Fancies For Today III

realdanbreen

zimmermania wrote: »

Two bets for friday,ELEGANT ELLEN 1.05 Doncaster is thought to be useful and connections win here.

JOHNNY B can win a modest staying handicap hurdle at Chepstow in the 7.35,is running well since going handicapping and stays this trip easily.

There is not a great deal to beat here and the horse goes well for the rider.

At home PERRY SQUARE in the 1.20 Cork could cause a surprise at a big price,300/1 when 4th last time would not have to improve much to be involved here.

His trainer loves racing but has not had a winner in 4 years,if this one drifts a bit he will be worth backing ew without the 1st and 2nd favs is 13/2 now but if drifting a little could go to 8/1 without the 2 jollies and that would be value as there was a lot to like about his last run and the stable had one run 2nd last week.

The kindest thing to say about elegant ellen is that her heart wasn't in it!
Got a great break so no excuses for the 3/4 paced race she ran.

zimmermania

realdanbreen wrote: »

The kindest thing to say about elegant ellen is that her heart wasn't in it!
Got a great break so no excuses for the 3/4 paced race she ran.

I am not sure about that,The horse had not run for 247 days,we punters have to assume she was fit and ready to go,the drift to 12/1 told us that was not the case.
Most of the time we do not know whether or not a horse is fit when it it having its first run after a good layoff.

If the horse was going down the handicap road one would reasonably expect it not be fully tuned up for the race but we know little or nothing of trainers plans in these modest maidens and we just hope the horse we back is fit and ready.

I think she will win a race or two in time and i will keep her in my tracker.

Chancer3001

Carvaggio was an unreal 2 year old back in the day.

And his offspring andreas vessalius is out of a dam who won as a 2 year old also.

So I'm hoping there's enough breeding in this 2 year old to make the 8/1 seem very generous in the opener at navan.

Having a larger than usual bet than I'd ever have on a maiden.

Chancer3001

Chancer3001 wrote: »

Carvaggio was an unreal 2 year old back in the day.

And his offspring andreas vessalius is out of a dam who won as a 2 year old also.

So I'm hoping there's enough breeding in this 2 year old to make the 8/1 seem very generous in the opener at navan.

Having a larger than usual bet than I'd ever have on a maiden.

3 places so it came 4th. Standard. Trainers other horse won it. Will keep an eye on it in future

zimmermania

Chancer3001 wrote: »

3 places so it came 4th. Standard. Trainers other horse won it. Will keep an eye on it in future

Hard to know which Obrien will win,it was his brothers horse by the way so not the same trainer.

Our 2 year old Cailin Cliste comes up against 2 Caravggios in the first at Naas tomorrow so heres hoping another Caravaggio can be turned over.

but1er

zimmermania wrote: »

Hard to know which Obrien will win,it was his brothers horse by the way so not the same trainer.

Our 2 year old Cailin Cliste comes up against 2 Caravggios in the first at Naas tomorrow so heres hoping another Caravaggio can be turned over.

The way Ryan Moore is riding I wouldn't be touching him must have you confident

ShamoBuc

Great Bear 3.40 at 9/1 5 places

zimmermania

BEACON EDGE went over 3 miles for the first time at Cheltenham and looked like taking a hand in the finish before fading after the last to finish 4th behind Flooring Porter who made all for a very impressive win,i give BEACON EDGE a chance to turn the tables tomorrow and make him a decent ew bet on a course that may suit him better. 5.25 Pun.

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

BEACON EDGE went over 3 miles for the first time at Cheltenham and looked like taking a hand in the finish before fading after the last to finish 4th behind Flooring Porter who made all for a very impressive win,i give BEACON EDGE a chance to turn the tables tomorrow and make him a decent ew bet on a course that may suit him better. 5.25 Pun.

Beacon Edge going well before coming down.

Only other bet is Strawberri in the 8.15 at Chelm,should improve from last run enough to win tonight.

zimmermania

Nice Hunter card at Cheltenham today,Fumet Doudaries 5.oc,I'm Wiser Now 6.10 and Risk A Fine 8.10 are three with chances.

zimmermania

lThe 2,000 gns tomorrow at Newmarket has been won 10 times by A Obrien but i dont think he has ever had a fav like Wembly run in the gns.

Wembly has had 6 runs (thats more than usual) and has been beaten 5 times and his only win has been a maiden in Roscommon!.

It will be remarkable if Obrien can win with the horse with a most unusual profile for the race.

My idea of the winner is Joseph Obrien's THUNDER MOON who has had 3 runs,winning two and running 3rd in the Dewhurst behind Wembly and St Marks Basilica on ground that was too soft for him.

On his previous run THUNDER MOON had beaten both of them over 7 furlongs after getting into trouble and having to switch on more than one occasion.

That was very good form and gives the horse every chance of coming out on top in the years first classic.

I had my biggest bet on the flat this year at 5/1 ew with PP and Joseph will have the horse primed for this and there is no better man to get one ready as he has proved so often in his short training career.

realdanbreen

zimmermania wrote: »

I am not sure about that,The horse had not run for 247 days,we punters have to assume she was fit and ready to go,the drift to 12/1 told us that was not the case.
Most of the time we do not know whether or not a horse is fit when it it having its first run after a good layoff.

If the horse was going down the handicap road one would reasonably expect it not be fully tuned up for the race but we know little or nothing of trainers plans in these modest maidens and we just hope the horse we back is fit and ready.

I think she will win a race or two in time and i will keep her in my tracker.

She's out tomorrow in Thirsk, we'll have to give her a bit of support.

bassy

realdanbreen wrote: »

She's out tomorrow in Thirsk, we'll have to give her a bit of support.

whats her name ?.

realdanbreen

bassy wrote: »

whats her name ?.

Sorry, Elegant Ellen.

zimmermania

realdanbreen wrote: »

She's out tomorrow in Thirsk, we'll have to give her a bit of support.

Well spotted,I have a feeling Ellen is going down the handicap route and if I am right she will not be a bet tomorrow so I will wait and back her when she goes handicapping off a good mark.

realdanbreen

zimmermania wrote: »

Well spotted,I have a feeling Ellen is going down the handicap route and if I am right she will not be a bet tomorrow so I will wait and back her when she goes handicapping off a good mark.

Gulp! Did her in an outlandish double with Humm baby in PT. On a more realistic note
, two I fancy today are Wembley 3.40 and Bull Rock 1.50, Newmarket.

zimmermania

Some turn up in the Guineas,the "lads" will have to do a bit of head scratching as some big money bets go astray,Thunder Moon ran no sort of race and the only consolation is that Jim Bolger and his jockey struck a blow for the geriatrics as they got up in the last stride.

realdanbreen

zimmermania wrote: »

Some turn up in the Guineas,the "lads" will have to do a bit of head scratching as some big money bets go astray,Thunder Moon ran no sort of race and the only consolation is that Jim Bolger and his jockey struck a blow for the geriatrics as they got up in the last stride.

Great to see Bolgers yard come through. Yes like you say some heavy bets went up in smoke although I'd say no worse than a score e/w falling short for the likes of you or me!

munster87

Texas Rock in the 4:55. Simply as 22/1 with Ladbrokes and as small as 10s elsewhere

CH3OH

BRINGSTY 4 16 Windsor.

I Thought this ran very well first time out 2 months ago and was very green .
It was beaten a couple of lengths but could have been a lot closer but Spencer eased it up as it looked like he didn't think he would get to the winner.
A couple of more fancied runners but at around 5/1 BF,
I hope it will run well

That didn't go well!

zimmermania

AQAMAN 2.45 Chester can go well tomorrow and ARION FOX should win the 5.20 at Chelmsford.

zimmermania

On friday the Chester cup is run over 2 miles 2 furlongs with good fields this has always been a good betting race and it is hard to believe that the draw plays a part in such a long race but the stats say that low numbers have a good advantage.

However thats only part of the story and while all the papers will point out the benefit of a low draw they will ignore what happens in the race when the going is "good to soft or soft" in five years out of the last twenty the word soft was in the going and the winners were drawn,

16 of 15, 11 of 17,13 of 16,15 of 18 and 4 of 18.so if the going stays as it is now the draw may not play a big part in the outcome and may even favour high numbers.

Its always hard to pick the winner but some horses seem to run well in this year after year and i give chances to WHO DARES WINS,
COEUR DE LION (both trained by Alan King) who have plenty form around here and ROCHESTER HOUSE running for the first time in the race and a 5 year old that is still improving and like the other two will go on any ground.
Two are priced at 12 or 14/1 and the other is 16/1.PP goes 5 places.

zimmermania

A mixed bag saturday with plenty racing going on.

There is a group 3 in Naas at 2.40 where all the usual suspects have runners but i am going for a very lightly raced outsider the lightly raced 4 year old filly INSINUENDO who has only had two runs and who ran very well a couple of weeks ago over a trip that was way too short for her in Tipp.

She ran on well that day and despite giving a lot of weight to the 3 year olds from the top yards can repay ew support at 10/1.

At Haydock the 3.10 is a very competitive handicap hurdle usually run on much better ground.

The ground wont bother BALLINESKER who despite being well beaten on last two runs is worth backing.
Trained by Evan Williams the horse is sure to be tuned up for this given his trainers record in the race.

Williams has trained 4 winners of this in the last 7 years and has had 2 horses placed,a repeat of the form shown in a big handicap at Cheltenham last november would be enough to put the horse in contention and with 5 places is a good ew bet at 8/1.

LIGHT REFRAIN from the Haggas yard can win the listed race at2.55 Nottingham,not best drawn but that may not matter too much for the hold up horse who can come late and is another ew bet at 11/2.

ShamoBuc

Double Kodiac Naas 5.00 8/1 with 5 places

MyStubbleItches

ShamoBuc wrote: »

Double Kodiac Naas 5.00 8/1 with 5 places

Good tip. Beaten by a nose for the last place. Info was good, keep them coming.

realdanbreen

zimmermania wrote: »

A mixed bag saturday with plenty racing going on.

There is a group 3 in Naas at 2.40 where all the usual suspects have runners but i am going for a very lightly raced outsider the lightly raced 4 year old filly INSINUENDO who has only had two runs and who ran very well a couple of weeks ago over a trip that was way too short for her in Tipp.

She ran on well that day and despite giving a lot of weight to the 3 year olds from the top yards can repay ew support at 10/1.

At Haydock the 3.10 is a very competitive handicap hurdle usually run on much better ground.

The ground wont bother BALLINESKER who despite being well beaten on last two runs is worth backing.
Trained by Evan Williams the horse is sure to be tuned up for this given his trainers record in the race.

Williams has trained 4 winners of this in the last 7 years and has had 2 horses placed,a repeat of the form shown in a big handicap at Cheltenham last november would be enough to put the horse in contention and with 5 places is a good ew bet at 8/1.

LIGHT REFRAIN from the Haggas yard can win the listed race at2.55 Nottingham,not best drawn but that may not matter too much for the hold up horse who can come late and is another ew bet at 11/2.

Great shouts zimmer, of course I only spotted them a few minutes ago.

Two I fancy today in ffos. Imperial knight 3.15 and snougar 2.15.

Chancer3001

Backing 2 at killarney today for interest

Ben dundee 6.10 11/1

Darasso 8/1

I dont think samcro will win either. Hoping its a gentle comeback run

zimmermania

The 5.20 at Aintree is a 3 horse race over 3 miles and a furlong,Mister Sweets is the outsider of the 3 and on all known form should have little chance,the fav is Onagatheringstorm trained by Fergal Obrien at 8/11 and the horse that i think should be fav is COPPER COIN who has been impressive over hurdles and fences and is strongly fancied by me to win this novice hurdle,can be backed at between 6/4 and 7/4 and looks a really good bet with just one to beat.

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

The 5.20 at Aintree is a 3 horse race over 3 miles and a furlong,Mister Sweets is the outsider of the 3 and on all known form should have little chance,the fav is Onagatheringstorm trained by Fergal Obrien at 8/11 and the horse that i think should be fav is COPPER COIN who has been impressive over hurdles and fences and is strongly fancied by me to win this novice hurdle,can be backed at between 6/4 and 7/4 and looks a really good bet with just one to beat.

He sets off in front to make it a true stamina test which was fine and then falls in a race where the fav looked no great shakes,thats racing hard to take at times but luck evens out in the end.

zimmermania

Yo

zimmermania wrote: »

I am not sure about that,The horse had not run for 247 days,we punters have to assume she was fit and ready to go,the drift to 12/1 told us that was not the case.
Most of the time we do not know whether or not a horse is fit when it it having its first run after a good layoff.

If the horse was going down the handicap road one would reasonably expect it not be fully tuned up for the race but we know little or nothing of trainers plans in these modest maidens and we just hope the horse we back is fit and ready.

I think she will win a race or two in time and i will keep her in my tracker.

ELEGANT ELLEN runs in the 2 .35 at Ripon with every chance,the David Omeara trained Tamaska should be the danger but the ground will suit ELLEN and she should be good enough. Ellen is 4 to 1 with Pp this morning and looks a real good ew bet with Pp going 4 places