All land transport will be powered by electricity by 2025

Alu

An interesting article about the prediction of Stanford University economist Tony Seba..

http://www.independent.ie/life/motoring/tipping-point-for-big-oil-and-autos-35737646.html

thierry14

Yes very interesting and a eye opener too

To me it looks like now is the best time to own an EV because when they do get popular governments are not going to lose billions in fuel taxes, they can't take those losses

Without fossil fuel demand countries and economies are going to be destroyed, I am not one for conspiracy theories but surely big oil must be very worried now and putting some plan together to halt this EV craze?

Anyways I think 2025 is about the time EV's do everything better than ICE

They will have better reliability, more power, cheaper, just as good range, refuel in minutes

When you can buy a Golf for 24k with 200bhp, 600km range, 10 year warranty, refuel in 5 mins it's over for ICE

BoatMad

thierry14 wrote: »

Anyways I think 2025 is about the time EV's do everything better than ICE


When you can buy a Golf for 24k with 200bhp, 600km range, 10 year warranty, refuel in 5 mins it's over for ICE

At the rate of current progress I expect the crossover will be 2020

The market for 200 bhp " hot hatches" cars is very small in comparison to mass market mid range " econoboxrs " . So it's not when your [snip] boy racer converts to EVs. It's when the " jones " family conveys. That day is very soon , less the.5 years in my opinion


Given the performance of electric motors so outpasses uce , the boy racers are likely to be the first to convert!!!

In 2018 why buy a VW 200 bhp when the same money buys you a tesla model 3 with DOUBLE the performance

thierry14

BoatMad wrote: »

thierry14 wrote: »

Anyways I think 2025 is about the time EV's do everything better than ICE


When you can buy a Golf for 24k with 200bhp, 600km range, 10 year warranty, refuel in 5 mins it's over for ICE

At the rate of current progress I expect the crossover will be 2020

The market for 200 bhp " hot hatches" cars is very small in comparison to mass market mid range " econoboxrs " . So it's not when your idiotic boy racer converts to EVs. It's when the " jones " family conveys. That day is very soon , less the.5 years in my opinion


Given the performance of electric motors so outpasses uce , the boy racers are likely to be the first to convert!!!

In 2018 why buy a VW 200 bhp when the same money buys you a tesla model 3 with DOUBLE the performance

Model 3 will be nearly 50k [snip]
What buy racers have that?
.5 years is for the cheapskates/crazy commuters/geeks/eco people
Your Jones family are a long way off yet I am afraid

Evd-Burner

thierry14 wrote:

Model 3 will be nearly 50k genius What buy racers have that? .5 years is for the cheapskates/crazy commuters/geeks/eco people Your Jones family are a long way off yet I am afraid

Right now is for the cheapskates/crazy commuters/geeks/eco people, the Jones family are 5 years off.

uphillonly

Thought provoking article but a sloppy headline. Not all vehicles but all new vehicles which is may be closer to reality in some countries by then.

Actual quote: "What the cost curve says is that by 2025 all new vehicles will be electric, all new buses, all new cars, all new tractors, all new vans, anything that moves on wheels will be electric, globally," Prof Seba said.

Calahonda52

https://www.rte.ie/lifestyle/motors/2017/0520/876698-petrol-and-diesel-engines-have-a-lifespan-of-only-8-years/
Same topic different heading 😎

ELM327

Evd-Burner wrote: »

Right now is for the cheapskates/crazy commuters/geeks/eco people, the Jones family are 5 years off.

I guess I am a cheapskate crazy commuter geek so.

The only things stopping the mass adoption of the current range of EVs (ZE40, Ioniq, 30kWh leaf) IMO are:
-Price (still more expensive sticker price than an equivalent ice)
-Sheeple mentality (people stick to what they know, and are only interested in the sticker price not the TCO)

oppenheimer1

ELM327 wrote: »

I guess I am a cheapskate crazy commuter geek so.

The only things stopping the mass adoption of the current range of EVs (ZE40, Ioniq, 30kWh leaf) IMO are:
-Price (still more expensive sticker price than an equivalent ice)
-Sheeple mentality (people stick to what they know, and are only interested in the sticker price not the TCO)

You can add to that:

• Range
• Charge speed
• Charging infrastructure

Additionally, most people don't buy new cars and the second hand EV market is very small.

ELM327

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

You can add to that:

• Range
• Charge speed
• Charging infrastructure

Additionally, most people don't buy new cars and the second hand EV market is very small.

Range -> sheeple mentality
New Zoe has 300km real world range, which up until a few years ago was the range of most small city cars. AFAIR the e60 m5 had a similar range but I stand o be corrected on that.

Charge speed -> Partially agree on this one, the newer cars like the Ioniq are a step in the right direction.

Infrastructure -> agree on this one, there is currently an impasse between the CER and esb over the network and there will be no improvements until it is resolvbd.

pwurple

Evd-Burner wrote: »

Right now is for the cheapskates/crazy commuters/geeks/eco people, the Jones family are 5 years off.

I wonder which I am.

Family with 2.x children, about 18,000km yearly mileage.

Geeks, maybe... both of us parents are engineers.

Cheapskates? I don't think anyone who buys a brand new car is a cheapskate. But yeah, I prefer money in my bank account to in the pocket of the taxman.

Eco people. Not really. Meat-eating, leather wearing, have plenty of plastic toys in the house.

Crazy commuter? What is this even?

Evd-Burner

ELM327 wrote: »

I guess I am a cheapskate crazy commuter geek so.

The only things stopping the mass adoption of the current range of EVs (ZE40, Ioniq, 30kWh leaf) IMO are:
-Price (still more expensive sticker price than an equivalent ice)
-Sheeple mentality (people stick to what they know, and are only interested in the sticker price not the TCO)

pwurple wrote: »

I wonder which I am.

Family with 2.x children, about 18,000km yearly mileage.

Geeks, maybe... both of us parents are engineers.

Cheapskates? I don't think anyone who buys a brand new car is a cheapskate. But yeah, I prefer money in my bank account to in the pocket of the taxman.

Eco people. Not really. Meat-eating, leather wearing, have plenty of plastic toys in the house.

Crazy commuter? What is this even?

WE, are the smart ones

Cian_ok

ELM327 wrote: »

I guess I am a cheapskate crazy commuter geek so.

The only things stopping the mass adoption of the current range of EVs (ZE40, Ioniq, 30kWh leaf) IMO are:
-Price (still more expensive sticker price than an equivalent ice)
-Sheeple mentality (people stick to what they know, and are only interested in the sticker price not the TCO)

One thing not mentioned is electricity generation. We import 2.3 billion l of petrol and diesel each year. This is about 35 TWh of energy.
We currently generate about 25 TWh of electricity. So for every 100,000 vehicles that are replaced by electric we need an extra 1.75TWh of generation... 4 new power stations.

We'll need to start now if we want to replace oil with electric.

P'S there is a total of 3 TWh of wind in Ireland at the

KCross

Cian_ok wrote: »

One thing not mentioned is electricity generation. We import 2.3 billion l of petrol and diesel each year. This is about 35 TWh of energy.
We currently generate about 25 TWh of electricity. So for every 100,000 vehicles that are replaced by electric we need an extra 1.75TWh of generation... 4 new power stations.

We'll need to start now if we want to replace oil with electric.

P'S there is a total of 3 TWh of wind in Ireland at the

Two big flaws in your figures.

- You are ignoring the significant capacity that already exists at night time, which is when most people charge EVs

- EVs are significantly more efficient that petrol/diesel so it's not a 1-1 mapping of kWh's

Cian_ok

KCross wrote: »

Two big flaws in your figures.

- You are ignoring the significant capacity that already exists at night time, which is when most people charge EVs

- EVs are significantly more efficient that petrol/diesel so it's not a 1-1 mapping of kWh's

I had forgotten about nighttime capacity. So we're okay for the first, say, 10% electric cars. But then we run out of capacity.

Yes, EV are more efficient than ICE if you compare tank-to-engine Vs battery-to-engine. However if you look at generation-to-battery-to-engine vs tank-to-engine then you're looking at similar inefficiencies.

Marcusm

Alu wrote: »

An interesting article about the prediction of Stanford University economist Tony Seba..

http://www.independent.ie/life/motoring/tipping-point-for-big-oil-and-autos-35737646.html

Entirely misleading headline by the Indo. Even if they started today, I don't believe it would be possible to electrify the US's railrfreight network by 2025. And that is definitely land transportation!

Mooooo

Infrastructure is the biggest thing. Charging trucks buses etc. Even here just for arguments sake on a farm 2 cars, tractor and loader. Four machines to charge over night with also a milking machine and bulk tank compressor going. Not to mind automated scrapers and other equipment during winter. Got in 3 phase for parlour and bulk tank and was fortunate as line was passing us, only cost 2k I know lads quoted up to 40k for 3 phase supply

Cian_ok

Mooooo wrote: »

Infrastructure is the biggest thing. Charging trucks buses etc. Even here just for arguments sake on a farm 2 cars, tractor and loader. Four machines to charge over night with also a milking machine and bulk tank compressor going. Not to mind automated scrapers and other equipment during winter. Got in 3 phase for parlour and bulk tank and was fortunate as line was passing us, only cost 2k I know lads quoted up to 40k for 3 phase supply

Same problem will occur on every urban street. Imagine all houses looking to charge their cars overnight.

KCross

Cian_ok wrote: »

I had forgotten about nighttime capacity. So we're okay for the first, say, 10% electric cars. But then we run out of capacity.

Yes, EV are more efficient than ICE if you compare tank-to-engine Vs battery-to-engine. However if you look at generation-to-battery-to-engine vs tank-to-engine then you're looking at similar inefficiencies.

The grid today is good for upto 60% EV penetration in some urban areas because the capacity is there. The rural areas are a bigger issue (20% capable) and some grid upgrades will be required on a case by case basis. The ESB have done extensive research on it and it's publicly available on the CER website.

Do you have figures to share on the efficiencies. I dont believe you!

EV charging is 90+% efficient. What efficiency figures do you have to bring an EV down to the 20-30% efficiency figure of a petrol/Diesel engine?

TheRiverman

Is Professor Seba for real?.

goz83

TheRiverman wrote: »

Is Professor Seba for real?.

Is that a real question, or do you have anything to add?

I personally think it's not far off. The tech is seeing massive growth.

Sam Kade

TheRiverman wrote: »

Is Professor Seba for real?.

He's an expert he surely knows what he's talking about, expert in what though. It's some wild claim.

Sam Kade

goz83 wrote: »

Is that a real question, or do you have anything to add?

I personally think it's not far off. The tech is seeing massive growth.

Do you honestly think that everyone will scrap their combustion engine cars and buy electric cars in 8 years?

fricatus

Sam Kade wrote: »

Do you honestly think that everyone will scrap their combustion engine cars and buy electric cars in 8 years?

Well we switched to diesel pretty quickly once the tax changed in 2008. Not sure we'll just scrap ICE cars, but the transition in the sales figures will be quick, and then the replacement cycle over the next 15 years will do the rest.

I predict that petrol and diesel will eventually be increasingly hard to come by, and that will kill off the holdouts. ICE cars will only be for the enthusiasts and collectors at that point.

sgalvin

Burning of gas to generate electricity is ca 50% efficient at best less distribution losses and charging losses puts it close to a modern diesel in "efficiency" % (from an energy perspective only)

PRIVATE CARS
Cars (non commercial) in average annual distance of 17,000km or 50 km/day. This requires 10 kWh of energy.
Assuming that this carefull spread out over off peak from 00.00 to 07.00 that is a night base load of 1.5kW per car.

2 million cars means 3,000 MW load.
( can someone check my maths!)

This sort of change moves the base load significantly and brings on more peaking plant which are less thermallly Efficient such as gas turbines etc.

TOTAL ROAD FLEET
Last year taxed vehicle fuel sold was 4,500,000,000 litres.
or
12,500,000 litres/day
With a vehicle efficiency of 33%
This is 42,000,000 kWh of electricity.
Over the same 7 hour night rate this is a baseline of 6,000 MW.

KCross wrote: »

The grid today is good for upto 60% EV penetration in some urban areas because the capacity is there. The rural areas are a bigger issue (20% capable) and some grid upgrades will be required on a case by case basis. The ESB have done extensive research on it and it's publicly available on the CER website.

Do you have figures to share on the efficiencies. I dont believe you!

EV charging is 90+% efficient. What efficiency figures do you have to bring an EV down to the 20-30% efficiency figure of a petrol/Diesel engine?

unkel

Sam Kade wrote: »

Do you honestly think that everyone will scrap their combustion engine cars and buy electric cars in 8 years?

Can't see it happen in 8 years time, but it will happen and a lot sooner than people think. That is if enough EVs can be produced, which remains to be seen. If you're looking for a small or medium size family car and your daily drive is under 200km (70k km per year - who does more than that???) , it's already a no brainer, but only about 1% of the people in this country realise that

And the combustion engine cars that nobody will want anymore, maybe export them to the third world? That said, they'd prefer EVs over there too by then. China and India are already rapidly progressing towards it. As fricatus reckons, only a few enthusiast cars will remain. I'm keeping mine, but only because it is not high value. If it was, I'd play safe and sell it soon.

Cian_ok

KCross wrote: »

.
EV charging is 90+% efficient. What efficiency figures do you have to bring an EV down to the 20-30% efficiency figure of a petrol/Diesel engine?

where did you get 90% efficient? That is just the battery. You need to get the power to the socket. Convert to DC. Push into battery. Convert back to AC. And finally drive the motor.

If we ignore any inefficiency on the generation and just include electricity network (93%), inverter (95%), battery (90%), inverter (95%), and motor (90%) we get 68%.

This is still better than an ICE but not massively.

TheRiverman

goz83 wrote: »

Is that a real question, or do you have anything to add?

I personally think it's not far off. The tech is seeing massive growth.

I am a sceptic and believe it is a very wild prediction by Professor Seba.

josip

Sam Kade wrote: »

Do you honestly think that everyone will scrap their combustion engine cars and buy electric cars in 8 years?

Speaking for ourselves, we usually buy new and keep for 10 years.
Our 2 year old diesel will be due for replacement in 8 years time.
At which time we'll definitely be buying EV.

RandomAccess

I would have thought we should have seen a noticeable shift to electrics in light goods vehicles and local delivery fleets by now but it seems not to have been the case. Post vans etc.

If fleets aren't moving to EV yet are we really on track?

jimmycrackcorm

ELM327 wrote:

Range -> sheeple mentality New Zoe has 300km real world range, which up until a few years ago was the range of most small city cars. AFAIR the e60 m5 had a similar range but I stand o be corrected on that.

Arguing that for range with the Zoe is like saying people would pick a Micra over the popular Tucson.

Range is a big problem because though you might do short journeys most of the time, the long journeys are a problem. I always stop for a break on a three to four hour trip but what if you needed a charge point then only to find all being used.

Water John

Connolly of Aarburg University says we will need to quadruple our electric generation for a full carbon neutral country.
Not just cars. John Deere have a tractor that will do 4 hours on batteries.
Volvo have this prototype battery digger capable of doing 8 hours on a single charge.

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/watch-volvos-100-electric-mini-digger-in-action/

oppenheimer1

TheRiverman wrote: »

Is Professor Seba for real?.

I think his report is fundamentally flawed in that it doesn't show the effects of what a persistent low price of oil will do to transportation. He also rather baselessly states that autonomous vehicles will gain widespread acceptance by 2021 which is the foundation of his timeline.

Anyway it looks like no one here has actually read his study and based their opinion on a flawed synopsis presented in the media. What he argues is essentially that private car ownership both of EV and ICE days are numbered and that the future is "transport as a service" (TaaS).

Water John

What will force TaaS is by increasing congestion and parking charges. This will be mainly a city option.

sdanseo

Cian_ok wrote: »

where did you get 90% efficient? That is just the battery. You need to get the power to the socket. Convert to DC. Push into battery. Convert back to AC. And finally drive the motor.

If we ignore any inefficiency on the generation and just include electricity network (93%), inverter (95%), battery (90%), inverter (95%), and motor (90%) we get 68%.

This is still better than an ICE but not massively.

A bit more than improvement. 68% vs 20-30% is a two to three fold increase in efficiency.

That's leaps and bounds.

Whatever happened diesel electric cars in the train-engine sense. A diesel motor which kicks in to charge the batteries when needed, allowing the longer range when you want it but much equally you could go six months and never use it. No direct drive from ICE to the wheels, purely a source of electric power.

Most of the vehicles (correct me if I'm wrong) we're seeing as hybrid now are direct drive engines kicking in when needed. Is the former not more efficient?

BoatMad

Water John wrote: »

What will force TaaS is by increasing congestion and parking charges. This will be mainly a city option.

US centric thinking. In Europe the trend is to remove cars ( of all sorts ) from urban centres.

Hence urban commuting will trend towards less and less cars ( autonomous or otherwise )

Personally prediciting tech directions as a precursor to societal changes is a very dangerous game. I think car sharing and full Road autonomous cars are decades away

goz83

Sam Kade wrote: »

Do you honestly think that everyone will scrap their combustion engine cars and buy electric cars in 8 years?

Everyone? No. There will be a minority of people who will cling on for as long as possible. Some will be enthusiasts and others will just be stubborn mules. I just hope that all the diesels disappear.

What I see happening is that by 2025, almost all road transport sold will be EV. After that, it's just a matter of time before ICE transport disappears, as they become old and expensive to run.


One thing I don't accept, is the argument that people make regarding personal transport disappearing. I can't see this happening inside the next 50 years, let alone 8 years. Cars are used for more than commuting to work. I work from home and the OH has a 15klm commute. We have 2 cars when many would say we only need 1. I like to potter about and run errands and I wouldn't be into ordering a car service like a taxi each time I wanted to leave the house and go somewhere. I like having a personal car and I don't imagine ever not having one.

KCross

Cian_ok wrote: »

where did you get 90% efficient? That is just the battery. You need to get the power to the socket. Convert to DC. Push into battery. Convert back to AC. And finally drive the motor.

If we ignore any inefficiency on the generation and just include electricity network (93%), inverter (95%), battery (90%), inverter (95%), and motor (90%) we get 68%.

This is still better than an ICE but not massively.

The 90% I am referring to is the efficiency from the socket to the battery (including inverters etc that you mention above). This is relatively easy to confirm (I've done so myself) by having a kWh meter on your charge point and you can see how many kWh's "made it into" the battery via the LeafSpy app. That portion of the process is 90+% efficient and a verifiable figure.

I don't have figures for the efficiency of the Irish power generation or the transmission losses, which is why I asked for your figures. I am still skeptical that the overall process would bring it down to the 20-30% figure of petrol/diesel, bearing in mind we have an increasing supply of renewables as well, but maybe you are right. I must do some digging myself.

I guess the main point I wanted to get across is that your initial figure of 4 extra power stations for every 100k EV's is wildly inaccurate. If that were true there is zero chance of EV's taking off.

Discodog

Many people are forced to buy cheap cars. There won't be cheap electrics for a long time & the replacement battery & motor costs will be high. Then add in the inability for home maintenance & a huge industry that sells petrol.

It may happen in cities & high public transport countries, but it won't happen here for decades.

KCross

Discodog wrote: »

Many people are forced to buy cheap cars. There won't be cheap electrics for a long time

Plenty of cheap Leaf's out there. The Leaf isn't to everyones taste, of course. Its the lack of choice at the moment is a big issue and before the normal looking EV's make it on to the 2nd hand market it will be 2020+

Discodog wrote: »

the replacement battery & motor costs will be high.

They don't require replacing. There is some range loss on the battery and you can replace individual modules at reasonable cost. You don't have to replace the entire battery.

I haven't heard of the motors requiring replacement.

Discodog wrote: »

Then add in the inability for home maintenance & a huge industry that sells petrol.

What home maintenance? There isn't anything to maintain other than brakes which are the same as any car. Even when you service an EV at a main dealer all they do is inspect it and change the cabin filter. There are no serviceable parts.

Discodog wrote: »

It may happen in cities & high public transport countries, but it won't happen here for decades.

I'd largely agree that the 2025 figure thrown out is BS. I think he was looking for a headline for himself. It might happen in some more forward thinking cities that are banning petrol/diesel in their cities but its a long way off for this country.

Discodog

KCross wrote: »

Plenty of cheap Leaf's out there. The Leaf isn't to everyones taste, of course. Its the lack of choice at the moment is a big issue and before the normal looking EV's make it on to the 2nd hand market it will be 2020+



They don't require replacing. There is some range loss on the battery and you can replace individual modules at reasonable cost. You don't have to replace the entire battery.

I haven't heard of the motors requiring replacement.

I can't see a Leaf being one or two thousand. Of course they will need replacing. All batteries have a maximum number of recharge cycles. Just one cell is probably more than some pay for their entire car.

Motors won't go on for ever & because nothing is serviceable, the replacements will be expensive.





What home maintenance? There isn't anything to maintain other than brakes which are the same as any car. Even when you service an EV at a main dealer all they do is inspect it and change the cabin filter. There are no serviceable parts.




I'd largely agree that the 2025 figure thrown out is BS. I think he was looking for a headline for himself. It might happen in some more forward thinking cities that are banning petrol/diesel in their cities but its a long way off for this country.

I can't see a Leaf being one or two thousand. Of course they will need replacing. All batteries have a maximum number of recharge cycles. Just one cell is probably more than some pay for their entire car.

Motors won't go on for ever & because nothing is serviceable, the replacements will be expensive.


As the numbers grow we will hear increasing stories of people being stranded or unable to use their vehicle in an emergency. I would consider a hybrid, if it was cheap enough, but I could never risk just pure electric until it always has, say 50%, remaining charge.

Today's cost savings are temporary. Governments will make the cost the same as ICE cars. They aren't going to lose the revenue.

Oh & I will open a theme park where people can drive huge gas guzzlers for fun

josip

Discodog wrote: »

Many people are forced to buy cheap cars. There won't be cheap electrics for a long time & the replacement battery & motor costs will be high. Then add in the inability for home maintenance & a huge industry that sells petrol.

It may happen in cities & high public transport countries, but it won't happen here for decades.

The current generation of electric cars will be almost as cheap/worthless as diesels by 2025.

ELM327

josip wrote: »

The current generation of electric cars will be almost as cheap/worthless as diesels by 2025.

Define worthless?
In 2025 any car that is bought now will not have even 12% residual value.
Buying a car by what it will be worth in 8-10-12 years is not financially prudent.

sgalvin

I did that a few weeks back. Drove my electric car to a petrol go kart track with my son.

Drove around in circles for an hour enjoyed the sounds and the smells, got back into my car and back to silence and no smell.

Petrol will go the way of the horse and second a toy. I can't see anyone missing diesel.

Discodog wrote: »

Oh & I will open a theme park where people can drive huge gas guzzlers for fun

unkel

josip wrote: »

The current generation of electric cars will be almost as cheap/worthless as diesels by 2025.

Can't agree there. Already a well old and first gen EV like a 6 year old Leaf can not be had for less than €6k, even though it likely already had severe enough battery degradation. It's still perfectly fine as a local / school run / second car

And come 2025 the current 2017 EVs will be the same (but with less battery degradation). Remember these are cars that once purchased, will have a running costs of almost zero and have no maintenance.

By 2025 the 2017 diesels will most likely be taxed out of existence. Or even banned from the cities. They will be almost worthless by then. Whatever you do, don't buy any more brand new diesels or you will come to regret it (unless you change car every year or two years)

josip

unkel wrote: »

Can't agree there. Already a well old and first gen EV like a 6 year old Leaf can not be had for less than €6k

Add another 2 years depreciation on to that and it will be fairly cheap.

unkel wrote: »

And come 2025 the current 2017 EVs will be the same (but with less battery degradation). Remember these are cars that once purchased, will have a running costs of almost zero and have no maintenance.

A 2017 EV will be 8 years old in 2025, not 6 years.
Whereas there's limited competition in the EV family car segment now and residuals are still decent, by 2025 I expect all the major manufacturers will be cutting each others' throats for market share.
Your Ioniq mightn't fare too badly with the adequate range and nice shape, but today's Leafs might as well be repurposed as battery backups for solar panels.

unkel wrote: »

By 2025 the 2017 diesels will most likely be taxed out of existence. Or even banned from the cities. They will be almost worthless by then. Whatever you do, don't buy any more brand new diesels or you will come to regret it (unless you change car every year or two years)

Completely agree with you on this.

thierry14

RandomAccess wrote: »

I would have thought we should have seen a noticeable shift to electrics in light goods vehicles and local delivery fleets by now but it seems not to have been the case. Post vans etc.

If fleets aren't moving to EV yet are we really on track?

Agree

They are not a better product yet for distribution/commercial companies

They would have bought already and enjoyed the huge savings if they were

Choice is very poor and charging infrastructure is alot of hassle

Imagine trying to charge a fleet of 100 trucks/vans in a distributuon companies yard every night

Investment costs in infrastructure would be huge for companies already getting good deals from automakers and topaz etc

EV's for the moment have such a poor choice even for consumers

The leaf is a rotten looking thing, Zoe a Clio and Ioniq while much better than the other 2 is nothing special

While Vw and BMW etc have priced out there efforts

I might be wrong but I just can't see electric taking over completely so fast

Big oil can drop prices massively while still making profit and Hybrids could be the big thing

If petrol was way cheaper and Hybrids were well priced what would incentives me to go electric and all the hassle that brings?

Government wont tax Hybrids like diesels

Big oil and large automakers would be delighted

ELM327

It's not Big Oil though, it's "Big Taxation" to use your terms.
Over 50% of the pump price is tax.

thierry14

ELM327 wrote: »

It's not Big Oil though, it's "Big Taxation" to use your terms.
Over 50% of the pump price is tax.

EV's are going to have the same problem

Governments won't let revenues drop, they can't

Running costs will be similar in the future for both

KCross

KCross wrote: »

The 90% I am referring to is the efficiency from the socket to the battery (including inverters etc that you mention above). This is relatively easy to confirm (I've done so myself) by having a kWh meter on your charge point and you can see how many kWh's "made it into" the battery via the LeafSpy app. That portion of the process is 90+% efficient and a verifiable figure.

I don't have figures for the efficiency of the Irish power generation or the transmission losses, which is why I asked for your figures. I am still skeptical that the overall process would bring it down to the 20-30% figure of petrol/diesel, bearing in mind we have an increasing supply of renewables as well, but maybe you are right. I must do some digging myself.

I guess the main point I wanted to get across is that your initial figure of 4 extra power stations for every 100k EV's is wildly inaccurate. If that were true there is zero chance of EV's taking off.

Interesting figures from the SEAI here. I don't know how accurate their figures are but I presume they are in the ballpark. However, they are based on 2008 power generation figures and a lot of renewable has been added to the grid in the last 3 years, not to mind the last 9, so I would expect that the EV figure would be much better today if recalculated:

http://www.seai.ie/Grants/Electric_Vehicle_Grant_Scheme/I_am_a_consumer/Power_Station_to_Wheels/

Even at 2008 figures the EV is still twice as efficient as ICE (17% vs 34%) and the EV efficiency figure is projected to rise to 44% by 2020. Even if you use the better 25% figure for ICE, EV is still significantly more efficient and will only improve as time progresses (Solar PV now coming on stream as well).

_Brian

I think that people doing sub 10k km a year are loosing the run of themselves a bit with these predictions.
Is there EV technology in the pipeline for people doing 50k kms a year ?? How about those of us that pull trailers regularly.

Really ALL land transport within 8 years.
I think 60/70% is attainable, but going on to 100% - I can't see it happening.

10 years ago they said every house would have 100mb broadband, I'm working on sub 10mb and there are no plans in place for that to improve for the next 5-10 years.