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Current bitcoin bubble vs 2013 bubble

  • 30-11-2017 6:05pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,678 ✭✭✭ Selik


    Been thinking about this since the early summer and how similar this year is to 2013 in Bitcoin terms compared with 2013. Just swap a price of 1,000 euro in 2013 for 10,000 euro in 2017!

    I bought bitcoin for the first time in early 2013 and sat through the last one in disbelief as it climbed like crazy towards the end of the year then eventually dwindled -80% or so from it's highs by March 2014. I has my coins in an offline wallet so couldn't even trade them but in hindsight this was probably a blessing in disguise.

    From a technical perspective things are incredibly similar although on a fundamental level very different - greater adoption/awareness, dozens more exchanges, more liquidity, margin trading, regulatory concerns and upcoming involvement of ETFs. Alot in the mix!

    So what do people think - are we in for a repeat of 2013? History has a tendency to repeat itself especially with Bitcoin and this is the 4th great bubble so far (there will more guaranteed) and they always come crashing down in the same manner.

    I personally think we could easily go down to 4-6k again before things plateau and build up slowly again and this would be alot healthier than what we have seen this year especially the last few months.

    Here is another recent perspective which echoes my sentiments:


Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,026 ✭✭✭ grindle


    I think $5k-$6k is the floor for this one, lots of buy orders to keep it afloat at that level, much wider range of exchanges, much wider audience of believers - I don't think any drop will be as significant as 2013's again unless it's outlawed.

    Too many people who get it now, including some very rich people who have more faith in it's rise than they do in the dollar's significance which is dwindling yearly.

    However... Slow, healthy growth is a long way away. People will profit-take at the limits they want and any large nation's holiday where BTC is going to be a dinner topic will cause a spike.
    All of this combined with the natural volatility of trading cryptos, where some early adopter can easily use $10m-$20m of gains to wash trade downwards, cause a panic, start buying once the panic settles and now they have even more BTC to push their weight for the next time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,678 ✭✭✭ Selik


    Looks like this is gonna be in even bigger bubble. Impossible to call the top now or if we're just in the early stages !


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