European Population Decline, problem or not?

Pithythefool

Came across this today, was surprised by the projections. I knew there was rapid change afoot, but not on this level. For what its worth I looked into the research and found it to be a reputable source. Well worth having a look at it.

http://www.pewforum.org/2017/11/29/europes-growing-muslim-population/







I don't want to turn this into an essay so I'll try to make brief points (still gonna be long).

I don't think this is a good thing. I am not looking at it from an anti-muslim point of view, but rather from an irish/European point of view. They could be ostriches instead of muslims, I'm more focused on the rapid decline of our own population majorities and how it impacts on us.

You cant solve a problem until you recognise that there is a problem. That's why the poll I'm including is simply a "this is bad news" versus "this is good news". This frames the problem, not anything about solutions. Just a clean yes or no that puts us at a starting point.

Its not simply about religion. You can be against religion in general, but that wont stop the changes that this migration will bring. It will inevitably lead toward the creation of muslim political parties, it will bring Europe into closer alliance with the middle east, there is the spectre of Sharia law being enforced, social values and so on.

There are 3 projections in the paper, I am excluding the zero immigration scenario because it is highly unlikely. Note that with zero immigration the muslim population is projected to double anyway. I think the medium and high projections are solid, simply for the fact that I don't see any stop to immigration under the medium term. There is no political will for it.

I tend toward the high immigration scenario. The world is getting hotter, and climate change is factual whether you believe its man-made or natural. As time goes on the impetus to leave inhospitable zones will drive immigration numbers we have never seen before. Other reasons too, but that one is incontrovertible in particular.

I don't blame muslims for moving to Europe. Simply put, it is a superior place to live in all terms, from infrastructure to climate. The real issue lies with us, and I think the over-riding problem is that we are no longer united as a people, neither on a European level or a national level. We are living in a social climate were we are constantly put down, repeatedly told we are "bad" for all manner of reasons. That has a difficult-to-measure effect, whether it is putting down "white" people, putting down men, putting down straight people, gay people, women, pro and anti-abortion, the list is endless. The word "nationalism" is a bad word now. Christianity is a bad thing now too. Basically everything and anything that could have brought us together has had the opposite effect, it has weakened us to a point where we can no longer act collectively for our own greater good.

I always thought a house is a very apt analogy for countries. If you believe that you don't own the house you live (thereby inviting anyone else to take it), then someone else WILL take it. Its as simple as that. This is the reality of the world.

Our population is stabilising, but the pyramid scheme of importing layer upon layer of cheap labour is foisted on us daily. Its a crazy scheme that doesn't stand up to logic. Unfortunately, instead of allowing our population to stabilise, it is merely opening the door for continued mass immigration.

We are also pricing ourselves out of existence. There are increasing sections of our societies that can no longer afford to have children. This is fuel to the fire with poorly regulated immigration.

Will an increasing muslim population (and rise of muslim majority political parties) mean that they will close the doors to yet more muslims entering Europe? Highly unlikely, its simply logical that that they would want more to come in.

Will a decreasing European population (with decreasing political representation) mean that we will be MORE or LESS able to curb muslim immigration? Logically, we will have less say.

As I said above, this isn't strictly about muslims. Just think of the numbers when you include every other non-European denomination too. And don't forget the amount of undocumented, which I would guess is very, very high too.

If it was balanced, if we could say that Saudi Arabia will have a 30% European population by 2050, theres nothing to worry about. But this is all a one-way stream. Our population is going down, exponentially......and that's it. Theres no upside.

I'm primarily interested in whether people see this as a problem or not. I think it is a problem, a serious problem that would be easier to address today than it will be later, whatever form that takes.

Note: The muslim population of Ireland in these projections remains quite small in all scenarios. However the overall effect would be akin to moving Ireland to the middle east. I don't see how that could be a good thing.

Note 2: There no point bashing muslims. If someone chimes in with some outwardly racist comment, just realise that you are giving people rope with which to hang yourself. This is a common sense issue here, argue with common sense.

Mr. CooL ICE

Mod: Moved to AS&C, as it is more suitable.

Please read the charter before posting.

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

European isn't a religion for a start.

Pithythefool

Legacy Blue Limousine wrote: »

European isn't a religion for a start.

And a biscuit isn't a balloon for seconds.

Fantastic insight there, really conducive to conversation.

Fathom

Pithythefool wrote: »

I'm primarily interested in whether people see this as a problem or not. I think it is a problem, a serious problem that would be easier to address today than it will be later, whatever form that takes.

Pew Research Center: Europe’s Muslim population is diverse. It encompasses Muslims born in Europe and in a wide variety of non-European countries. It includes Sunnis, Shiites, and Sufis. Levels of religious commitment and belief vary among Europe’s Muslim populations. Some of the Muslims enumerated in this report would not describe Muslim identity as salient in their daily lives. For others, Muslim identity profoundly shapes their daily lives. However, quantifying religious devotion and categories of Muslim identity is outside the scope of this report.

Has diversity been a competitive advantage selling to a global marketplace?

Fathom

MOD REMINDER TO ALL POSTERS: The Anthropology, Sociology & Culture forum is located in the Science, Health & Environment category. Please keep this in mind before posting. Personal attacks, bickering, and the like will be met with mod action.

Pithythefool

Fathom wrote: »

Has diversity been a competitive advantage selling to a global marketplace?

I'd argue that social division is of far greater profit than some ethereal notion that different races somehow confer a "competitive advantage"

Same result, profit? Except that "competitive advantage" is far more palatable for the general population.

As for the diversity within muslim populations, there are various statistics that show a radicalisation of muslim youth on the uptick. Its always the biggest, harshest voice that rules, and the quieter voices fall in line behind them.

Regardless of that though, as I said in the beginning, my slant is on the European population decline, or replacement if you prefer. And I fail to see how dwindling numbers of your own "race" can be a good thing for that "race". Logical, no?

Fathom

Pithythefool wrote: »

...as I said in the beginning, my slant is on the European population decline,

Depends upon how you define "European" population. How? Details? Citations for support? The earlier Pew report mentioned the German nation. The population pyramid for Germany shows its population in decline per the below pyramid. Several of its neighboring nations are experiencing similar population declines.

Pithythefool wrote: »

or replacement if you prefer.

Replacement? Are you discussing migration? If so, what time period? Today? Or 100 years ago, or 200 or 300 or 1000, or when? Are all peoples of this "European" population ultimately migrants?

Pithythefool wrote: »

And I fail to see how dwindling numbers of your own "race" can be a good thing for that "race". Logical, no?

The concept of race has been an issue of debate for decades. For example, Matt Cartmill (1998), The Status of the Race Concept in Physical Anthropology, American Anthropologist, Volume 100, Issue 3, pp 651–660, concludes: "There are hereditary differences among human beings... However, none of these facts provides any intellectual support for the race concept, for racial classifications, or for social hierarchies based on ethnic-group membership." Evolution and migration over 2,000 generations suggests that we are all ultimately from Africa. Genetic markers beginning in South Africa can be traced throughtout the globe. See The Journey of Man: A Genetic Odyssey, Space And Intelligence, Dec 4, 2016.

Pithythefool

Fathom wrote: »

Depends upon how you define "European" population. How? Details? Citations for support?

The earlier Pew report mentioned the German nation. The population pyramid for Germany shows its population in decline per the below pyramid. Several of its neighboring nations are experiencing similar population declines.



Replacement? Are you discussing migration? If so, what time period? Today? Or 100 years ago, or 200 or 300 or 1000, or when? Are all peoples of this "European" population ultimately migrants?

The concept of race has been an issue of debate for decades. For example, Matt Cartmill (1998), The Status of the Race Concept in Physical Anthropology, American Anthropologist, Volume 100, Issue 3, pp 651–660, concludes: "There are hereditary differences among human beings... However, none of these facts provides any intellectual support for the race concept, for racial classifications, or for social hierarchies based on ethnic-group membership."

Evolution and migration over 2,000 generations suggests that we are all ultimately from Africa. Genetic markers beginning in South Africa can be traced throughtout the globe. See The Journey of Man: A Genetic Odyssey, Space And Intelligence, Dec 4, 2016.

You see, this is why anthropology isnt the most useful of sciences (just joking, good humoured here), they spend far too much time trying to create definitions, only to come to the conclusion that there are too many. Its almost philosophical in SOME regards!

I didn't create this thread for the anthropology section. It was moved here from after hours. I was hoping for a conversation based on the general publics perception. Now if you wanted to find some little tidbit of interesting social phenomena in this alone, you might question why something that is deemed a "hot topic" got shunted out of view of a much wider audience, essentially being moved here to die! I was interested in the political discussion as anything else, but that wont happen here.

I see what you're saying above, but unless we want to have a conversation about defining terms until the cows come home....which I dont....the thread really isn't fit for purpose, I'm afraid.

CastielJ

We need to stop migration of muslims 'cause soon they will be everywhere and they will demand their rights and places in the parliament

Fathom

Population decline is correlated with increasing education of women. Their education has improved in EU. Not contraceptive education. Rather overall advancing education.

Black Swan

Fathom wrote: »

Population decline is correlated with increasing education of women. Their education has improved in EU. Not contraceptive education. Rather overall advancing education.

Higher education enrollments of women end of WWII was in the 30 percentiles, where today in American colleges and universities enrollments and graduations of women from 4-year degree granting institutions exceeds men by over half (Chronicle of Higher Education). Zero population growth and eventual decline in America would have occurred except for the additions of both legal and illegal immigration.

Fathom

Black Swan wrote: »

Higher education enrollments of women end of WWII was in the 30 percentiles, where today in American colleges and universities enrollments and graduations of women from 4-year degree granting institutions exceeds men by over half (Chronicle of Higher Education). Zero population growth and eventual decline in America would have occurred except for the additions of both legal and illegal immigration.

Strategic demographic shift? Slow. Steady. Untold outcomes. History not repeated. Only guesses as to outcomes.

Black Swan

Demographic shift indeed and without history to guide unforeseen outcomes. Wondering if there are comparative shifts that could be decontextualised and moved from another domain to that of gender?

Fathom

Theories marking higher education advancement by gender? Outcomes? Declining birth rates.