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December 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 27-11-2017 8:05am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,212 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 5.4 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

    5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

    6. For the BONUS question, our traditional prediction of MAX and MIN on Christmas Day at Dub (A) and (for 3 point super-bonus), will it snow at any location among the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website, and this will include 24 as well as 25 Dec. If you get this right on Yes or No, it's worth 2 points for yes verifying, a correct location is worth 1 more point, but no locations will bring in the "No" scores at 3.


    Deadline for entries will be 0300h Friday 1st of December, with 1 point deductions for every 3h late to 1500h Saturday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 12 points accumulated to that time).


    Due to my current busy situation moving house etc, I am going to post my forecast early in case I forget.

    MTC _______ 4.5 __ 13.5 __ -7.0 __ 080 __ 120 ___ 7.0, -1.5 and Yes (Knock)


    Also, there will be a thread for winter forecasts, will get that up and running later today.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _______ 5.0 _ 13.0 _ -5.1 _ 070 _ 120 _ 7.9c, 1.4c and yes (Ballyhaise)

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,715 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal _______ 4.9 __ 11.5 __ -5.0 __ 095 __ 110 ___ 8.0, 1.0 and No snow


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 _______ 5.5 _ 14.0 _ -4.8 _ 090 _ 105 _and 8.5c, 1.0c and no snow :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    JCXBXC_______ 4.8 _ 12.2_ -6.4_ 090 _ 110 _ 9.8c, 4.6c and Nope


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 _______ 5.0 __ 11.5 __ -6.0 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 4.0, -2.5 and Yes (Mullingar)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 Lumi


    Lumi _______ 4.9 __ 12.5 __ -5.7 __ 90 __ 100 ___ 7.5, -2.0 No Snow


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts _______ 6.1 __ 13.5 __ -4.1 __ 085 __ 115 ___ 9.0, -0.5 and No


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,116 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _______ 5.1 __ 13.8 __ -4.6 __ 075 __ 115 ___ 4.2, -1.2 and No


  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit
    ___ 5.0 ___ 13.5 ___ -6.0 ___ 90 ___ 110 ___7.4 ___ -1.0 ___ No snow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,764 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire _______ 5.1 __ 11.4 __ -5.2 __ 085 __ 100 ___ 7.0, 2.0 No snow


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac____ 4.6 __ 14.5 __ -5.2 __ 097 __ 100 ___ 9.0, 1.5 and no


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public _______ 3.5 __ 12.9 __ -6.9 __ 087 __ 119 ___ 8.9, 1 no snow


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry_______ 5.8 __ 13.7 __ -5.9 __ 097__ 107___ 8.9 2.3 no snow


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner.........5.9........15.9........-5.3.........90........100.......8.5°,1.8°==>no snow


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _______ 5.7 __ 13.6 __ -6.6 __ 82 __ 96 ___ 9.9, 2.9, no snow


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    sdanseo _______ 5.0 __ 11.9 __ -6.0 __ 092 __ 111 ___ 5.1, -2.8 and Yes (Finner)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn _______ 5.6 __ 13.9 __ -6.0 __ 95 __ 100 ___ 10, 2.5 and No


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7 _______ 3. 8c __ 13.3 __ -11 __ 90__ 110___ 3.7, -2.3 and yes (Dublin AP)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa _______ 4.9 __ 12.9 __ -6.6 __ 101 __ 112 ___ 7.9, -0.5 and No


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _______ 4.8 __ 15.0 __ -8.0 __ 085 __ 117 ___ 6.5, 2.5 , Knock


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels 5.6 __ 12.6 __ -4.9 __ 82 __ 96 ___ 9.7, 2.8, No snow


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,565 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ___ 5.0 ___ 13.0 ___ -6.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 8.0 0.0 yes ( mount Dillon )


    Dead late again. Big hit incoming :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Casement -3.9 yesterday for openers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,212 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of Forecasts for December 2017

    FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ DubA 25th _ snow

    mickger844posts ___ 6.1 _ 13.5 _ --4.1 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 9.0, --0.5 ___ No
    MrSkinner _________5.9 _ 15.9 _ --5.3 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 8.5, +1.8 ___ No
    Pauldry ___________5.8 _ 13.7 _ --5.9 _ 097 _ 107 ___ 8.9, +2.3 ___ No
    Tae laidir _________ 5.7 _ 13.6 _ --6.6 _ 082 _ 096 ___ 9.9, +2.9 ___ No
    Jpmarn ___________5.6 _ 13.9 _ --6.0 _ 095 _ 100 ___10.0, +2.5 ___ No
    200motels ___ (-4) _ 5.6 _ 12.6 _ --4.9 _ 082 _ 096 ___ 9.7, +2.8 ___ No
    Sunflower3 ________5.5 _ 14.0 _ --4.8 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 8.5, +1.0 ___ No

    NormaL ___________5.4 _ 15.0 _ --6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.5, +2.0 ___ No

    DOCARCH _________5.1 _ 13.8 _ --4.6 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 4.2, --1.2 ___ No
    Rameire __________ 5.1 _ 11.4 _ --5.2 _ 085 _ 100 ___ 7.0, +2.0 ___ No
    Kindred Spirit ______5.0 _ 13.5 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 7.4, --1.0 ___ No
    sryanbruen ________5.0 _ 13.0 _ --5.1 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 7.9, +1.4 ___ Y, Bal'hse
    Rikand ___ (-10) ___ 5.0 _ 13.0 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 8.0, _0.0 ___ Y, MtDillon

    Con Sensus _______ 5.0 _ 13.3 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 8.0, +1.0 ___ No

    sdanseo __________ 5.0 _ 11.9 _ --6.0 _ 092 _ 111 ___ 5.1, --2.8 ___ Y, Finner
    Dasa29 ___________5.0 _ 11.5 _ --6.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 4.0, --2.5 ___ Y, Mull'gar
    Dacogawa __ (-2) __ 4.9 _ 12.9 _ --6.6 _ 101 _ 112 ___ 7.9, --0.5 ___ No
    Lumi _____________4.9 _ 12.5 _ --5.7 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 7.5, --2.0 ___ No
    Bsal _____________ 4.9 _ 11.5 _ --5.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 8.0, +1.0 ___ No
    waterways __ (-3) __ 4.8 _ 15.0 _ --8.0 _ 085 _ 117 ___ 6.5, +2.5 ___ Y, Knock
    JCXBXC___________ 4.8 _ 12.2 _ --6.4 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 9.8, +4.6 ___ No
    john mac__________ 4.6 _ 14.5 _ --5.2 _ 097 _ 100 ___ 9.0, +1.5 ___ No
    M.T. Cranium ______ 4.5 _ 13.5 _ --7.0 _ 080 _ 120 ___ 7.0, --1.5 ___ Y, Knock
    BLIZZARD7 __ (-1) __3.8 _ 13.3 _--11.0_ 090 _ 110 ___ 3.7, --2.3 ___ Y, DubA
    Joe Public _________ 3.5 _ 12.9 _ --6.9 _ 087 _ 119 ___ 8.9, +1.0 ___ No
    _________________________________________________________________

    23 entries including all 20 of our regulars, Con Sensus (median) is 12th ranked value, except that No prevails for s No w ... 16 chose no snow 24th-25th and 7 said sure why not, giving a variety of possible locations. Dasa29 you can add a location, it's only worth an extra point if you're right about snow in general.

    The consensus for the month looks to me rather average but with a nod to dry and sunny conditions for December which means not quite as dull or wet as usual.

    Good luck everyone, November scoring is updated and you can see your chances of catching the leaders (mickger844posts, MrSkinner and Pauldry) dependent on cold making a positive impact, if it's quite a mild month I think the outcome will be a done deal although the three of them could easily shuffle positions.

    A few of us think it will turn out rather cold on average. But for the first half it certainly looks volatile. Any deep sustained cold would be over the horizon for now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    dasa29 wrote: »
    Dasa29 _______ 5.0 __ 11.5 __ -6.0 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 4.0, -2.5 and Yes (Mullingar)

    Hi MT did you miss the Mullingar in the bonus part of my forecast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    A sweltering 14.1 inside Newport Furnace yesterday.
    And an even hotter 14.2 at Gurteen.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,212 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    I did somehow miss that, Dasa29, added to table now.

    Meanwhile, everyone, last day to enter the winter forecast contest, I will extend the deadline by one day as it's only six hours to the announced deadline (0300h Friday) so now it will be 0300h Saturday ... anyone already in can edit their forecasts to the deadline.

    This link will take you there:

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057813710


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,212 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    There are no reporting stations on high peaks in Ireland (AFAIK) but in Scotland, the Cairngorm reporting site had winds over 150 km/hr at times between 06z and 15z and a peak gust of 201 km/hr at 14z.

    Probably nowhere near that strong on high peaks in Ireland but it shows you how strong the wind is up there compared to down where people live.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,212 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After the first week of December (1-7) ...

    IMT on 6.8 which is 0.7 above normal. This will take a sharp drop over this coming second week. (maxima on the 7th were quite high as they run a 24-hour observing day, so the fall is just setting in today).

    PRC mostly the rain that fell on 6th into 7th was 63% of normal for the week.

    SUN at 86% (515/600 for later calculations) and that was a blend of quite sunny Cork and Shannon with the rest being closer to 50%.

    MAX was 14.2 C, and already higher than all but three of us and NormaL.

    MIN not likely to prevail was --3.9 C but so far nobody's guess is too high, mickger844posts (has to be more than 844 now?) is at --4.1 C our mildest guess.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Tae laidir wrote: »
    Casement -3.9 yesterday for openers.

    -3.9c at Mullingar for yesterday too.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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