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Referendum vote

  • 30-04-2018 8:39pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 2,177 ✭✭✭ cute geoge


    imo there is a bit of value with odds on the no vote in the up coming referendum .I think this vote could go either way so 50/50 yet the no vote is 5/2 on pp and probably higher else where!!


Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,584 ✭✭✭✭ Rjd2


    cute geoge wrote: »
    imo there is a bit of value with odds on the no vote in the up coming referendum .I think this vote could go either way so 50/50 yet the no vote is 5/2 on pp and probably higher else where!!


    I dunno. At the moment the polls are not that encouraging tbh for the no side.

    I know people talk about Brexit when it comes to shocks,but leave was doing well in the polls and had support from Tory heartlands, elderly people and plenty who would consider themselves leftwing (Corbyn barely endorsed leave and the most prominent leftist paper in the uk Morning star were leave). It also had a lot of press behind it.

    I don't really see how no wins at the moment.

    Could be wrong though.:pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Malaysia Whining Ballistics


    Can't really be compared to the Brexitious (complex and multi-faceted event), aside from the underdog odds match of 3.75.
    The event is probably closer aligned to the marriage referendum thingy, whereby the liberal standpoint won out.

    Thus, highly likely the 'Yes' folks will win out, and that offers little value 1.25 (1.29 max).

    Best advice is to avoid this market altogether. Instead this months 'politco-novelty' event is le Eurovision.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,294 ✭✭✭ thee glitz


    No is now 9/4 with PP, 11/4 to get 45%+ but still lose. The dutch on that is near 6/8. A 40-45% No vote is 9/4.

    1.5pts on the latter with 1.3pts on 11/4 would return 4.875 on any result No 40 - 50%. So adding a 2.075 pts No to-win bet (4.875 total bets) returns a total 6.7 if 50%+, or money back if 40%+ but loses.

    That's a 1.375 bet on No winning, money back if they get 40%.

    If a No vote on same sex marriage reached 37.9%, I expect it to go past 40% on this by some distance, quite possibly winning.

    Disclosure: will be voting No.


  • Registered Users Posts: 398 ✭✭ ibrahimovic


    Ireland is leftyville these days, would bang a huge bet on yes tbh.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Malaysia Whining Ballistics


    Ireland is leftyville these days, would bang a huge bet on yes tbh.

    Yes very leftyville, but it's always a big no to any bets at 1.25 (possibily max 1.33).

    Simply no value, and the risk v reward ratio (125% ROI vs Negative) simply not worth it.

    Friday night 25th might be bingo night for many of the golden generations, and their buses might well stop off for en masse no voting, on the way to/from the halls.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 243 ✭✭ Dingaan


    I see PP no longer have a market on their website for the referendum.

    I wonder if the market has tightened since the No sides alleged victory on Monday's debate.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,700 ✭✭✭✭ keane2097


    Dingaan wrote: »
    I see PP no longer have a market on their website for the referendum.

    I wonder if the market has tightened since the No sides alleged victory on Monday's debate.

    The market was up all week until sometime yesterday as far as I can tell. I think it was probably taken down in reaction to the Irish Times poll, which has shortened the Yes odds fairly considerably on Betfair, rather than the debate which didn't seem to move the dial much if at all.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Malaysia Whining Ballistics


    Slightly shorter, 1.2 or 1.25 max (available via lad/cor/bs). Too short to bother with, and nothing is a certainty.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,700 ✭✭✭✭ keane2097


    That's a shortening from 1.33 on Boyles as well.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Malaysia Whining Ballistics


    On a seperate (political market) note, Italy have been shortened down to 2.5 (bw) to leave the EU next, this is highly probable before 2025.
    Still @3 (on wh), was 3.75 pre-elections.
    Arrivederci.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 danganabu


    On a seperate (political market) note, Italy have been shortened down to 2.5 (bw) to leave the EU next, this is highly probable before 2025.
    Still @3 (on wh), was 3.75 pre-elections.
    Arrivederci.

    Far more likely that the UK come cap in hand looking to get back in before anyone else leaves.

    You are correct in that if anyone else was to leave, then the Italians are the fore runners as things stand but trust me when the reality of what the UK have done to themselves hits home there will be no one looking to leave, the reason that the EU have taking a strong line with the UK and not bowed to any of their fanciful proposals and dillusional demands is because Brussels is ensuring the future of the EU by making 100% sure that the UK is in a weaker position on Brexit day plus one than they were the day before, and lets be honest if you had to pick a dog in a fight would you pick Barnier + 27 governments or Theresa May??


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Malaysia Whining Ballistics


    danganabu wrote: »
    Far more likely that the UK come cap in hand looking to get back in before anyone else leaves.

    You are correct in that if anyone else was to leave, then the Italians are the fore runners as things stand but trust me when the reality of what the UK have done to themselves hits home there will be no one looking to leave, the reason that the EU have taking a strong line with the UK and not bowed to any of their fanciful proposals and dillusional demands is because Brussels is ensuring the future of the EU by making 100% sure that the UK is in a weaker position on Brexit day plus one than they were the day before, and lets be honest if you had to pick a dog in a fight would you pick Barnier + 27 governments or Theresa May??

    Markets suggest the force with Italexit is strong, priced @2.5 whereas Greece 4.5 (when previously the same, back in Jan). The new coalition asked the ECB to 'forgive' their €2(trn) debt. 10yr Bonds are up to 2.104%.

    And the Italians are now looking at 'exit procedures' to leave the monetary union and/or the EU. Plenty of other gripes include the EU's mis-management of the migrant crisis on their doorstep.

    For the local political markets, the 8thAR has gone flat at 1.2. Generous price of 4.5 with BS for those on the 'no' side. Likely a toss between 40-45% no @3.75 or a tad more for 45-50% nay sayers offers the best value.

    Yes Brexit will be a messy affair in it's early years, not least on the border region. But you only have to look at their gameplan of dropping corp tax, to see them on their way to tax-haven island status. Perhaps also deals with US/India/China/Can/Aus, all whilst trying to keep a small toe in the EU markets.

    In 2027 who's more attractive to investors: UKCorpTx of <12-15% sweetened with 4thIR innovation grants. Or Ire, that will be badgered into EU 'harmonisation' i.e. 22.5%c

    The UK's much bigger concern will be of Scotigo (32% of the uk's land entity). Once they leave, and leave they will (in the messy years post-brexit) - some sectors of the North will loose their fellow fleg wavers and drum beaters, to become evern more isolated, and easy prey. Interesting times ahead!


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,468 ✭✭✭ zimmermania


    Ireland is leftyville these days, would bang a huge bet on yes tbh.

    You could not be more wrong,the right ,i.e Leo and Martin for some strange reason have become more radical than the "Left" on social issues and the YES side will win despite the fact that most FG and FF tds oppose whats being proposed.By the way i am happy to vote yes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,384 ✭✭✭✭ retalivity


    Saw the 60-70% yes odds at 3/1 on thurs morn, thought it was great value, never took it. Raging now after the exit polls


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 28,856 Mod ✭✭✭✭ ShamoBuc


    A few posts deleted

    Plenty of other threads out there to discuss the issue rather than the odds.


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