Irish Examiner - EV target cut by 90%

Orebro

Article from today's Irish Examiner attached - don't see it on their website

KCross

Those quotes seem to be taken directly from the recent (20 June) Daily committee. Watch the video here
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=103921030&postcount=161

BlinkingLights

Seems the original figure was wildly optimistic but if doesn't bode well for our CO2 targets which are likely go be missed by a wide margin.

Ireland has talked a lot about green issues and done very little.

I find out government engaged in a hell of a lot of green washing with relatively poor outcomes. Even in food and farming, all the push towards sustainability, yet the government caved into demands of mass production farming which is our single largest sources of emissions (42%) It even abstained when the EU was voting to ban bee toxic pesticides?!!

Our water pollution score is also extremely poor by eu standards and we languish, with the uk, at the bottom of the league.

Electric cars made for great photo ops but the commitment seems to have faded with the green party no longer being involved in government.

I would expect huge and embarrassing fines coming soon.

bk

BlinkingLights wrote: »

Electric cars made for great photo ops but the commitment seems to have faded with the green party no longer being involved in government.

Quite the opposite, remember it was the Green Party who heavily promoted Diesel cars and reduced the various taxes on them, making us have more Diesel cars then any country in Europe :mad:

The greens haven't a clue what they are talking about!

colm_mcm

bk wrote: »

Quite the opposite, remember it was the Green Party who heavily promoted Diesel cars and reduced the various taxes on them, making us have more Diesel cars then any country in Europe :mad:

The greens haven't a clue what they are talking about!

Where did you get that stat?

Far as I know, the uk has a higher ratio of diesel vs petrol and for example Lichtenstein have 95% new car sales on diesel.

BlinkingLights

We're mid table on that not by any means highest in EU

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Figure_3_Passenger_cars_by_type_of_engine_fuel,_2015.png


Also that was an EU wide policy that rates cars A to G. All we did in Ireland was grant cheaper tax to A rated cars and that includes petrol hybrids but a lot of diesels.

It is one you can squarely blame Brussels and lobbying by French and German car makers for. They'd invested heavily in low CO2 emission diesel and basically haven't done all that much about electric or hybrid and are actually years behind the Japanese and Americans, despite all their arrogance.

Toyota is probably a decade or more ahead on hybrid and there is no EU equivalent of Tesla or any sign of the big car makers catching up either.

Ireland would not have been necessarily able to single out hybrid petrol cars because of how the EU ratings had been done.

The result of those policies is very poor air quality in cities like Paris and Brussels where these CO2 only focused policies were pushed and particulate emissions from diesel are now very significant problems.

bk

colm_mcm wrote: »

Where did you get that stat?

Far as I know, the uk has a higher ratio of diesel vs petrol and for example Lichtenstein have 95% new car sales on diesel.

For 2016, new car sales, Ireland 70%, UK 47.7%, EU average 50%

http://www.acea.be/statistics/tag/category/share-of-diesel-in-new-passenger-cars

If you download the spreadsheet, Ireland is by far the highest.

I admit Lichtenstein isn't listed here, but if you look here, you see that for 2015, Diesels represent only 30% of cars there:

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Table_4_Diesel-driven_passenger_cars_by_size_of_engine,_2015.png

Anyway, Lichtenstein is a microstate of only 40,000 people and isn't in the EU, so hardly worth considering.

BlinkingLights

If you look at previous years several other countries hit similar levels then reduced.

The issue is Ireland hasnt revised tax laws yet. Others have panicked about air quality and made changes that have removed some of the diesel advantages.

Ireland's just legislatively very slow on this or LH isn't taking it very seriously.

The number of smoking diesels I'm seeing in the roads is worrying to. I counted 8 on the M7 yesterday on a 1 hour trip out of Dublin.

Clearly someone isn't maintaining them correctly and the NCT isn't frequent enough to catch them.

bk

BlinkingLights, we are the highest by new car sales as I show above, which started after the Green Party introduced the policy to promote Diesel cars.

Yes, the car manufacturers were trying to lobby parties all over Europe to promote Diesel. But the idiots in the Green Party should have known better. Diesel particulates causing cancer were well known back then, and many of us where shouting at them at the time not to follow this policy. Well we all know how that turned out.

IMO The Green Party are one of the worst things to happen to the environment! Their hearts are in the right place, but many of their environmental policies are barmy and end up doing more harm then good (e.g. closing Nuclear power plants in Germany, which has lead to a big increase in coal for power!).

oppenheimer1

bk wrote: »

Quite the opposite, remember it was the Green Party who heavily promoted Diesel cars and reduced the various taxes on them, making us have more Diesel cars then any country in Europe :mad:

The greens haven't a clue what they are talking about!

If the greens had promoted EV even more than they did we would be in an even worse state CO2 wise. Of course the Greens preferred the EV over diesel, but they could see that particular vehicle types major shortcomings i.e. range. and knew pushing it at that time was a waste of time.

The EV still isn't good enough yet for mass market adoption (still very much in early adopter phase - some 6 years after the launch of the first Leaf), but when it is people will switch.

bk

bk wrote: »

......... and many of us where shouting at them at the time not to follow this policy. Well we all know how that turned out.............

Really?

Most folk seemed happy to go from a Focus sized thing to a 320d or A4 with similar mpg and cheap tax iirc.

BlinkingLights

The big issue with EVs is that unless you're generating power from CO2 neutral sources, they could end up producing more CO2 than hybrid petrol.

With a small number charging off peak you'll get good CO2 efficiency but at present Ireland's power generation fleet is very close to capacity and coming under huge demand for power from traditional users as the economy grows again. If you add a large number of electric cars to it, you'll cause all the least efficient power plants to come on line and many of those are not very CO2 efficient.

We just aren't doing enough at all to meet the targets we committed to on carbon emissions and I can't really see how aren't going to heavily fined and deservedly so as we did the absolute minimum and just talked the talk.

ELM327

BlinkingLights wrote: »

The big issue with EVs is that unless you're generating power from CO2 neutral sources, they could end up producing more CO2 than hybrid petrol.

With a small number charging off peak you'll get good CO2 efficiency but at present Ireland's power generation fleet is very close to capacity and coming under huge demand for power from traditional users as the economy grows again. If you add a large number of electric cars to it, you'll cause all the least efficient power plants to come on line and many of those are not very CO2 efficient.

We just aren't doing enough at all to meet the targets we committed to on carbon emissions and I can't really see how aren't going to heavily fined and deservedly so as we did the absolute minimum and just talked the talk.

Not this again :mad:
An ev powered 100% by non-renewable energy is more efficient, not less efficient, than an ICE on a well to wheel basis due to less thermodynamic inefficiency.

oppenheimer1

ELM327 wrote: »

Not this again :mad:
An ev powered 100% by non-renewable energy is more efficient, not less efficient, than an ICE on a well to wheel basis due to less thermodynamic inefficiency.

You can't be that definitive because it depends on how that electricity was generated that charged the EV.

An inefficient generating regime charging an EV will be beaten by an efficient ICE in terms of CO2 emissions.

ELM327

ok

KCross

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

You can't be that definitive because it depends on how that electricity was generated that charged the EV.

An inefficient generating regime charging an EV will be beaten by an efficient ICE in terms of CO2 emissions.

The Irish figures are available so I think he can be definitive. Have you something that proves an Irish charged EV is less efficient/clean relative to ICE?

Of course it is variable day to day. You have to look at it on average across the year and I don't think you will be able to prove that an Irish charged EV is worse than an ICE for emissions.

oppenheimer1

KCross wrote: »

The Irish figures are available so I think he can be definitive. Have you something that proves an Irish charged EV is less efficient/clean relative to ICE?

Of course it is variable day to day. You have to look at it on average across the year and I don't think you will be able to prove that an Irish charged EV is worse than an ICE for emissions.

He never stated it was in an Irish context, just a broad statement that EV was more efficient than ICE - which is certainly not true.

BlinkingLights

The issue is the generation fleet here is not particularly efficient.
The grid is lossy due to the population density and it has a base load of largely natural gas with coal at Moneypoint.

Our renewables are largely wind and our peaking capacity is mostly distillates (diesel) and natural gas burnt in open cycle gas turbines.
We have no large scale hydro and none is really likely, we have no work done on tidal and nuclear (loathed as it is) doesn't exist here.

I would like to see the actual CO2 output per passenger km based on Irish grid post Vs say a current generation Prius and not just not the grid or the Prius working at a theoretical optimal. Real world figures would be useful.

The issue with the grid is the most efficient sources produce power distribution and less efficient plants and then rapid response but low efficiency plants kick in to deal with peaks in demand - gas turbines burning light oils or natural gas.

So basically the grid efficiency of the network goes down when demand goes beyond optimal.

KCross

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

He never stated it was in an Irish context, just a broad statement that EV was more efficient than ICE - which is certainly not true.

Ah come on.... the thread is about Irelands targets and the Green Party policies etc.


Can you give some facts/figures to support your statement.... "EV was more efficient than ICE - which is certainly not true."

What is the context of that statement? When is ICE more efficient than EV? Have you a worked example/figures that prove that and in what context?

bk

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

If the greens had promoted EV even more than they did we would be in an even worse state CO2 wise. Of course the Greens preferred the EV over diesel, but they could see that particular vehicle types major shortcomings i.e. range. and knew pushing it at that time was a waste of time.

Hybrid Petrol was widely available then. Didn't have to be pure EV. Instead the greens opted to poison us all, causing cancer, lung disease, asthma, etc. :mad:

BlinkingLights

What's worrying me is the relatively unambitious projects to make the network more efficient. There's also been very little done on public transport since the Luas. Other than replacing Irish rails fleet with a newer diesel fleet we have done very little.

Our CO2 emissions fell largely because of economic crisis not because of environmental policies. When the construction sector kicks back to full swing, we will be off the scale entirely.

KCross

BlinkingLights wrote: »

The issue is the generation fleet here is not particularly efficient.
The grid is lossy due to the population density and it has a base load of largely natural gas with coal at Moneypoint.

Our renewables are largely wind and our peaking capacity is mostly distillates (diesel) and natural gas burnt in open cycle gas turbines.
We have no large scale hydro and none is really likely, we have no work done on tidal and nuclear (loathed as it is) doesn't exist here.

I would like to see the actual CO2 output per passenger km based on Irish grid post Vs say a current generation Prius and not just not the grid or the Prius working at a theoretical optimal. Real world figures would be useful.

The issue with the grid is the most efficient sources produce power distribution and less efficient plants and then rapid response but low efficiency plants kick in to deal with peaks in demand - gas turbines burning light oils or natural gas.

So basically the grid efficiency of the network goes down when demand goes beyond optimal.

Lots of info there but no specifics to prove any point. What exactly are you saying? Are you saying its better to drive a hybrid instead of an EV? Or are you just posing it as a question and you have no idea of the actual answer?

The CO2 intensity figures are publicly available on a half hourly basis if CO2 is what you are focussed on. There is also the other elements like PM and NOx which clearly favour EV's since its not at the tailpipe but I'm not really sure what you are getting at.

BlinkingLights

What I'm saying is that if you plug a large number of EVs into a grid that has generation capacity issues and is close to capacity at present, the results will be higher CO2 per kWh.

During the economic collapse there was leeway. Now there isn't. So I can see the sense in the target changes.

The generation capacity needs to be in place.

I'm a bit iffy about Ireland angling for data centres too for similar reasons unless we can drastically improve the renewables mix in electrical generation we are going to cause ourselves problems.

ELM327

KCross wrote: »

Lots of info there but no specifics to prove any point. What exactly are you saying? Are you saying its better to drive a hybrid instead of an EV? Or are you just posing it as a question and you have no idea of the actual answer?

The CO2 intensity figures are publicly available on a half hourly basis if CO2 is what you are focussed on. There is also the other elements like PM and NOx which clearly favour EV's since its not at the tailpipe but I'm not really sure what you are getting at.

I do not understand how anybody of sound mind can believe driving around a 19th century technology with a load of contained explosions burning a finite carbon based liquid can be as energy efficient as driving around with no tailpipe emissions and little to no thermodynamic losses.

The mind boggles.

ELM327

BlinkingLights wrote: »

What I'm saying is that if you plug a large number of EVs into a grid that has generation capacity issues and is close to capacity at present, the results will be higher CO2 per kWh.

During the economic collapse there was leeway. Now there isn't. So I can see the sense in the target changes.

The generation capacity needs to be in place.

I'm a bit iffy about Ireland angling for data centres too for similar reasons unless we can drastically improve the renewables mix in electrical generation we are going to cause ourselves problems.

Battery storage is your friend there.
Watch the video from the TeslaBjorn youtube channel about the norwegian building with multiple fast chargers and over 100 7-22kW AC chargers. In one location. Load balancing and battery storage.

KCross

BlinkingLights wrote: »

What I'm saying is that if you plug a large number of EVs into a grid that has generation capacity issues and is close to capacity at present, the results will be higher CO2 per kWh.

During the economic collapse there was leeway. Now there isn't. So I can see the sense in the target changes.

The generation capacity needs to be in place.

What are you basing that statement on?
There is loads of capacity at night which is when EV's charge.
Bringing loads of EV's online at that time would probably improve things, not make it worse as you would be sweating more use out of those assets that are otherwise idle at night.

BlinkingLights wrote: »

I'm a bit iffy about Ireland angling for data centres too for similar reasons unless we can drastically improve the renewables mix in electrical generation we are going to cause ourselves problems.

Im with you on that. The ESB have already stated that data centre's are a much bigger issue to them than EV's. If all planned data centres were to proceed it would add 35% more demand to the grid.

BlinkingLights

This would give you an idea of the not insignificant pressures being faced by the lower generation system and the fact is is being met by big increases in fossil fuels , notably coal, in the mix.

www.seai.ie/News_Events/Press_Releases/2016/Energy-Use-and-Associated-CO2-emissions-increased-in-2015.html

Currently for example, Ireland network is producing 457g per kWh Vs 81g in France.

https://www.electricitymap.org/

BlinkingLights

The average CO2 emissions of the power generation system here are poor, even at night.

Electric Ireland average is 476g per kWh for example.

KCross

BlinkingLights wrote: »

This would give you an idea of the not insignificant pressures being faced by the lower generation system and the fact is is being met by big increases in fossil fuels , notably coal, in the mix.

www.seai.ie/News_Events/Press_Releases/2016/Energy-Use-and-Associated-CO2-emissions-increased-in-2015.html

Currently for example, Ireland network is producing 457g per kWh Vs 81g in France.

https://www.electricitymap.org/

BlinkingLights wrote: »

The average CO2 emissions of the power generation system here are poor, even at night.

Electric Ireland average is 476g per kWh for example.

Understood. We could do better. We could match France if we built a bunch of nukes.

What is your point about EV's though? Are you suggesting we shouldn't promote EV? We should instead stick with ICE and specifically hybrid?

The capacity is there at night.

BlinkingLights

I'm suggesting we should prioritise probably a mix of hybrids and EV pushing more toward EV as the grid can take it.

Economic activity is going to swamp the grid for the next few years and we need to be lashing investment into low or no CO2 generation capacity and storage.

We need to probably impose a health levy on diesel.
To avoid upset, maybe a levy on new diesels and a scrappage deal for old ones. The aim should be to get the worst particulate polluters off the roads.

I would also advocate a mini NCT focused only on emissions every 12 months for diesels.

Also the state needs to stop angling for power intensive data centre projects. We have limited renewables and they create very few jobs long term. It's an odd strategy as it could end up bleeding limited resources and contributing very little economic payback.

Orebro

BlinkingLights wrote: »

Also the state needs to stop angling for power intensive data centre projects. We have limited renewables and they create very few jobs long term. It's an odd strategy as it could end up bleeding limited resources and contributing very little economic payback.

Couldn't agree more on this. These Data Centres make fantastic headlines, but at the end of the day have a tiny yield in jobs after they are built. What is it they say about modern Data Centres - only 1 man and 1 dog required to run them, the man to feed the dog, and the dog to keep the man away from the equipment.

KCross

BlinkingLights wrote: »

I'm suggesting we should prioritise probably a mix of hybrids and EV pushing more toward EV as the grid can take it.

Economic activity is going to swamp the grid for the next few years and we need to be lashing investment into low or no CO2 generation capacity and storage.

You've suggested a few times the grid is under pressure. I don't see it. There is new renewables being added all the time so thats increasing capacity, we have new interconnectors and more efficient plant replacing older plant.

I'd also point you to an extensive ESB study on the effects of EV's on the grid. They have concluded there is plenty capacity to add EV's (50% penetration possible in some urban areas, 20% in rural areas). We are a very very long way away from hitting those penetration figures so any incentives we add now won't jeopardise the grid.

http://www.cer.ie/docs/000413/CER16286b%20ESB%20eCars%20Pilot%20Project%20Report.PDF

BlinkingLights wrote: »

We need to probably impose a health levy on diesel.
To avoid upset, maybe a levy on new diesels and a scrappage deal for old ones. The aim should be to get the worst particulate polluters off the roads.

I would also advocate a mini NCT focused only on emissions every 12 months for diesels.

Also the state needs to stop angling for power intensive data centre projects. We have limited renewables and they create very few jobs long term. It's an odd strategy as it could end up bleeding limited resources and contributing very little economic payback.

I agree with all that.

oppenheimer1

KCross wrote: »

You've suggested a few times the grid is under pressure. I don't see it. There is new renewables being added all the time so thats increasing capacity, we have new interconnectors and more efficient plant replacing older plant.

I'd also point you to an extensive ESB study on the effects of EV's on the grid. They have concluded there is plenty capacity to add EV's (50% penetration possible in some urban areas, 20% in rural areas). We are a very very long way away from hitting those penetration figures so any incentives we add now won't jeopardise the grid.

http://www.cer.ie/docs/000413/CER16286b%20ESB%20eCars%20Pilot%20Project%20Report.PDF




I agree with all that.

Adding renewables doesn't increase capacity when you do not have near 100% availability.

Strangely enough adding renewables can in some circumstances lead to a higher CO2 output then if no renewables were on the grid.

KCross

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Adding renewables doesn't increase capacity when you do not have near 100% availability.

Strangely enough adding renewables can in some circumstances lead to a higher CO2 output then if no renewables were on the grid.

True. I'll retract the renewable piece for capacity. We are flopping between capacity and CO2 intensity on the thread so I mixed that up.

I suppose the main point is that there isn't a capacity issue to adding EV, which is what blinkinglights is suggesting.

BlinkingLights

Grid capacity is not generation capacity.

The grid can support lots of power but there isn't, at present, sufficient low / no CO2 generation capacity feeding it.

If you were going to seriously push mass adoption EV you would need to penalise peak use and once incentivise off peak charging in a much more dramatic way than now.

Smart metering for EV would be one approach that might make it work better while CO2 neutral capacity comes on stream.

I would also strongly advocate getting electric heating off the network entirely. It's absolutely crazy using electricity as a source of domestic heat in a country with very limited green electricity sources and it's waste or capacity that could be used for EVs or something useful!

Solar water heating, better insulation and very efficient natural gas boilers at present are probably the best we can do.

The logic of burning gas to boil water to make steam to spin generators to make electricity ... Transmit it over a lossy network and the use it to heat your house makes absolutely no sense when you can just burn a gas flame locally or use solar.

KCross

BlinkingLights wrote: »

Grid capacity is not generation capacity.

The grid can support lots of power but there isn't, at present, sufficient low / no CO2 generation capacity feeding it.

Are you refuting what ESB themselves have stated in the report I posted earlier?

Or are you talking about the day when every car is an EV?

BlinkingLights wrote: »

If you were going to seriously push mass adoption EV you would need to penalise peak use and once incentivise off peak charging in a much more dramatic way than now.

Nearly all EV's charge at night during off peak because thats the logical time to do it(car not in use) and because its the cheapest time to do it. I don't think any additional incentives are required to push people to night time charging of EV's.

BlinkingLights wrote: »

Smart metering for EV would be one approach that might make it work better while CO2 neutral capacity comes on stream.

I agree. That needs to happen too. It doesn't have to happen first though.

BlinkingLights wrote: »

I would also strongly advocate getting electric heating off the network entirely. It's absolutely crazy using electricity as a source of domestic heat in a country with very limited green electricity sources and it's waste or capacity that could be used for EVs or something useful!

Are you referring to heat pumps? Other than heat pumps I don't think many people use electric to heat their houses.... gas and oil burners primarily.

KCross

KCross wrote: »

.............




Are you referring to heat pumps? Other than heat pumps I don't think many people use electric to heat their houses.... gas and oil burners primarily.

Lots of apartments have electric heating "systems"

unkel

Yes, electric storage heating. A very rudimentary form of heating widely used in this country in cheap built apartments of the 90s and 00s (still done?). It's using night rate electricity to store heating in a block of concrete or something like that and the heating is than "released" during the day

I had it in the apartment I lived in for 4 years before I bought my house. Never used it

KCross

Augeo wrote: »

Lots of apartments have electric heating "systems"

Sure, I know it exists but I'd imagine its not a significant %. Does anyone have figures on that?

BlinkingLights

Speaking anecdotally, it seems to be quite a high % because landlords only care about the installation and maintenance costs.
Storage heating's very cheap to install but it's horrifically expensive to run. There are a lot of 80s, 90s and 2000s era stuff with electric heating. Typically it's storage heating in the main areas and full-rate normal radiant panels in the bedrooms and electric heating in the bathroom too.

Water John

There is a large queue of solar projects have applied to connect to the grid.
Certainly north of 2 Gw.
Solar will be a diffused RE source. A 5 Mw can plug into most substations in the country. Given the go ahead, it can be built and commissioned in about 14 weeks.
Such RE needs to be part of an integrated larger plan with EVs as a key component.
As another poster said, smart metering also.
To reduce a target by 90%, is an admission of, abject failure.

unkel

Water John wrote: »

There is a large queue of solar projects have applied to connect to the grid.
Certainly north of 2 Gw.
Solar will be a diffused RE source. A 5 Mw can plug into most substations in the country. Given the go ahead, it can be built and commissioned in about 14 weeks.
Such RE needs to be part of an integrated larger plan with EVs as a key component.
As another poster said, smart metering also.
To reduce a target by 90%, is an admission of, abject failure.

+1

Scotland is targeting to have 100% renewable electricity by 2020. They won't make it, but it will only be a few years over. Scotland!!! Our solar potential is much better than theirs. It would have been much easier for us to reach 100% renewable. Yet we only have wind. Zero solar...

Obviously we were harder hit by the recession and having to give the controls of the country to some foreign institutions didn't help, but we could have really picked up on this a few years ago when things were turning around. Instead we did.......nothing. Shame on us.

Water John

There are RE wind projects which applied to Grid 15 years ago and aren't still built or connected. Between Grid and Planning applications going round and round. Mad stuff.

Solar is parked with the last few years waiting for a Govn't to act. South of Ireland has the same solar resource as Germany.

BlinkingLights

There are significant numbers of solar farms seeking planning permission here, but of course massive of NIMBY objections obviously.

Water John

Even to get it to planning and basic grid application costs €50K. None of these projects are fly by night type.
What does this Minister want to achieve in the little time he will have in office? Don't see any of them ambitious, FG or Indo, to leave their mark.

bob mcbob

unkel wrote: »

+1

Scotland is targeting to have 100% renewable electricity by 2020. They won't make it, but it will only be a few years over. Scotland!!! Our solar potential is much better than theirs. It would have been much easier for us to reach 100% renewable. Yet we only have wind. Zero solar....

Scotland currently produces 58% electricity (8642MW) thru renewables. The main contributors are -

onshore wind - 6135
hydro - 1618
solar -312
plant biomass - 198
offshore wind - 187

It also has an additional 12,282 MW in planning / under construction. Of this the main areas are -

onshore wind - 7140
offshore wind - 4200
solar - 400
tidal - 340

At the end of 2015, Ireland had a renewable electricity capacity of 2486 MW. Almost all onshore wind.

Why talk about solar when there is still so far to go with onshore & offshore wind

Water John

Don't care where the RE comes from. Lets get on with it.

BlinkingLights

I don't quite understand why Ireland's offshore wind potential has not been developed really beyond the Arklow Bank project.

What's the issue?

It looks like the NIMBYism in Ireland is going to end up costing us billions in fines due to missing commitments we voluntarily agreed to and to missing EU legal obligations.

Water John

Price.

BlinkingLights

They're not factoring in the possible €5+ billion in fines though.

Water John

Every Dept. is looking at the next one. Environment, Natural Resources, Ag. The game is called, pass the buck.