December 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 5.4 C.

2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

6. For the BONUS question, our traditional prediction of MAX and MIN on Christmas Day at Dub (A) and (for 3 point super-bonus), will it snow at any location among the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website, and this will include 24 as well as 25 Dec. If you get this right on Yes or No, it's worth 2 points for yes verifying, a correct location is worth 1 more point, but no locations will bring in the "No" scores at 3.


Deadline for entries will be 0300h Friday 1st of December, with 1 point deductions for every 3h late to 1500h Saturday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 12 points accumulated to that time).

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Due to my current busy situation moving house etc, I am going to post my forecast early in case I forget.

MTC _______ 4.5 __ 13.5 __ -7.0 __ 080 __ 120 ___ 7.0, -1.5 and Yes (Knock)

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Also, there will be a thread for winter forecasts, will get that up and running later today.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _______ 5.0 _ 13.0 _ -5.1 _ 070 _ 120 _ 7.9c, 1.4c and yes (Ballyhaise)

Bsal

Bsal _______ 4.9 __ 11.5 __ -5.0 __ 095 __ 110 ___ 8.0, 1.0 and No snow

sunflower3

Sunflower3 _______ 5.5 _ 14.0 _ -4.8 _ 090 _ 105 _and 8.5c, 1.0c and no snow

JCX BXC

JCXBXC_______ 4.8 _ 12.2_ -6.4_ 090 _ 110 _ 9.8c, 4.6c and Nope

dasa29

Dasa29 _______ 5.0 __ 11.5 __ -6.0 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 4.0, -2.5 and Yes (Mullingar)

Lumi

Lumi _______ 4.9 __ 12.5 __ -5.7 __ 90 __ 100 ___ 7.5, -2.0 No Snow

mickger844posts

mickger844posts _______ 6.1 __ 13.5 __ -4.1 __ 085 __ 115 ___ 9.0, -0.5 and No

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _______ 5.1 __ 13.8 __ -4.6 __ 075 __ 115 ___ 4.2, -1.2 and No

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit
___ 5.0 ___ 13.5 ___ -6.0 ___ 90 ___ 110 ___7.4 ___ -1.0 ___ No snow.

rameire

Rameire _______ 5.1 __ 11.4 __ -5.2 __ 085 __ 100 ___ 7.0, 2.0 No snow

John mac

john mac____ 4.6 __ 14.5 __ -5.2 __ 097 __ 100 ___ 9.0, 1.5 and no

Joe Public

Joe Public _______ 3.5 __ 12.9 __ -6.9 __ 087 __ 119 ___ 8.9, 1 no snow

pauldry

Pauldry_______ 5.8 __ 13.7 __ -5.9 __ 097__ 107___ 8.9 2.3 no snow

mrskinner

Skinner.........5.9........15.9........-5.3.........90........100.......8.5°,1.8°==>no snow

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _______ 5.7 __ 13.6 __ -6.6 __ 82 __ 96 ___ 9.9, 2.9, no snow

sdanseo

sdanseo _______ 5.0 __ 11.9 __ -6.0 __ 092 __ 111 ___ 5.1, -2.8 and Yes (Finner)

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _______ 5.6 __ 13.9 __ -6.0 __ 95 __ 100 ___ 10, 2.5 and No

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7 _______ 3. 8c __ 13.3 __ -11 __ 90__ 110___ 3.7, -2.3 and yes (Dublin AP)

dacogawa

Dacogawa _______ 4.9 __ 12.9 __ -6.6 __ 101 __ 112 ___ 7.9, -0.5 and No

waterways

waterways _______ 4.8 __ 15.0 __ -8.0 __ 085 __ 117 ___ 6.5, 2.5 , Knock

200motels

200motels 5.6 __ 12.6 __ -4.9 __ 82 __ 96 ___ 9.7, 2.8, No snow

Rikand

Rikand ___ 5.0 ___ 13.0 ___ -6.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 8.0 0.0 yes ( mount Dillon )


Dead late again. Big hit incoming

Tae laidir

Casement -3.9 yesterday for openers.

M.T. Cranium

Table of Forecasts for December 2017

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ DubA 25th _ snow

mickger844posts ___ 6.1 _ 13.5 _ --4.1 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 9.0, --0.5 ___ No
MrSkinner _________5.9 _ 15.9 _ --5.3 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 8.5, +1.8 ___ No
Pauldry ___________5.8 _ 13.7 _ --5.9 _ 097 _ 107 ___ 8.9, +2.3 ___ No
Tae laidir _________ 5.7 _ 13.6 _ --6.6 _ 082 _ 096 ___ 9.9, +2.9 ___ No
Jpmarn ___________5.6 _ 13.9 _ --6.0 _ 095 _ 100 ___10.0, +2.5 ___ No
200motels ___ (-4) _ 5.6 _ 12.6 _ --4.9 _ 082 _ 096 ___ 9.7, +2.8 ___ No
Sunflower3 ________5.5 _ 14.0 _ --4.8 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 8.5, +1.0 ___ No

NormaL ___________5.4 _ 15.0 _ --6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.5, +2.0 ___ No

DOCARCH _________5.1 _ 13.8 _ --4.6 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 4.2, --1.2 ___ No
Rameire __________ 5.1 _ 11.4 _ --5.2 _ 085 _ 100 ___ 7.0, +2.0 ___ No
Kindred Spirit ______5.0 _ 13.5 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 7.4, --1.0 ___ No
sryanbruen ________5.0 _ 13.0 _ --5.1 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 7.9, +1.4 ___ Y, Bal'hse
Rikand ___ (-10) ___ 5.0 _ 13.0 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 8.0, _0.0 ___ Y, MtDillon

Con Sensus _______ 5.0 _ 13.3 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 8.0, +1.0 ___ No

sdanseo __________ 5.0 _ 11.9 _ --6.0 _ 092 _ 111 ___ 5.1, --2.8 ___ Y, Finner
Dasa29 ___________5.0 _ 11.5 _ --6.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 4.0, --2.5 ___ Y, Mull'gar
Dacogawa __ (-2) __ 4.9 _ 12.9 _ --6.6 _ 101 _ 112 ___ 7.9, --0.5 ___ No
Lumi _____________4.9 _ 12.5 _ --5.7 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 7.5, --2.0 ___ No
Bsal _____________ 4.9 _ 11.5 _ --5.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 8.0, +1.0 ___ No
waterways __ (-3) __ 4.8 _ 15.0 _ --8.0 _ 085 _ 117 ___ 6.5, +2.5 ___ Y, Knock
JCXBXC___________ 4.8 _ 12.2 _ --6.4 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 9.8, +4.6 ___ No
john mac__________ 4.6 _ 14.5 _ --5.2 _ 097 _ 100 ___ 9.0, +1.5 ___ No
M.T. Cranium ______ 4.5 _ 13.5 _ --7.0 _ 080 _ 120 ___ 7.0, --1.5 ___ Y, Knock
BLIZZARD7 __ (-1) __3.8 _ 13.3 _--11.0_ 090 _ 110 ___ 3.7, --2.3 ___ Y, DubA
Joe Public _________ 3.5 _ 12.9 _ --6.9 _ 087 _ 119 ___ 8.9, +1.0 ___ No
_________________________________________________________________

23 entries including all 20 of our regulars, Con Sensus (median) is 12th ranked value, except that No prevails for s No w ... 16 chose no snow 24th-25th and 7 said sure why not, giving a variety of possible locations. Dasa29 you can add a location, it's only worth an extra point if you're right about snow in general.

The consensus for the month looks to me rather average but with a nod to dry and sunny conditions for December which means not quite as dull or wet as usual.

Good luck everyone, November scoring is updated and you can see your chances of catching the leaders (mickger844posts, MrSkinner and Pauldry) dependent on cold making a positive impact, if it's quite a mild month I think the outcome will be a done deal although the three of them could easily shuffle positions.

A few of us think it will turn out rather cold on average. But for the first half it certainly looks volatile. Any deep sustained cold would be over the horizon for now.

dasa29

dasa29 wrote: »

Dasa29 _______ 5.0 __ 11.5 __ -6.0 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 4.0, -2.5 and Yes (Mullingar)

Hi MT did you miss the Mullingar in the bonus part of my forecast.

Tae laidir

A sweltering 14.1 inside Newport Furnace yesterday.
And an even hotter 14.2 at Gurteen.

M.T. Cranium

I did somehow miss that, Dasa29, added to table now.

Meanwhile, everyone, last day to enter the winter forecast contest, I will extend the deadline by one day as it's only six hours to the announced deadline (0300h Friday) so now it will be 0300h Saturday ... anyone already in can edit their forecasts to the deadline.

This link will take you there:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057813710

M.T. Cranium

There are no reporting stations on high peaks in Ireland (AFAIK) but in Scotland, the Cairngorm reporting site had winds over 150 km/hr at times between 06z and 15z and a peak gust of 201 km/hr at 14z.

Probably nowhere near that strong on high peaks in Ireland but it shows you how strong the wind is up there compared to down where people live.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week of December (1-7) ...

IMT on 6.8 which is 0.7 above normal. This will take a sharp drop over this coming second week. (maxima on the 7th were quite high as they run a 24-hour observing day, so the fall is just setting in today).

PRC mostly the rain that fell on 6th into 7th was 63% of normal for the week.

SUN at 86% (515/600 for later calculations) and that was a blend of quite sunny Cork and Shannon with the rest being closer to 50%.

MAX was 14.2 C, and already higher than all but three of us and NormaL.

MIN not likely to prevail was --3.9 C but so far nobody's guess is too high, mickger844posts (has to be more than 844 now?) is at --4.1 C our mildest guess.

sryanbruen

Tae laidir wrote: »

Casement -3.9 yesterday for openers.

-3.9c at Mullingar for yesterday too.

pauldry

-6.6c is the new monthly min Casement I think or was it Gurteen

dacogawa

pauldry wrote: »

-6.6c is the new monthly min Casement I think or was it Gurteen

And let's just leave that min there!

waterways

pauldry wrote: »

-6.6c is the new monthly min Casement I think or was it Gurteen

Yes Casement had -6.6, Gurteen reached -6.3 after leading with -5.8 the day before

M.T. Cranium

The IMT has fallen to 4.7 C after the cold spell, might edge down a little further before recovering after 18th.

M.T. Cranium

Here's the situation after two weeks ...

IMT on 4.5 C (4.46) with second week a cool 2.1 C which was 3.6 below normal. Figure on this to edge down to about 4.3 after Saturday then reach low 5's by Christmas Day, possibly staying just about in that area or falling back to 4.8-5.0 to end of month (from today's GFS run).

PRC has reached 113% of normal with this past week quite wet (163% on average). This appears likely to stay in a similar range with some opportunities ahead for heavy falls but also some dry spells.

SUN is now at 90% of normal with the second week quite average at 94% (562/600). This will likely improve somewhat towards Christmas but may then fall back below normal if the models are right about the parade of fronts to New Years.

MAX remains 14.2

MIN now -6.6 which is what Tae laidir and Dacogawa predicted. There are now four out of 23 forecasters who can use any further drops in MIN (seems unlikely) but two of us are probably happy enough with the --6.6.

pauldry

Shannon posted a 14.5c max as it got fair for an hour in the middle of the mild 19th.

John mac

pauldry wrote: »

Shannon posted a 14.5c max as it got fair for an hour in the middle of the mild 19th.

that will do me

M.T. Cranium

Update after three weeks ...

The IMT is now on 5.4 C and rising about 0.2 per day in this mild spell, as the third week averaged 7.2 (1.8 above average). That rise will likely slow for the next three days and after that, a colder trend may drag it back to around 5.2 for a finish.

PRC has fallen to 90% of normal as this past week has been quite dry (especially for a mild spell) with only 44% of the average for the period. I think the 90% may slowly inflate back towards normal as it looks relatively unsettled.

SUN has slipped back to 86% with this past week on 77.5% (465/600) -- Shannon and Dublin were above their average values and Casement close, but the other three closer to the west or south coasts were considerably below. I could imagine this rising slightly just because the late December normals are so low that any breaks will run up a good total.

MAX now 14.5 and MIN remains --6.6.

If I don't post again before the Christmas Day report, have a wonderful Christmas and stay out of trouble.

pauldry

"stay out of trouble."

I fear some trouble Stephens night as I slip on black ice and spill a tin of Guinness over a bouncer in Ballina.

Apart from that should be grand.

Hv a jolly Xmas across the pond n hope it doesnt go too low temperature wise for ye.

M.T. Cranium

I had a look at the guidance and at the moment it would appear that the Dublin (A) max will be above 10 and the min could be close to freezing by end of the 24h day, so let's say 10.5 and 0.0 as estimates for that, and I think the yes squad has a chance especially later in the day around Knock.

So with that in mind, if I go with these early estimates (5.2, 14.5, -6.6, 100, 100) for the five main elements, these would be the scores in play (gives you an idea in which way you hope I'm wrong in these estimates) ...

I did them in the order of the table then placed them in order.

Remember, these are hazy estimates, the PRC and SUN in particular could end up considerably different. I don't currently see any strong opportunities for MAX or MIN to shift and if MAX edges up then minimum progression will kick in anyway. At -6.6 there could be a bit of a boost for lower scores but it will be 50% of the usual boost as there are two unaided scores of 20/20.

NormaL __________ 89

Jpmarn ___________81
john mac__________80
Dacogawa __ 77-2 = 75
Kindred Spirit ______75

Con Sensus _______ 75

Pauldry ___________74
Tae laidir _________ 73
Sunflower3 ________72
mickger844posts ___ 71
M.T. Cranium ______ 70
Dasa29 ___________68
sdanseo __________ 67
waterways __ 70-3 = 67
JCXBXC___________ 66
Lumi _____________65
MrSkinner _________61
Rameire __________ 60
Bsal _____________ 58
sryanbruen ________57
Rikand _____66-10= 56
DOCARCH _________55
Joe Public _________55
200motels ___ 51-4=47
BLIZZARD7 __ 46-1=45

Not a very large spread in scoring, based on these assumptions, I think it's mostly the PRC and SUN that could help you gain on these numbers, so we'll see at end of the month how close those estimates were. I don't recall seeing NormaL leading any month before, there may have been one occasion though.

Joe Public

Dublin Airport 25th max 11.6 min 1.7 and no snow

M.T. Cranium

Well, not having much luck determining if snow fell at Knock on 25th as seems possible, there were pictures of snow at other higher locations and I noticed one hour with measurable precip and a temperature of 2 C. Because of the holiday, no observers. I am inclined to say no snow for the bonus but if anyone has any visual evidence from anywhere reasonably close to Knock, may change that.

As Joe said above, Dublin 11.6 and 1.7 for max and min.

Scoring for the temperature portion (10 points) will be as follows (the numbers in brackets are the total error for max and min, JPmarn was closest on max at 10.0 and MrSkinner closest to the min at 1.8 ...:

JPmarn (2.4), john mac (2.8), Tae laidir (2.9) _____ 10
200motels (3.0), MrSkinner (3.2) ________________ 9
Pauldry (3.3) Joe Public (3.4), NormaL (3.4) ________8
Sunflower3 (3.8), sryanbruen (4.0) _______________7
Con Sensus (4.3) and Bsal (4.3), JCXBXC (4.7) _____ 6
mickger844posts (4.8), Rameire (4.9) ____________ 5
Rikand (5.3), waterways and Dacogawa (5.9) ______ 4
Kindred Spirit (6.9) ___________________________ 3
Lumi and M.T. Cranium (7.8) ___________________ 2
DOCARCH (10.3), sdanseo (11.0) ________________1
Dasa29 (11.8), BLIZZARD7 (11.9) _______________ 0

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT on 5.5, the fourth week had four very mild days followed by three rather cold ones, it averaged out at 5.9 C which is 0.6 above average. I now figure this will finish on 5.3 or 5.4.

MAX remains 14.5 and MIN remains --6.6, coldest this past few days appears to be around -4.

PRC has edged up to 94% of normal, with this past week at 105%. Look for this to finish almost exactly on normal as the last three days will probably be wet enough.

SUN has edged back down to 88% of normal with this past week managing 83.5% of normal (501/6) ... this could finish on 90% if the sun makes longish appearances on the 31st.

These slightly revised values plus the determined bonus scoring (I think we will have to go with "no" which was different from the estimates in the table above) will change scores somewhat from the table I posted earlier. In any case, I think most of the contenders for the annual awards said no, so they would all improve by the same six points as a result of switching that around, and persons such as myself would sink further into the depths.

Rather than reworking that table, I will just wait for the final results which I guess will be available on the 3rd of January.

M.T. Cranium

So according to the Monthly Data portion of the met.ie website,

IMT was 5.6 (all those mild readings in the south past three days kept it from falling)

PRC appears to be close to 108% (I will confirm this from MS)

SUN has probably stalled around 90% (some better amounts yesterday but probably no big impact)

MAX was likely 14.5 and MIN --6.6

Rather than speculating on scores, I will wait for the MS to appear on 3rd, if so, look for final December and then annual scoring reports.

Happy new year to all, in case you didn't already enter, January 2018 thread is open and it looks like most have entered already, new talent always welcome too ... and the late penalties are relaxed in general for 2018 (see post 1 in Jan thread) but in particular are not biting very hard for January, we just passed -1 and will only reach -5 by 1500h tomorrow.

Tae laidir

I have copied the Annual Scoring Tables from 2012 to 2016.
When you have finished counting Angels, perhaps you may wish to find yourself.


Annual Scoring Table 2012

(MTC)
Rank*. Forecaster ... J .. F ..M .. A .. M ..J .. J .. A ..S .. O .. N ..D .. Yr Total .. Contest (rank)

1 .. Sponge Bob ......52..50..50..46..52..64..77..41..46..48..87..79 ..... 692 ... 605 (1)
2 .. Lumi ................62..45..28..43..44..57..54..60..66..62..77..72 ..... 670 ... 599 (2)
3 .. Jerry Seinfeld.....56..48..55..46..51..49..69..39..73..30..74..64 ..... 654 ... 585 (3)
5 .. John mac .........62..53..26..53..46..42..49..68..42..48..79..76 ..... 644 ... 576 (4)
4 .. rameire ............65..44..53..56..41..43..64..53..53..58..53..65 ..... 648 ... 564 (5)
7 .. Hammer Archer .52..41..22..35..39..51..69..52..72..55..64..58 ..... 610 ... 553 (6)

7 .. Con Sensus ......58..28..31..46..48..41..54..50..58..58..84..54 ..... 610 ... 551 (7)

10. jambofc ............26..34..22..60..59..40..56..69..56..33..74..67 ..... 596 ... 548 (7)
9 .. nilhg ................67..47..33..55..59..42..18..59..47..40..57..74 ..... 598 ... 547 (8)
8 .. Tae laidir ..........41..44..31..62..57..75..32..43..49..44..78..45 ..... 601 ... 538 (9)
6 .. H2UMrsRobinson.70..54..38..43..43..47..54..45..52..41..58..71 ..... 616 ... 537 (10-t)
13. pauldry .............61..48..45..31..49..56..49..22..39..61..61..68 ..... 590 ... 537 (10-t)
12. kindredspirit ......60..48..39..22..50..35..41..40..42..61..80..75 ..... 593 ... 536 (12)
14. Rickylovesuall ....42..52..30..13..51..36..66..58..55..51..80..44 ..... 578 ... 535 (13)
11. waterways .......58..29..53..33..47..49..52..50..55..44..59..66 ..... 595 ... 533 (14-t)
15. MiNdGaM3 ........33..11..31..45..70..56..64..43..53..56..71..42 ..... 575 ... 533 (14-t)
20. snowstreams .....37..10..28..37..51..48..49..49..67..52..83..56 ..... 567 ... 529 (16)
18. Harps ...............51..25..18..35..47..35..36..73..57..51..78..64 ..... 570 ... 527 (17-t)
16. DOCARCH .........20..27..32..40..41..52..47..65..66..41..61..82 ..... 574 ... 527 (17-t)
18. mickger844posts 62..26..38..27..40..46..62..45..46..77..48..53 ..... 570 ... 517 (19)
17. jd ....................50..28..47..44..53..35..44..48..64..53..71..35 ..... 572 ... 509 (20)
26. Danno ..............48..20..--..44..50..45..35..39..51..69..65..60 ..... 526 ... 506 (21)
22. delw ................57..57..15..25..39..49..52..41..36..42..65..63 ..... 541 ... 501 (22)
21. homolumo .........48..25..24..67..58..19..32..48..55..40..67..59 ..... 542 ... 499 (23)
33. lostinashford .....--..--.. 37..34..40..52..59..40..59..44..67..57 ..... 489 ... 489 (24)
25. M.T. Cranium ....34..41..21..55..65..46..47..18..39..44..57..60 ..... 527 ... 488 (25)
28. cherryghost ......56..51..11..12..44..35..36..53..59..47..65..40 ..... 509 ... 486 (26)
23. okla .................57..21..31..44..51..33..55..63..46..33..62..37 ..... 537 ... 481 (27)
27. SeaFields .........33..15..57..44..36..35..63..49..29..32..58..66 ..... 517 ... 473 (28)
30. Joe Public .........42..21..08..53..66..30..38..47..30..50..75..40 ..... 500 ... 471 (29)
24. traecy1 ............47..36..33..34..47..52..40..44..40..44..63..56 ..... 536 ... 469 (30)
35. Strasser ...........--..20..52..38..29..16..47..43..46..66..61..66 ..... 484 ... 468 (31)
32. dacogawa ........50..14..17..37..59..19..48..48..54..55..50..41 ..... 492 ... 461 (32)
37. talkabout ..........42..26..20..05..58..32..41..66..--..44..75..56 ..... 465 ... 460 (33)
31. 200motels ........56..69..18..31..40..26..53..40..25..24..64..52 ..... 498 ... 456 (34)
29. Iancar29 ..........33..19..26..45..52..32..25..66..39..61..73..30 ..... 501 ... 455 (35)
36. NIALL D ............29..20..28..44..42..32..--..62..63..47..70..36 ..... 473 ... 453 (36)
34. dasa29 ............44..30..16..44..33..29..50..42..58..37..64..41 ..... 488 ... 443 (37)
39. redsunset .........34..11..12..60..41..48..33..16..--..--..40..20 ..... 315 ... 315 (38)

Annual scoring report 2013

rank/
best 10 _ Forecaster _______ J __ F __ M __ A __ M __ J __ J __ A __ S __ O __ N __ D __ Total
01 608 Con Sensus _______75 _ 69 _ 24 _ 60 _ 54 _ 76 _ 44 _ 55 _ 58 _ 59 _ 54 _ 40 __ 668 (2)

01 602 Tae laidir ________ 73 _ 68 _ 38 _ 59 _ 54 _ 55 _ 59 _ 47 _ 65 _ 75 _ 43 _ 47 __ 683 (1)
02 579 harps ___________ 73 _ 61 _ 47 _ 48 _ 53 _ 70 _ 42 _ 57 _ 61 _ 67 _ 32 _ 35 __ 646 (2)
03 566 kindredspirit ______66 _ 34 _ 55 _ 51 _ 42 _ 66 _ 51 _ 65 _ 60 _ 55 _ 55 _ 41 __ 641 (3)
04 560 dasa29___________35 _ 76 _ 69 _ 61 _ 69 _ 68 _ 21 _ 42 _ 59 _ 31 _ 50 _ 29 __ 610 (5)
05 557 omicron _________ 47 _ 49 _ 22 _ 50 _ 66 _ 67 _ --- _ 72 _ 45 _ 51 _ 52 _ 58 __ 579 (13)
06 553 Bsal _____________54 _ 35 _ 53 _ 38 _ 73 _ 75 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 _ 47 _ 38 _ 62 __ 625 (4)
07 545 Pauldry __________59 _ 60 _ 34 _ 53 _ 51 _ 57 _ 32 _ 42 _ 51 _ 72 _ 14 _ 66 __ 591 (10t)
08 541 jpmarn __________ 36 _ 47 _ 23 _ 35 _ 54 _ 59 _ 65 _ 36 _ 54 _ 61 _ 45 _ 84 __ 599 (6)
08 541 traecy.1 _________ 79 _ 36 _ 21 _ 54 _ 29 _ 56 _ 50 _ 33 _ 60 _ 62 _ 67 _ 44 __ 591 (10t)
10 527 DOCARCH________ 42 _ 50 _ 36 _ 73 _ 30 _ 70 _ 60 _ 39 _ 56 _ 60 _ 37 _ 40 __ 593 (8t)
11 525 mickger844posts __ 35 _ 67 _ 40 _ 54 _ 37 _ 49 _ 66 _ 39 _ 60 _ 67 _ 46 _ 33 __ 593 (8t)
12 524 Jerry Seinfeld_____ 69 _ 54 _ 45 _ 60 _ 52 _ 74 _ 24 _ 44 _ 59 _ 43 _ --- _ --- __ 524 (21)
13 522 200motels________ 54 _ 61 _ 36 _ 52 _ 49 _ 25 _ 33 _ 46 _ 67 _ 58 _ 44 _ 55 __ 580 (12)
14 521 rameire__________ 60 _ 29 _ 44 _42 _ 56 _ 80 _ 18 _ 65 _ 39 _ 47 _ 45 _ 43 __ 568 (15)
14 521 John mac_________50 _ 23 _ 21 _ --- _ 64 _ 94 _ 31 _ 60 _ 50 _ 44 _ 65 _ 40 __ 542 (20)
16 518 nilhg ____________44 _ 47 _ 41 _ 50 _ 44 _ 51 _ 76 _ 54 _ 37 _ 45 _ 46 _ 61 __ 596 (7)
17 510 talkabout ________ 52 _ 58 _ 31 _ 44 _ 44 _ 67 _ 43 _ 43 _ 54 _ 30 _ 68 _ 37 __ 571 (14)
18 500 Joe Public ________ 25 _ 58 _59 _ 35 _ 21 _ 44 _ 62 _ 55 _ 57 _ 49 _ 56 _ 23 __ 544 (19)
19 499 homolumo _______ 69 _ 72 _ 40 _ 50 _ 31 _ 67 _ 27 _ 35 _ 73 _ 35 _ --- _ 11 __ 510 (22)
20 496 Rikand __________ 41 _ 48 _ 18 _ 56 _ 45 _ 75 _ 38 _ 42 _ 48 _ 38 _ 65 _ 33 __ 547 (17t)
21 490 dacogawa________ 51 _ 56 _ 35 _ 43 _ 38 _ 51 _ 40 _ 44 _ 76 _ 37 _ 54 _ 29 __ 554 (16)
22 486 okla ____________ 52 _ 43 _ 47 _ 60 _ 45 _ 54 _ 38 _ 17 _ --- _ 69 _ 45 _ 33 __ 503 (23)
22 486 M.T. Cranium _____ 34 _ 39 _ 31 _ 52 _ 47 _ 48 _ 52 _ 40 _ 55 _ 54 _ 65 _ 30 __ 547 (17t)
24 480 waterways _______ 57 _ 70 _ 21 _ 45 _ 41 _ 43 _ 14 _ --- _ 73 _ 51 _ 36 _ 43 __ 494 (24)
25 472 Strasser _________ 69 _ 38 _ 28 _ 54 _ -- _ 43 _ 28 _ 72 _ 38 _ 44 _ 58 _ --- __ 472 (28)
26 464 jd ______________ 49 _ 67 _ 14 _ 46 _ 36 _ 56 _ 31 _ 47 _ 59 _ 43 _ -- _ 30 __ 478 (27)
27 463 lostinashford _____ 27 _ 43 _ 29 _ 39 _ 58 _ 73 _ 50 _ 38 _ 57 _ 35 _ 41 _ --- __ 490 (25)
28 444 Seafields ________ 35 _ 33 _ 16 _ 49 _ 50 _ 56 _ 36 _ 44 _ 46 _ 26 _ 52 _ 43 __ 486 (26)
29 437 snowstreams______ -- _ 54 _ 29 _ 36 _ 57 _ 50 _ 28 _ 46 _ 46 _ 66 _ 16 _ 25 __ 453 (29)
30 407 delw_____________46 _ 56 _ 66 _ 34 _ 75 _ -- _ 26 _ 21 _ 47 _ 13 _ 23 _ --- __ 407 (31)
31 394 H2UMrsRobinson __ 41 _ 36 _ 22 _ 44 _ 39 _ 10 _ 32 _ 25 _ 46 _ 57 _ 48 _ 26 __ 426 (30)

Annual Scores 2014

Rank _ Forecaster ____ J __ F __ M __ A __ M __ J __ J __ A __ S __ O __ N __ D ___ TOTAL __ Best 10/12 (rank)

01 _Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 _ 83 _ 66 _ 58 _ 70 _ 46 _ 73 _ 75 _ 67 _ 79__844____740 (1)
01 _rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 _ 78 _ 51 _ 69 _ 75 _ 51 _ 55 _ 65 _ 53 _ 77__791____689 (1)
02 _harps __________ 57 _ 63 _ 71 _ 74 _ 66 _ 72 _ 65 _ 68 _ --- _ 49 _ 71_ 81__737____688 (2)
06 _Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 _ 73 _ 60 _ 61 _ 34 _ 60 _ 60 _ 26 _ 76 _ 55 _ 57__711____651 (3)
05 _omicron ________ 70 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 _ 41 _ 49 _ 40 _ 30 _ 71 _ 62 _ 69 _ 72__713____643 (4)
03 _kindredspirit _____67 _ 49 _ 69 _ 68 _ 52 _ 60 _ 69 _ 47 _ 38 _ 72 _ 41 _ 88 __720____641 (5)
08 _mickger844posts _ 69 _ 53 _ 56 _ 64 _ 54 _ 41 _ 60 _ 25 _ 69 _ 77 _ 66 _ 60__694____628 (6)
07 _Tae laidir _______ 46 _ 85 _ 38 _ 63 _ 76 _ 62 _ 51 _ 57 _ 36 _ 46 _ 80 _ 60__700____626 (7)
09 _pauldry _________62 _ 69 _ 50 _ 69 _ 63 _ 40 _ 55 _ 66 _ 58 _ 47 _ 34 _ 77__690____616 (8)
04 _John mac _______ 67 _ 53 _ 61 _ 50 _ 50 _ 60 _ 64 _ 52 _ 69 _ 62 _ 75 _ 52__715____615 (9)
10 _jpmarn _________61 _ 45 _ 60 _ 72 _ 74 _ 47 _ 43 _ 34 _ 68 _ 76 _ 57 _ 52__689____612 (10)
11 _dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 _ 66 _ 61 _ 32 _ 43 _ 48 _ 55 _ 35 _ 72 _ 72 _ 77 __666____599 (11)
18 _jd _____________ 60 _ 58 _ 55 _ 75 _ ---_ --- _ 67 _ 31 _ 69 _ 51 _ 50 _ 80 __596____596 (12)
14 _waterways ______ 60 _ 74 _ 70 _ 40 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 _ 30 _ 63 _ 50 _ 48 _ 77 __662____595 (13)
17 _okla ___________ 59 _ --- _ 61 _ 49 _ 59 _ 54 _ 53 _ 56 _ 57 _ 56 _ 71 _ 63 __638____589 (14)
12 _DOCARCH _______54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 79 _ 38 _ 54 _ 68 _ 43 _ 51 _ 57 _ 41 _ 73 __664____585 (15)
13 _rameire ________ 54 _ 72 _ 51 _ 49 _ 41 _ 56 _ 46 _ 45 _ 62 _ 65 _ 71 _ 51 __663____577 (16)
15 _dasa 29 ________ 61 _ 59 _ 60 _ 40 _ 57 _ 56 _ 56 _ 39 _ 49 _ 65 _ 55 _ 51 __648____569 (17)
17 _200 motels ______50 _ 71 _ 62 _ 51 _ 39 _ 47 _ 38 _ 33 _ 59 _ 71 _ 65 _ 51 __637____566 (18)
20 _lostinashford_____--- _ 51 _ 79 _ 45 _ 45 _ 65 _ 62 _ 36 _ 57 _ 59 _ 41 _ 50 __590____554 (19)
18 _Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 _ 50 _ 44 _ 10 _ 42 _ 52 _ 45 _ 58 _ 45 _ 61 _ 71 __596____544 (20)
21 _M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 _ 58 _ 56 _ 26 _ 31 _ 62 _ 32 _ 30 _ 60 _ 52 _ 47 __579____523 (21)

Annual Scores 2015
FORECASTER ______ Jan_ Feb_Mar_ Apr_ May_Jun_ Jul_ Aug_Sep_Oct _Nov _ Dec __ 2015 Total (rank) _________________________________________________________________________ best 10/12 (rank)

Jpmarn ____________64 _ 57 _ 71 _ 78 _ 82 _ 67 _ 44 _ 48 _ 52 _ 70 _ 80 _ 31 __ 744 (3) ____ 669 (1)

Con Sensus ________ 70 _ 71 _ 63 _ 65 _ 58 _ 62 _ 55 _ 69 _ 60 _ 79 _ 70 _ 47 __ 769 (1) ____ 667 (2)

M.T. Cranium _______68 _ 17 _ 71 _ 86 _ 62 _ 70 _ 46 _ 61 _ 59 _ 67 _ 68 _ 49 __ 724 (6) ____ 661 (2)
Lumi ______________68 _ 72 _ 59 _ 66 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _ 78 _ 58 _ 74 _ 65 _ 49 __ 761 (1) ____ 659 (3)
MrSkinner __________--- _ 71 _ 85 _ 54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 61 _ 78 _ 57 _ 71 _ 70 _ 52 __ 705 (12) ___ 658 (4)
Rikand ____________ 84 _ 59 _ 48 _ 73 _ 54 _ 66 _ 51 _ 57 _ 57 _ 78 _ 49 _ 69 __ 745 (2) ____ 648 (5)
sunflower3 _________ 69 _ 61 _ 59 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 54 _ 72 _ 63 _ 67 _ 78 _ 47 __ 737 (4) ____ 646 (6)
dasa29 ____________ 47 _ 69 _ 67 _ 45 _ 57 _ 57 _ 70 _ 76 _ 64 _ 73 _ 61 _ 41 __ 727 (5) ____ 641 (7)
mickger844posts ____ 50 _ 90 _ 53 _ 61 _ 45 _ 57 _ 28 _ 67 _ 69 _ 75 _ 55 _ 58 __ 708 (9t) ___ 635 (8)
Schadenfreudia ______61 _ 67 _ 53 _ 60 _ 58 _ 36 _ 38 _ 75 _ 52 _ 73 _ 90 _ 45 __ 708 (9t) ___ 634 (9)
rameire ___________ 55 _ 40 _ 46 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _ 56 _ 79 _ 79 _ 80 _ 66 _ 37 __ 710 (8) ____ 633 (10)
Tae laidir __________ 33 _ 60 _ 46 _ 68 _ 68 _ 56 _ 74 _ 60 _ 61 _ 64 _ 75 _ 43 __ 708 (9t) ____ 632 (11)
lostinashford _______ 56 _ --- _ 53 _ 64 _ 74 _ 62 _ 55 _ 52 _ 66 _ 76 _ 61 _ 61 __ 680 (17t) ___ 628 (12)
Bsal ______________ 77 _ 55 _ 68 _ 50 _ 57 _ 71 _ 48 _ 55 _ 61 _ 77 _ 54 _ 44 __ 717 (7) _____ 625 (13)

Norma L (*) ________ 62 _ 70 _ 66 _ 73 _ 44 _ 52 _ 66 _ 55 _ 62 _ 69 _ 47 _ 29 __ 695 (13) ____ 622 (14)

DOCARCH __________75 _ 79 _ 40 _ 64 _ 36 _ 65 _ 42 _ 52 _ 68 _ 83 _ 51 _ 36 __ 691 (15) ____ 619 (t14)
dacogawa __________48 _ 62 _ 63 _ 77 _ 58 _ --- _ 62 _ 43 _ 46 _ 80 _ 80 _ 37 __ 656 (20) ____ 619 (t14)
John mac __________ 73 _ 55 _ 58 _ 60 _ 50 _ 50 _ 69 _ 55 _ 52 _ 75 _ 64 _ 33 __ 694 (14) ____ 611 (16)
jd ________________ 72 _ 61 _ 68 _ 62 _ 31 _ 50 _ 53 _ 59 _ 44 _ 74 _ 63 _ 43 __ 680 (17t) ___ 606 (t17)
omicron ____________41 _ 77 _ 40 _ 67 _ 49 _ 36 _ 42 _ 55 _ 68 _ 71 _ 77 _ 59 __ 682 (16) ___ 606 (t17)
Pauldry ____________ 51 _ 48 _ 70 _ 51 _ 67 _ 61 _ 58 _ 60 _ 67 _ 59 _ 58 _ 46 __ 696 (13) ___ 602 (19)
200motels __________30 _ --- _ 59 _ 65 _ 58 _ 40 _ 35 _ 49 _ 71 _ 56 _ 63 _ 51 __ 628 (22) ___ 598 (20)
Joe Public __________ 69 _ 42 _ 64 _ 72 _ 39 _ 54 _ 69 _ 44 _ 43 _ 71 _ 66 _ 41 __ 674 (19) ___ 594 (21)
kindredspirit ________ 63 _ 57 _ 52 _ 59 _ 47 _ 60 _ 61 _ 56 _ --- _ 70 _ 56 _ 50 __ 631 (21) ___ 584 (22)
Harps _____________ 69 _ 57 _ 34 _ 70 _ 45 _ 70 _ 45 _ 61 _ 57 _ 69 _ --- _ --- __ 577 (23) ___ 577 (23)
Norma L (no *) ______ 53 _ 70 _ 56 _ 65 _ 37 _ 41 _ 29 _ 55 _ 69 _ 51 _ 38 _ 15 __ 579 (23) ___ 535 (24)
waterways __________--- _ 70 _ 58 _ 58 _ 40 _ 53 _ 32 _ 63 _ 52 _ 38 _ --- _ 56 __ 520 (24) ___ 520 (24)

Annual scoring Jan to Dec 2016

best 10 of 12 ___________________________________________________________ all months

rank/score_FORECASTER _ Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep_Oct_Nov_Dec __ TOTAL SCORE (rank)

01 717 sunflower3 _____ 72 _ 71 _ 81 _ 43 _ 61 _ 63 _ 74 _ 73 _ 62 _ 71 _ 42 _ 89 __ 802 (2)
02 702 MrSkinner______ 83 _ 66 _ 64 _ 58 _ 73 _ 67 _ 71 _ 69 _ 58 _ 65 _ 65 _ 79 __ 818 (1)

03 698 _ Con Sensus ___ 73 _ 75 _ 77 _ 70 _ 67 _ 57 _ 65 _ 68 _ 65 _ 77 _ 49 _ 61 __ 804 (2)

03 689 Lumi __________ 71 _ 72 _ 89 _ 59 _ 65 _ 60 _ 57 _ 74 _ 46 _ 76 _ 33 _ 66 __ 768 (4)
04 672 Dacogawa ______ 52 _ 58 _ 89 _ 50 _ 75 _ 47 _ 66 _ 59 _ 61 _ 74 _ 87 _ 51 __ 769 (3)
05 667 Tae laidir _______86 _ 76 _ 76 _ 46 _ 47 _ 53 _ 57 _ 72 _ 55 _ 69 _ 38 _ 76 __ 751 (6)
06 663 waterways______ 75 _ 75 _ 58 _ 66 _ 75 _ 75 _ 72 _ 50 _ 60 _ 57 _ 40 _ 41 __ 744 (8t)
07 655 Joe Public ______ 28 _ 63 _ 65 _ 72 _ 63 _ 59 _ 62 _ 49 _ 72 _ 70 _ 60 _ 69 __ 732 (10)
08 653 M.T. Cranium ____46 _ 62 _ 78 _ 66 _ 69 _ 45 _ 58 _ 50 _ 57 _ 63 _ 88 _ 62 __ 744 (8t)
09 651 Rameire ________69 _ 60 _ 70 _ 72 _ 59 _ 63 _ 55 _ 59 _ 63 _ 80 _ 50 _ 56 __ 756 (5)
10 649 sryanbruen _____ 27 _ 63 _ 52 _ 76 _ 65 _ 72 _ 70 _ 76 _ 62 _ 72 _ 40 _ 41 __ 716 (12t)

16 649 Norma L _______ 52 _ 65 _ 70 _ 57 _ 71 _ 61 _ 73 _ 55 _ 46 _ 64 _ 49 _ 81 __ 744 (8t)

11 647 mickger844posts_ 78 _ 63 _ 89 _ 68 _ 79 _ 59 _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ 68 _ 36 _ 42 __ 683 (16)
12 646 DOCARCH ______ 53 _ 62 _ 61 _ 71 _ 71 _ 58 _ 75 _ 62 _ 46 _ 71 _ 57 _ 58 __ 745 (7)
13 640 Pauldry_________53 _ 69 _ 45 _ 80 _ 56 _ 45 _ 55 _ 65 _ 68 _ 60 _ 66 _ 68 __ 730 (11)
14 630 JD_____________69 _ 77 _ 32 _ 71 _ 61 _ 45 _ 67 _ 47 _ 60 _ 62 _ 61 _ 55 __ 707 (15)
15 628 Jpmarn ________ 64 _ 60 _ 47 _ 75 _ 73 _ 51 _ 55 _ 37 _ 81 _ 58 _ 51 _ 60 __ 712 (14)
16 623 Rikand _________67 _ 76 _ 54 _ 54 _ 73 _ 60 _ 52 _ 60 _ 41 _ 71 _ 55 _ 53 __ 716 (12t)
17 615 Dasa29 ________ 66 _ 58 _ 67 _ 53 _ 56 _ 53 _ 49 _ 75 _ 60 _ 78 _ 27 _ 33 __ 675 (18)
18 614 Bsal ___________65 _ 66 _ 66 _ 60 _ 53 _ 45 _ 52 _ 68 _ 61 _ 73 _ 23 _ 50 __ 682 (17)
19 610 200motels ______46 _ 68 _ 74 _ 61 _ 70 _ 22 _ 66 _ 55 _ 68 _ 37 _ 41 _ 61 __ 669 (20)
20 601 John mac _______72 _ 57 _ 36 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 50 _ 66 _ 60 _ 83 _ 38 _ 46 __ 675 (19)
21 590 kindredspirit ____ --- _ 35 _ 65 _ 58 _ 61 _ 41 _ 79 _ 79 _ 49 _ 66 _ 48 _ 44 __ 625 (21)

M.T. Cranium

Looks like my eyesight has been improving then over that period.

M.T. Cranium

The final values for December have now been confirmed with the help of the Monthly Summary. They turned out to be as estimated earlier,

IMT 5.6 __ MAX 14.5 __ MIN --6.6 __ PRC 108% __ SUN 90%
and the bonus scoring was discussed in an earlier post.

So here are the final scores for December. The forecasts appear (once more) below the scoring table.


Scoring for December 2017

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _BONUS_snow___TOTAL


NormaL ___________23 _ 17*_ 19 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 08 ___ 3 ______ 90

Jpmarn ___________25 _ 15*_ 14 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 10 ___ 3 ______ 86
Tae laidir _________ 24 _ 12*_ 20 _ 06 _ 09 ___ 10 ___ 3 ______ 84
Pauldry ___________23 _ 13*_ 13 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 08 ___ 3 ______ 79
john mac__________15 _ 20 __06 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 10 ___ 3 ______ 73
Sunflower3 ________24 _ 17*_ 02 _ 09 _ 07 ___ 07 ___ 3 ______ 69
Dacogawa __ (-2) __ 18 _ 07*_ 20 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 04 ___ 3 _ 71-2=69

Con Sensus _______ 19 _ 09*_ 14 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 06 ___ 3 ______ 66

Kindred Spirit ______19 _ 11*_ 14 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 03 ___ 3 ______ 65
MrSkinner _________22 _ 07*_ 07 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 09 ___ 3 ______ 65
JCXBXC___________ 17 _ 02*_ 18 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 06 ___ 3 ______ 61
200motels ___ (-4) _ 25 _ 03*_ 03 _ 06 _ 09 ___ 09 ___ 3 _ 58-4=54
Dasa29 ___________19 _ 01*_ 14 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 00 ___ 0 ______ 54
Lumi _____________18 _ 02*_ 11 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 02 ___ 3 ______ 53
waterways __ (-3) __ 17 _ 17*_ 06 _ 07 _ 05 ___ 04 ___ 0 _ 56-3=53
M.T. Cranium ______ 14 _ 11*_ 16 _ 06 _ 04 ___ 02 ___ 0 ______ 53
sdanseo __________ 19 _ 01*_ 14 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 01 ___ 0 ______ 51
mickger844posts ___ 20 _ 11*_ 00 _ 07 _ 05 ___ 05 ___ 3 ______ 51
Rameire __________ 20 _ 01*_ 06 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 05 ___ 3 ______ 50
Bsal _____________ 18 _ 01*_ 04 _ 11 _ 06 ___ 06 ___ 3 ______ 49
Joe Public _________04 _ 05*_ 17 _ 08 _ 04 ___ 08 ___ 3 ______ 49
DOCARCH _________20 _ 14*_ 00 _ 04 _ 05 ___ 01 ___ 3 ______ 47
Rikand ___ (-10) ___ 19 _ 06*_ 14 _ 09 _ 04 ___ 04 ___ 0 _56-10=46
sryanbruen ________19 _ 06*_ 05 _ 02 _ 04 ___ 07 ___ 0 ______ 43
BLIZZARD7 __ (-1) __07 _ 09*_ 00 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 00 ___ 0 _ 31-1=30
____________________________________________________________

*Lower end and all but highest of MAX scores were too low for minimum progression, however, due to high score being 20/20, boosts were cut in half for those indicated.

Congrats to JPmarn, Tae laidir and Pauldry who led the way, vanquished Con Sensus (along with several others) only to find NormaL at the finish line ahead of them this time. There's always something ...

... and as I have stayed up super-late to watch the U.S. storm and get this table posted, I will have to sleep for a while now before tackling the annual results, so look for those about 7 p.m. or later, I would imagine.

---

The Forecasts for December 2017 ...


FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ DubA 25th _ snow

mickger844posts ___ 6.1 _ 13.5 _ --4.1 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 9.0, --0.5 ___ No
MrSkinner _________5.9 _ 15.9 _ --5.3 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 8.5, +1.8 ___ No
Pauldry ___________5.8 _ 13.7 _ --5.9 _ 097 _ 107 ___ 8.9, +2.3 ___ No
Tae laidir _________ 5.7 _ 13.6 _ --6.6 _ 082 _ 096 ___ 9.9, +2.9 ___ No
Jpmarn ___________5.6 _ 13.9 _ --6.0 _ 095 _ 100 ___10.0, +2.5 ___ No
200motels ___ (-4) _ 5.6 _ 12.6 _ --4.9 _ 082 _ 096 ___ 9.7, +2.8 ___ No
Sunflower3 ________5.5 _ 14.0 _ --4.8 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 8.5, +1.0 ___ No

NormaL ___________5.4 _ 15.0 _ --6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.5, +2.0 ___ No

DOCARCH _________5.1 _ 13.8 _ --4.6 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 4.2, --1.2 ___ No
Rameire __________ 5.1 _ 11.4 _ --5.2 _ 085 _ 100 ___ 7.0, +2.0 ___ No
Kindred Spirit ______5.0 _ 13.5 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 7.4, --1.0 ___ No
sryanbruen ________5.0 _ 13.0 _ --5.1 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 7.9, +1.4 ___ Y, Bal'hse
Rikand ___ (-10) ___ 5.0 _ 13.0 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 8.0, _0.0 ___ Y, MtDillon

Con Sensus _______ 5.0 _ 13.3 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 8.0, +1.0 ___ No

sdanseo __________ 5.0 _ 11.9 _ --6.0 _ 092 _ 111 ___ 5.1, --2.8 ___ Y, Finner
Dasa29 ___________5.0 _ 11.5 _ --6.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 4.0, --2.5 ___ Y, Mull'gar
Dacogawa __ (-2) __ 4.9 _ 12.9 _ --6.6 _ 101 _ 112 ___ 7.9, --0.5 ___ No
Lumi _____________4.9 _ 12.5 _ --5.7 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 7.5, --2.0 ___ No
Bsal _____________ 4.9 _ 11.5 _ --5.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 8.0, +1.0 ___ No
waterways __ (-3) __ 4.8 _ 15.0 _ --8.0 _ 085 _ 117 ___ 6.5, +2.5 ___ Y, Knock
JCXBXC___________ 4.8 _ 12.2 _ --6.4 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 9.8, +4.6 ___ No
john mac__________ 4.6 _ 14.5 _ --5.2 _ 097 _ 100 ___ 9.0, +1.5 ___ No
M.T. Cranium ______ 4.5 _ 13.5 _ --7.0 _ 080 _ 120 ___ 7.0, --1.5 ___ Y, Knock
BLIZZARD7 __ (-1) __3.8 _ 13.3 _--11.0_ 090 _ 110 ___ 3.7, --2.3 ___ Y, DubA
Joe Public _________ 3.5 _ 12.9 _ --6.9 _ 087 _ 119 ___ 8.9, +1.0 ___ No

mrskinner

PAULDRY......congratulations.


I think you are the winner of 2017 contest.

Have your speech ready!

M.T. Cranium

Final Annual scoring report for 2017

rank_best 10_FORECASTER __ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN_JUL_AUG_SEP_OCT_NOV_DEC __ TOTAL

01 _ 701 __ Con Sensus ____ 59 _ 66 _ 74 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 _ 61 _ 71 _ 69 _ 68 _ 91 _ 66 ___ 821 ( 1)


01 _ 700 __ pauldry ________74 _ 66 _ 62 _ 56 _ 60 _ 64 _ 72 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 _ 71 _ 79 ___ 816 ( 1)

02t_ 687 __ MrSkinner ______50 _ 66 _ 41 _ 66 _ 72 _ 58 _ 70 _ 69 _ 67 _ 77 _ 77 _ 65 ___ 778 ( 4)
02t_ 687 __ Tae laidir ______ 68 _ 57 _ 56 _ 76 _ 71 _ 68 _ 50 _ 64 _ 72 _ 45 _ 71 _ 84 ___ 782 ( 3)
04 _ 684 __ mickger844posts_74 _ 54 _ 73 _ 63 _ 55 _ 65 _ 70 _ 72 _ 65 _ 80 _ 67 _ 51 ___ 789 ( 2)
05 _ 680 __ Dacogawa _____ 46 _ 62 _ --- _ 51 _ 79 _ 71 _ 90 _ 57 _ 63 _ 58 _ 80 _ 69 ___ 726 ( 9)

06 _ 666 __ John mac ______ 58 _ 59 _ 76 _ 62 _ 64 _ 55 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 _ 47 _ 78 _ 73 ___ 768 ( 5)

07 _ 661 __ NormaL _______ 43 _ 68 _ 61 _ 63 _ 61 _ 41 _ 66 _ 66 _ 51 _ 59 _ 76 _ 90 ___ 745 ( 9)

07 _ 660 __ Bsal __________ 49 _ 58 _ 60 _ 58 _ 67 _ 69 _ 78 _ 81 _ 55 _ 58 _ 76 _ 49 ___ 758 ( 7)
08 _ 659 __ DOCARCH ______47 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 _ 60 _ 68 _ 77 _ 68 _ 48 _ 54 _ 72 _ 47 ___ 753 ( 8)
09 _ 657 __ Rameire _______ 57 _ 56 _ 52 _ 66 _ 65 _ 70 _ 60 _ 75 _ 57 _ 73 _ 78 _ 50 ___ 759 ( 6)
10 _ 646 __ Lumi __________57 _ 72 _ 72 _ --- _ 70 _ 72 _ --- _ 80 _ 40 _ 69 _ 61 _ 53 ___ 646 (20)

11 _ 640 __ 200motels _____ 64 _ 51 _ 69 _ 52 _ 35 _ 65 _ 69 _ 68 _ 34 _ 69 _ 79 _ 54 ___ 709 (12)
12 _ 637 __ sunflower3 _____ 46 _ 48 _ 62 _ 56 _ 54 _ 67 _ 42 _ 78 _ 61 _ 66 _ 76 _ 69 ___ 725 (10)
13 _ 627 __ Kindred Spirit ___54 _ 78 _ 55 _ 56 _ 49 _ 64 _ 60 _ 75 _ 51 _ 39 _ 69 _ 65 ___ 715 (11)
14 _ 613 __ Dasa29 ________55 _ 49 _ 59 _ 69 _ 45 _ 59 _ 52 _ 56 _ 80 _ 59 _ 70 _ 54 ___ 707 (13)
15 _ 612 __ M.T. Cranium ___ 53 _ 46 _ 75 _ 56 _ 44 _ 58 _ 77 _ 47 _ 32 _ 68 _ 79 _ 53 ___ 688 (16)
16 _ 611 __ sryanbruen _____43 _ 76 _ 62 _ 60 _ 39 _ 70 _ 44 _ 69 _ 58 _ 68 _ 61 _ 43 ___ 693 (t14)
17 _ 609 __ Jpmarn ________70 _ 70 _ 22 _ 55 _ 56 _ 43 _ 51 _ 61 _ 55 _ 62 _ 42 _ 86 ___ 673 (17)
18 _ 607 __ Rikand ________ 54 _ 63 _ 66 _ 54 _ 75 _ 64 _ 46 _ 40 _ 56 _ 54 _ 75 _ 46 ___ 693 (t14)
19 _ 606 __ waterways _____ 49 _ 58 _ 67 _ 12 _ 67 _ 54 _ 68 _ 59 _ 68 _ 52 _ 60 _ 53 ___ 667 (18)
21 _ 571 __ Joe Public ______36 _ 57 _ 54 _ 46 _ 87 _ 56 _ 45 _ 68 _ 47 _ 44 _ 62 _ 49 ___ 651 (19)

20 _ 603 _(best of occasionals)--- _ 60 _ 63 _ 68 _ 39 _ 56 _ 74 _ --- _ 47 _ 46 _ 89 _ 61 ___ 603 (21)

xxx sdanseo _____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ --- _ 56 _ 40 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 81 _ 51 ___ 296
xxx JCX BXC _____________ --- _ 60 _ 63 _ 47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 61 ___ 231
xxx Elmer Blooker _________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 46 _ 72 _ --- ___ 118
xxx Tazio ________________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 47 _ --- _ 70 _ --- ___ 117
xxx waterjohn ____________--- _ --- _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 101
xxx Western Storm ________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 89 _ --- ____89
xxx Rougies _____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 83 _ --- ____83
xxx Gonzo _______________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 74 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ____74
xxx BLIZZARD7 ___________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 31 ____31


=================================================

---

=================================================

Notes:

1. To get the best 10 of 12 scores, the low scores in italics were dropped. For those forecasters with 11 entries, one low score was dropped. For Lumi who had 10 entries, no scores were dropped. Sryanbruen and Rikand had tied values for second lowest so there are three scores indicated, but only two were dropped for best ten.

2. The table is in order of the best 10 of 12 scoring; this determines the "Boards Award" and this year's winner is Pauldry with 700 points -- congratulations. MrSkinner and Tae laidir tied for second at 687 , just ahead of mickger844posts in fourth with 684 and Dacogawa fifth at 680. Con Sensus actually had the highest total of 701.

3. The total score for all contests entered is at the end of the row with a ranking in brackets, and this determines the "M.T. Cranium Award" which means you get me as a house guest for the next year, and that winner (?) is also Pauldry with 816. I like my eggs scrambled. Oh wait, Con Sensus was the actual winner with 821 points, perhaps Con has a spare room. (The real winner is Pauldry, Con may not run off with any of our trophies.) In this category, second was mickger844posts with 789 and third was Tae laidir at 782. MrSkinner was fourth at 778 and John mac fifth at 768.

4. The highest score for any contest was 91 for Con Sensus in November, then 90, shared by Dacogawa (July) and NormaL (December), 89 for Western Storm in November, and 87 for Joe Public in May. Monthly high scores appear in bold in the table. If Con Sensus or NormaL achieve those, an actual forecaster with high score is then also shown in bold.

5. The highest minimum score also went to Pauldry, whose worst effort was 56. That explains 2 and 3 above.

6. Ranks of Con Sensus and NormaL are derived from relative positions to actual forecasters, and do not include each other's rankings, nor do they bump anyone below them down in rankings. NormaL would finish two ranks lower if Con Sensus was counted as a ranked forecaster.

I hope you all enjoyed participating in the 2017 forecast contest year, and best of luck in 2018.

sunflower3

Well done Pauldry - very consistent scores throughout the year - hope you have the kettle on for MT...:D:D:D

Its a great competition - I look forward to it every month! Thanks to organisers and participants....

Roll on 2018 - Lets beat Con..... and Norma of course!