Has broadband technology plateaued?

Mad Mike

I am lucky enough to live in an urban area with choice of internet providers and for a ten year period from about 2005 to 2015 my broadband speed doubled every one to two years. Over that period my available service went from 1Mbps with a low data cap to just over 200 MBs without a cap. I changed providers a few times but for the most part the price remained roughly constant while the service just got better. Since 2015 however the technology seems to have stagnated. Virgin offers 360Mbs but that hardly feels like much of a step up and most of the providers are still only offering 100Mbs.

Has broadband technology plateaued or are there more developments coming?

turbbo

Mad Mike wrote: »

I am lucky enough to live in an urban area with choice of internet providers and for a ten year period from about 2005 to 2015 my broadband speed doubled every one to two years. Over that period my available service went from 1Mbps with a low data cap to just over 200 MBs without a cap. I changed providers a few times but for the most part the price remained roughly constant while the service just got better. Since 2015 however the technology seems to have stagnated. Virgin offers 360Mbs but that hardly feels like much of a step up and most of the providers are still only offering 100Mbs.

Has broadband technology plateaued or are there more developments coming?

Broadband technology has not plateaued - all that has happened is wireless technologies have been racing ahead putting pressure on the wired services to invest and upgrade their kit.3G/4G(LTE) have moved DSL to second place especially if you live far away from an exchange. Along with recent enough developments in internet video streaming and a move to more time spent online by the general population - all of this has moved things along very quickly in recent times.

The POTS has finally given up the ghost for internet communication and fibre is taking it's place these are the improvements you have seen in the last few years(fibre replacing copper - getting closer to your house everytime before it's eventually all fibre ->FTTH). Before that we had to make do with DSL - which was really only ever a stop gap to re-use the POTS without having to rebuild all the communications network out in fibre(way too expensive 20 years ago - but fibre tech did exist back then) - which is currently now underway 2 decades later - to give you an idea of how long we wallowed in DSL before it became obsolete. Fibre technologies are also improving so it's unlikely that any of it will stand still but you won't see a jump like DSL -> Fibre probably ever again in your lifetime - can't be sure but fibre seems to be here to stay for quite a while.

Gonzo

the biggest jumps for me were from dial-up to DSL and then from DSL to FTTH, proper fiber.

My original line could handle no more than 28.8k back in the day as I had a split line. The only way for me to get a better speed was to upgrade to ISDN which gave me 64k/128k but it was really expensive. The jump from that to 512k was revolutionary.

The following few years I had small but nice speed bumps from 512k to 2meg, then 3meg than 7 meg. Unfortunately that was the end of the road for me for a long time. I had to live with 7 meg internet for about 8 years. It was painful watching everyone else get faster and faster speeds.

Because of my locality, I missed out on the last big speed upgrade for most people which was DSL to FTTC and went straight to FTTH from single digit speed DSL. This jump from 8 meg to 300 meg in one go was massive and certainly a jump I probably never get to experience again. Sure I'll probably have faster speeds in the future but like cable customers, the speed improvements will barely be noticeable other than looking great on a speedtest.

In cable land things do seem to have slowed down alot. UPC/Virgin seemed to jump in speeds every 6 months from about 2009. In what seemed like no time at all, customers on cable were upgraded several times, starting off with 5meg and ending up with 120meg in a very short space of time. Now Virgin media has 240/360 options which probably don't feel like much of an upgrade over the 120 (except maybe the upload being much better). The rate of speed increases has certainly slowed down alot with cable/Virgin.

ED E

The amount of headroom for increases in copper has drastically decreased, but we don't have to use copper anymore.



ISPs spend big money to roll out very expensive hardware then sit on it to pay itself back. They will only go again when forced too. NTL used to be super contended 10Mb, Eircom were up to 24 in similar areas. Then NTL/UPC/VM did large works to move up standards and cable quality to start 18mo increase cycles (20,30,50,100,120,240,360) causing OpenEir pressure to expand with VDSL cabs (up to 100).

Now OE are off fighting for rural dwellers with GPON (currently with WISPs and MNOs) so they arent pushing VM but SIRO are in a number of towns. When SIRO get big enough to hit VMs budget VM will start pushing D3.1 and then we'll see 600-800Mb packages from them.


PS: No residential customer really needs more than 100-150Mb symmetric

shigllgetcha

I think the demand for faster speeds from customers has plateaued more than anything, 50-100mbs is plenty for most people. There isnt really much of a pay off for providers to provide anything faster when most customers wont be interested

Mad Mike

Thank you for all the replies.

One of the most interesting points made by a couple of commentators is that broadband speeds have plateaued ecause there isn't a demand from customers for faster speeds. I do get that. Even in the unlikely event of four people streaming 4k video all at the same time you probably won't exceed 100MBs. However such practical considerations rarely stifle the drive for bigger better faster in the commercial marketplace. There are plenty of people who proudly pay for 360Mbs broadband and then connect to it over crappy wifi that can only deliver 50Mbs on a very good day. I guess I am surprised that so many of Virgin's competitors are content to stop at 100Mbs. I guess it is a technical limitation but it means there is no competitive pressure for higher speeds.

ED E

Mad Mike wrote: »

I guess I am surprised that so many of Virgin's competitors are content to stop at 100Mbs. I guess it is a technical limitation but it means there is no competitive pressure for higher speeds.

Its a single competitor, OpenEir. It is technical, but its also just about to to change.

VDSL2: 70Mb
VDSL2 Vectored: 100Mb
VDSL2 Supervectored: ~130Mb

Milkman..

Are FTTC speeds likely.to increase in the near future?

I'm stuck on 40mbit,next problem is the 1TB caps which aren't adequate for fast broadband.

oscarBravo

Today's APQ file from open eir, coincidentally, contains supervectored profiles. The highest download speed I've seen has been 250Mb/s.

ED E

Milkman.. wrote: »

Are FTTC speeds likely.to increase in the near future?

I'm stuck on 40mbit,next problem is the 1TB caps which aren't adequate for fast broadband.

Thats exactly what we're talking about. Expect somewhere in the 10-35% range of a bump.

oscarBravo wrote: »

Today's APQ file from open eir, coincidentally, contains supervectored profiles. The highest download speed I've seen has been 250Mb/s.

Has the tech man been updated with the new profile codes?

oscarBravo

ED E wrote: »

Has the tech man been updated with the new profile codes?

Nope, still showing 100M max as of the April 18th update.

turbbo

Mad Mike wrote: »

One of the most interesting points made by a couple of commentators is that broadband speeds have plateaued ecause there isn't a demand from customers for faster speeds. I do get that.

I think you're missing the point. In Ireland the only reason that you're seeing a "plateau" is because of competition - if some other company decided to provide 1gb symmetric with a 500gb cap for €30 pm you would see increases in speeds and caps from cable based providers like virgin. These "plateaus" last a few months to a few years thats about it. Nothing stands still, especially in relation to technology.

Marlow

oscarBravo wrote: »

Nope, still showing 100M max as of the April 18th update.

Backend doesn't allow tests for higher than 100M either, yet. Interesting times non the less.

/M

Gonzo

turbbo wrote: »

I think you're missing the point. In Ireland the only reason that you're seeing a "plateau" is because of competition - if some other company decided to provide 1gb symmetric with a 500gb cap for €30 pm you would see increases in speeds and caps from cable based providers like virgin. These "plateaus" last a few months to a few years thats about it. Nothing stands still, especially in relation to technology.

not all the services are competing against each other yet anyway.

e.g.

Eir's FTTH is mostly rural and in areas where no other option other than crappy wireless is available. It is the obvious choice in areas where it is available, but not everyone can afford it.

Virgin mostly has FTTC to compete with and is currently out on its own in most areas with higher speeds. Virgin is totally cap free, surprised they don't mention this more.

Siro will become more of a threat once it is widespread enough to take on much of the urban landscape and could pose a serious threat to Virgin and Eir's FTTC network.

turbbo

Gonzo wrote: »

not all the services are competing against each other yet anyway.

No, only in a handful of locations in the country are there several options.
However 3g/4g(lte) was the kickstarter for a lot of areas to find themselves being upgraded. DSL was truly screwed and subscribers would have dropped off like flies had wired providers not started upgrading to provide a superior service.

I'm saying that customers aren't simply just satisfied with 150gb and feel they don't need any better - they would take better if it was offered to them at a cheaper price naturally.

Problem I see at this stage, is only the areas with the 3 infrastructural providers openeir, siro and virgin will see any improvements speed pricing and caps. There will be no incentive in areas only covered by one of the aforementioned.