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Risk of snow tonight (29th/30th) - Ulster, Leinster, Connaught

  • 29-12-2017 10:18am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 21,811 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Euro4

    17123000_2_2900.gif

    iconeu_uk1-1-19-0.png?29-09

    From the center of the country northward is at risk of some heavyish snowfall, mostly due to evaporative cooling, as heavy rain moves northeastward for a few hours tonight. The rain will turn to snow and could fall as snow throughout for many in the northern half of the country.

    For a time eastern coastal counties have an on shore breeze so, likely, rain and sleet here.

    2 - 4 cms, more locally.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 21,811 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Upgraded title to yellow warning, 2 - 4 cms inland, more locally (counties north of a line Dublin - Galway). Elsewhere likely to be transient - rain, snow, rain. Munster, far South Leinster looks not effected.

    hirlamuk-1-17-0.png?29-10


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    Hirlam is going for it- that is a wedge of snow not to far north of the Estuary ;)

    Very much intensity dependent--- places like Monaghan could get slammed but should be a temporary affair with mild temperatures soon sweeping north by morning....

    hirlamuk-0-25-0.png?29-10


    hirlamuk-1-18-0.png?29-10


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,002 ✭✭✭ mattser


    I'm sure the residents of Erie, Pennsylvania would love this thread.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,201 ✭✭✭ jamesbondings


    Off to Galway for a few days tomorrow morning. Remote location outside oran more. I can't read these charts. Should we expect snow bad road conditions? I would be tempted to leave today so we can prepare if so.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,811 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Hirlam is going for it- that is a wedge of snow not to far north of the Estuary ;)

    Very much intensity dependent--- places like Monaghan could get slammed but should be a temporary affair with mild temperatures soon sweeping north by morning....

    hirlamuk-0-25-0.png?29-10


    hirlamuk-1-18-0.png?29-10

    I'll eat my hat if anything remotely that intense actually occurs:pac:

    Gone by morning though as you say.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,811 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Off to Galway for a few days tomorrow morning. Remote location outside oran more. I can't read these charts. Should we expect snow bad road conditions? I would be tempted to leave today so we can prepare if so.

    It'll be fine.


  • Registered Users Posts: 525 ✭✭✭ To Alcohol


    Off to the Wolfe Tones gig in Citiwest tonight. Will I be snowed in?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    I reckon those charts are overcooking where it will snow. Like every event so far this winter I reckon within 30-40 miles of the Irish sea will be cold rain with maybe a hint of sleet. Higher ground of the midlands, Cavan and Monaghan most likely to see any snow and even then only temporary.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,447 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    Gonzo wrote: »
    I reckon those charts are overcooking where it will snow. Like every event so far this winter I reckon within 30-40 miles of the Irish sea will be cold rain with maybe a hint of sleet. Higher ground of the midlands, Cavan and Monaghan most likely to see any snow and even then only temporary.

    Yep same old same old


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,996 ✭✭✭ piplip87


    Not getting excites by this at all.... Previous warnings all pointed towards snow here only to shift South. Until I see snow falling and sticking I is not interested


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,347 ✭✭✭✭ MJohnston


    My experience of the HIRLAM this winter suggests that it is too "optimistic" about the height of the rain/snow line and is far too bullish about snow coverage as a result. ARPEGE has been much more accurate for me:

    arpegeuk-1-18-0_hev4.png

    Of course, if this is due to evaporative cooling, different models might perform better, given that I'm basing the performances on mostly frontal events.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    ME Warning issued
    STATUS YELLOW

    Snow-ice Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Dublin, Kildare, Longford, Louth, Westmeath and Meath
    A spell of sleet and snow expected for a time early tonight, turning to rain later.

    Issued:Friday 29 December 2017 11:00
    Valid:Friday 29 December 2017 22:00 to Saturday 30 December 2017 06:00

    I'd like to point out what a yellow warning means. It means be aware, and is aimed at people who are particularly vulnerable to this weather type. It's not a "you will be snowed in" or a "everywhere will be affected" warning, it's simply something to be aware of while carrying out your everyday business. People have completely and utterly lost the run of themselves on platforms like facebook, a few rags have taken up the story and there's everything from people saying "MÉ ARE ALWAYS WRONG" and "WILL I NEED A MONTHS FOOD SUPPLY AND A GENERATOR?". 99% of the time this can be resolved by simply reading the forecast and paying attention to what it actually means.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,364 ✭✭✭ highdef


    Apart from the 9 counties of Ulster, I'm not foreseeing much, if any snow in other locations, unless on high ground.... Say above 150/200m or so. It's mild enough country wide right now. The approaching precipitation is coming off the Atlantic so I can't imagine it getting cold enough for snow in areas further south than the Ulster counties, with wet bulb temperatures not being very favourable. Some higher hills and mountains in North Leinster and the northern half of Connaught may get some transient snow though.

    Oh, how I'd love to be proven wrong though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,085 ✭✭✭ Billcarson


    Can't remember the last time I saw some frontal snow,yet I always get my hopes up whenever there is a chance. Deep down I know as regards my location ,ashbourne, Meath it will as usual be rain. Same rubbish all the time. Not that any snow will hang around for long anyway, milder tomorrow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    There were reports of snow in some parts of Ulster this morning, so it's possible that there might be further snow there from this, but i don't think any part of connacht and further east, aside from very high ground in Wicklow, will see snow out of this.
    In regards to last night's cold rain, I sometimes think forecasters should use their own intuition and experience in these situations- the mild air, given these tracks, usually mix out the cold air quicker than suggested in these situations. It has happened so many times over the years.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Temps across the country right now are generally 6-9C, so don't know how there is going to be any snow out of this except over high ground. Scotland on the other hand looks like they will be mostly very cold for the next 2 weeks with short lived bursts of cold air over Ireland numerous times giving similar conditions to what we have been experiencing all winter so far. I am not expecting snow in my area until there is a serious pattern change to something from the north-east.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,969 ✭✭✭ irishrover99


    They are forecasting sunny spells and temps of about 11 degrees for Saturday morning/afternoon.
    Why any grown up should be disappointed that we will get no snow over weather like we are expecting is beyond me.

    BTW i'm not having a pop at those here who do forecasting as a hobby or profession, i'm just on about the rest.
    Surely a nice day of decent weather beats snow anytime.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    They are forecasting sunny spells and temps of about 11 degrees for Saturday morning/afternoon.
    Why any grown up should be disappointed that we will get no snow over weather like we are expecting is beyond me.

    BTW i'm not having a pop at those here who do forecasting as a hobby or profession, i'm just on about the rest.
    Surely a nice day of decent weather beats snow anytime.

    Not in my book it doesn't!


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,572 ✭✭✭✭ average_runner


    They are forecasting sunny spells and temps of about 11 degrees for Saturday morning/afternoon.
    Why any grown up should be disappointed that we will get no snow over weather like we are expecting is beyond me.

    BTW i'm not having a pop at those here who do forecasting as a hobby or profession, i'm just on about the rest.
    Surely a nice day of decent weather beats snow anytime.

    Met eireann are not forecasting that. Highest is 9 and cold with winds and heavy showers


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,969 ✭✭✭ irishrover99


    Met eireann are not forecasting that. Highest is 9 and cold with winds and heavy showers

    TOMORROW
    Saturday will begin blustery with sunny spells and scattered showers. Later in the afternoon, showers will die out and winds will gradually ease. Highest temperatures of 8 or 9 degrees. Strong and gusty west to southwest winds will moderate in the afternoon.

    I'm not seeing anything about heavy showers or cold winds there.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,572 ✭✭✭✭ average_runner


    TOMORROW
    Saturday will begin blustery with sunny spells and scattered showers. Later in the afternoon, showers will die out and winds will gradually ease. Highest temperatures of 8 or 9 degrees. Strong and gusty west to southwest winds will moderate in the afternoon.

    I'm not seeing anything about heavy showers or cold winds there.


    Where is the 11 degrees?

    Also said it will be a cold blustery day with heavy showers. Go to met.ie


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Ironically you can relate the above to my post at the top of this page!

    It's not going to be 11c, it's not going to be heavy showers, it'll be 8/9c with moderating blustery winds and showers which will be dying out and giving way to sunny spells.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,572 ✭✭✭✭ average_runner


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Ironically you can relate the above to my post at the top of this page!

    It's not going to be 11c, it's not going to be heavy showers, it'll be 8/9c with moderating blustery winds and showers which will be dying out and giving way to sunny spells.

    Clearly said occasional heavy showers


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Clearly said occasional heavy showers

    Where does it say heavy?

    If we can't get the little things right!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,136 ✭✭✭ lolie


    Temp's between 4 and 8 degrees at 4pm.
    Its cold outside but not bitter, hard to believe there could be a bit of snow later.
    Should be a nice contrast in temp's for a while tonight
    nmm_uk1-0-19-0_zbs2.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,347 ✭✭✭✭ MJohnston


    TOMORROW
    Saturday will begin blustery with sunny spells and scattered showers. Later in the afternoon, showers will die out and winds will gradually ease. Highest temperatures of 8 or 9 degrees. Strong and gusty west to southwest winds will moderate in the afternoon.

    I'm not seeing anything about heavy showers or cold winds there.

    That's not 11 degrees, and it will feel a lot colder than even 8 thanks to that strong wind chill.

    Give me a frosty day of 3°, cloudless skies, and no breeze at all over that, anyday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,477 ✭✭✭ Comhrá


    from the Met Eireann website at 1700 hrs:
    Tomorrow Saturday will be bright, cold and blustery with dry sunny spells and showers. The showers will occur mainly across the north and west - some heavy with hail over Ulster during the morning. Highest temperatures of 6 to 10 degrees. More rain and strong winds will reach the southwest during the evening.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    I'd say not a hope of snow tonight. Evaporative cooling not only cools the air but it also increases dewpoint due to the addition of all that water vapour. Temperature decreases and dewpoint increases and they meet at the wet-bulb temperature. For snow to occur from current temperatures we'd need dewpoints to be several (4-5) degrees below zero to get the wbt around zero. Dewpoints are currently ranging from 0 to +5 degrees, and with overcast skies there is no prospect of them falling.

    We need to drop it with the snow and look to Dylan for our fix.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,816 ✭✭✭ redsteveireland


    Some evidence of a change in precipitation to the more icey variety in the last frame on radar.

    437307.png


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    rain almost about to hit here, feeling relatively mild outside now. Not a chance of even sleet tonight, far too mild.


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