Tesla Semi (HGV)

cros13

Livestream announcement starts at 04:00 tonight.

LIVESTREAM: https://www.ustream.tv/channel/23313961

http://tesla.com/semi



Rumored specs:
Architecture based on Model 3 battery modules and multiple model 3 motors with optimised gear ratio.
Multiple battery module loadouts for different applications/market segments.
Payload up to 36 tons
In excess of 500km range with a 15 ton payload.
Range as high as 700km with light payload.
High-power rapid charging
Possible HV PTO for trailer regen braking, motors etc.
5-10 fold reduction in fuel costs.
2-5 fold reduction in maintainance costs.
Some form of autonomous platooning.

KCross

cros13 wrote: »

In excess of 500km range with a 15 ton payload.

That wouldn't be typical though, would it?

Wouldn't most be carrying 30+ ton?

I think the real world range on a fully loaded trailer is what people are going to want to know. If thats only 200-300km it will be a hard sell for any inter-city routes.

ted1

They don’t call them 40ton artics for nothing!!!

But many do travel from Dublin to Cork with a fraction of that. That’s pretty much a return journey.
Take Bulmers in clonmel, they buy in there cans. So a truck load of empty cans doesn’t weigh much.

KCross

ted1 wrote: »

They don’t call them 40ton artics for nothing!!!

But many do travel from Dublin to Cork with a fraction of that. That’s pretty much a return journey.
Take Bulmers in clonmel, they buy in there cans. So a truck load of empty cans doesn’t weigh much.

It will be an easy choice (pending the RRP of course) to make if your route is the same everyday and within range of the truck.

But if there is variability in where you are going (e.g. independent hauliers etc) they will be slow to sink large amounts of cash in for fear of not being able to fulfil every job.

I think you would also have to take the real world range and more than half that to see how far you can go from your base as hauliers won't necessarily have destination charging and so will need the return journey covered all year round.

Lets hope its setup for a European market and not just a US thing.

cros13

KCross wrote: »

It will be an easy choice (pending the RRP of course) to make if your route is the same everyday and within range of the truck.

I'd say M&S and the like would be first to switch. Predictable routes and light loads, green cred for the brand as a bonus. Followed by the big groups like Stobart adding a few to the fleet for the most ideal routes and filling out. Solo operators would be the last group to move, and the number of those in Ireland is higher than in most countries.

KCross wrote: »

Lets hope its setup for a European market and not just a US thing.

The fact that they've gone with a quasi-cabover design would strongly indicate they are targeting the EU market. Cabovers are not even sold in the US by any of the major manufacturers. Their primary advantages are higher maneuverability and better visibility for the driver. Cabovers are usually aerodynamically worse so export to europe is the most likely explanation for that choice.

KCross wrote: »

That wouldn't be typical though, would it?

Wouldn't most be carrying 30+ ton?

I think the real world range on a fully loaded trailer is what people are going to want to know. If thats only 200-300km it will be a hard sell for any inter-city routes.

Outside of bulk materials transport (for example lumbar, aggregates etc. etc.) it's unlikely that you'd be hauling 30+ tons.

The tare (empty) weights of intermodal shipping containers for example would usually be 2.2 - 3.8 tons. and quite often there would be less than 10 tons of cargo inside.
A lot of loads would be in even lighter curtainsides or box trailers.

A large number of HGVs on the road are carrying light loads like consumer goods.

la ultima guagua

Bloomberg gave this a bit of air time.

Their take on it ( for The States ) FedEx, UPS et al.

I guess its a toy compared to whats used for "interstate trucking"

conor_mc

ted1 wrote: »

They don’t call them 40ton artics for nothing!!!

But many do travel from Dublin to Cork with a fraction of that. That’s pretty much a return journey.
Take Bulmers in clonmel, they buy in there cans. So a truck load of empty cans doesn’t weigh much.

They call them “40 foots”, not 40 tons, right???

My bet is that Elon’s “mind-blowing” moment will be some sort of autonomous car transporter service, e.g coast to coast, for Tesla car owners. He’s already mooted this kind of idea with The Boring Company, the street elevators that bring you down to sleds which whisk you around the tunnel network.

cros13

LIVESTREAM: https://www.ustream.tv/channel/23313961

cros13

Confirmed Specs:

36.287 tons max payload
800km range at MAX PAYLOAD
0-100km/h in 5 seconds unloaded or with empty trailer
0-100km/h in 20 seconds at max payload
0.36 drag coefficient
side flaps map to payload frontal area
4 independent motors (from the model 3), one per rear wheel
center driving position
FRUNK!
Tesla Megachargers charge 650km/range in 30 minutes
Tesla Megachargers supported by local powerpacks & supplemented by local solar
Enhanced Autopilot as standard
torque vectoring using independent motors prevents jackknifing
1.6 million km guarantee
can still operate with multiple motor failure
super-hardened windscreen to prevent windscreen damage related downtime
Remote Diagnostics
Predictive maintenance

Guaranteed lower TCO from day 1 including lease, insurance, electricity & maintenance.
Production 2019

ELON SNEAKS IN THE NEW 200kWh ROADSTER AT THE END!



Embargoed press now publishing:
https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/16/16667366/tesla-semi-truck-announced-price-release-date-electric-self-driving
https://jalopnik.com/the-tesla-semi-truck-will-go-0-60-in-5-seconds-with-a-c-1820532013

masseyno9

conor_mc wrote: »

ted1 wrote: »

They don’t call them 40ton artics for nothing!!!

But many do travel from Dublin to Cork with a fraction of that. That’s pretty much a return journey.
Take Bulmers in clonmel, they buy in there cans. So a truck load of empty cans doesn’t weigh much.

They call them “40 foots”, not 40 tons, right???

My bet is that Elon’s “mind-blowing” moment will be some sort of autonomous car transporter service, e.g coast to coast, for Tesla car owners. He’s already mooted this kind of idea with The Boring Company, the street elevators that bring you down to sleds which whisk you around the tunnel network.

Car transporter idea is interesting...wonder could it harness the battery power of the teslas it's carrying for increased range. That'd be cool!

cros13

masseyno9 wrote: »

Car transporter idea is interesting...wonder could it harness the battery power of the teslas it's carrying for increased range. That'd be cool!

With the range so far above expectation that's not required.

800km of motorway driving is 9 hours and HGV drivers in the EU are required to take a break every 4.5 hours

J.pilkington

ted1 wrote: »

They don’t call them 40ton artics for nothing!!!
.

It’s up to 46 tonnes now

gctest50

Not too bad once you get it moving ?

Tesla run ( two motors ) :

josip

cros13 wrote: »

With the range so far above expectation that's not required.

800km of motorway driving is 9 hours and HGV drivers in the EU are required to take a break every 4.5 hours

The cost of an 800km battery pack is over $300,000.
One would assume the cost of that will decrease, but would have to decrease by a lot to be competitive with diesel.
No surprise Musk focused on the TCO.

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-42021713

zilog_jones

How much does a typical European truck cost? That article says $120k for the US but I'd imagine things are more expensive here.

TCO must be a big deal - I can imagine the maintenance costs of a typical diesel truck powertrain are significant. How much oil goes in a 16 litre engine? :eek:

thierry14

josip wrote: »

The cost of an 800km battery pack is over $300,000.
One would assume the cost of that will decrease, but would have to decrease by a lot to be competitive with diesel.
No surprise Musk focused on the TCO.

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-42021713

Where are they getting the 300k from.

Even if we say $150kwh ( I'm sure its much cheaper now with gigafactory and new 2170 cells)

1200kwh pack x $150 = 180k

cros13

By the time this hits production Tesla will be at or below $100/kWh.
Consumption is ~1-2kWh/km (average 1.25)
Tesla's suggested rate for megacharger use is 0.18 cents per kWh

Something like a high end Scania R-series (R500 or R730) diesel can be €120-160k ex. VAT new.
Fuel consumption for it's 16L engine is 70-80L/100km for a trip at an average speed of 70km/h
Full tank is 850 liters. So fuel is 50 to 60 cents per km after tax rebates etc and range is just over 1000km. Refueling takes 10-15 minutes.
Maintenance depends on duty cycle but can be €10-20k/year excl. consumables like tires & oil

Take a route like Lublin to Rotterdam.
1483km
@ average 80km/h it's 19 hours excluding breaks.
Break of 45 minutes every 4.5 hours is mandatory, maximum daily limit is 9 hours (extendable to 10 twice a week).
Refueling or recharging for both the diesel and EV required once en-route. (15 mins vs 30 mins)

Call it 1500km for fuel purposes
Diesel = 1500 * 0.75 = €1,125
Electric = 1500 * 1.25 * 0.18 = €337.50

Pro-rated insurance likely ~€100 / leg for both

Pro-rated maintenance: €150-200 / leg for the diesel (new)
Pro-rated maintenance: unknown, but probably half the above

So savings of €900-1000/leg and you could see a truck do two to three legs like this per week (if the drivers are and loads are properly scheduled).
So payback for the EV in 2-3 years.

thierry14

cros13 wrote: »

By the time this hits production Tesla will be at or below $100/kWh.

That and many think Tesla have made serious progress on battery tech with 2170 cells and beyond

Roadster has a 200Kwh pack in a car that smaller than model 3 and will have load of boot space etc

Elon said Model 3 wouldn't get bigger than 100Kwh pack as it would be too big to fit and now they have 200Kwh in much smaller Roadster

Better chemistry?

cros13

thierry14 wrote: »

Better chemistry?

I'd say so... ~5-10%/year improvement in density

cros13

J.B. Hunt (one of the big US trucking companies) just announced it has placed deposits down for "multiple" Tesla Semi

http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-big-rigs-reserved-by-jb-hunt-2017-11?r=US&IR=T

cros13

Another order from grocery chain Meijer:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-17/tesla-seals-order-from-michigan-grocery-chain-for-semi-trucks

bennyineire

I think today is a watershed moment for the combustible engine, today is truly the beginning of the end as the combustible engine as been the dominant power source for automobiles, also the new roadster surly has the big sports car manufacturers shaking in their boots.

The next 20 years will see a revolution in this sector along with possible self driving vehicles, exiting times ahead. We might actually see the future we dreamed about as children (I'm 40 BTW)

unkel

cros13 wrote: »

0-100km/h in 5 seconds

Imagine the young man sitting smug faced in his GTI / Civic Type-R at the traffic lights beside the Tesla truck. Light goes green and....

goz83

unkel wrote: »

Imagine the young man sitting smug faced in his GTI / Civic Type-R at the traffic lights beside the Tesla truck. Light goes green and....

I would pay money to see that

unkel

+1

I already see several shocked faces in my rear view mirror when I floor it in my >8s Hyundai econobox. Never mind a 5s full blown truck

Esel

Anyone have a semi reading this thread?

cros13

Esel wrote: »

Anyone have a semi reading this thread?

My family has a transport company. We've been discussing putting down a deposit.
Trying to work out now what the cab length is. Also still wondering can we make the math work with the high capital cost.

josip

cros13 wrote: »

My family has a transport company. We've been discussing putting down a deposit.
Trying to work out now what the cab length is. Also still wondering can we make the math work with the high capital cost.

I don't think that's what Esel meant by 'semi'

cros13

josip wrote: »

I don't think that's what Esel meant by 'semi'

KCross

https://electrek.co/2017/11/22/tesla-semi-expected-price-electric-truck/

Regular production versions for the 300-mile and 500-mile range versions will be $150,000 and $180,000 respectively

aliveandkicking

KCross wrote: »

https://electrek.co/2017/11/22/tesla-semi-expected-price-electric-truck/

Regular production versions for the 300-mile and 500-mile range versions will be $150,000 and $180,000 respectively

That's a lot cheaper than expected.

I'm beginning to suspect there's some sort of battery tech innovation they haven't been told us about yet. Selling this truck with a monster ~1000kWh battery for $180,000 is economic suicide unless they've got battery production cost down to below $80/kWh. This combined with them fitting a 200kWh battery into the small chassis of the new Roadster (Musk previously said couldn't fit anymore than 75kWh into the Model 3 chassis) tells me something has changed in the battery game.

KCross

It is cheaper than expected alright. I hope that price translates over here in Euros.
Fuel savings will be massive but more importantly maintenance should be a huge bonus as well keeping the thing on the road more and costing less. At those prices, and assuming the job you want to put it at is within range, its a no brainer.


One thing that I wonder about though, how do you charge it "at home". A megacharger somewhere in Ireland is no use really. You need to leave your depot fully charged everyday. Whats realistically required to charge this thing from 0-100% overnight?

What type of charger? How much will that cost?
What electricity supply would you require to run it? Obviously 3-phase but what MIC? What would ESB Networks charge you for the upgrade?

thierry14

aliveandkicking wrote: »

That's a lot cheaper than expected.

I'm beginning to suspect there's some sort of battery tech innovation they haven't been told us about yet. Selling this truck with a monster ~1000kWh battery for $180,000 is economic suicide unless they've got battery production cost down to below $80/kWh. This combined with them fitting a 200kWh battery into the small chassis of the new Roadster (Musk previously said couldn't fit anymore than 75kWh into the Model 3 chassis) tells me something has changed in the battery game.

Think your right

Doesn't make sense

Last figures were about $140/kWh

Thats 140k for battery alone

GM paid LG Chem $145/kWh for the Bolt battery

GM got a good deal it was thought

Maybe the new 2170 cells have improved alot

https://insideevs.com/tesla-2170-battery-cells-greater-power-comparable-cost/

josip

KCross wrote: »

It is cheaper than expected alright. I hope that price translates over here in Euros.
Fuel savings will be massive but more importantly maintenance should be a huge bonus as well keeping the thing on the road more and costing less. At those prices, and assuming the job you want to put it at is within range, its a no brainer.


One thing that I wonder about though, how do you charge it "at home". A megacharger somewhere in Ireland is no use really. You need to leave your depot fully charged everyday. Whats realistically required to charge this thing from 0-100% overnight?

What type of charger? How much will that cost?
What electricity supply would you require to run it? Obviously 3-phase but what MIC? What would ESB Networks charge you for the upgrade?

What kind of a connection would a logistics company need? eg, one with 50 tractor units.
Do they effectively become small factories as far as the ESB are concerned?

KCross

josip wrote: »

What kind of a connection would a logistics company need? eg, one with 50 tractor units.
Do they effectively become small factories as far as the ESB are concerned?

Thats also a good point... whatever about charging one, what about charging 5,10, 20 of them.... there will be a limit beyond which ESB networks will simply refuse to supply you or will make it so prohibitively expensive its just not worth it.

Im thinking that if you have a fleet of them you would have to install Tesla battery packs which charge "slowly" from the grid supplemented with Solar PV and/or wind and then you use those to charge the trucks... a bit like how some Tesla supercharger sites work.

cros13

josip wrote: »

What kind of a connection would a logistics company need? eg, one with 50 tractor units.
Do they effectively become small factories as far as the ESB are concerned?

Overnight charging would require peak on the order of 100kW per truck. So... 5MW... basically the supply to a medium-sized town. You could cut that to maybe 2MW with batteries and load shifting, though financially for the moment you'd be better off leaving the bulk of the load at night.

50 HGVs would be on the upper end of the scale of transport companies here in Ireland.

josip

cros13 wrote: »

Overnight charging would require peak on the order of 100kW per truck. So... 5MW... basically the supply to a medium-sized town. You could cut that to maybe 2MW with batteries and load shifting, though financially for the moment you'd be better off leaving the bulk of the load at night.

50 HGVs would be on the upper end of the scale of transport companies here in Ireland.

I had Nolan's in mind when I asked.

cros13

josip wrote: »

I had Nolan's in mind when I asked.

TBH the electrical infrastructure will pay for itself very quick for a big company like that.
Over 500,000km (a not unusual amount of mileage to put on a new truck before selling it on) an 80L/100km diesel truck dould see fuel savings alone of a quarter million euro if replaced by an EV over the same mileage.

That'll pay for the grid connection easy enough. And currently we have oodles of spare grid capacity at night.

oinkely

If this takes off then the benefits to society in general will be massive. If even 1/3rd of the fleet changed over to electric every small town in the country will benefit, less noise and pollution. The future is bright, and quiet.

gctest50

The semis are to have 1.x megawatt chargers ?

400 miles in 30mins sorta thing

aliveandkicking

KCross wrote: »

Thats also a good point... whatever about charging one, what about charging 5,10, 20 of them.... there will be a limit beyond which ESB networks will simply refuse to supply you or will make it so prohibitively expensive its just not worth it.

Im thinking that if you have a fleet of them you would have to install Tesla battery packs which charge "slowly" from the grid supplemented with Solar PV and/or wind and then you use those to charge the trucks... a bit like how some Tesla supercharger sites work.

Very good point. I think Tesla will have to offer an all in one solution to the larger haulage companies to include not only the trucks but also installation of solar, powerpacks and megachargers at their depots.

cros13

gctest50 wrote: »

The semis are to have 1.x megawatt chargers ?

400 miles in 30mins sorta thing

The megachargers are for the moment primarily for en-route charging only.
The larger depots *might* have one or two in the future to facilitate quick turnaround, but the scale of the power requirements have not insignificant consequences for cost of operation.
Most HGVs aren't running 24/7 with three shifts of drivers. There is natural downtime there that can be put to use for charging for the next shift.
While en-route the driver is only allowed to drive for an absolute maximum of 10 hours before taking a mandatory 11 hour rest period, again most don't have a co-driver in the passenger seat to take over.

Given the scale of the pack, 100kW charging would allow a full charge from empty in the mandated regular daily rest period. 3/7/11/22kW just isn't going to cut it.

gctest50

1000kw charging would be nice though

and autopilot like this :

Dr Brown

KCross wrote: »

https://electrek.co/2017/11/22/tesla-semi-expected-price-electric-truck/

Regular production versions for the 300-mile and 500-mile range versions will be $150,000 and $180,000 respectively

Thats very good value I read somewhere that they expected the battery alone would cost 300k.

cros13

Dr Brown wrote: »

Thats very good value I read somewhere that they expected the battery alone would cost 300k.

Yeah... you see a lot of people extrapolating a per kWh battery price they picked up somewhere without sanity checking their numbers.
The battery is definitely the bulk of the cost of the Semi and incorrectly estimating the price is a big deal.

I think the battery is around 1000kWH. I've seen plenty estimate the battery price at $300/kWh, which is way off considering public statements put the 18650 cell price for the Model S & X a year ago below $135/kWh and the new 2170 cells have improved economics.

cnocbui

Bloomberg article contains people doubting Tesla's claims: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-24/tesla-s-newest-promises-break-the-laws-of-batteries

cros13

cnocbui wrote: »

Bloomberg article contains people doubting Tesla's claims: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-24/tesla-s-newest-promises-break-the-laws-of-batteries

Yeah, I read that earlier this morning. Bloomberg NEF appears to be the source of the $300/kWh number.
When public statements from last year have even GM's cell supply from LG at $145/kWh (http://www.luxresearchinc.com/content/gms-145kwh-lithium-ion-battery-cell-foreshadows-electric-vehicle-price-parity). Tesla buys a lot more cells than GM and has an advantage on top of that because of the higher usable volume of the new 2170 cells over the previous 18650s.

Tesla's last public statement on the cell price for the 18650s was in Dec 2016 when they indicated a price "below $135/kWh"

There's a lot of accuracy issues in that article, things overlooked and some small (& large) mistakes that compound.

"But even if Tesla achieves record-breaking efficiency for the truck, it would still require a battery capacity somewhere from 600 kilowatt hours to 1,000 kilowatt hours to deliver on Musk’s claims, according to estimates from Bloomberg New Energy Finance."

Yup, 1000kWh is my estimate, maybe even as high as 1200kWh.

"Split the difference, at 800 kWh, and it would mean a battery that weighs more than 10,000 pounds and costs more than $100,000—even before you build the truck around it."

Nope. Model 3 cells look to be around 320Wh/kg specific energy. Which would make an 800kWh pack weight 2.5 tons + structure + wiring, not 4.54 tons as suggested here. Though again I think 1000kWh and 3.2 tons + structure + wiring, still a lot... but less than the bloomberg estimates.

The other aspect is that even with the cabin frame being built from carbon fiber the rest of the vehicle looks very very cheap and easy to build.
It's body on frame with a relatively cheap steel truck frame, in the middle of this frame under the cabin a pack consisting of 54 standardised mass-produced (we hope) model 3 battery modules (the long range Model 3 uses four).
At the rear of the frame, four model 3 motor/inverters (again mass-produced,we hope), four small reduction gearboxes (probably specific ratio for the truck) and one short drive shaft for each motor/reduction gear to transmit power to one wheel.
Cabin frame on top, CFRP, about three times the area of the i3's frame. Maybe ~$12-16k at worst.
Bit of aluminium (or maybe thermoplastic) body panels, a steering wheel, seat, two model 3 displays using the same mounting hardware, an nVidia Drive PX can run two displays of that res no problem and is the same part as the Model 3, carpet and interior plastics. Heck even the door handles look reused from the model 3. I'd bet with the exception of the CFRP cabin and battery they are really really down on build cost vs a deisel semi.

Given the average comparable diesel semi in the US weighs about 9-10 tons excl. trailer even with 3.2 tons of battery I can see the CFRP frame and simple design bringing the kerb weight of the Tesla Semi even below the existing trucks.

"One thing Tesla has going for it is the falling price of batteries. Musk may be banking on battery improvements between now to the early 2020s in order for its truck to make financial sense."

Almost definately. But.... there's an additional factor bloomberg leaves out entirely.... and that's the first production run in 2019/2020 will be "Founders" trucks and priced at $200k, not $150k and $180k. Not only will one spec be made for the special edition, cutting costs, the RRP is $20k higher per unit to account for the battery cost until it drops further.

The Roadster stuff is more argument from personal incredulity than analysis. I see no issues given the battery density increases over the 12 years between the original roadster and this one, the carbon fiber body enabled by the increased RRP and the fact that the original roadster started life as a lotus not a dedicated EV platform.

cnocbui

As far as I can tell, Tesla's last official figure was $190 kwh and people are inferring the lower figure from a claim that a further 30% reduction has been achieved. So why haven't Tesla made an official claim? Until Tesla make official statements and give figures that would stand up to SEC scrutiny, I think it is wrong to us such low costings given the factory that is supposedly achieving these cost miracles appears to be having serious problems.

Idbatterim

safe to say tesla and musk arent bull ****ters...

https://www.sciencealert.com/elon-musk-100-day-deadline-50-million-bet-tesla-s-giant-battery-operational-south-australia

la ultima guagua

cnocbui wrote: »

.......given the factory that is supposedly achieving these cost miracles appears to be having serious problems.

This was always the way with Tech.

I well recall when 1k SRAMs & 4k DRAMs were state of the art and supply would fluctuate depending on production yield from the few factories that could make them.

Even at that time all the talk was of how 16k DRAMs were just around the corner and 64k DRAM technology was where development was at.

josip

Idbatterim wrote: »

safe to say tesla and musk arent bull ****ters...

https://www.sciencealert.com/elon-musk-100-day-deadline-50-million-bet-tesla-s-giant-battery-operational-south-australia

I think this is closer to the buls*it end of the spectrum than good business practice.
It's headline grabbing and I'd be curious how many other customers have had their deadlines pushed back so that this one could be met for the headlines.
Good marketing I suppose.