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Aryzta

  • 29-01-2018 2:15pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 657 Shauny2010


    A big food company that looks in serious trouble. Share price €0.23
    Currently purging money as it looks to offload assets to balance the books.
    The core business looks sound but then again it just a big bakery, and where would growth come from?
    With a third of its value (€803 million) wiped off its market cap last week its drops like this that grab investors attention to see if maybe its oversold.
    The question now is how low can this go, and can they turn it around?


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,635 ✭✭✭ littlevillage


    Have been watching the share price fall.

    Already own a few shares in Aryzta and was thinking of grabbing a few more. The fall has been catastrophic though and has left me spooked until it at least shows signs of bottoming out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,635 ✭✭✭ littlevillage


    I think Aryzta might just be at the bottom today.... seems to be a bit of resistence to the Share price going too far below €21.90


  • Registered Users Posts: 30 ✭✭✭ s3ndnudes


    Not sure if it's at the bottom and if there's actually any long term value in this stock. I know the recent price cliff dive is at least partly driven by the downgrades by analysts but I wonder does the current price capture the magnitude of:

    EBITDA is likely to be down by 15% for their FY17 results
    They seem to have proposed a strategy of disposal of non core business assets and companies but i've not yet read anything of significance on how they intend to create growth nor their strategy going forward that would leave me to believe they can create value for shareholders. Maybe the annual report might do a better job but i'm not sure how their going to turn around their core business....


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 657 Shauny2010


    I don`t see this as the bottom either. The debt is huge and acting as a millstone around the neck of the company.
    Nothing worse than to be a distressed seller.
    I`ll wait and see, but to me at 21.56 this looks expensive. I think this would only be worth a punt at half that price and even then their would have to be a restructure of the business


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,635 ✭✭✭ littlevillage


    Aryzta up 5% today to €22.30 looks like yesterday was indeed the bottom (for now at least)

    On Friday 26th during the recent sell off,

    Investec Stockbrokers reckoned fair value is €22.50

    Goodbody Stockbrokers reckon its €26

    Remember, it was up around €34-€35 less than a month ago.

    Soo who knows where we are heading from here 🀔


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  • Registered Users Posts: 30 ✭✭✭ s3ndnudes


    Ye I agree- definitely going to be a bit of a bumpy ride I reckon. I see there is some more volatility again. From looking at my degiro it looks back down to € 21.98 or E-0.52 and -2.31%. While the sale of Aryzta's Cloverhill is likely to be a positive (i.e disposing of non-core assets) Ive seen some reports saying the proceeds is likely to be a lot less than anticipated (possible less than E100m) so maybe speculation around the value that will be realized on the sale of assets is being built into the price. I have never bought Aryzta shares but I'm very very tempted to see how this week plays out and if there's further decreases (maybe another 5% or so- I think ill buy!). I reckon there is another coupple of % to fall but maybe the bottom really is in site.


  • Registered Users Posts: 30 ✭✭✭ s3ndnudes


    Aryzta up 5% today to €22.30 looks like yesterday was indeed the bottom (for now at least)”

    Looks like we have a new bottom...for now at least :/


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,635 ✭✭✭ littlevillage


    one day, one of us will be right ;-)


  • Registered Users Posts: 30 ✭✭✭ s3ndnudes


    What are your thoughts on the stock at the current price of E20.56? Worth a punt or hold off to see what the annual report brings?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,635 ✭✭✭ littlevillage


    I'll probably be hounded out of town for suggesting this ...but is it time to start looking for value in Aryzta ?

    (I'm down a good solid 30% on my previous investments over the Christmas/New Year, which I am still holding) .... but ever the optimism.

    UBS investment trust has recently (22 Mar) purchased 6% of Aryzta. UBS is Swiss as is most of Aryzta ...do they know something, we don't?....for example is there a big annoucement on non core asset disposal imminent ?

    Was in the market myself this morning trying to pick up some at €17 ...failed, because the price bounced quickly to €17.40... soo might just be life is this old feckin dog of a share yet ??


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,635 ✭✭✭ littlevillage


    Aryzta at €19 today. Nice little 10-11% profit for anybody who took my advice 3 weeks ago...when they were €17.

    How high are they going to go??.....back to €30 hopefully (so I can re-coup my losses from last year) :-) but thats unlikely.


  • Registered Users Posts: 30 ✭✭✭ s3ndnudes


    Nice profit if you managed to sell quick enough ! Took a big hit today...not sure why- my google alerts on them didn't show up anything.

    Don't think im brave enough for them- at the last profit warning I held off and went for Playtech. Was showing great returns for a while but the regulation and cap on Fixed betting in the UK seems to be hitting them a bit. Still in the green for now...Also thinking of going into William Hill now after the discount they're trading at now.

    Not sure i'm brave enough for Aryzta...finding it hard to put a valuation on them and what price i'm comfortable going in at....


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,635 ✭✭✭ littlevillage


    With Arytza, I am still looking at a substantial loss overall, because of previous buys which were at too high prices.... but recently I just timed that buy+sell, perfectly :-)


    If you are using Degiro, the share price information coming from the ISEQ is not always reliable and probably not real time either.....soo if you have alerts set up, they may not work as expected. I always double check elsewhere before placing buy/sell orders etc.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 657 Shauny2010


    More miserable news from the management. Share price slumps to 15c now.
    EBITDA to be 9-12% lower than prior EBITDA guidance, for such a large etablished company, missing those targets show lack of management.
    Falling revenue, rising costs from wages and raw materials they need to get a grip fairly lively now


  • Registered Users Posts: 838 ✭✭✭ lucky john


    The 5 year chart makes interesting viewing. One hell of a falling knife.
    Has to be a target for a take over or even some vulture fund though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 695 ✭✭✭ Viscount Aggro


    A falling chainsaw.

    We used to called this stock in the trade "oneofftheawrist-a"


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭ Benildus


    I was advised 5/6 years ago to invest heavily into this company as they were going to make serious headway in the US on the basis of their acquisitions there. I've no idea why I ignored that advice but i'm glad i did.

    It needs a significant shakeup and I have doubts that Gary McCann can do it


  • Registered Users Posts: 30 ✭✭✭ s3ndnudes


    Anyone think now is a good entry point? I am tempted to buy with a good Price to Sales Ratio of 0.67- research from zack's investment shows on average that stocks with a Price to sales ratio of 1 tend to greatly outperform the market- but i'd imagine that ratio only holds through if sales don't keep falling, which they have been somewhat in Aryzta.

    I'm tempted to buy now as I bought Greencore and Playtech after profit warnings and sold recently for a pretty good return and even a dividend from Playtech. One major thing that is putting me off is that unlike Greencore and Playtech where I love there products, I don't really like Aryzta's products in Ireland anyway. Cuisine de France and Otis Spunkmeyer as sold in Irish convenience stores seem to be always the stuff left behind! For the price they sell them for i'd rather get something more "fresh"- the bakery sections in Aldi and Lidl seem to me to be better quality or else one further step-up and go for some other independent bakery. Correct me if i'm wrong, maybe the Aldi and Lidl fresh bakeries are actually bakes from frozen Aryzta products!

    Decision: possibly open a small position on it next week with medium term holding planned.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 58,831 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    Bought some at €12.80 this morning. I've told people not to buy this for years, but surely at this price nothing can go wrong? :pac:

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 657 Shauny2010


    unkel wrote: »
    Bought some at €12.80 this morning. I've told people not to buy this for years, but surely at this price nothing can go wrong? :pac:

    Has something changed or are you buying hoping for a rebound?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 372 ✭✭ Skelet0n


    s3ndnudes wrote: »
    Anyone think now is a good entry point? I am tempted to buy with a good Price to Sales Ratio of 0.67- research from zack's investment shows on average that stocks with a Price to sales ratio of 1 tend to greatly outperform the market- but i'd imagine that ratio only holds through if sales don't keep falling, which they have been somewhat in Aryzta.

    I'm tempted to buy now as I bought Greencore and Playtech after profit warnings and sold recently for a pretty good return and even a dividend from Playtech. One major thing that is putting me off is that unlike Greencore and Playtech where I love there products, I don't really like Aryzta's products in Ireland anyway. Cuisine de France and Otis Spunkmeyer as sold in Irish convenience stores seem to be always the stuff left behind! For the price they sell them for i'd rather get something more "fresh"- the bakery sections in Aldi and Lidl seem to me to be better quality or else one further step-up and go for some other independent bakery. Correct me if i'm wrong, maybe the Aldi and Lidl fresh bakeries are actually bakes from frozen Aryzta products!

    Decision: possibly open a small position on it next week with medium term holding planned.

    Looks more like a value trap than a good buy to me, chart hasn't given much indication of an impending recovery.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 6,769 Mod ✭✭✭✭ nuac


    Covered in SUnday Business Post this weekend.
    Pessimistic


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 58,831 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    That article took most of my considerable gain away :p

    Read the article when you mentioned it, doesn't give much hope for improvements. Stock price hasn't moved much since the drop the day after the article. Sold today at 13.09 for a modest profit.

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 657 Shauny2010


    Down Below €9 now. I had estimated that €8.60 would be a good entry point. But every day theirs some new bad news. The latest is they may be doing a cash call to the market. Doing one now after issuing more debt to pay dividend just shows the madness going on here. Just reading employee reviews about Aryzta tells enough about them.
    I'm expecting further drops in the SP, if they don't get the act together soon this one could fail completely.


  • Registered Users Posts: 838 ✭✭✭ lucky john


    I can see no light at the end of this tunnel yet. They need to get a floor under the company somewhere.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 657 Shauny2010


    No,no light yet but I have this on the radar as we soon are approaching a point where the breakup value of the company far exceeds the market cap. Either way I'm on the fence for now


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,635 ✭✭✭ littlevillage


    €7.70 today

    Anyone have an idea of what the break-up value would be? I read somewhere (can't remember where) that the NAV (Net asset value) is about €18 per share.

    If that's true then clearly a vulture fund etc. would be interested in snapping up the company now ....? But at what premium ????

    I have been investing bit by bit as the SP fell over the last 10 months or so, in the hope that the turnaround is in sight....or that they get bought out at some kind of a premium.

    As you can imagine, I'm nursing some heavy paper losses now..... :-(


  • Registered Users Posts: 3 michael garde


    I have 500 aryzta shares from the old iaws days,like many others i should have sold them a long time ago.
    Based on todays agm, am i obliged to buy the new shares at 2.00 swiss francs each,assuming i had to buy the 10 new shares for 1 old share this would cost me 10,000 swiss/fr,can i buy a smaller amount of new shares.

    How would it affect me if i did not buy any of the new shares


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  • Registered Users Posts: 31 TaxPro


    I have 500 aryzta shares from the old iaws days,like many others i should have sold them a long time ago.
    Based on todays agm, am i obliged to buy the new shares at 2.00 swiss francs each,assuming i had to buy the 10 new shares for 1 old share this would cost me 10,000 swiss/fr,can i buy a smaller amount of new shares.

    How would it affect me if i did not buy any of the new shares

    I'm also an owner of ARYZTA shares and want to understand what my options are now. Am I correct in saying it's one of three options in order not to lose 90% of the value of my current holding?

    1. Exercise the rights
    2. Sell the shares (before they become ex-rights)
    3. Sell the rights but keep the original shares?

    It's that last one I'm not so sure about - is that an option? Can you sell a right?


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