Gerry Adams to announce retirement from President of Sinn Fein

Harry Palmr

I'm sure the 'its not a coup' in Harare was not in his mind

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/17/gerry-adams-to-announce-retirement-as-sinn-fein-president

Gerry Adams will announce his plans to retire after 34 years as president of Sinn F on Saturday, marking a generational shift that will break the leadership’s last link with republican violence.

Adams will take to the stage of Dublin’s RDS conference hall to set out an exit that some analysts say will improve Sinn F’s electoral chances in the Irish Republic.

But sources within the mainstream Irish republican movement and veteran Adams-watchers believe the 69-year-old will still hold the centre of power in Sinn F from behind the scenes long after his official successor is elevated to the top post.

Only one obvious candidate you'd think - Southern, Dublin, female, young(ish).

SuperSean11

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I'm sure the 'its not a coup' in Harare was not in his mind

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/17/gerry-adams-to-announce-retirement-as-sinn-fein-president



Only one obvious candidate you'd think - Southern, Dublin, female, young(ish).

And nothing to show for it

MadYaker

I'll believe it when I see it. He's the Mugabe of Irish politics and even if he does "resign" the presidency he will obviousl still be in charge.

Edit: At the end of that article it says he's written a book called "Never Give Up" :pac: a man without a sense of irony it seems

James Brown

If true, this might turn out great for the Irish political landscape. While there'll be less fuel for the likes of O'Dea, SF will be more likely to win or lose seats based on policy alone. Will be certainly interesting.

To paraphrase Jimmy Rabbite Sr., "FF/FG must be ****tin' themselves"

amcalester

Gerry Adams, Mary Lou, Michelle O’Neill makes no difference, it’s still the army council calling the shots.

blanch152

He will be back in Belfast with the real leadership.

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

With Gerry leaving, and this party decision, I'd say SF are as close as to be damned to be in the next Govt - probably with FF - I don't think Leo has the stomach for them, but FF would certainly love to be back in control.

Some serious manoeuvring from SF this weekend, with the Gerry announcement pending.

Hitman3000

Ayden High Wallet wrote:

With Gerry leaving, and this party decision, I'd say SF are as close as to be damned to be in the next Govt - probably with FF - I don't think Leo has the stomach for them, but FF would certainly love to be back in control.

The blueshirts and the Shinners will be at it all weekend on the Journal.

blanch152

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647

Sure FF/SF is only 7/1 for government after the next election, joint fourth favourite, and the first alternative to FG.

Makes sense for SF to go for this.

markodaly

Sinn Fein HQ know that they will not for decades be in a position to go in as the major party into government. So, if they want actually do anything apart from defending PIRA actions, or storming out of the Dail in some tantrum, they will have to go in as a junior partner.

They also know that if do this, that the reality of government is very different from opposition where you can promise everything with little consequences. So, they know that if they go in as the Junior partner and their gullible voters realise that they are full of ****, they will desert them in droves, ending up like the Labour party.

Bit of a decision alright.

road_high

Sooner these charlatans go into real govt the better. It’s the only way they can be
exposed for the complete sham they are.
Hopefully we won’t become as much like Greece as Pierce Doherty desires though in the process

sdanseo

road_high wrote: »

Sooner these charlatans go into real govt the better. It’s the only way they can be
exposed for the complete sham they are.
Hopefully we won’t become as much like Greece as Pierce Doherty desires though in the process

Starting to think that way myself. Populist scumbags doing anything and everything the masses will find palatable.

Our local SF TD was drafted in from the other side of the county - not even a local yet those who know absolutely about politics and only cared about water meters voted her in anyway.

Hitman3000

road_high wrote:

Sooner these charlatans go into real govt the better. It’s the only way they can be exposed for the complete sham they are. Hopefully we won’t become as much like Greece as Pierce Doherty desires though in the process

Oddly how many times was Pierce right and Mickey Noonan Wrong? I support neither party just curious

the_syco

road_high wrote: »

Sooner these charlatans go into real govt the better. It’s the only way they can be
exposed for the complete sham they are.

The army and the police will go on strike if they get in.

McMurphy

the_syco wrote: »

The army and the police will go on strike if they get in.

Like they did up North?

Some seriously panicky headlines in the indo this AM.

Is an election brewing I wonder?

Wheeliebin30

With dublin city council been made up with the most sf seats i think we can see how they might look in government.

Bring it on.

Jawgap

Ayden High Wallet wrote: »

With Gerry leaving, and this party decision, I'd say SF are as close as to be damned to be in the next Govt - probably with FF - I don't think Leo has the stomach for them, but FF would certainly love to be back in control.

Some serious manoeuvring from SF this weekend, with the Gerry announcement pending.

FF would love to be back in control, but first they'd have to get rid of Martin, then elect in someone disposed to doing business with SF.

Personally, I don't see it happening. It'll never happen with FG and even if FF vote in a leader disposed towards SF it's a contentious issue that'll have them squabbling for years.

I'd see it as a wedge issue and FG know they've nothing to gain by going anywhere near SF. Eventually, FF will figure out that the potential losses outweigh the gains and will try to distance themselves, but I reckon it'll be too late for them.......they're always be the lingering suspicion that'll do a deal with the devil himself if it meant getting back into power.

Edward M

MM says it won't happen, I'd say that makes it a cert to happen!

Jawgap

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I'm sure the 'its not a coup' in Harare was not in his mind

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/17/gerry-adams-to-announce-retirement-as-sinn-fein-president



Only one obvious candidate you'd think - Southern, Dublin, female, young(ish).

Not a chance the northern wing of the party will accept an ex-FF, Dublin-based leader, no matter how many Sean Russell rallies she goes to.

I think they'll want someone a bit more malleable like Doherty.

Jawgap

Matt Barrett wrote: »

If true, this might turn out great for the Irish political landscape. While there'll be less fuel for the likes of O'Dea, SF will be more likely to win or lose seats based on policy alone. Will be certainly interesting.

To paraphrase Jimmy Rabbite Sr., "FF/FG must be ****tin' themselves"

I think if he was to fully retire it'd be a seismic change, but I reckon FG/FF can't wait for him to go as his will be a peculiar form of retirement that will taint the party. Are they really going to elect someone who'd distance themselves from him? Whoever gets the gig will be beholden to him, and that'll suit the other parties just fine.

I expect lots of jibes revolving around the idea that he "hasn't gone away, you know."

christy c

Won't make a bit of difference IMO. It's just to stop them losing votes from people who think they'll never go in to power.

After the next election it'll be something like "we spoke to other parties but they wouldn't agree to (insert stupid demand)". Then they can justify doing nothing in opposition

markodaly

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

With dublin city council been made up with the most sf seats i think we can see how they might look in government.

Bring it on.

Fair point. The Shinners dominate DCC which has major issues pending, like homelessness. However, they spent most of this time reducing property tax, money which could have gone on to fund homelessness shelters, blocking all developments over a certain height and voting for very important issues like flying the Palestinian flag over city hall, all the while under their watch it emerged that there are houses with 40 people sharing.

Well played lads!

markodaly

Also, any major party that gives SF the reins of power will be vilified by middle Ireland. SF are the highest negative ratings of any Irish Party. If FF want to grab power from FG and use a SF coalition to do that, they will learn very quickly that middle Ireland will give them a 2011 style pay back at the ballot box.

FCIM

Jawgap wrote: »

Not a chance the northern wing of the party will accept an ex-FF, Dublin-based leader, no matter how many Sean Russell rallies she goes to.

I think they'll want someone a bit more malleable like Doherty.

I think they'll go with a leader in the north/leader in the south/overall leader as a figurehead type of leadership.

I could imagine Michelle O'Neill in the Six Counties, Mary Lou McDonald in the 26 and then someone who bridges the North-South gap like Pearse Doherty or Matt Carthy in overall control. O'Neill is too much of a fringe figure in the South, McDonald is not likely to be trusted in the North whereas Doherty (Donegal) or Carthy (Monaghan) may be seen as people who are both Northern and Southern and both are very capable.

Hitman3000

markodaly wrote:

Also, any major party that gives SF the reins of power will be vilified by middle Ireland. SF are the highest negative ratings of any Irish Party. If FF want to grab power from FG and use a SF coalition to do that, they will learn very quickly that middle Ireland will give them a 2011 style pay back at the ballot box.

Middle Ireland won't give a f**k, the party that brought this country to the financial abyss is back calling the shots thanks to middle Ireland.

blanch152

Hitman3000 wrote: »

Oddly how many times was Pierce right and Mickey Noonan Wrong? I support neither party just curious

None, I can't remember Doherty ever being right about anything.

blanch152

Jawgap wrote: »

FF would love to be back in control, but first they'd have to get rid of Martin, then elect in someone disposed to doing business with SF.

Personally, I don't see it happening. It'll never happen with FG and even if FF vote in a leader disposed towards SF it's a contentious issue that'll have them squabbling for years.

I'd see it as a wedge issue and FG know they've nothing to gain by going anywhere near SF. Eventually, FF will figure out that the potential losses outweigh the gains and will try to distance themselves, but I reckon it'll be too late for them.......they're always be the lingering suspicion that'll do a deal with the devil himself if it meant getting back into power.

If there was an election tomorrow, FF would have three choices:

- Confidence and supply with FG
- Junior partner in coalition with FG with Leo as Taoiseach
- Senior partner in coalition with SF with Martin or other FF as Taoiseach


Tough choices.

Hitman3000

blanch152 wrote:

None, I can't remember Doherty ever being right about anything.

Of course you don't. Noonans fiscal space ring any bells?

MadYaker

FCIM wrote: »

I think they'll go with a leader in the north/leader in the south/overall leader as a figurehead type of leadership.

I could imagine Michelle O'Neill in the Six Counties, Mary Lou McDonald in the 26 and then someone who bridges the North-South gap like Pearse Doherty or Matt Carthy in overall control. O'Neill is too much of a fringe figure in the South, McDonald is not likely to be trusted in the North whereas Doherty (Donegal) or Carthy (Monaghan) may be seen as people who are both Northern and Southern and both are very capable.

It's totally irrelevant. Gerry and Co will still be controlling everything from behind the scenes.

It's just another publicity coup. SF had a significant drop in the opinion polls recently and Gerry Adams has the lowest rating of any leader. If SF go into government they will see a massive decline in support.

Roger_007

It would be interesting to see how SF would transition from being 'hurlers on the ditch' to being 'hurlers on the field'. They talk a good game but that's easy to do when you don't have to take any action.
I don't agree with most of SFs policies but I would actually like to see them in government. It wouldn't take long to expose their utopian view of the world for the nonsense that it is.
Of course the prerequisite of any coalition with either FG, (unlikely), or FF would be the retirement of Adams.

Owryan

It's easy to say they would be willing to go into government as a junior party.

The difficult bit will be when they decide to produce a list of demands that would be unacceptable to any other party willing to talk to them.

After that they can say "well we were willing but the others were blah blah blah". Their supporters will lap it up.

And the army and gardai won't go on strike. They are sworn to uphold he lawful government and if sf were in power legally then so be it.

FCIM

MadYaker wrote: »

It's totally irrelevant. Gerry and Co will still be controlling everything from behind the scenes.

That's a very worn and tired argument especially when you couldn't get an A4 sheet of paper between the policies of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael yet instead of being the one party they can't get over the notions that "Mick said this" and "Dev said that".

MadYaker

Not sure how FF and FG are relevant but ok? It's still clearly going to be the case.

blanch152

FCIM wrote: »

That's a very worn and tired argument especially when you couldn't get an A4 sheet of paper between the policies of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael yet instead of being the one party they can't get over the notions that "Mick said this" and "Dev said that".

You replace a worn and tired argument with one from a century ago???

Jawgap

Hitman3000 wrote: »

Middle Ireland won't give a f**k, the party that brought this country to the financial abyss is back calling the shots thanks to middle Ireland.

I think that's the point......middle Ireland detest SF, hence their poll numbers and inability to get much beyond the low 20s, even in the teeth of austerity.

FF, despite trashing the country, have been forgiven, to a degree, by middle Ireland......the absolute worst thing they could probably do now is associate with SF.....the stain of the bank guarantee may wash away, but they might find it a bit harder to get rid of the whiff of cordite they'd pick from associating too closely with SF.

FCIM

MadYaker wrote: »

Not sure how FF and FG are relevant but ok? It's still clearly going to be the case.

Nonsense, others moved away and their influence dwindled.

blanch152 wrote: »

You replace a worn and tired argument with one from a century ago???

It's bang on the money right now. Why did FG and FF make a confidence and supply arrangement instead of merging when they are the same party in all but name?

blanch152

FCIM wrote: »

Nonsense, others moved away and their influence dwindled.



It's bang on the money right now. Why did FG and FF make a confidence and supply arrangement instead of merging when they are the same party in all but name?

If you go back that long Sinn Fein were the same party as them. Which shows how outdated an argument it is.

The hidden Belfast leadership was referenced by the PSNI only a few years ago.

Edward M

Jawgap wrote: »

I think that's the point......middle Ireland detest SF, hence their poll numbers and inability to get much beyond the low 20s, even in the teeth of austerity.

FF, despite trashing the country, have been forgiven, to a degree, by middle Ireland......the absolute worst thing they could probably do now is associate with SF.....the stain of the bank guarantee may wash away, but they might find it a bit harder to get rid of the whiff of cordite they'd pick from associating too closely with SF.

I wouldn't be too sure of that in the future.
Say GA resigns, PD or MLMD or whoever becomes the new leader and SF virtually rebrand themselves under that new leader, what then?
It'd be possible to believe that SF might be courted by any other party to form a govt after that.
I think SF took some flak because of their position after the last election and their new voters aren't voting for them for the old hard-line reasons anymore, they are voting for representation and would demand they take the opportunity if offered it. Their support won't grow much from where they are now unless the start to act on their promises.

FCIM

blanch152 wrote: »

If you go back that long Sinn Fein were the same party as them. Which shows how outdated an argument it is.

The hidden Belfast leadership was referenced by the PSNI only a few years ago.

No, the differences between SF and FFFG are stark in terms of policy. The difference between FF and FG are non existent so the question very much is why isn't FFFG one party. Both are the parties of putting people on hospital trollies, putting children into homelessness etc. and both relish their status as such.

The Gardai more-or-less dismissed the PSNI reference btw.

Jawgap

Edward M wrote: »

I wouldn't be too sure of that in the future.
Say GA resigns, PD or MLMD or whoever becomes the new leader and SF virtually rebrand themselves under that new leader, what then?
It'd be possible to believe that SF might be courted by any other party to form a govt after that.
I think SF took some flak because of their position after the last election and their new voters aren't voting for them for the old hard-line reasons anymore, they are voting for representation and would demand they take the opportunity if offered it. Their support won't grow much from where they are now unless the start to act on their promises.

GA could resign, step on a rocket and fly off to the stars and a good chunk of people still will never believe he isn't running things......I'd be one of them

Jawgap

FCIM wrote: »

No, the differences between SF and FFFG are stark in terms of policy. The difference between FF and FG are non existent so the question very much is why isn't FFFG one party. Both are the parties of putting people on hospital trollies, putting children into homelessness etc. and both relish their status as such.

The Gardai more-or-less dismissed the PSNI reference btw.

The problem, though, for SF is that the idea of a 'hidden leadership' looks plausible, even if it isn't reflective of the truth of the matter.

Even when GA goes I think SF will still struggle with their credibility. I think when GA goes, he has to actually go, and they'll have to get rid of the rest of the old stagers from the 'war' otherwise it just looks like a bit of glorified window dressing.

James Brown

Jawgap wrote: »

I think if he was to fully retire it'd be a seismic change, but I reckon FG/FF can't wait for him to go as his will be a peculiar form of retirement that will taint the party. Are they really going to elect someone who'd distance themselves from him? Whoever gets the gig will be beholden to him, and that'll suit the other parties just fine.

I expect lots of jibes revolving around the idea that he "hasn't gone away, you know."

I wouldn't expect a distancing. It'll mean less material for the likes of O'Dea and we can stick to policies. Also Leo might have to answer a question with out responding along the lines of, "I know you are, what am I?".

As regards 'hidden leadership', absolutely every party has the backroom team. SF signed up to the GFA, FF/FG will only be able to deflect and scaremonger for so long.

Obvious Otter

Jawgap wrote: »

The problem, though, for SF is that the idea of a 'hidden leadership' looks plausible, even if it isn't reflective of the truth of the matter.

Even when GA goes I think SF will still struggle with their credibility. I think when GA goes, he has to actually go, and they'll have to get rid of the rest of the old stagers from the 'war' otherwise it just looks like a bit of glorified window dressing.

Sinn Fein struggle with credibility as they have been nothing more than commentators and serial whingers for a long time. Their policies only appeal to the poorest in society so naturally they aren’t going to win enough middle ground to actually implement any of their manifesto.

Ireland is stuck in the mud as people continue to vote for FF and FG. Although the alternative isn’t much better. Labour, Sinn Fein and most independents have exactly raised the bar in Irish politics either.

NIMAN

This will be a big day in Irish politics.
I think him and McGuinness would have stopped many people voting for them. Perhaps this might just bring them in additional voters in the coming years, although not immediately.

I always thought there was a great spot in Irish politics for people like the PDs or the SDs, but they never seemed to catch on.

Jawgap

Matt Barrett wrote: »

I wouldn't expect a distancing. It'll mean less material for the likes of O'Dea and we can stick to policies. Also Leo might have to answer a question with out responding along the lines of, "I know you are, what am I?".

As regards 'hidden leadership', absolutely every party has the backroom team. SF signed up to the GFA, FF/FG will only be able to deflect and scaremonger for so long.

Ah, I don't think Leo needs to worry too much......that headline in the Sun today is worth about 2 to 3% in the polls......more than he'd ever get for criticising SF.

And yes, every party has there éminences grises. Often they're colloquially referred to as the 'men in grey suits.' The problem for SF is their hidden leadership are perceived as wearing camouflage smocks, balaclavas and gloves not Armani.

McMurphy

Jawgap wrote: »

The problem, though, for SF is that the idea of a 'hidden leadership' looks plausible, even if it isn't reflective of the truth of the matter.

A party potentially in govt having a hidden leadership would by no means be a strange concept in this state.

Nor would it be an old concept either.

In our most recent example, the hidden leadership is the same party that the party in minority government keep reminding us wrecked the country. Twice.

Reminding the public every second breath at how bad they are, and how they tanked the economy, whilst also being at their behest is amusing.

I seem to recall Enda specifically having to go cap in hand for their approval on something or other not that long ago (was it around the McCabe debacle or Irish Water?)

the_syco

Rick Shaw wrote: »

Like they did up North?

They'll be doing their jobs, but would be ignoring any requests or orders from SF.

jjmcclure

I see Gerry talking nonsense again. It's now a sin to get up and go to the gym and then to a highly paid job with a pension. Clown. I wonder was he thinking about that on his business class flight to the US for private medical treatment.

FCIM

jjmcclure wrote: »

I see Gerry talking nonsense again. It's now a sin to get up and go to the gym and then to a highly paid job with a pension. Clown. I wonder was he thinking about that on his business class flight to the US for private medical treatment.

It might be when the payment is being received for keeping people on hospital trolleys and children in homeless accommodation.

FrancieBrady

Good to see him going on his own terms. Deserved after a phenomenal contribution to Irish politics.