Risk of snow tonight (29th/30th) - Ulster, Leinster, Connaught

Kermit.de.frog

Euro4





From the center of the country northward is at risk of some heavyish snowfall, mostly due to evaporative cooling, as heavy rain moves northeastward for a few hours tonight. The rain will turn to snow and could fall as snow throughout for many in the northern half of the country.

For a time eastern coastal counties have an on shore breeze so, likely, rain and sleet here.

2 - 4 cms, more locally.

Kermit.de.frog

Upgraded title to yellow warning, 2 - 4 cms inland, more locally (counties north of a line Dublin - Galway). Elsewhere likely to be transient - rain, snow, rain. Munster, far South Leinster looks not effected.

ninebeanrows

Hirlam is going for it- that is a wedge of snow not to far north of the Estuary

Very much intensity dependent--- places like Monaghan could get slammed but should be a temporary affair with mild temperatures soon sweeping north by morning....

mattser

I'm sure the residents of Erie, Pennsylvania would love this thread.

jamesbondings

Off to Galway for a few days tomorrow morning. Remote location outside oran more. I can't read these charts. Should we expect snow bad road conditions? I would be tempted to leave today so we can prepare if so.

Kermit.de.frog

Weathercheck wrote: »

Hirlam is going for it- that is a wedge of snow not to far north of the Estuary

Very much intensity dependent--- places like Monaghan could get slammed but should be a temporary affair with mild temperatures soon sweeping north by morning....

I'll eat my hat if anything remotely that intense actually occurs:pac:

Gone by morning though as you say.

Kermit.de.frog

jamesbondings wrote: »

Off to Galway for a few days tomorrow morning. Remote location outside oran more. I can't read these charts. Should we expect snow bad road conditions? I would be tempted to leave today so we can prepare if so.

It'll be fine.

To Alcohol

Off to the Wolfe Tones gig in Citiwest tonight. Will I be snowed in?

Gonzo

I reckon those charts are overcooking where it will snow. Like every event so far this winter I reckon within 30-40 miles of the Irish sea will be cold rain with maybe a hint of sleet. Higher ground of the midlands, Cavan and Monaghan most likely to see any snow and even then only temporary.

pad199207

Gonzo wrote: »

I reckon those charts are overcooking where it will snow. Like every event so far this winter I reckon within 30-40 miles of the Irish sea will be cold rain with maybe a hint of sleet. Higher ground of the midlands, Cavan and Monaghan most likely to see any snow and even then only temporary.

Yep same old same old

piplip87

Not getting excites by this at all.... Previous warnings all pointed towards snow here only to shift South. Until I see snow falling and sticking I is not interested

MJohnston

My experience of the HIRLAM this winter suggests that it is too "optimistic" about the height of the rain/snow line and is far too bullish about snow coverage as a result. ARPEGE has been much more accurate for me:



Of course, if this is due to evaporative cooling, different models might perform better, given that I'm basing the performances on mostly frontal events.

JCX BXC

ME Warning issued

STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Dublin, Kildare, Longford, Louth, Westmeath and Meath
A spell of sleet and snow expected for a time early tonight, turning to rain later.

Issued:Friday 29 December 2017 11:00
Valid:Friday 29 December 2017 22:00 to Saturday 30 December 2017 06:00

I'd like to point out what a yellow warning means. It means be aware, and is aimed at people who are particularly vulnerable to this weather type. It's not a "you will be snowed in" or a "everywhere will be affected" warning, it's simply something to be aware of while carrying out your everyday business. People have completely and utterly lost the run of themselves on platforms like facebook, a few rags have taken up the story and there's everything from people saying "MÉ ARE ALWAYS WRONG" and "WILL I NEED A MONTHS FOOD SUPPLY AND A GENERATOR?". 99% of the time this can be resolved by simply reading the forecast and paying attention to what it actually means.

highdef

Apart from the 9 counties of Ulster, I'm not foreseeing much, if any snow in other locations, unless on high ground.... Say above 150/200m or so. It's mild enough country wide right now. The approaching precipitation is coming off the Atlantic so I can't imagine it getting cold enough for snow in areas further south than the Ulster counties, with wet bulb temperatures not being very favourable. Some higher hills and mountains in North Leinster and the northern half of Connaught may get some transient snow though.

Oh, how I'd love to be proven wrong though.

Billcarson

Can't remember the last time I saw some frontal snow,yet I always get my hopes up whenever there is a chance. Deep down I know as regards my location ,ashbourne, Meath it will as usual be rain. Same rubbish all the time. Not that any snow will hang around for long anyway, milder tomorrow.

nacho libre

There were reports of snow in some parts of Ulster this morning, so it's possible that there might be further snow there from this, but i don't think any part of connacht and further east, aside from very high ground in Wicklow, will see snow out of this.
In regards to last night's cold rain, I sometimes think forecasters should use their own intuition and experience in these situations- the mild air, given these tracks, usually mix out the cold air quicker than suggested in these situations. It has happened so many times over the years.

Gonzo

Temps across the country right now are generally 6-9C, so don't know how there is going to be any snow out of this except over high ground. Scotland on the other hand looks like they will be mostly very cold for the next 2 weeks with short lived bursts of cold air over Ireland numerous times giving similar conditions to what we have been experiencing all winter so far. I am not expecting snow in my area until there is a serious pattern change to something from the north-east.

irishrover99

They are forecasting sunny spells and temps of about 11 degrees for Saturday morning/afternoon.
Why any grown up should be disappointed that we will get no snow over weather like we are expecting is beyond me.

BTW i'm not having a pop at those here who do forecasting as a hobby or profession, i'm just on about the rest.
Surely a nice day of decent weather beats snow anytime.

JCX BXC

irishrover99 wrote: »

They are forecasting sunny spells and temps of about 11 degrees for Saturday morning/afternoon.
Why any grown up should be disappointed that we will get no snow over weather like we are expecting is beyond me.

BTW i'm not having a pop at those here who do forecasting as a hobby or profession, i'm just on about the rest.
Surely a nice day of decent weather beats snow anytime.

Not in my book it doesn't!

average_runner

irishrover99 wrote: »

They are forecasting sunny spells and temps of about 11 degrees for Saturday morning/afternoon.
Why any grown up should be disappointed that we will get no snow over weather like we are expecting is beyond me.

BTW i'm not having a pop at those here who do forecasting as a hobby or profession, i'm just on about the rest.
Surely a nice day of decent weather beats snow anytime.

Met eireann are not forecasting that. Highest is 9 and cold with winds and heavy showers

irishrover99

average_runner wrote: »

Met eireann are not forecasting that. Highest is 9 and cold with winds and heavy showers

TOMORROW
Saturday will begin blustery with sunny spells and scattered showers. Later in the afternoon, showers will die out and winds will gradually ease. Highest temperatures of 8 or 9 degrees. Strong and gusty west to southwest winds will moderate in the afternoon.

I'm not seeing anything about heavy showers or cold winds there.

average_runner

irishrover99 wrote: »

TOMORROW
Saturday will begin blustery with sunny spells and scattered showers. Later in the afternoon, showers will die out and winds will gradually ease. Highest temperatures of 8 or 9 degrees. Strong and gusty west to southwest winds will moderate in the afternoon.

I'm not seeing anything about heavy showers or cold winds there.

Where is the 11 degrees?

Also said it will be a cold blustery day with heavy showers. Go to met.ie

JCX BXC

Ironically you can relate the above to my post at the top of this page!

It's not going to be 11c, it's not going to be heavy showers, it'll be 8/9c with moderating blustery winds and showers which will be dying out and giving way to sunny spells.

average_runner

JCX BXC wrote: »

Ironically you can relate the above to my post at the top of this page!

It's not going to be 11c, it's not going to be heavy showers, it'll be 8/9c with moderating blustery winds and showers which will be dying out and giving way to sunny spells.

Clearly said occasional heavy showers

JCX BXC

average_runner wrote: »

Clearly said occasional heavy showers

Where does it say heavy?

If we can't get the little things right!

lolie

Temp's between 4 and 8 degrees at 4pm.
Its cold outside but not bitter, hard to believe there could be a bit of snow later.
Should be a nice contrast in temp's for a while tonight

MJohnston

irishrover99 wrote: »

TOMORROW
Saturday will begin blustery with sunny spells and scattered showers. Later in the afternoon, showers will die out and winds will gradually ease. Highest temperatures of 8 or 9 degrees. Strong and gusty west to southwest winds will moderate in the afternoon.

I'm not seeing anything about heavy showers or cold winds there.

That's not 11 degrees, and it will feel a lot colder than even 8 thanks to that strong wind chill.

Give me a frosty day of 3°, cloudless skies, and no breeze at all over that, anyday.

Comhrá

from the Met Eireann website at 1700 hrs:

Tomorrow Saturday will be bright, cold and blustery with dry sunny spells and showers. The showers will occur mainly across the north and west - some heavy with hail over Ulster during the morning. Highest temperatures of 6 to 10 degrees. More rain and strong winds will reach the southwest during the evening.

Gaoth Laidir

I'd say not a hope of snow tonight. Evaporative cooling not only cools the air but it also increases dewpoint due to the addition of all that water vapour. Temperature decreases and dewpoint increases and they meet at the wet-bulb temperature. For snow to occur from current temperatures we'd need dewpoints to be several (4-5) degrees below zero to get the wbt around zero. Dewpoints are currently ranging from 0 to +5 degrees, and with overcast skies there is no prospect of them falling.

We need to drop it with the snow and look to Dylan for our fix.

redsteveireland

Some evidence of a change in precipitation to the more icey variety in the last frame on radar.

Gonzo

rain almost about to hit here, feeling relatively mild outside now. Not a chance of even sleet tonight, far too mild.

arctictree

+4.0c here. Only the tops of the mountains getting snow tonight in wicklow I'd say. No precip here yet but radar says otherwise?!

George Sunsnow

arctictree wrote: »

+4.0c here. Only the tops of the mountains getting snow tonight in wicklow I'd say. No precip here yet but radar says otherwise?!

Same temp here but look at the dp
Only 1c here so hill snow is not outlandish albeit transitional only

mountainy man

Schleeet!

ninebeanrows

Should be some snow in Knock in next hour or so.

thomasj

mountainy man wrote: »

Schleeet!

Latest radar

MJohnston

thomasj wrote: »

Latest radar

That radar has been showing it raining here in Dublin 7 for a couple of hours, but it has been bone dry.

Gonzo

MJohnston wrote: »

That radar has been showing it raining here in Dublin 7 for a couple of hours, but it has been bone dry.

same here in Meath, bone dry here.

mountainy man

Snow now!

arctictree

Temp has dropped to +3.0c now and raining.

Rock Lesnar

Gonzo wrote: »

same here in Meath, bone dry here.

Yeah just noticed the radar so went out for a nosey and its bone dry

pad199207

Temps have fallen pretty sharply here down to 3.0c

ZX7R

Sleet in the heavier bursts of rain, it was sticking to the visor of my motorcycle helmet
Just outside kildare town

thomasj

Well it's raining down the road in blanch they got that right at least

highdef

Gonzo wrote: »

same here in Meath, bone dry here.

North Kildare, near Enfield, and it's raining several hours, moderate at times. Amazing what a couple of dozen km can do!

pad199207

Some flakes mixing in with the moderate rain here in Kildare now

George Sunsnow

Sleet here near Arklow too
Quite moderate,you can see the wet melting flakes in it
Temp has dropped also
Should certainly be snow up high

thomasj

Raining heavily in clonsilla station now

highdef

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Sleet here near Arklow too
Quite moderate,you can see the wet melting flakes in it
Temp has dropped also
Should certainly be snow up high

Loving the warmth in your house. I sometimes pass 30c but it's a paltry 25.3 in the living room now. Back on topic, temperatures are falling now. 2.9c. rain

yorlum11

George Sunsnow wrote:

Sleet here near Arklow too Quite moderate,you can see the wet melting flakes in it Temp has dropped also Should certainly be snow up high

Are you in the steam room? 29.4 inside temp

ninebeanrows

Snowing in Knock