Double Gameweek/Blank Gameweek planning

KevIRL

Spurs and West Ham scheduled for NYE has been moved to Jan 4th meaning that the two teams have a BGW 21 and a DGW 22.

Spurs double is Swansea (a) and West Ham (h)
West Ham have WBA (h) and Spurs (a)

The availability of the second WC adds an extra dimension to this one from a strategy point of view.

Now where did I leave that free hit chip?....

Father Hernandez

Will probably be steerling clear of West Ham players for the whole season but those 2 fixtures for Kane look tasty.

Think that his influenced my decision to keep him and not dump just yet. He'll come good.

Eriksen to come in for that GW22 also tempting.

If he manages a bit of form, Kane TC wouldn't be the maddest thing in the world for the DGW

ScummyMan

I already cannot wait to be disappointed by Kane when I triple captain him for that GW.

CSF

Another reason to keep Kane throughout the Christmas period. Will bank the transfer in 21 and have 2 freebies to bring in 2 Spurs players in GW22. Very unlikely I will touch West Ham.

Iused2likebusts

2 day turnaround makes it much less attractive

Iused2likebusts

Could be a good week for the free hit. As its a 2 day turnaround for a lot of teams. The city striker and mid that doesn't play 2 days before , same with Liverpool etc, Chelsea play arsenal away so take out their players. Get in lloris and verthonghen who won't be rotated.

KevIRL

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

2 day turnaround makes it much less attractive

Agree. Kane and Eriksen the only real DGW candidates for me atm.

CSF

KevIRL wrote: »

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

2 day turnaround makes it much less attractive

Agree. Kane and Eriksen the only real DGW candidates for me atm.

Lloris

Morzadec

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Could be a good week for the free hit. As its a 2 day turnaround for a lot of teams. The city striker and mid that doesn't play 2 days before , same with Liverpool etc, Chelsea play arsenal away so take out their players. Get in lloris and verthonghen who won't be rotated.

There's logic in that but I think it would be risky.

It's been hard to predict who gets rested from teams this year, if it was easy I'd agree with you

Cartman78

Has to be Andy Carroll TC :pac::pac::pac:

Guaranteed 12 point return unless he gets booked or sent off

KevIRL

Spurs drawn home to AFC Wimbledon in the cup. Game will be on the weekend following the DGW. Every chance Kane, eriksen et Al start the DGW games and rest the cup match imo.

FHFC

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Could be a good week for the free hit. As its a 2 day turnaround for a lot of teams. The city striker and mid that doesn't play 2 days before , same with Liverpool etc, Chelsea play arsenal away so take out their players. Get in lloris and verthonghen who won't be rotated.

This was the scenario I expected free hit to be best for. But if Kane and Spurs recover some form, which they should, Kane TC will be hard to pass up.

alchemist33

Surely there will be blankier blank weeks than this, with more than two teams missing out? Although it could prove hard to use all your chips in maximal fashion. It might be Kane TC for me too.

FHFC

https://twitter.com/BenCrellin/status/937754651990118402

FHFC

alchemist33 wrote: »

Surely there will be blankier blank weeks than this, with more than two teams missing out? Although it could prove hard to use all your chips in maximal fashion. It might be Kane TC for me too.

The Free Hit option would involve using the hit in the double not the blank....

alchemist33

FHFC wrote: »

The Free Hit option would involve using the hit in the double not the blank....

Even so, this blank/dgw doesn't seem the best week for it. Many players will have one or two Spurs players anyway and you'd probably be better off with sgw players from other clubs than WHam players.

Edit: maybe I'm being too negative, I don't know

Iused2likebusts

Morzadec wrote: »

There's logic in that but I think it would be risky.

It's been hard to predict who gets rested from teams this year, if it was easy I'd agree with you

The scenario id be thinking would be aguero starts against palace on the 30th gw 21 id be getting in jesus for watford gw 22. I also think you will be able to predict one city mid that will start. Liverpool are rotating a lot if one of salah,mane, coutinho, salah miss out against leicester on the 30th you get them in with the free hit for the burnley game. There should be one or two big hitters that are rested on the 30th if so get them in for free hit.You Could have 3 spurs kane, lloris and one other and 1 west ham player. Ill probably have 3 chelsea they are away at arsenal so could get rid of those 3 for the week. 2 watford away at city could also offload for the week. Another benefit is you can offload kane possibly in gw18 city a, burnley a , sou H , blank and spread the money knowing you can get him back for the double or just sell him for the blank when everyone else has to hold. You will also be up on people that have to take hits. Its not a definite that ill play it then but had been thinking of that week as a potential gw for it before the double was announced so this news makes it more attractive.

2nd Row Donkey

^^^^ my heads hurtin' already

Chancer3001

Main issue for me is whether to use free hit to get in 3 spurs players....

Or to use triple captain on kane

I'll sell kane the week before for the blank. Then buy him back for the double

FHFC

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

The scenario id be thinking would be aguero starts against palace on the 30th gw 21 id be getting in jesus for watford gw 22. I also think you will be able to predict one city mid that will start. Liverpool are rotating a lot if one of salah,mane, coutinho, salah miss out against leicester on the 30th you get them in with the free hit for the burnley game. There should be one or two big hitters that are rested on the 30th if so get them in for free hit.You Could have 3 spurs kane, lloris and one other and 1 west ham player. Ill probably have 3 chelsea they are away at arsenal so could get rid of those 3 for the week. 2 watford away at city could also offload for the week. Another benefit is you can offload kane possibly in gw18 city a, burnley a , sou H , blank and spread the money knowing you can get him back for the double or just sell him for the blank when everyone else has to hold. You will also be up on people that have to take hits. Its not a definite that ill play it then but had been thinking of that week as a potential gw for it before the double was announced so this news makes it more attractive.

Spot on analysis. First person I've seen highlighting the added advantage of the free hit to play the rotations. Hadn't thought of that.

The only thing is that there may not be a better option for the TC this season.

Here's a good post on it from FFS from one of the sharpest guys on there.... interested to hear your thoughts Busts.

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/17115787

Iused2likebusts

Ye the TC also seems a good option as by waiting you don't know what will be at stake later in the season. I do think kane will play both games and with everyone captaining him you are getting a higher captain score that week than the rest. In the big dgw if would be possible to get a higher captain score than someone playing the TC as people will all be on a different captain.With possibly 5 English teams topping their groups in the CL I think a couple of them could easily make the SF this year. Arsenal would probably be the team I'd have my eye on for a TC option later in the season if I didn't go for Kane. I have to have a good think about it and what may be other strategies to pursue. For the 2 big dgws you could do what the majority do BB in one and TC in the other. I think free hit for one of the big dgws needs to be considered aswell. You could also wildcard the week of one of the big dgws . Basically you have 4 chips you can use for 2 big dgws so the other 2 have to be used somewhere else. For the majority its only 1 as they will wildcard the week before to set up BB. I've also thought of free hit for gw38 you would be taking a risk though and of course you have the blank week for free hit.

Iused2likebusts

2nd Row Donkey wrote: »

^^^^ my heads hurtin' already

We are only getting started.

FHFC

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

I do think kane will play both games and with everyone captaining him you are getting a higher captain score that week than the rest. In the big dgw if would be possible to get a higher captain score than someone playing the TC as people will all be on a different captain.

Not following you on this bit.

My cold mathematics/logic on the TC is that all that matters come the end of the season is that you got the highest possible return from the chip, i.e. the highest score x1 that you could vs whoever everyone else played theirs on.

Whether your triple captain score in a particular week is higher vs other people's normal (c) is irrelevant to me. It might matter if you are in a cup or playing for a monthly prize but that's always secondary to final OR for me personally.

Assuming Kane and Spurs aren't magically broken overnight it's probably hard to see there being a better option than Kane in those 2 fixtures for probability of a 15 to 20 point hail from the TC.

FHFC

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

I do think kane will play both games and with everyone captaining him you are getting a higher captain score that week than the rest. In the big dgw if would be possible to get a higher captain score than someone playing the TC as people will all be on a different captain.

Not following you on this bit.

My cold mathematics/logic on the TC is that all that matters come the end of the season is that you got the highest possible return from the chip, i.e. the highest score x1 that you could vs whoever everyone else played theirs on.

Whether your triple captain score in a particular week is higher vs other people's normal (c) is irrelevant to me. It might matter if you are in a cup or playing for a monthly prize but that's always secondary to final OR for me personally.

Assuming Kane and Spurs aren't magically broken overnight it's probably hard to see there being a better option than Kane in those 2 fixtures for probability of a 15 to 20 point haul from the TC.

Iused2likebusts

FHFC wrote: »

Not following you on this bit.

My cold mathematics/logic on the TC is that all that matters come the end of the season is that you got the highest possible return from the chip, i.e. the highest score x1 that you could vs whoever everyone else played theirs on.

Whether your triple captain score in a particular week is higher vs other people's normal (c) is irrelevant to me. It might matter if you are in a cup or playing for a monthly prize but that's always secondary to final OR for me personally.

Assuming Kane and Spurs aren't magically broken overnight it's probably hard to see there being a better option than Kane in those 2 fixtures for probability of a 15 to 20 point hail from the TC.

Ye it is irrelevant in the overall scheme of OR. My thinking on that chip is the exact same as you. The theory being your playing against yourself and your other captain scores.. I was just pointing out that in a dgw there maybe 3 or 4 good TC options whereas if you use it in this week its pretty much going to be everyone on Kane. The point I was making was you won't be beaten on captain score in gw22 but could be in other dgw weeks. Like when we TC Carroll . When it comes down to it I'm all on for the logic of TC is just you trying to maximise what is your best chance of getting your highest captain score of the season and playing it in that gw and I agree that Kane in this dgw has a very good chance of being that. If it fails you should still get a boost as everyone else will be on him that week anyway.

Cartman78

So it's getting near that time of year again...all the planning and preparation, the feeling that it's getting earlier & earlier every year, the anticipation, the stress, the enjoyment, the copious amounts of alcohol and the nagging sensation that it could all go spectacularly t1ts up.....Happy Christmas Folks!! :D:D:D

And Happy Double-Gameweek-Planning as well

I think this is what separates the obsessive FPL fanatics like ourselves from the ordinary casuals....the hours I've spent over the last couple of years planning for Blanks and DGW has played a huge part in me finishing in the top 50K twice.

FHFC

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Ye it is irrelevant in the overall scheme of OR. My thinking on that chip is the exact same as you. The theory being your playing against yourself and your other captain scores.. I was just pointing out that in a dgw there maybe 3 or 4 good TC options whereas if you use it in this week its pretty much going to be everyone on Kane. The point I was making was you won't be beaten on captain score in gw22 but could be in other dgw weeks. Like when we TC Carroll . When it comes down to it I'm all on for the logic of TC is just you trying to maximise what is your best chance of getting your highest captain score of the season and playing it in that gw and I agree that Kane in this dgw has a very good chance of being that. If it fails you should still get a boost as everyone else will be on him that week anyway.

That's better. You were confusing me with that other fancy stuff.....

Green&Red

FHFC wrote: »

Spot on analysis. First person I've seen highlighting the added advantage of the free hit to play the rotations. Hadn't thought of that.

The only thing is that there may not be a better option for the TC this season.

Here's a good post on it from FFS from one of the sharpest guys on there.... interested to hear your thoughts Busts.

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/17115787

All of his rationale is based around Kane and Spurs hitting form - which currently they are not.

A lot of the analysis is based around that which it has been all season with Spurs because everyone assumes that they will start producing.

The case for the Free Hit can be spun in just the same way.

Lets assume Spurs don't start producing, that they continue to limp on and play poorly at home.

Now you are looking at a team which will have a blank
GW21 and then most likely be rotated GW22 apart from Kane and Lloris.
So you have the option of keeping Kane for GW21 and losing value on him and also tying up 1/8th of your funds.
Or alternatively transferring him out and back in again - thats a -4 (and yes I know you have two free transfers but you will almost definitely at least one of those)
Lloris - thats ok if you have him already, he can sit out one week - hes owned by 9% of the game
Eriksen/Alli - one of them is almost certainly going to be rested for the entirety of the second game
Son - probably the best mid to have as he is guaranteed at least one full game and probably 1.5. But who would ever have him in their team

This is all before you consider keeping these turds for the next five weeks. Lets look at the last five weeks and group the players against similarly priced alternatives. It does not make pretty reading for Spurs

Kane - 19
Morata - 28
Lukaku - 17
Firmino - 22/4
Jesus - 25
Aguero - 20/4

Alli - 12/4
Eriksen - 17
Salah - 56
Sterling - 32
Sane - 12
Mahrez - 26
Ramsey - 31


Lloris - 7/4
DDG -22
Courtois - 24
Cech - 23

The case for the defense is so bad its not worth putting up

So the case for using the free hit chip incredibly strong on that alone.
Add in three West Ham players, who you would never touch and you can put together a team like this for the week

Lloris

Fonte
Cresswell
Zabalete

KDB v Watford
Sane v Watford
Mahrez v Huddersfield
Son

Kane (C)
Aguero v Watford
Rooney v United (Just in case)

Fair enough youre banking on West Ham getting a CS against West Brom. If Aguero isn't going to start go for Vardy and Jesus upfront with Kane


Adding to all that I think Arsenal have a great chance of two excellent DGWs and there is only one man I would have the armband on. Arsenal have no European fixtures to worry about and will be chasing 4th hard to make up for last year. TC the f**k out of Sanchez

Benimar

Green&Red wrote: »

All of his rationale is based around Kane and Spurs hitting form - which currently they are not.

A lot of the analysis is based around that which it has been all season with Spurs because everyone assumes that they will start producing.

The case for the Free Hit can be spun in just the same way.

Lets assume Spurs don't start producing, that they continue to limp on and play poorly at home.

Now you are looking at a team which will have a blank
GW21 and then most likely be rotated GW22 apart from Kane and Lloris.
So you have the option of keeping Kane for GW21 and losing value on him and also tying up 1/8th of your funds.
Or alternatively transferring him out and back in again - thats a -4 (and yes I know you have two free transfers but you will almost definitely at least one of those)
Lloris - thats ok if you have him already, he can sit out one week - hes owned by 9% of the game
Eriksen/Alli - one of them is almost certainly going to be rested for the entirety of the second game
Son - probably the best mid to have as he is guaranteed at least one full game and probably 1.5. But who would ever have him in their team

This is all before you consider keeping these turds for the next five weeks. Lets look at the last five weeks and group the players against similarly priced alternatives. It does not make pretty reading for Spurs

Kane - 19
Morata - 28
Lukaku - 17
Firmino - 22/4
Jesus - 25
Aguero - 20/4

Alli - 12/4
Eriksen - 17
Salah - 56
Sterling - 32
Sane - 12
Mahrez - 26
Ramsey - 31


Lloris - 7/4
DDG -22
Courtois - 24
Cech - 23

The case for the defense is so bad its not worth putting up

So the case for using the free hit chip incredibly strong on that alone.
Add in three West Ham players, who you would never touch and you can put together a team like this for the week

Lloris

Fonte
Cresswell
Zabalete

KDB v Watford
Sane v Watford
Mahrez v Huddersfield
Son

Kane (C)
Aguero v Watford
Rooney v United (Just in case)

Fair enough youre banking on West Ham getting a CS against West Brom. If Aguero isn't going to start go for Vardy and Jesus upfront with Kane


Adding to all that I think Arsenal have a great chance of two excellent DGWs and there is only one man I would have the armband on. Arsenal have no European fixtures to worry about and will be chasing 4th hard to make up for last year. TC the f**k out of Sanchez

Disagree strongly with the two statements in bold.

Spurs don't play for a full week before the Swansea game, and have Wimbledon in the cup after West Ham so can rest the entire team then if they like. The starters are only actually needed on Dec 26th, Jan 2nd, Jan 4th and then Jan 13th. Absolutely no reason why any of Spurs big hitters would need to be rested for either Swansea or West Ham.

Arsenal do have European fixtures to worry about. They could easily find themselves having to do a 'Man U' and having to win the Europa League to get CL football next season, so depending on the timing of the DGWs they could be concentrating on Europe.

Oh, and its not even a guarantee Sanchez will be at Arsenal on Feb 1st!

Green&Red

There you go, we all see it differently. My original point was that there is a herd mentality surrounding the DGW that is all based on the assumption that Spurs will be playing well. If we flip that assumption (which is the way the facts are currently pointing us) then we have a different narrative

eoghan104

Green&Red wrote: »

There you go, we all see it differently. My original point was that there is a herd mentality surrounding the DGW that is all based on the assumption that Spurs will be playing well. If we flip that assumption (which is the way the facts are currently pointing us) then we have a different narrative

Super post well done.

I am in the herd assuming Spurs will be grand but your argument is more reasonable based on current form.

Benimar

Green&Red wrote: »

There you go, we all see it differently. My original point was that there is a herd mentality surrounding the DGW that is all based on the assumption that Spurs will be playing well. If we flip that assumption (which is the way the facts are currently pointing us) then we have a different narrative

There is a huge difference between arguing that Spurs are not playing well (a strong argument) and stating that players will be rested for one of the DGW games (weak argument at best) or that Arsenal have no European commitments (factually incorrect).

If Spurs continue their current form they are only a moderately attractive proposition for the DGW, if they improve again then Kane v swa, WHU as a TC option is as good as it gets. The man has 10 goals in 14 games after all.

I actually don't think there is a herd mentality this issue. Most of the comment about the DGW usually involve some reference to Spurs needing to improve again.

Green&Red

When I say Arsenal have no European games to worry about I'm assuming that the Europa League wont be as pressing as it was last year for United. It will be more like Spurs and Liverpool the two previous seasons.

I would think one of Eriksen or Alli being rested is incredibly likely given Son and Lamella are both available to come in as attacking players. 48 hours is a very short length of time


But as you say if Kane is at the form he was at the end of last year he is worth a TC.
I do think you're missing the point around the overall benefit of the TC as opposed to the free hit.
You have to balance either the transfer costs or the money sitting on your bench for GW21 and the TC points versus the additional points in GW21, the three West Ham players and Kane regular captain points.

IMO the free hit is a stronger chip than the TC so at some stage in the future these benefits will be flipped but with more DGW teams you have a better chance of putting together a stronger team that you'd be happy to hold onto. At the moment I don't want any Spurs players and I never see myself wanting any West Ham players

Benimar

Green&Red wrote: »

When I say Arsenal have no European games to worry about I'm assuming that the Europa League wont be as pressing as it was last year for United. It will be more like Spurs and Liverpool the two previous seasons.

I would think one of Eriksen or Alli being rested is incredibly likely given Son and Lamella are both available to come in as attacking players. 48 hours is a very short length of time


But as you say if Kane is at the form he was at the end of last year he is worth a TC.
I do think you're missing the point around the overall benefit of the TC as opposed to the free hit.
You have to balance either the transfer costs or the money sitting on your bench for GW21 and the TC points versus the additional points in GW21, the three West Ham players and Kane regular captain points.

IMO the free hit is a stronger chip than the TC so at some stage in the future these benefits will be flipped but with more DGW teams you have a better chance of putting together a stronger team that you'd be happy to hold onto. At the moment I don't want any Spurs players and I never see myself wanting any West Ham players

You might want to check how seriously Liverpool took it in 2015/16! They fielded reserve sides in the league from the EL QF onwards.

There are 6 teams looking for 4 CL places this year. Its not inconceivable that come March Arsenal are 6th and need to win the EL to get into the CL.

As for TC v Free Hit, I would have thought most would be looking at this DGW as a viable TC option rather than a Free Hit option, especially if they already own Kane. The Free Hit (assuming Kane is owned) really only gives Eriksen/Alli and Lloris/Vertonghen as realistic options along with 3 (very unattractive) West Ham players.

I think there is a strong argument to play the TC chip in a small DGW as you really only need your captain to perform. The Free Hit (for anyone who has it) can then be used in a DGW with more teams, giving the possibility of having the elusive 11 DGWers - or at least better options than Moysies boys!

EDIT: If Kane is out of form I'd personally hold both chips and just regular captain him (unless I knew who the nailed on starters were for Man City, which I won't!)

manual_man

I'm treating this a bit like my Christmas shopping - I'll figure it out at the last minute :pac:

Seriously though gw22 I'll probably get Kane and TC him and maybe leave it at that. Might get a West Ham cheapie like Masuaku if he's still first choice

Green&Red

Theres also an argument for using your free hit on a slim week and maximising your score when others are scoring low

mectavba

Green&Red wrote: »

Theres also an argument for using your free hit on a slim week and maximising your score when others are scoring low

My most likely use of it. Saves the stress and obvious negative impact on points by getting in and keeping your Swansea/Newcastle/Stoke players just for that week. You can now ignore it and focus on building a strong team

km79

Sanchez will be at man city for theDGWs

Shanotheslayer

km79 wrote: »

Sanchez will be at man city for theDGWs

Don't think Davidson would start ahead of Otamendi and Stones :pac:

km79

km79 wrote: »

Sanchez will be at man city for theDGWs

Could very well be but so will Aguero, Jesus, KDB, Sane and Sterling. And the rest.

They could also have the league more or less wrapped up and be focused on Europe.

Iused2likebusts

What's happened with the Liverpool lineup for today's game is what has me thinking gw22 could be good for free hit. In this circumstance you get in coutinho and firmino and you can be sure similar things will happen at other teams. You can sell Kane for gw21 and get in 3 spurs for gw22 with no hits.

Missing Links

How things change...one or two West Ham players could be a temping proposition for GW22.

FHFC

Free Hit 22 nailed for me. Committed after my transfers for this week.

Green&Red

Missing Links wrote: »

How things change...one or two West Ham players could be a temping proposition for GW22.

Going back to my original argument for using the free hit that weekend, Spurs are still terrible, Kane and Alli have blanked in three out of the last four GWs.

NoviGlitzko

For me I'm split between using the Free Hit chip or not because I really want to take out Kane this gw. GW22 is not a bad week to use it at all but I'm thinking a GW where 10 teams may be playing would represent better value. I'm torn ATM.

km79

@BenCrellin: Updated GW28 Blank probabilities.
There's roughly a 40% chance that the League Cup final will also be a GW28 fixture (ARS vs MCI or MUN vs CHE), in which case the only teams who'd blank would be the two finalists.
(I'll post another update after the Semifinal draw tomorrow night) https://twitter.com/BenCrellin/status/943262049223827457/photo/1

ScummyMan

https://twitter.com/BenCrellin/status/943265401793929217

In another tweet he says "The carnage of Blank GW28 will pale in comparison to the arid wasteland that will be Blank GW31" :P

I really don't think it is wise to blow the Free Hit chip in GW22.

Iused2likebusts

ScummyMan wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BenCrellin/status/943265401793929217

In another tweet he says "The carnage of Blank GW28 will pale in comparison to the arid wasteland that will be Blank GW31" :P

I really don't think it is wise to blow the Free Hit chip in GW22.

Let's say its Bournemouth west brom ,Huddersfield palace and swansea Southampton that goes ahead all you need is a couple of defenders and a couple of the captain options. I'm backing away from the FH in gw 22 myself now as I'm planning on possibly using the FH in gw35 it will also be a blank because of semi finals when less games will be cancelled so more decent teams should have a game. The FH has a lot of potential in gw 22 and I still may use it depending on team selections in gw 21.

Green&Red

Given Spurs form I think I'll look at just Eriksen or Son as C and maybe a west ham defender

FHFC

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Let's say its Bournemouth west brom ,Huddersfield palace and swansea Southampton that goes ahead all you need is a couple of defenders and a couple of the captain options. I'm backing away from the FH in gw 22 myself now as I'm planning on possibly using the FH in gw35 it will also be a blank because of semi finals when less games will be cancelled so more decent teams should have a game. The FH has a lot of potential in gw 22 and I still may use it depending on team selections in gw 21.

I'll be having a closer look at the later dgw scenarios. Agree completely about blank gw31, not gonna be any great advantage in free hit there if it's a major wipeout, I think a lot of people are overlooking that.

But dgw34-bgw35-dgw37 could be tricky....early free hitters will be hoping for a very limited blank in 35

sheroman01

A rested Kane in this sort of form in a DGW against two poor teams - it has to be TC time ...