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Dublin marathon to sell out in "few days"

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,016 ✭✭✭Itziger


    Yeah, that's a fair point. I'd say some races make a handy few bob on no-shows. And some are more generous with deferral and what not. Recent Lux marathon sold out early again this year, or at least the Half did. But the Finishing numbers are way, way lower than the cap on entrants.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 522 ✭✭✭theyoungchap


    Murph_D wrote: »
    Actually if Dublin can put on a marathon for only three times the Monaghan cost, they’re doing something right. :pac:

    Yeah and lets face it, most people would rather run around Dublin than Monaghan......


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,584 ✭✭✭ligerdub


    robinph wrote: »
    It was a self full filling prophecy. If they had said nothing then it would have sold out in a month, they just got it over and done with a bit quicker by posting that "prediction".

    No it wasn't. As I said a few days ago:

    May 10: 6,500 spaces left
    May 18: 4,000 spaces left
    May 23: 2,500 spaces left
    May 31: 0 left

    That "prediction" was spot on. The rate was almost linear. Not sure why you've been so quick to dismiss what they've said, especially when they were pretty much on the money.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,088 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    ligerdub wrote: »
    No it wasn't. As I said a few days ago:

    May 10: 6,500 spaces left
    May 18: 4,000 spaces left
    May 23: 2,500 spaces left
    May 31: 0 left

    That "prediction" was spot on. The rate was almost linear. Not sure why you've been so quick to dismiss what they've said, especially when they were pretty much on the money.

    20,000 places (give or take) but 6,500 of them sell within 20 days after they have already been on sale for 7 months isn't all that linear. When did they start the posts regarding it nearly being sold out? May 9th by any chance.

    Edit: Just had a quick scan of their twitter and they seemed to start posting about the number of places left right around the time of London marathon and they had about 50% sold at that point. I'm not criticising them in the slightest, generating the interest and convincing people that their product is about to sell out so you'd best buy it now is the whole point of what they had been posting. I was only pointing out that they hadn't been selling at that rate for the previous 7 months so the rate of sales would have to increase significantly, which they did thanks to them telling people that there was "limited" places available.

    It all happened exactly how they meant it to.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,584 ✭✭✭ligerdub


    robinph wrote: »
    20,000 places (give or take) but 6,500 of them sell within 20 days after they have already been on sale for 7 months isn't all that linear. When did they start the posts regarding it nearly being sold out? May 9th by any chance.

    No it was earlier than that, but that's hardly relevant. We could go back to say February but we know full well the rate was slower around then. The rate obviously increased more recently, as indeed people started making plans to train. I mean using their totals as an example, the sign-up rate from their 6,500 remaining post was much the same as the one from May 23rd.

    As said already in a previous post it's pretty foolish to use November as your starting base to analyse as 1) people swear off doing it again, 2) they don't know if they'll plan on doing one or would be fit to do it, 3) they know there's no pressing need to sign-up before now and 4) (previously unmentioned) people are generally strapped for cash around that time of year

    Not really a self-fulfilling prophecy, more looking at the recent trend and making a fairly sensible, and as it turned out accurate prediction of when it would sell out.

    I'm not sure why there was such cynicism and snide remarks about what they were posting anyway. They were only doing their bit to keep people informed and to avoid having to deal with requests for people trying to get in late or complain about not being told. They were warning people it was selling out because that's exactly what was happening.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,088 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    ligerdub wrote: »
    I'm not sure why there was such cynicism and snide remarks about what they were posting anyway.

    That is the problem with the written word on social media. There wasn't any cynicism or snide remarks, but the same sequence of words can be read with a completely different meaning to those that the writer intended. Apologies if you thought I was having a go at DCM previously, I wasn't at all. Was merely making observations and commenting on them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 601 ✭✭✭Slow_Runner


    Not enough data to definitively call a trend but if it is then expect approx 15500 finishers this year. Speaking to people a good few seem to have entered to keep their options open which would tie in to the drop in finishers vs entries. Next year could see it sell out late April/early May.

                         Sold Out            Entries         Finishers             %
    2015             n/a 15216 12938 85.03%
    2016 11-Aug 20000 16762 83.81%
    2017 12-Jul 20000 16104 80.52%
    2018 31-May 20000       ??     ??


    I suspect things will settle down in the coming years and you and finisher numbers will level off - question is where......

    As for when people enter, in a perfect world people would like to hold off and enter on the day!! Some people enter early as a motivational tool, most leave it as late as possible due to waiting to see how injuries/fitness are.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,088 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    The 80-83% numbers are probably within the normal variability for other marathons and big events of only ever having about 80% finishers v places sold. The 85% being the outlier because people didn't need to enter significantly in advance so I wouldn't include that number in any analysis... unless you've got the numbers for previous years when it also didn't sell out.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 522 ✭✭✭theyoungchap


    This must be the most pointless argument on the history of this website, nobody cares lads get over it!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 601 ✭✭✭Slow_Runner


    robinph wrote: »
    The 80-83% numbers are probably within the normal variability for other marathons and big events of only ever having about 80% finishers v places sold. The 85% being the outlier because people didn't need to enter significantly in advance so I wouldn't include that number in any analysis... unless you've got the numbers for previous years when it also didn't sell out.
    Was looking for that data to get a good handle n the change selling out early made - nothing online but would be in the program given out to every runner at the expo (don't have it t hand), but would be interesting to see
    London marathon has the analysis done and can predict to +/- 200 runners how many will make the start line. If Dublin started to compile this data themselves you could see the entry limit increase (unless their aim is to have 16-17k runners.
    Will be interesting to see if the numbers drop further this year with the earlier sell out date


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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,266 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    ligerdub wrote: »
    Not really a self-fulfilling prophecy

    Are those announcements a self fulfilling prophecy on both sides, in that I'm sure a lot of people explicitly wait for those countdown warnings before buying?

    I don't mean people coerced into signing through fear of missing out, but those who always intended to sign up anyway but who intentionally waited until the last minute.


  • Registered Users Posts: 462 ✭✭thebackbar


    Is there any way to get an entry now ? Could I run it for a charity ?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 522 ✭✭✭theyoungchap


    thebackbar wrote: »
    Is there any way to get an entry now ? Could I run it for a charity ?

    Possibly, try Irish Cancer Society, etc I think they get to keep a good few places in reserve for charity runners.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,135 ✭✭✭rom


    Selling out is great but it would be nice if they reserved spaces for athletics Ireland up to a later date. You would have to prove club membership and be entered into the champ. It would also be a way for people to get a few more people to join clubs as that would be an alternate way in. Other races have also gone down the charity route where charities entries can be got after a certain date if you raise x money. I think considering these for next year would be positive for the promotion of the event as a inclusive event. This is a big part of London for example and it helps on the appeal. It could make the product of DCM something that RTE may take on again as charity aspect would raise the overall profile of the event.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,088 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    rom wrote: »
    Selling out is great but it would be nice if they reserved spaces for athletics Ireland up to a later date. You would have to prove club membership and be entered into the champ. It would also be a way for people to get a few more people to join clubs as that would be an alternate way in. Other races have also gone down the charity route where charities entries can be got after a certain date if you raise x money. I think considering these for next year would be positive for the promotion of the event as a inclusive event. This is a big part of London for example and it helps on the appeal. It could make the product of DCM something that RTE may take on again as charity aspect would raise the overall profile of the event.

    More people dressed in silly outfits would certainly help with making TV coverage an easier sell. We may only be interested in watching the two and a half hours of elite athletics during London marathon, but most of the rest of the coverage they put on is about ordinary people wearing silly outfits for charity and people watching for the chance of seeing someone they know run past in the background.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,170 ✭✭✭Hard Worker


    rom wrote: »
    Other races have also gone down the charity route where charities entries can be got after a certain date if you raise x money. I think considering these for next year would be positive for the promotion of the event as a inclusive event. This is a big part of London for example and it helps on the appeal. It could make the product of DCM something that RTE may take on again as charity aspect would raise the overall profile of the event.

    London charge the charities huge money for entries. What you then have is a professional charity fundraiser, on a six figure salary, having an easy job of selling entries to desperate runners and asking them to raise a couple of thousand pounds. That doesn't do anyone any good.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,695 ✭✭✭Chivito550


    London charge the charities huge money for entries. What you then have is a professional charity fundraiser, on a six figure salary, having an easy job of selling entries to desperate runners and asking them to raise a couple of thousand pounds. That doesn't do anyone any good.

    How do you know this person is on a 6 figure sum?


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,438 ✭✭✭✭Murph_D


    Chivito550 wrote: »
    How do you know this person is on a 6 figure sum?

    He doesn’t - and the likelihood is that it’s a mid-five-figure sum (because why pay more?). The principle is the same though. Manufactured scarcity sold off as do-gooderness, at a price designed to attract a coterie of recreational runners of a reasonable enough standard (can finish marathon). It’s a big meh for most of us, but also helps pay the bills - albeit in a cynical way.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,414 ✭✭✭Testosterscone


    benjamin d wrote: »
    It'll be interesting to see if the dropout rate is higher than usual this year. Selling out 5 months in advance means most entrants wont have started training in earnest yet and I assume a lot of people won't start at all. At least when you enter a few weeks in advance you have a fair idea if you'll be ready or not.

    The opposite side of that coin is that you may not have people ramping up miles last min and actually help lay a better foundation going into marathon training there by reducing injury risk.

    Could end up with an overall better trained field (ideally)


  • Registered Users Posts: 60 ✭✭devilabit


    Just went to register and noticed its a sell out!! Gutted since I had my heart set on it and been training for over 2 months but thats the way it goes. Will need to look for something else but was trying to avoid having to travel somewhere as that just adds to the expense of the whole thing.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 522 ✭✭✭theyoungchap


    devilabit wrote: »
    Just went to register and noticed its a sell out!! Gutted since I had my heart set on it and been training for over 2 months but thats the way it goes. Will need to look for something else but was trying to avoid having to travel somewhere as that just adds to the expense of the whole thing.

    Berlin is at a similar time, and is supposed to be great. If you'd known you were going to do it you should have registered 2 months ago!


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,016 ✭✭✭Itziger


    devilabit wrote: »
    Just went to register and noticed its a sell out!! Gutted since I had my heart set on it and been training for over 2 months but thats the way it goes. Will need to look for something else but was trying to avoid having to travel somewhere as that just adds to the expense of the whole thing.

    Berlin is at a similar time, and is supposed to be great. If you'd known you were going to do it you should have registered 2 months ago!
    Berlin is about 6 weeks earlier!! And unless I'm mistaken, it sells out in half an hour. Frankfurt is the same day I think. Quite a few others in Oct/Nov.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 522 ✭✭✭theyoungchap


    Itziger wrote: »
    Berlin is about 6 weeks earlier!! And unless I'm mistaken, it sells out in half an hour. Frankfurt is the same day I think. Quite a few others in Oct/Nov.

    Ah I had heard it didn't sell out that quickly....fake news if so. Sorry!


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,438 ✭✭✭✭Murph_D


    Ah I had heard it didn't sell out that quickly....fake news if so. Sorry!

    Fake news? More like fake research! :p


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 522 ✭✭✭theyoungchap


    Murph_D wrote: »
    Fake news? More like fake research! :p

    Whoa steady on, I wouldn't insult "research" by putting it in the same category as 2nd hand information!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,340 ✭✭✭TFBubendorfer


    Itziger wrote: »
    Berlin is about 6 weeks earlier!! And unless I'm mistaken, it sells out in half an hour.

    No, not really. Instead they set a deadline for your application to get in and then they do a lottery deciding who gets in and who doesn't.

    Having said that, it doesn't change the fact that it sold out ages ago, so not really an alternative to Dublin.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,302 ✭✭✭positron


    Amsterdam is a week before Dublin marathon. And Reikjavic (sorry can't spell, capital of Iceland) marathon is same day as Dublin if I remember correctly - now that would be nice, imagine recovery in one of those natural warm water streams they have there...


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,849 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    devilabit wrote: »
    Just went to register and noticed its a sell out!! Gutted since I had my heart set on it and been training for over 2 months but thats the way it goes. Will need to look for something else but was trying to avoid having to travel somewhere as that just adds to the expense of the whole thing.

    Your heart wasn't that set on it, otherwise you would of done your research and entered earlier!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,340 ✭✭✭TFBubendorfer


    Your heart wasn't that set on it, otherwise you would of done your research and entered earlier!

    That's charming. Is it really necessary to kick someone when they're already down?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,016 ✭✭✭Itziger


    Your heart wasn't that set on it, otherwise you would of done your research and entered earlier!

    That's charming. Is it really necessary to kick someone when they're already down?
    Didn't I explain that traditional Irish expression in another thread?
    Never kick a man unless he's down.
    (I think it may have been Joyce or Wilde. Let me check.)


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