Epsom Derby 2017

tryfix

Now that the 2,000 Guineas is out of the way it's time for the proper Derby Trials to get started and the Derby itself is only 4 weeks away.

At the moment the race is wide open with favourite Churchill unlikely to be taking in the race.

Prices at the moment are quite decent outside of the first few in the betting who have massive holes in their own chances.

Best Prices

Churchill 5/1 unlikely to run
Cracksman 8/1 has yet to show he's up to this level
Barney Roy 10/1 needs to be supplemented, but more likely to go for St James Palace Stakes
Cliffs Of Mother 12/1 has very decent 2yo form not seen out as a 3yo
Eminent 12/1 could bounce back on his moderate Guineas run
Waldgeist 16/1 has top class group 1 2yo winning form over 10f on soft ground and returns in a GP 2 in France tomorrow
16/1 Sir John Lavery
20/1 bar including the likes of Yucatan 20/1, Douglas Macarthur 20/1, Capri 25/1, Rivet 25/1, Order Of The Garter 25/1, Rekindling 25/1 etc.

There's got to be something at a big price now that's going to explode onto the Derby scene with the trials taking place over the next 2 weeks.

Opinions!

WickIow Brave

Orderofthegarter is 16s in most places atm and if he lines up he is the most likely winner imo.

Francie Barrett

tryfix wrote: »

Waldgeist 16/1 has top class group 1 2yo winning form over 10f on soft ground and returns in a GP 2 in France tomorrow

I hope this race gets the full attention it deserves because two interesting things are happening in it.

The first horse running in it is the one you've mentioned. It's out of Galileo and is owned in partnership with "the lads", so presumably they would be fine if it was the Derby winner this year. The French don't usually have many winners at the Derby, but then again they don't get many Galileo's either, and with the form that this one is in, I think it might just be a little underpriced and under the radar with it being in France and with its trial coming on a Monday. Best price 16/1.

The second interesting horse to go in this race is Akihiro, progeny of Deep Impact, and again, it's rare to see a horse out of it abroad. We know this horse is bred to stay a Derby trip and we know how strong the Deep Impact phenomenon has been in Japan. Waldgeist's form looks the stronger, but it'll be interesting to see how Akihiro gets on. With Andre Fabre training both and making noises about the Derby for both, you'd be thinking the winner will be sent over to compete. Best price 33/1.

WickIow Brave

Also a mention to Exemplar at 33s, not sure when we'll see him though.

tryfix

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I hope this race gets the full attention it deserves because two interesting things are happening in it.

The first horse running in it is the one you've mentioned. It's out of Galileo and is owned in partnership with "the lads", so presumably they would be fine if it was the Derby winner this year. The French don't usually have many winners at the Derby, but then again they don't get many Galileo's either, and with the form that this one is in, I think it might just be a little underpriced and under the radar with it being in France and with its trial coming on a Monday. Best price 16/1.

The second interesting horse to go in this race is Akihiro, progeny of Deep Impact, and again, it's rare to see a horse out of it abroad. We know this horse is bred to stay a Derby trip and we know how strong the Deep Impact phenomenon has been in Japan. Waldgeist's form looks the stronger, but it'll be interesting to see how Akihiro gets on. With Andre Fabre training both and making noises about the Derby for both, you'd be thinking the winner will be sent over to compete. Best price 33/1.

Waldgeist has great 2yo form beating all the O'Brien B team and the Frankel B team that day but 10f on Soft ground at the end of the season doesn't scream Epsom Derby on firm ground in June.

I think Taj Mahal may be a key form horse, he was beaten just 3L in Waldgeist's race and on the tail of the likes of Capri, Douglas Macarthur, etc with the Frankel B team of Cunco and Frankuus behind that day.

He's no world beater, he was beaten 3 1/2L by Order Of The Garter over a mile at the start of the season but he was running on which makes me wary of OOTG. A horse I do like is Cliffs Of Mother, and a horse with bags of stamina who made OOTG look like a tree when he beat him 5L as a 2yo.

The European Deep Impact's have been poor for such an awesome sire, the one that has caught my eye is Pavlenko whose dam is the Galileo filly Maybe. He finished 3rd today over an inadequate 1 mile trip at Leopardstown after making up a lot of ground towards the end. Hardly likely to win a Derby but he should be capable of winning a few races.

It'd be nice to find a horse with a chance in the Derby who wasn't a Galileo or a Frankel. Maybe Rekindling can do it for Joseph or Rivet but he's out of a Galileo mare.

I said

Sir John Lavery lurking in the shadows

diomed

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Orderofthegarter is 16s in most places atm and if he lines up he is the most likely winner imo.

I thought I was the only person who ever heard of this horse.
Antepost has burned me many times with non-runners but I have a little Orderofthegarter at 50.2 and Best Of Days at 36.2.

Orderofthegarter's 11 lengths win at Naas on soft/heavy compared ok with the time of the Fillies & mares races that preceded it *
* (different ages, different weights but it included Somehow in 2nd, and she has won twice since incl an easy win at Newmarket in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes before the 1000 Guineas).
Orderofthegarter's Naas race had 20 runners and they were well strung out with the 10th home 31 lengths behind him.

Francie Barrett

tryfix wrote: »

Waldgeist has great 2yo form beating all the O'Brien B team and the Frankel B team that day but 10f on Soft ground at the end of the season doesn't scream Epsom Derby on firm ground in June.

I think Taj Mahal may be a key form horse, he was beaten just 3L in Waldgeist's race and on the tail of the likes of Capri, Douglas Macarthur, etc with the Frankel B team of Cunco and Frankuus behind that day.

He's no world beater, he was beaten 3 1/2L by Order Of The Garter over a mile at the start of the season but he was running on which makes me wary of OOTG. A horse I do like is Cliffs Of Mother, and a horse with bags of stamina who made OOTG look like a tree when he beat him 5L as a 2yo.

The European Deep Impact's have been poor for such an awesome sire, the one that has caught my eye is Pavlenko whose dam is the Galileo filly Maybe. He finished 3rd today over an inadequate 1 mile trip at Leopardstown after making up a lot of ground towards the end. Hardly likely to win a Derby but he should be capable of winning a few races.

It'd be nice to find a horse with a chance in the Derby who wasn't a Galileo or a Frankel. Maybe Rekindling can do it for Joseph or Rivet but he's out of a Galileo mare.

There's obviously plenty of trials to go, but without anything especially standing out, if Waldgeist puts in a decent performance today in a good time, then I think it has to be backed. Apparently Andre Fabre was spitting feathers after O'Brien's interference playing at the Guineas. I'd say he will be absolutely eager for revenge at the Derby.

The Akihiro horse is interesting, but best watched. It'd need to put in a top quality performance for me to consider it.

WickIow Brave

diomed wrote: »

I thought I was the only person who ever heard of this horse.
Antepost has burned me many times with non-runners but I have a little Orderofthegarter at 50.2 and Best Of Days at 36.2.

Orderofthegarter's 11 lengths win at Naas on soft/heavy compared ok with the time of the Fillies & mares races that preceded it *
* (different ages, different weights but it included Somehow in 2nd, and she has won twice since incl an easy win at Newmarket in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes before the 1000 Guineas).
Orderofthegarter's Naas race had 20 runners and they were well strung out with the 10th home 31 lengths behind him.

Yeah he's going under the radar a bit. I wouldn't read his loss to Cliffs of Moher literally. COM got a big lead on him and OOTG was actually closing on him by the end. It's also possible that OOTG could well have improved past COM. COM could well be an absolute aeroplane but I think OOTG would be more suited to the Derby. OOTG beat Taj Mahal by 3.75l but it could have been nearer to 10l if he was asked imo. Apparently Caravaggio isn't going to the French Guineas anymore so it's likely OOTG could go there now and if he runs very well they may go to the Derby with him. Churchill will then probably go Irish Guineas/SJP route. I don't know if Coolmoore want to be relying just on Capri/DMac/Yucatan for the Derby. OOTG or COM will be their number 1, with the other one probably going to the Prix du Jockey Club.

tryfix

Francie Barrett wrote: »

There's obviously plenty of trials to go, but without anything especially standing out, if Waldgeist puts in a decent performance today in a good time, then I think it has to be backed. Apparently Andre Fabre was spitting feathers after O'Brien's interference playing at the Guineas. I'd say he will be absolutely eager for revenge at the Derby.

The Akihiro horse is interesting, but best watched. It'd need to put in a top quality performance for me to consider it.

We'll know in 35 or so minutes whether Waldgeist is likely to be going to Epsom. His owner complicates matter as he owned Hurricane Run when he finished 2nd in the 10f Jockey Club to Shamardal. That really peed him off and led to his breeding Lope De Vega by Shamardal. He may be more inclined towards the Jockey Club than Epsom but we will see.

Francie Barrett

tryfix wrote: »

We'll know in 35 or so minutes whether Waldgeist is likely to be going to Epsom. His owner complicates matter as he owned Hurricane Run when he finished 2nd in the 10f Jockey Club to Shamardal. That really peed him off and led to his breeding Lope De Vega by Shamardal. He may be more inclined towards the Jockey Club than Epsom but we will see.

Waldgeist 2nd in what looks a slow enough time.

tryfix

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Waldgeist 2nd in what looks a slow enough time.

A promising enough performance, the jockey never touched him while Akihiro was flogged to try and get past him but couldn't get the better of him despite being ahead of him at one stage. On that performance and on how long it took for him to get going in his 2yo GP 1 win, he now looks likely to head to Epsom not the shorter Jockey club.

A worthy outsider if he makes it to Epsom.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

I thought I was the only person who ever heard of this horse.
Antepost has burned me many times with non-runners but I have a little Orderofthegarter at 50.2 and Best Of Days at 36.2.

Orderofthegarter's 11 lengths win at Naas on soft/heavy compared ok with the time of the Fillies & mares races that preceded it *
* (different ages, different weights but it included Somehow in 2nd, and she has won twice since incl an easy win at Newmarket in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes before the 1000 Guineas).
Orderofthegarter's Naas race had 20 runners and they were well strung out with the 10th home 31 lengths behind him.

I was assuming that he might be another The Gurkha, a wide distance maiden winner that'd go for the French or Irish Guineas and on to the SJP stakes or the Prix Du Jockey Club.

madmoose

Sir John Lavery will be 6/1 when he wins at Chester this week.

Francie Barrett

tryfix wrote: »

A promising enough performance, the jockey never touched him while Akihiro was flogged to try and get past him but couldn't get the better of him despite being ahead of him at one stage. On that performance and on how long it took for him to get going in his 2yo GP 1 win, he now looks likely to head to Epsom not the shorter Jockey club.

A worthy outsider if he makes it to Epsom.

I had the race clocked at 2:13.5ish, even for very soft, this is not a particularly fast time for this race. Sumbal which won in 2015 over the same going and did it in just over 2:13 and it hasn't exactly went on to pull up trees.

Back to the drawing board to try and find the winner.

madmoose

Can someone dig up the information on the best derby trials, in worknso cant look but aren't the epsom one and lingfield usually the poorest in terms of an epsom winner?

WickIow Brave

madmoose wrote: »

Can someone dig up the information on the best derby trials, in worknso cant look but aren't the epsom one and lingfield usually the poorest in terms of an epsom winner?

Guineas, Dante, and the Derrinstown have been the best trials this century with majority of Derby winners since 2000 coming from those three races but a few not actually winning them. APOB has used Chester aswell then for his more inexperienced horses with Ruler of the World winning and US Army Ranger second at Epsom.

WickIow Brave

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Waldgeist 2nd in what looks a slow enough time.

They've crawled through the race and it turned into a 2f sprint. I wouldn't write him off at all. Just a prep for Epsom and the French hardly even treat preps as races. If the Derby comes up with a bit of ease in the ground, I'd give him a massive chance. Couldn't have him if there's firm in the description though.

diomed

What jumped out to me about Orderofthegarter was the winning distance of 11 lengths at Naas in a twenty runner maiden. It wouldn’t look as good if it was a three runner race. In the back of my mind I thought of Harzand’s 16l win from Swordfighter (3yo Cork), Galileo’s 14 lengths win (2yo Leopardstown), Australia’s 6l win from Free Eagle (2yo Leopardstown).

WickIow Brave

diomed wrote: »

What jumped out to me about Orderofthegarter was the winning distance of 11 lengths at Naas in a twenty runner maiden. It wouldn’t look as good if it was a three runner race. In the back of my mind I thought of Harzand’s 16l win from Swordfighter (3yo Cork), Galileo’s 14 lengths win (2yo Leopardstown), Australia’s 6l win from Free Eagle (2yo Leopardstown).

Horse in 2nd has won since and Pocketfullofdreams was 1.5l 2nd in a Listed race nto. There are stamina concerns over Churchill and Cliffs of Moher but I wouldn't have any such concerns for OOTG while he's a lot pacier than the Derrinstown trio (poor fellas will probably be running over the sticks for Joseph by Christmas). Wouldn't fear much if OOTG takes his chance at Epsom.

tryfix

Order Of The Garter DI 1.00

His Di is just about on the button stamina wise for a Galileo in a Derby, he'll get 12f but has plenty of pace which makes it debatable that he'll be at his best over the trip.

His dam Kitty Kiernan Di 2.13 by Pivotal had one other runner so far.

She produced a 3/4 sister to OOTG called Icy Lady DI, 1.20 ( by New Approach) who ran 3 times as a 2yo in 2014. She was 3rd twice over 5f before winning over 6f. She never ran again after her 2yo career.

Kitty Kiernan ran 4 times as a Juvenile from 6-7f beating Lilly Langtry on her winning debut. She ran 4 times as a 3yo over 6-7f winning once over 7f and didn't race on from there.

Kitty Kiernan's dam Alstemeria Di 1.29 by Danehill was classy enough to finish a distant 4th at 50/1 in an Irish Guineas but only won ever won 1 race which was a 6f race as a 3yo. She was the best in her family who are a bunch of moderate 5-7f types.

Conclusion = a similar enough pedigree to Churchill but OOTG is a more relaxed horse than Churchill.

tryfix

Cliffs Of Mother DI 0.71

His DI suggest that he'll need 12f to be at his best and should be able for the Leger trip but there's some speed in his first dam.

His dam Wave DI 1.29 is by Dansili out of the classy Kingmambo mare Queen Cleopatra and he appears to have no siblings yet. Wave ran 4 times from 5-7f winning once and was also disqualified when beating the high class Nephrite on her debut. She only had on poor run over 6f as a 3yo before she finished racing.

Wave's dam Queen Cleopatra DI 1.42 was a GP 3 winner over 1 mile before placing 3rd in an Irish Guineas and 3rd in the the French Oaks over 10 1/2f. She is a good broodmare who has produced listed 7f winner St Francis Of Assisi ( Danehill Dancer) and Look At Me ( Danehill Dancer) a listed 8.5f winner and placed 2nd in a GP 3 over 10f who's also the dam of a Galileo filly "Kind Of Magic" who won a listed 1 mile race as a 2yo.

Queen Cleopatra also has a Fastnet Rock colt who won over 10f on the all weather on his only start.

Queen Cleopatra is out of the brilliant Sadlers Wells filly Sequoyah and is a full sister to the outstanding 2,000 Guineas winner Henry The Navigator.


A very tasty pedigree, I'm surprised they haven't been aiming him at mile races but he's probably a pure middle distance type.

WickIow Brave

Orderofthegarter got a poor ride against Cliffs of Moher and I think OoTG has improved a lot but if CoM is legitimately that much superior to OoTG - and I think OoTG is pretty good - than CoM could be an absolute masheen.

tryfix

Cracksman DI 1.17

An enigma of a horse, even with the Frankel hype factor this horse should be nowhere near 2nd favourite based on form. He owes his position to team Gosden's belief in him and they did produce Golden Horn to lift the Derby for the same owner so he can't be ignored.

In fairness his trainer did say he wasn't ready to do himself justice in the Epsom Trial and he did buckle down and get there in the end in the style of a horse who will battle to the line, a trait that seems lacking in many of the Frankels. He's already got winning experience on the track but not at the distance. He did seem to getting better the further he went.

His dam is the Pivotal filly Rhadegunda DI 2.58 who Gosden trained to win a listed race over 1m 1f on heavy ground in France. Rhadegunda's dam St Radegund ( Green Desert) was a very moderate dam whose best produce was Rhadegunda herself.

Rhadegunda's only other produce of note was Fantastic Moon DI 1.35 ( Dalakhani) who won the 7f Gp3 Solario Stakes as a 2yo and never impressed after that, he also ran over 11 and 12 f but was so well beaten over them that he offers no clues as to Cracksman's staying power.

Conclusion = It requires having an awful lot of faith in John Gosden to be backing this fella at 8/1. Maybe if he's confirmed for the Dante and some other dodgy favourite has helped push his price out a bit it may be worth backing this oddball. It's also against him that his 2yo form which propelled him to being a Derby prospect hasn't worked out that well.

Slattsy

On Cliffs of Mohar at 25s.

A lot of the horses at the front of the betting won't go so plenty of value out there atm. Just pick the right one!

Don't think OOTG will go myself. Can see him going French Derby.

finbarrk

NRNB badly needed!

tryfix

Venice Beach a half brother to Arc and King George winner Danedream is entered in the Chester Vase. His pedigree needs no analysis he's bred for the job and firm ground and won nicely the last day. He's also spoken of as a legitimate Derby prospect on the O'brien fansite, If he runs in the vase and wins his price will shrink to near favouritism.

madmoose

I have Venice Beach backed for the St Leger at 33/1.

sting60

Clutching at a very shrivelled docket on Finn McCool who I backed at yearling stage at big odds(odds bigger now).He has looked useless based on his supreme breeding but maybe he could be a 3yr old and Thursday will tell if I can eventually throw the docket in the bin.Will obviously have to back him on Thursday.Imo the only thing that will beat Kachy in the conditions sprint is the draw.If he gets a favourable draw he is my Nap at Chester.

Harry Angstrom

sting60 wrote: »

Imo the only thing that will beat Kachy in the conditions sprint is the draw.If he gets a favourable draw he is my Nap at Chester.

Not among 48 hour decs.

Mgoraf

AOB 3 today look more like ledger types. Certainly the first and 2nd anyway. Cliffs of moher be interesting tonorrow. I'd say he's there number one hope for it atm given they're running him on his own in that race tomorrow.

madmoose

madmoose wrote: »

I have Venice Beach backed for the St Leger at 33/1.

Hopefully ends up here

sting60

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Not among 48 hour decs.

Watch him big,big time.

Slattsy

Hopefully Cliffs of Moher wins by approx. 87 lengths tomorrow.

WickIow Brave

Slattsy wrote: »

Hopefully Cliffs of Moher wins by approx. 87 lengths tomorrow.

Yeah I have no financial interest in him tomorrow or long term or anything but I hope he slashes up. We could do with a 130+ beast atm.

diomed

Derby field to come around Poundland Hill after branding move

The 2017 Investec Derby meeting will have a new sponsor attached with low-cost high-street retailer Poundland adding its name to the Hill area of the famous Epsom Downs.
The inside of the racecourse, from which racing fans can enjoy the action for free, will be branded Poundland Hill in a deal that is the result of title sponsor Investec partnering with Steinhoff International, owner of Poundland.

If this is a joke, it isn't.
Is it fake news?

tryfix

madmoose wrote: »

Hopefully ends up here

You're well on the way now, he's a proper stayer but unlikely to be good enough to win the Derby which usually means a trip to Doncaster.

I'd still be tempted to back him if he ran at Epsom, there's something very solid about him.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

Derby field to come around Poundland Hill after branding move

The 2017 Investec Derby meeting will have a new sponsor attached with low-cost high-street retailer Poundland adding its name to the Hill area of the famous Epsom Downs.
The inside of the racecourse, from which racing fans can enjoy the action for free, will be branded Poundland Hill in a deal that is the result of title sponsor Investec partnering with Steinhoff International, owner of Poundland.

If this is a joke, it isn't.
Is it fake news?

Hardly fake news when ATR are carrying it. Seems a bit crass, but isn't everything these days.

http://www.attheraces.com/news/2017/May/11/epsom-adamant-poundland-hill-'fantastic-news'-for-derby-festival

Harry Angstrom

Cliffs had to work hard for that.

sting60

Cliffs Of Moher won't win the Derby based on that run.Found it hard to beat an 85 (exaggerated rating) by 2 1/4 l that is nowhere good enough.

Harry Angstrom

sting60 wrote: »

Cliffs Of Moher won't win the Derby based on that run.Found it hard to beat an 85 (exaggerated rating) by 2 1/4 l that is nowhere good enough.

Looks another St Leger type.

Auroras_encore

sting60 wrote: »

Cliffs Of Moher won't win the Derby based on that run.Found it hard to beat an 85 (exaggerated rating) by 2 1/4 l that is nowhere good enough.

Badly sweated , hasn't run in 7 months, was pulling away at the end and took awhile to pull up , I wouldn't be knocking him on that run

Mgoraf

He was very strong in the finish over 10f I think 14f would be ideal for him. I backed him at 6/1 before the race and would still be hopeful after that he'll run well in the derby. The rest of them in the betting don't make much appeal to me unless they come out over the next week and perform well.

Harry Angstrom

Sir John Lavery might paint a brighter picture tomorrow at Lingfield....

sting60

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Sir John Lavery might paint a brighter picture tomorrow at Lingfield....

Very impressive at Gowran on terrible ground which should have been against him but the quality of the race was terrible.The dam's progeny have been very ordinary to date and from what I've seen so far from Ballydoyle I would be with Venice Beach and totally against Cliffs of Moher.Lingfield is the closest track wise to Epsom so let's hope Sir John paints a beautiful picture tomorrow and stop all these Frankelfile bull****ters.

tryfix

Cliffs Of Mother would need to improve a stone from that outing and Ryan got stuck into him. He reminds me of US Army Ranger, even looks a fair bit like him.

For me Venice Beach Is the most promising of the O'brien Derby horses so far. Also Cracksman's Epsom Trial win got a good boost with the performance of Bay Of Poets today, he's not a typical Frankel which is good so him and Venice Beach are the top two for me.

Onto Sir John Lavery and whatever the Dante throws up next week. Anyone know what O'brien is sending to it? I Can't think of any Derby horses of his that won't have run by then.

kfallon

tryfix wrote: »

Onto Sir John Lavery and whatever the Dante throws up next week. Anyone know what O'brien is sending to it? I Can't think of any Derby horses of his that won't have run by then.

Exemplar is in it!

Slattsy

That was the Derby winner today!
Friendless all day and still won, says it all. He'll come on a bundle too as we all know how his horse improve. O'Briens comments pre race had me worried, so to win was impressive and was strong at the end.

Ground was ****ing atrocious too.

Itziger

Slattsy wrote: »

That was the Derby winner today!
Friendless all day and still won, says it all. He'll come on a bundle too as we all know how his horse improve. O'Briens comments pre race had me worried, so to win was impressive and was strong at the end.

Ground was ****ing atrocious too.

Don't know if he knew he was friendless though.

Slattsy

Itziger wrote: »

Don't know if he knew he was friendless though.

8/13 the night before...

tryfix

Slattsy wrote: »

8/13 the night before...

(Morning price: 8/13 4/6 8/13 4/6)
(Ring price: 8/11 4/5 8/11 4/5) SP 4/5fav

.... he won at 4/5 = 8/10 which is hardly the price of a horse who's expected to run poorly.

If any comfort can be had about yesterday's result it's that 1m 2f is a bit short for him and he should come on for the extra 2f at Epsom, also his odds are very short for what he's achieved so there must still be plenty of confidence behind him.