Diesel no longer the darling, would you buy a large saloon?

hairypigeon

So with diesel on the way out and the UK starting to disincentivise diesels and company cars

Would you still buy a decent high capacity diesel german saloon for say 20k or will they depreciate like a stone over the next few years and become unsellable?

I'm interested in something with a high spec like a gen 1 sline A5, A7 Tdi, a BMW 3 or 5 series msport or what have you.

grogi

hairypigeon wrote: »

So with diesel on the way out and the UK starting to disincentivise diesels and company cars

Incentives/disincentives apply to new cars. There will be much less new diesels, and in the short term the supply of them in the second hand market will be limited.

hairypigeon wrote: »

Would you still buy a decent high capacity diesel german saloon for say 20k or will they depreciate like a stone over the next few years and become unsellable?

I'm interested in something with a high spec like a gen 1 sline A5, A7 Tdi, a BMW 3 or 5 series msport or what have you.

Because of the above, well speced and maintained diesel will be actually more desirable than they are now.

Widdensushi

If some of the larger cities in the UK start to penalise people with diesel cars there could be alot of the type of car you are describing come on the market in a short space of time. I would mainly agree with grogi that long term there will be a good market for those cars with less new ones being sold from now on. It depends on how long you plan on keeping the car and on how the government decides they will penalise the owners of diesel cars going forward.

hairypigeon

OK i can see your point re: well minded ones but I live in the city and am worried about the lack of demand in say 4 years for these cars

one of the other interesting options is a Lexus, vw golf/Passat GTE both have accelerated capital allowances making it really tax efficient.

bazz26

It's funny how the world works.

For the last number of years diesels were grand and acceptable. Now diesel is a dirty word and they are the scourge of mankind with threads like these popping up on forums replacing the old threads of "I don't really do enough driving for a diesel but they are cheaper to run".

I guess if you plant a seed in people's heads, just watch it grow and generate into more mass consumerism that will drive economies. All in the name of saving mankind and the earth. I wonder what's the next big ticket after this? Wireless signals that are found to damage human tissue? Sure we need to replace that with something else. The cycle continues, its just wash, rinse and repeat.

grogi

bazz26 wrote: »

It's funny how the world works.

For the last number of years diesels were grand and acceptable. Now diesel is a dirty word and they are the scourge of mankind with threads like these popping up on forums replacing the old threads of "I don't really do enough driving for a diesel but they are cheaper to run".

I guess if you plant a seed in people's heads, just watch it grow and generate into more mass consumerism that will drive economies. All in the name of saving mankind and the earth. I wonder what's the next big ticket after this? Wireless signals that are found to damage human tissue? Sure we need to replace that with something else. The cycle continues, its just wash, rinse and repeat.

It is always a pleasure to read your posts @Bazz26, I really mean it.

Alanstrainor

bazz26 wrote: »

I wonder what's the next big ticket after this?

Petrol will be the next big ticket. It has already begun.

But as for your options OP, it depends on your needs. If a diesel would suit your driving, ie relatively large mileage and longer trips, then I would say it would be a fine way to go. It also depends on how long you think you'll keep the car.

finbarrk

Diesel will be around for a long time. I'll be buying them anyway.

Doctors room ghost

And if diesel is such a dirty word what are the brains in the know planning on doing with commercial vehicles around the world.all manner of trucks,buses,tractors,mining equipment etc etc.
The world depends on deliveries. If anything they should be making it easier for deliveries and transport companies.Absolute madness if you ask me that trucks and buses are forced to burn road diesel at 1.30 odd per litre bulk when emissions are the exact same on green diesel.
And any lad saying green diesel is smoky needs another layer applied to his tin foil hat.its the exact same only with a dye added for detection by customs.it all burns the same.
They should be allowed burn green in commercial and let lads make a decent wage and pass savings to the customer

cantdecide

For the lower end of the market, I want to see the purchase price match petrols before I'd give them serious consideration.

All of these epiphanies and revolutionary criticism is just about shortening the life cycle of cars, IMO.

Indricotherium

bazz26 wrote: »

It's funny how the world works.

For the last number of years diesels were grand and acceptable. Now diesel is a dirty word and they are the scourge of mankind with threads like these popping up on forums replacing the old threads of "I don't really do enough driving for a diesel but they are cheaper to run".

You're assuming people just land on the assumption that diesel is good by themselves.

From lobbying the EU and individual governments to funding motoring press and the likes of topgear, to launder diesels image, car and fuel producers drive this.

It's in the interest of car manufacturers to have the arse fall out of the second hand market cyclically.

Rowley Birkin QC

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

And if diesel is such a dirty word what are the brains in the know planning on doing with commercial vehicles around the world.

drunkmonkey

I was just doing the figures on a 335d X-Drive Msport, nearly a 20k saving over a 2016 Irish one after VRT is paid. I'd absolutely import the most powerful biggest engine vrt friendly diesel I could. There's a perfect storm brewing in the UK with brexit it's going to be bargain time for Irish motorists if there's a drop in sterling which will happen the closer we get to next year.

It's not going to depreciate like a stone when your saving 20k upfront and there's very little in the country to choose from.

EV/PHEV will depreciate like a stone with an even bigger stone wrapped in led attached to it when Mazda bring out their SkyActiv-X petrol cars next year.

bazz26

bazz26 wrote: »

Now diesel is a dirty word and they are the scourge of mankind with threads like these popping up on forums replacing the old threads of "I don't really do enough driving for a diesel but they are cheaper to run".

Coming from a petrol only house I am loving this :D
even the people in work that cant change a wheel are talking about the scourge that is diesel!
most of them have them and laugh at muggins here paying 710e a year!

Casati

If buying a used diesel I’d try to separate out the older Euro 4 and Euro 5 cars as these are the ones targeted by cities bans. Id be confident in buying Euro 6 diesels now

Lord Nikon

I’m currently driving a car I thought I’d never own(10 year old 530d MSport), that were €85k new, now they are for sale for less than a tenth of the price. Because the MPG is better than the 530 petrol, I wouldn’t drive the petrol, and now that diesel is a dirty word, probably no one would want to touch it but it suits me for high mileage.
A lot more of these equivalent cars are going to be on the road, large engine diesels, and looking at some car manufacturers now, they are still selling them. So 10 years from now you would have 2018 model big engined Audis/BMWs/Mercedes which are predominantly diesel at prices which I can afford. While others will be running out buying brand new sub 2 litre engined petrols/EVs/Hybrids.
Diesel will still be for sale for commercial vehicles , and probably cheaper per litre, so we would still be able to run diesel cars.

Widdensushi

One of the big things is that there will be little investment in diesel technology. Volvo for example will be continuing to sell diesel cars but the engines will be staying the same for the foreseeable. Surely that will help to slow down the depreciation as there will be less incentive to buy new.

Casati

Widdensushi wrote: »

One of the big things is that there will be little investment in diesel technology. Volvo for example will be continuing to sell diesel cars but the engines will be staying the same for the foreseeable. Surely that will help to slow down the depreciation as there will be less incentive to buy new.

Certain brands won’t be investing in diesel, but it’s not true to say overall that this will be the case. I’m waiting for more plug in diesels similar to the V60 to be announced

tabby aspreme

A big diesel could be a great investment , as when they stop making them in a few years time they will become collectors items and increase in value.ðŸ˜

Ubbquittious

The diesel hate will subside to some extent when the kneejerk effect wears off. Some other form of pollution will become flavour of the month, new diesels will be a bit cleaner and people will forget about the VW emissions thing

demanufactured

Diesels will still be popular for those of us with long daily commutes.

Californeeway

Diesel and petrol engine comparisons for the same new Audi A3:

Petrol
1.5 TFSI
Fuel consumption 5,1 l/100 km
CO2 emission 117–115 g/km

Diesel
1.6 TDI
Fuel consumption 4,1 l/100 km
CO2 emission 108–107 g/km

Cant quite understand how there's not a bigger deal being made now that diesel have lower emissions from a Petrol of the same (or similar) sized engine and also better mileage?

Heres Johnny

Californeeway wrote: »

Diesel and petrol engine comparisons for the same new Audi A3:

Petrol
1.5 TFSI
Fuel consumption 5,1 l/100 km
CO2 emission 117–115 g/km

Diesel
1.6 TDI
Fuel consumption 4,1 l/100 km
CO2 emission 108–107 g/km

Cant quite understand how there's not a bigger deal being made now that diesel have lower emissions from a Petrol of the same (or similar) sized engine and also better mileage?

Diesel always had a lower co2 that's why the VRT and motor tax was lower and everyone bought them. Because less co2 is better for the planet and trees and ozone layer and global warming etc....
What wasn't taken into account was the higher level n0x from diesels or whatever it's called. This is more harmful to humans, which is why diesels are slowly being kept out of cities, where a large number of humans are.

Californeeway

Heres Johnny wrote: »

Diesel always had a lower co2 that's why the VRT and motor tax was lower and everyone bought them. Because less co2 is better for the planet and trees and ozone layer and global warming etc....
What wasn't taken into account was the higher level n0x from diesels or whatever it's called. This is more harmful to humans, which is why diesels are slowly being kept out of cities, where a large number of humans are.

Aha, thanks for that!

Cantona's Collars

One problem on the horizon for electric cars is Cobalt, it's getting massively expensive. It's used in every lithium Ion battery on the planet and cars require a lot of it.

Continental are working on next gen DPF technology which is more effective and will vastly reduce all the nastiness coming out of diesels.
I swapped my diesel before Christmas for another diesel,too much scaremongering around and at least looking around my town virtually every car is a diesel,they won't be going away anytime soon.

Heres Johnny

Californeeway wrote: »

Aha, thanks for that!

It's seen by many as a huge oversight on behalf of politicians. Whereas diesel was up to 2008 the motorway high mileage sales reps choice and your average person tipping around towns bought petrol, the tax regime in the Fianna Fail/Green Party government incentivised diesels for everybody.
Out of maybe 10 of my closest friends, I'm the only one that has a petrol car and they think I'm nuts for having it due to the mpg.
But my man maths reliably informs me my overall motoring costs are much lower than theirs.

grogi

Heres Johnny wrote: »

Diesel always had a lower co2 that's why the VRT and motor tax was lower and everyone bought them. Because less co2 is better for the planet and trees and ozone layer and global warming etc....

I'd suggest having your facts straight before stating things like that.

Trees prefer more CO₂. Ozone layer/ozone hole has also nothing to do with CO₂ emission either. The only thing caused by excessive CO₂ emission is climate change (the term global warming is technically correct, but some parts of the world will get colder so it is not used so often anymore).

Heres Johnny wrote: »

What wasn't taken into account was the higher level n0x from diesels or whatever it's called. This is more harmful to humans, which is why diesels are slowly being kept out of cities, where a large number of humans are.

What is n0x?! Do you mean NOₓ?!

Emission of NOₓ is very easily battled by adding some urea into the exhaust fumes - as a result of reduction we get nitrogen, water and CO₂. Nothing harmful in local scale. And it is an extremely simple system.

Do you know that NOₓ are a product of petrol combustion too?! That's why cities like Los Angeles, with hardly any diesel cars, used to be covered by clouds of smog.

80sDiesel

I would jump for the 6 series Gran Coupe 3litre twin turbo.

jimmycrackcorm

bazz26 wrote:

I guess if you plant a seed in people's heads, just watch it grow and generate into more mass consumerism that will drive economies. All in the name of saving mankind and the earth. I wonder what's the next big ticket after this? Wireless signals that are found to damage human tissue? Sure we need to replace that with something else. The cycle continues, its just wash, rinse and repeat.

There are two significant factors in recent years that are driving this change. The Volkswagen scandal has brought to the fore of attention just how bad an effect that diesel emissions have on people. The fact that a manufacturer tried to hide it has really made people rethink about them.

The second is Tesla drive to mass marketing of electric vehicles that is promising a path forward from vehicles that spew close-by emissions. Hence every manufacturer is now jumping on the same bandwagon.

Otherwise we'd just be looking at the equivalent of the prior removal of lead from petrol. It seems strange now that pumps display unleaded when it's nigh on impossible to get leaded petrol.

galwaytt

We've been here before: Petrol = Evil, Diesel=Low CO2 saviour. Now it's Diesel=Evil, Petrol (+Hybrid) = Saviour.

Either way, petrol ain't going away yet, or at least ICE isn't.


Diesel will be considered spotless when the nastiness about the mining of material for batteries and the crackpot regimes controlling it comes into focus.

At least with oil there is a myriad of suppliers: with raw materials for batteries there's S.F.A. And when they pull an OPEC on it it'll be even worse.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kids-cobalt-cbsnews-investigation-bobby-ghosh-mining-alternative-congo/

drunkmonkey

Tax change in the UK would have made a difference on 40k + car registrations. BMW we’re triying to shift a lot in a hurry before they kicked in hence a lot of cheap 3.0l https://www.google.ie/amp/www.independent.co.uk/life-style/motoring/what-you-need-to-know-about-car-tax-changes-in-2017-a7879701.html%3famp

FUBO

DIESEL all day long and FUXK the UK and there rules

Belfast

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

One problem on the horizon for electric cars is Cobalt, it's getting massively expensive. It's used in every lithium Ion battery on the planet and cars require a lot of it.

Continental are working on next gen DPF technology which is more effective and will vastly reduce all the nastiness coming out of diesels.
I swapped my diesel before Christmas for another diesel,too much scaremongering around and at least looking around my town virtually every car is a diesel,they won't be going away anytime soon.

There could be big changes in battery technology coming.

Carbon nanotubes in Li-ion batteries
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921510716300873

Once-Hot Material Graphene Could Be Next Battery Breakthrough
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-10/once-hot-material-graphene-could-be-next-battery-breakthrough


The other problem with EVs and renewables energy is transmission loss from the remote sites that wind farms are located in. superconducting power lines should help with this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SuperGrid


one of the problem with the use of diesel is the refining process of oil.

Fuel from Crude

The primary uses of crude oil to this point have been in the production of fuel. A single barrel of crude oil can produces the following components, which are listed by percent of the barrel they constitute.

42% Gasoline
22% Diesel
9% Jet Fuel
5% Fuel Oil
4% Liquefied Petroleum Gases
18% Other products
http://www.petroleum.co.uk/refining

The question is what to do with the petrol that is still being produce by the oil refining process once people move in large numbers to EVs.
Petrol was before the internal combustion a waste product produced by refined oil for Paraffin/Kerosene.

cng is possible stop gap while waiting for battery tech to improve.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compressed_natural_gas

https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/natural_gas_basics.html

Shefwedfan

hairypigeon wrote: »

So with diesel on the way out and the UK starting to disincentivise diesels and company cars

Would you still buy a decent high capacity diesel german saloon for say 20k or will they depreciate like a stone over the next few years and become unsellable?

I'm interested in something with a high spec like a gen 1 sline A5, A7 Tdi, a BMW 3 or 5 series msport or what have you.

It will drop like a stone....

Based on recent articles the price of diesel per ltr will increase in this election and the next and the next....it will bring it in line with the excess on petrol. Currently petrol is at 58.7 and 4.6 carbon, diesel is at 47.9 and 5.3. So expect 10 cent over the coming year


See how much a diesel car will drop if they stick 5 cent per ltr on it at next election....



It will still make sense for the few people in Ireland that do very high mileage on motorway.

Twenty Grand

Considering the huge amount of Diesel imports for the UK the prices are already dropping.

Lord Nikon

I wouldn't mind paying an extra 10c-15c a litre for diesel, if i was getting the vehicle cheap. Sure motorists are paying 20c more for a litre of petrol, which is less economic than a diesel. I'll hardly go bankrupt.

Shefwedfan

Lord Nikon wrote: »

I wouldn't mind paying an extra 10c-15c a litre for diesel, if i was getting the vehicle cheap. Sure motorists are paying 20c more for a litre of petrol, which is less economic than a diesel. I'll hardly go bankrupt.

Everything depends on your driving.


It is not the total km per year but actually how you do it. This will make the decision on which fuel is best and most econimical.


Like people say 15k km's per year is diesel. Not if you are constantly doing 30-40km trips and no long distance driving or very little.



In the same sentenace you could do 5k km's per year but those 5k are all 100km+ trips. So this time it makese sense to buy diesel.

Lord Nikon

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Everything depends on your driving.


It is not the total km per year but actually how you do it. This will make the decision on which fuel is best and most econimical.


Like people say 15k km's per year is diesel. Not if you are constantly doing 30-40km trips and no long distance driving or very little.



In the same sentenace you could do 5k km's per year but those 5k are all 100km+ trips. So this time it makese sense to buy diesel.

I do mostly motorway miles, 30k + miles a year.

Shefwedfan

Lord Nikon wrote: »

I do mostly motorway miles, 30k + miles a year.

I travel a motorway every day....I still only drive 30km to work.....its the distance not the road



With 30km+ I guess they are doing long distance motorway driving?

grogi

Shefwedfan wrote: »

I travel a motorway every day....I still only drive 30km to work.....its the distance not the road



With 30km+ I guess they are doing long distance motorway driving?

30k miles = 50,000.00 km year year. That is diesel territory, even if you are doing those miles in town only.

DaveyDave

Californeeway wrote: »

Diesel and petrol engine comparisons for the same new Audi A3:

Petrol
1.5 TFSI
Fuel consumption 5,1 l/100 km
CO2 emission 117–115 g/km

Diesel
1.6 TDI
Fuel consumption 4,1 l/100 km
CO2 emission 108–107 g/km

Cant quite understand how there's not a bigger deal being made now that diesel have lower emissions from a Petrol of the same (or similar) sized engine and also better mileage?

Is that a fair comparison? The 1.5 TFSI is more powerful. The 1.0 TFSI has the same power as the 1.6 TDI and has lower emissions. It's also quicker, lighter and anyone driving short distances would probably get better economy in the petrol.

I believe the engines work differently so may not be fair to compare physical size?

Trasna1

Shefwedfan wrote: »

It will drop like a stone....

Based on recent articles the price of diesel per ltr will increase in this election and the next and the next....it will bring it in line with the excess on petrol. Currently petrol is at 58.7 and 4.6 carbon, diesel is at 47.9 and 5.3. So expect 10 cent over the coming year


See how much a diesel car will drop if they stick 5 cent per ltr on it at next election....



It will still make sense for the few people in Ireland that do very high mileage on motorway.

There is no way, no way that any political party that fancies getting elected will load 10c/l on diesel eat the next budget. Not with an election around the corner.

Shefwedfan

Trasna1 wrote: »

There is no way, no way that any political party that fancies getting elected will load 10c/l on diesel eat the next budget. Not with an election around the corner.

I didn't say 10c/l in next budget

Trasna1

Shefwedfan wrote: »

I didn't say 10c/l in next budget

Over the coming year is the next budget. It would take three budget cycles to close that gap.

Ubbquittious

Belfast wrote: »

There could be big changes in battery technology coming.

Carbon nanotubes in Li-ion batteries
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921510716300873

Once-Hot Material Graphene Could Be Next Battery Breakthrough
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-10/once-hot-material-graphene-could-be-next-battery-breakthrough


The other problem with EVs and renewables energy is transmission loss from the remote sites that wind farms are located in. superconducting power lines should help with this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SuperGrid


one of the problem with the use of diesel is the refining process of oil.



The question is what to do with the petrol that is still being produce by the oil refining process once people move in large numbers to EVs.
Petrol was before the internal combustion a waste product produced by refined oil for Paraffin/Kerosene.

cng is possible stop gap while waiting for battery tech to improve.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compressed_natural_gas

https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/natural_gas_basics.html

Loads of that newly invented stuff never becomes a product you can actually buy

Shefwedfan

Trasna1 wrote: »

Over the coming year is the next budget. It would take three budget cycles to close that gap.

Years....it was a typo.....


I think it's clear from the post I never would suggest 10c/ltr in this budget


I even make reference to 5c in next line....

Casati

Shefwedfan wrote: »

I travel a motorway every day....I still only drive 30km to work.....its the distance not the road



With 30km+ I guess they are doing long distance motorway driving?

30km on a motorway will be more economical in a diesel versus a petrol version of the same car/ similar power. The OP wants a large exec car for 20k ish so that rules out all EV’s and that leave diesel as the best option

Shefwedfan

Casati wrote: »

30km on a motorway will be more economical in a diesel versus a petrol version of the same car/ similar power. The OP wants a large exec car for 20k ish so that rules out all EV’s and that leave diesel as the best option

I didn't recommend a BEV, did I? I didn't mention it at all?



30km on the M50 in a diesel is not more economical if you are traveling at peak hours

The question is diesel v petrol from what I can gather.


Large exec cars like the Merc hybrid etc would be perfect option if petrol is perferred but you want a high MPG....

Casati

Shefwedfan wrote: »

I didn't recommend a BEV, did I? I didn't mention it at all?



30km on the M50 in a diesel is not more economical if you are traveling at peak hours

The question is diesel v petrol from what I can gather.


Large exec cars like the Merc hybrid etc would be perfect option if petrol is perferred but you want a high MPG....

I didn’t say you mentioned EV’s but other posters did, and EV’s are getting mentioned as an alternative to diesel and petrol, so is it okay with you if I comment on them, or would you like if I run it by you first??

Sorry I still maintain that driving motorway at peak hours for 30km is more economical in a diesel than a similar petrol, but the fact is that for the OP buying another diesel would be a good move if he wants a large car like those mentioned.

Buying a Lexus GS is an option if doing a lot of city driving but they are not popular.

Doing 50k pa diesel is the only option in that class of car and the op should be happy buying one that has already suffered big depreciation

Shefwedfan

Casati wrote: »

I didn’t say you mentioned EV’s but other posters did, and EV’s are getting mentioned as an alternative to diesel and petrol, so is it okay with you if I comment on them, or would you like if I run it by you first??

Comment away, but why are you quoting me?

Casati wrote: »

Sorry I still maintain that driving motorway at peak hours for 30km is more economical in a diesel than a similar petrol, but the fact is that for the OP buying another diesel would be a good move if he wants a large car like those mentioned.

Buying a Lexus GS is an option if doing a lot of city driving but they are not popular.

Doing 50k pa diesel is the only option in that class of car and the op should be happy buying one that has already suffered big depreciation

The OP never mentioned anything about 50k.

Mooooo

hairypigeon wrote: »

So with diesel on the way out and the UK starting to disincentivise diesels and company cars

Would you still buy a decent high capacity diesel german saloon for say 20k or will they depreciate like a stone over the next few years and become unsellable?

I'm interested in something with a high spec like a gen 1 sline A5, A7 Tdi, a BMW 3 or 5 series msport or what have you.

Tbh it would depend on how long you keep the cars for. The cars you mention in this posts at the budget mentioned will be heading for 4 or 5 years old so by the time you move them on again they will have depreciated a fair bit anyway regardless of what is under the bonnet.