English 2000 Guineas 2017

diomed

I'm trying to get a bet on at a price so I'll post my thoughts later.
The market is dominated by Churchill, Barney Boy, Al Wukair, Eminent, all nice looking animals.
I've watched many running of previous 2000 Guineas and the race always seems to be won by a fine looking big horse.

Total prize fund £500,000; 1st £283,550; 2nd 107,500; 3rd 53,800; 4th 26,800; 5th 13,450; 6th 6,750

Enter by noon, March 7th and pay £2,180 stake / Scratch by noon, April 25th, or pay £2,460 / Confirm by noon, May 1st, and pay £1,610 /
Supplementary Entry by noon, May 1st and pay £30,000 stake

Year Horse Odds this before
1990 Tirol 9/1 yes 5
1991 Mystiko 13/2 yes 4
1992 Rodrigo de Triano 1/1 yes 6
1993 Zafonic 5/6 yes 5
1994 Mister Baileys 16/1 no 5
1995 Pennekamp 9/2 yes 5
1996 Mark of Esteem 8/1 no 2
1997 Entrepreneur 11/2 no 3
1998 King of Kings 7/2 no 5
1999 Island Sands 10/1 no 2
2000 King's Best 13/2 yes 4
2001 Golan 11/1 no 1
2002 Rock of Gibraltar 9/1 no 7
2003 Refuse to Bend 9/2 yes 3
2004 Haafhd 11/2 yes 5
2005 Footstepsinthesand 13/2 no 2
2006 George Washington 6/4 no 5
2007 Cockney Rebel 25/1 no 3
2008 Henrythenavigator 11/1 no 4
2009 Sea the Stars 8/1 no 3
2010 Makfi 33/1 yes 2
2011 Frankel 1/2 yes 5
2012 Camelot 15/8 no 2
2013 Dawn Approach 11/8 no 6
2014 Night of Thunder 40/1 yes 3
2015 Gleneagles 4/1 no 6
2016 Galileo Gold 14/1 no 5

this - ran this year
before - runs before the race

The old saying is "the 2000 is won by the fittest horse, the Derby by the best horse".

There were a few surprises in the list of winners above and many high priced placed horses.
1992 2nd Lucky Lindy 50/1
1993 3rd Bin Ajwaad 66/1
1994 1st Mister Baileys 16/1; 2nd Grand Lodge 16/1
1996 2nd Even Top 40/1
2003 3rd Norse Dancer 100/1
2004 3rd Azamour 25/1
2005 2nd Rebel Rebel 100/1; 3rd Kandidate 100/1
2006 3rd Olympian Odyssey 33/1
2007 1st Cockney Rebel 25/1; 2nd Vital Equine 33/1
2008 3rd Stubbs Art 100/1
2010 1st Makfi 33/1; 2nd Dick Turpin 16/1
2011 2nd Dubawi Gold 33/1
2013 2nd Glory Awaits 150/1
2014 1st Night Of Thunder 40/1
2016 1st Galileo Gold 14/1; 3rd Ribchester 33/1

xlogo

Is Carrivaggio still it?

diomed

xlogo wrote: »

Is Carrivaggio still it?

I think we will know the final declarations in a few hours at 11 am (or 12 am?) on Monday 1st May (i.e. today), although I wouldn't be certain if they operate on a bank holiday but guess they would.

Francie Barrett

If it's fitness then Thunder Snow goes into this with a chance off the back of some impressive runs at Meydan this Winter.

HarshOstrich

Francie Barrett wrote: »

If it's fitness then Thunder Snow goes into this with a chance off the back of some impressive runs at Meydan this Winter.

He's going to the Kentucky derby

diomed

2000 Guineas field (12 declared)

Al Wukair
Barney Roy
Churchill
Dream Castle
Eminent
Lancaster Bomber
Larchmont Lad
Law And Order
Peace Envoy
Rivet
Spirit Of Valor
Top Score

My bet is €300 at 6s (5/1) Al Wukair.
His price was lower on the exchanges in the last few days but now 6 is available.
This suggests there is money for other horses, probably Eminent and Dream Castle.

With such a small field they will probably race as one group which will reduce the luck factor.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

2000 Guineas field (12 declared)

Al Wukair
Barney Roy
Churchill
Dream Castle
Eminent
Lancaster Bomber
Larchmont Lad
Law And Order
Peace Envoy
Rivet
Spirit Of Valor
Top Score

My bet is €300 at 6s (5/1) Al Wukair.
His price was lower on the exchanges in the last few days but now 6 is available.
This suggests there is money for other horses, probably Eminent and Dream Castle.

With such a small field they will probably race as one group which will reduce the luck factor.

I was waiting for your pick, after your picking of Galileo Gold last year you're the man to follow.

Al Wukair looked very good last time out but apart from the 2nd who didn't run up to form the ones behind were no great shakes.

It's a very decent and fairly small field ( likely to shrink a lot more to a ridiculous size) so I wouldn't be expecting some outsider to spring a surprise on account of traffic problems.

Churchill isn't bred to be a 3yo flop like so many of the top US bred 2yos who've come unstuck as 3yos so I fully expect him to win this.

The rest are tasty, I was very impressed with Barney Roy the last day but it may be a bit soon for him to get past Churchill.

The rest are much of a muchness with lots of potential there.

HarshOstrich

Dream castle travelled like the best horse the last day and it might be that he's more a sprinter.
But he was keen as well so if they can get him to settle I think he will run a big race

diomed

Al Wukair
Three runs, three wins. He ran in the Prix Djebel 7f on 10th April.
"In rear, last and nearly 10 lengths off leader approaching halfway, good headway on outer 1 1/2f out, driven to lead final 125yds out, soon in command"
The Wiki page for the Prix Djebel shows his time of 1:23.03 is the second fastest time (1:23.00 fastest) in that race. Times are shown from 1994 onwards on Wiki.
Watch the race on Youtube and you will see he let the field get away from him and then showed great pace to go around them.
The worry is will he keep with the 2000 Guineas field as it would be a mistake to concede ground unnecessarily.
If it was deliberate it provided a good test.
Can he handle the Newmarket dip? Some of the other contenders have already.
He ran and won over a mile as a 2yo so should get the mile.

Barney Roy
A serious contender although only two runs, two wins.
I watched his maiden win (9/1) at Haydock on Youtube. From 1f out he walked away from the field to win by 4l. He looks a very strong bodied horse.
He won the Greenham 7f on 22nd April in a good time 1:23.08 by 2l, 4l, the third fastest since 1971 on the Wiki page.

Churchill
He is the 6/4 favourite. He has won his last five races after being 3rd on his debut.
He was a big strong fine looking two year old.

I always look for a weakness and here it might be the 8f distance of the 2000 Guineas.
His sire Galileo was a 12f horse and his dam Meow a 5f filly (5 races at 5f).
Meow’s dam Airwave ran 5x5f, 14x6f, 1x7f, 2x8f, and her dam Kangra Valley ran 15x5f, 1x6f, and her dam Thorner Lane ran 4x5f, 2x6f. Churchill’s dam line is all minimum distance sprinters.
In the Dewhurst he won by 1 1/4l from Lancaster Bomber who was beaten twice since, and who came from 4th in the Dewhurst to finish 2nd, imo closing at the line.
In Churchill’s previous race, the Group 1 National Stakes 7f at The Curragh he beat Mehmas by 4 ¼ l.
If you look at the race you will see that Mehmas slightly headed Churchill at the 1f pole and lost 4l in the last furlong in that 7f race. The other races of Mehmas were 2x5f, 5x6f.
I believe Churchill was flattered beating a 5f/6f sprinter over the last furlong of a 7f race on yielding.
Looking at the race on Youtube you will see that Churchill looks about twice the size of Mehmas.
I think Churchill will struggle against the other three major contenders, Al Wukair, Barney Roy, Eminent, who are all big strong horses.
Another worry is all Churchill’s races were in slow times, more than three seconds above standard, with the exception of his last race, the Dewhurst, which was 1.30 slow. In his one race on fast ground, the Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown, he won by a neck (3.37 slow).

Dream Castle
Two runs, both in 2017, and beaten by Barney Roy in the Greenham 7f, the 3rd another 4l away. His price has fallen recently. He would have to reverse the form with Barney Boy.
A problem might be his running style: 1st race "Took keen hold early"; 2nd race "Raced freely, prominent"

Eminent
Two runs, two wins, and his sire is the mighty Frankel.
The owners of Frankel will have most to win or lose here, a classic win to boost Frankel as a sire.
Eminent won the Craven Stakes 8f on 20th April, outstaying the field “driven to lead inside final furlong, stayed on strongly and going away at finish”.
The time was good 1:35.15, the fastest of the Craven Stakes times on the Wiki page from 1980.
He looks a big, strong horse, much like his father, and the time was good. He is a contender.

Lancaster Bomber
He is one of four Aidan O’Brien entries. Won a maiden in a seven race career, but also has been second in a Group 1 race and a Grade 1 race. He has been beaten three times in races won by Churchill. It will be a surprise if he wins but not without a chance.

Larchmont Lad
Four runs, two wins, a 3rd and a 5th. The 3rd he was beaten a sh hd and a nse. The 5th place was in his last race, the Craven, where he was 4 1/4l behind Eminent.
If you want an excuse for that run it was that he on the far side of the race in a group of three, and away from the winning group. He lost a lot of ground late.

Law And Order
He has two wins from seven runs, one on all weather. The level of his form does not look up to winning this.

Peace Envoy
This is another Aidan O’Brien entry. Two wins from eight starts, all of them from 5f to 6f63y.
It will be a major surprise if he can win here. My guess is he will make the pace.

Rivet
This is trained by William Haggas. He does not often run a horse in a classic and when he does it usually contends.
Second to Eminent in the Craven Stakes 8f in a fast time, and 5th to Churchill in last year’s Dewhurst. In the Craven he tried to make all but was outpaced by Eminent in the last furlong.
He looks a smaller horse than some of the principals in the race. He might do better with something else making the pace in the 2000 Guineas.
He looks like an ideal Epsom Derby type to me, fit, medium size, manageable, a fighter (and he has a Derby entry).

Spirit Of Valor
Moderate form, and does not look competitive at this level.
Cost USD 850,000 and doesn’t look like recouping it.
His pedigree is USA on the sire and dam sides.

Top Score
Has run his last four races in Meydan, two wins on turf, two on dirt 3rd and 11th. Unusually for a 2000 Guineas runner he has run four times this year, 11 races in total. It will be a surprise if he wins.


Prediction
1 Al Wukair
2 Eminent
3 Barney Roy
4 Rivet
5 Churchill
6 Larchmont Lad
7 Dream Castle
8 Lancaster Bomber
9 Law And Order
10 Top Score
11 Spirit Of Valor
12 Peace Envoy

longshotvalue

Lancaster Bomber ew looks an easy pick here at 33/1 ew. Huge chance if placing . Fit from good run in meyden .

diomed

On the Betfair 2000 Guineas thread
"Rivet entered but more likely to go to France."

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

On the Betfair 2000 Guineas thread
"Rivet entered but more likely to go to France."

The trainer described him as having run very fresh in the Craven and didn't want firm ground for him.

I suspect the Craven form is a bit dodgy, the draw seemed to have made a huge difference with the first 4 coming home drawn 4576 on the winning side and the last 3 were drawn 123 on the losing side.

I thought Larchmont Lad did well to win his side that day and he's my idea of the best chance of a big price upset.

diomed

Declarations to run by 10 a.m. on May 4th.

diomed

Thanks to a 2011 Nick Mordin article here are a few 2yo champions that ran in the 2000 Guineas

1990 Machiavellian 2nd
1993 Zafonic 1st
1994 Grand Lodge 2nd
1995 Celtic Swing 2nd
1996 Alhaarth 4th
1997 Revoque 2nd
1998 Xaar 4th
1999 Mujahid 3rd
2001 Minardi 3rd
2006 George Washington 1st
2007 New Approach 2nd
2009 Mastercraftsman 5th
2010 St Nicholas Abbey 6th

kfallon

^^^^ btw today is the anniversary of your Derby win in 1780!!!

Black_Ninja

diomed wrote: »

Thanks to a 2011 Nick Mordin article here are a few 2yo champions that ran in the 2000 Guineas

1990 Machiavellian 2nd
1993 Zafonic 1st
1994 Grand Lodge 2nd
1995 Celtic Swing 2nd
1996 Alhaarth 4th
1997 Revoque 2nd
1998 Xaar 4th
1999 Mujahid 3rd
2001 Minardi 3rd
2006 George Washington 1st
2007 New Approach 2nd
2009 Mastercraftsman 5th
2010 St Nicholas Abbey 6th

2012 Dawn Approach 1st
2013 Kingston Hill 2nd
2014 Gleneagles 1st
2015 Air Force Blue 12th

kfallon

10 go to post for the race on Saturday

Al Wukair
Barney Roy
Churchill
Dream Castle
Eminent
Lancaster Bomber
Larchmont Lad
Law & Order
Spirit of Valor
Top Score

Slattsy

Churchill murders that lot.

(pun intended)

Copper_pipe

I backed Lancaster Bomber EW @ 33/1 last night.

Work rider says he's working really well.

Mgoraf

Agree with slattsy think Churchill could be very good. Will do a forecast with the French horse as well for fun.

longshotvalue

Copper_pipe wrote: »

I backed Lancaster Bomber EW @ 33/1 last night.

Work rider says he's working really well.

I also did the same. I think he is very short to place here .

HarshOstrich

Will take the chance on dream castle and hope he settles, if he does he should go close, could be all speed tho.

diomed

For the 2000 the forecast breeze is 9 knots against coming 40 degrees from north east. The track runs west to east going about 20 degrees south.
All that translates to a headwind coming in from the left.

For the 1000 Guineas on Sunday the breeze is also about 9 knots, but from the north, which makes it a slightly helping breeze from the left.

In both cases it will be best to be drawn away from the stand side imo.
Low numbers drawn on the far rail, high numbers drawn on the stand side.

In the 2000 Guineas Eminent (2) and Churchill (3) drawn far side, but its a small field.
In the 1000 Daban (1) and Fair Eva (3) drawn on the far side.

4068ac1elhodqr

One of the Oracles indicates this will probably go to Barney Roy@4.5, 3pl, 1/4.

For the 1000 it simply states the well-backed fav will win @2.88.
This should have been called 'Azalea' for ease rather than Rhododendron.

diomed

I've had a little bet on the Godolphin runner Top Score at a variety of prices incl 400s.

His form is awful, 11th in his last race on dirt, but his two previous runs were a 7f Listed race win and a 7f conditions win at Meydan, both on turf.
The websites are saying Top Score is probably a pacemaker, but Godolphin do not say that.
Saeed bin Suroor says ignore his last run as he missed the break.
His best form is on fast ground but it is some way behind the level needed.

His dam Windsor County is a full-sibling of the useful miler Raven's Pass (4th in the 2000 Guineas).
His sire Hard Spun was 2nd in the Kentucky Derby, 3rd in the Preakness, 4th in the Belmont, and has some good runners on turf incl Le Romain.

This is the longest of long shots.

Pinesky

It's possible to pick holes in all their form lines .
I'm having Spirit of Valor ew. He'll have his ground today . Badly drawn in the UAE Derby he was running a nice race till met serious interference . Seamie eased him . Seamie sticks with him today despite riding Lancaster in most of his races . He might be a pacemaker which would nullify my thoughts but he didn't have a pacemaker role in the UAE Derby . 100/1 available .

tryfix

That Barney Roy is a massive lump of a horse, he looks like a 4yo sprinter. I see the race as a match between him and Churchill. If Churchill is beaten but runs on he'd be a great Derby prospect despite his speedy dam line.

Harry Angstrom

ITV boys calling the Jockey Club Stakes a Group One.

BumperD

Anyone betting ew check your bookie terms, some paying 1/4, pp are not (1/5) for the place

Johner

Some animal.

Auroras_encore

Another Frankel hypejob put in its place

Harry Angstrom

Great ride by Ryan Moore, getting the cut-away for himself.

2ndcoming

Think Lancaster Bomber done just enough to block off Barney Roy.

Ben Gadot

2ndcoming wrote: »

Think Lancaster Bomber done just enough to block off Barney Roy.

Barney seemed animated throughout the race if there's any reason he didn't win it's himself. Still an encouraging performance.

Not for the first time today that rail at Newmarket seems to be the golden ticket.

Itziger

8 wins for AoB. That's some record all the same. They won't send him to Epsom will they?

PM me nudes

Will Hills some shower going 7/4 for the Derby

Copper_pipe

Mate from Betfair text me there saying one of the sheiks has 22k on Son of the stars in the last.

Ben Gadot

The sad thing is that a sheik putting 22k on something doesn't mean a whole lot.

PM me nudes

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Mate from Betfair text me there saying one of the sheiks has 22k on Son of the stars in the last.

A sheikh gambling, what a Shiite Muslim

Francie Barrett

Al Wukair jockey was all over the place in that race.

BumperD

Galileo. Hard for the rest to compete

Meath Centre Forward

That was an excellent performance from Churchill. A third win in the race for Galileo (and he's sired the dam of two more winners). It's a bit of cliche at this stage but his horses are always very straightforward. I think we might see Churchill over ten furlongs later in the season (Classic maybe?) but before that I'd say it'll be Irish 2000 Guienas, St James' Palace and Sussex Stakes. Barney Roy and Al Wukair ran excellent races in defeat too.

2ndcoming

Ben Gadot wrote: »

Barney seemed animated throughout the race if there's any reason he didn't win it's himself. Still an encouraging performance.

Not for the first time today that rail at Newmarket seems to be the golden ticket.

Yeah on second viewing he took far too long to settle. Serious performance considering.

macjohn

Itziger wrote: »

8 wins for AoB. That's some record all the same. They won't send him to Epsom will they?

Did Aidan O'Brien seem very distracted in the interview?
He was very anxious about something on the phone

PM me nudes

Just wants to chat to his Mammy

Copper_pipe

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Mate from Betfair text me there saying one of the sheiks has 22k on Son of the stars in the last.

A sheikh down 22k and I'm down 22 Euro

Itziger

Copper_pipe wrote: »

A sheikh down 22k and I'm down 22 Euro

Same thing. 4 pints in your world. 4 bottles of best Burgundy in his. (I'm guessing he drinks alcohol if he bets)

Gregk961

I think Barney Roy was the best horse on the day to be honest. Didnt settle, took a bad step about 2 out and Churchill got a dream run. Not to say he will prove to be a better horse-Id say today was 100% the target so it wouldnt suprise me if he dosnt manage a group 1 for the rest of the year.

WickIow Brave

Churchill will be a great price at Royal Ascot.

tryfix

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Churchill will be a great price at Royal Ascot.

He's the right type for the Derby, not a spectacular miler at all but still better than the pack. Like Sea The Stars or Camelot, while Australia and New Approach were almost good enough to win the English 2,000 Guineas and they all were similarly relentless types

Harry Angstrom

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Churchill will be a great price at Royal Ascot.

6/4 best price ante-post with Skybet. Evens with Paddy. Why do you think he'll be a bigger price on the day? He's more likely to be odds-on, especially if he wins the Irish Guineas.