have to say I'm am officially buzzing after watching that and it's still about 16hrs till fight time

I need to watch Con Air after that!

Axwell

Lads if you want to discuss Whiskey do so in the other thread thanks

Whelo79

McGregor by Sub

kwestfan08 wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12punznEmd0

Have to say I'm am officially buzzing after watching that and it's still about 16hrs till fight time

Oh boy that's good. I seen a shorter version earlier this morning and it didn't grab me as much as this version. Consider my bumps officially goosed!

CatFromHue

Khabib has had 6 fights go to decision, 2 submissions, and 2 TKO in the UFC. Both of the subs were in the last round of each fight and one of the tko's was against Horcher who was a late call up and was his first fight in the UFC.

So looking at past fights if he does take McGregor down it's far from over, and I'd imagine he will take him down too.

I think McGregor will win, how I'm not so sure. Prob the way he usually does. The fight is 5 rounds and they all start on the feet.

McGregor by Decision

Is this a Jon Jones/DC kinda of hatred I wonder? or when the fights over will they make up. I know conor said "there will never be peace" but is that just to sell the fight?

robwen

McGregor by Sub

Were those flight attendants in red in the background during the weigh ins?

froog

McGregor by Sub

so how is everyone approaching this? drinking at normal time and powering through? or a strategic evening sleep and alarm for 3am? energy drinks/coffee?

weldoninhio

Nurmagomedov by Sub

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Is this a Jon Jones/DC kinda of hatred I wonder? or when the fights over will they make up. I know conor said "there will never be peace" but is that just to sell the fight?

Probably to sell the rematch no matter who wins.

Whelo79

McGregor by Sub

robwen wrote: »

Were those flight attendants in red in the background during the weigh ins?

Yes. Air Asia are sponsors.

Whelo79

McGregor by Sub

froog wrote: »

so how is everyone approaching this? drinking at normal time and powering through? or a strategic evening sleep and alarm for 3am? energy drinks/coffee?

I'm picking up a few friends around 10pm and going back to mine. First drink will take place whenever I park my ass on the couch.

eagle eye

froog wrote:

so how is everyone approaching this? drinking at normal time and powering through? or a strategic evening sleep and alarm for 3am? energy drinks/coffee?

Water only, best thing to keep you awake.

Sofiztikated

froog wrote: »

so how is everyone approaching this? drinking at normal time and powering through? or a strategic evening sleep and alarm for 3am? energy drinks/coffee?

Going for dinner with the Mrs, and some friends, probably drink too much, and try to stay awake.

RonanP77

froog wrote:

so how is everyone approaching this? drinking at normal time and powering through? or a strategic evening sleep and alarm for 3am? energy drinks/coffee?

Probably start drinking at 8:30 this evening watching some stuff I recorded last night, might snooze on the couch from midnight until 2:00, then start drinking again and back to bed when it all ends.

Useful.Idiot

McGregor by Sub

froog wrote: »

so how is everyone approaching this?

Would usually head back to a hosting house straight from a night out, tis usually pretty easy to stay awake. Not drinking tonight though and watching with friends who will have been drinking all day watching rugby

eagle eye

I read all of the posts saying this fight could be a long one but I just don't see it.
Conor isn't good on the floor so I expect him to be in big trouble if Khabib takes him down. I've noticed how bad his cardio is when he spends a lot of time on the floor.
Khabib doesn't ever seen to take a step backwards and that idea is insane against Conor. He will be down and out early if he goes in with that attitude.
Imo no chance this goes past two rounds, most likely over in the first.

CatFromHue

Deleted User wrote: »

Is this a Jon Jones/DC kinda of hatred I wonder? or when the fights over will they make up. I know conor said "there will never be peace" but is that just to sell the fight?

I would have thought it's genuine from them, or they genuinely don't like each other.

Pretty easy to see why from DC's point of view. Jones messes up, does some pretty bad things, and it's DC who's booed by the fans!!

I remember talking on here that I don't think fighters really get in each other's heads when someone put up a link saying that's exact;y what happened to DC in their first fight. Which makes sense as they had a bit of a scuffle immediately after the bell rung to end that fight.

Tazzimus

eagle eye wrote: »

Conor isn't good on the floor so I expect him to be in big trouble if Khabib takes him down.

On what evidence?
Against Mendes he had a ****ed knee, but still controlled him fairly well in his guard.
Against Diaz, he actually hit an X guard sweep , which was impressive in itself.

We haven't really seen his ground game tested properly, tonight we will.

One thing to note though, it's a lot better than people seem to think it is.

D.Q

robwen wrote: »

Were those flight attendants in red in the background during the weigh ins?

For when Khabib's nose goes flying.