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Hurricanes/Typhoons/Cyclones of 2017.

  • 27-03-2017 5:34pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 4,443 ✭✭✭ 17-pdr


    Thought it might be an to idea keep these in one thread for a calendar year. Currently threatening the NE Australian coast is Cyclone Debbie (13P). One minute wind speeds of 105 kts. Gusts to 130. Due to reach land in the next few hours.

    412943.png

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,083 ✭✭✭ stevek93


    Hope all everyone including the Irish will be OK.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,443 ✭✭✭ 17-pdr


    Not sure how accurate that JTWC advisory is now, as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are indicating a maximum 10 minute wind speed of 95 kts with gusts to 130. Pretty strong. Daylight now in eastern Australia. The eye has yet to come onshore.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20018.txt

    412975.png

    Local radar image. Distinct eye feature can be seen.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR242.loop.shtml#skip

    412977.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,202 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    10-minute mean speeds will always be lower than 1-minute. That's why pound for pound, a 100-knot typhoon is stronger than a 100-knot hurricane because the typhoon's 100 knots are measured over 10 minutes whereas the NHS use 1-minute mean speeds.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,717 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Hamilton Island

    YBHM 272248Z AUTO 12093G118KT 0150 // OVC008 32/32 Q0974= (SPECI)
    YBHM 272246Z AUTO 12092G118KT 0150 // OVC008 31/31 Q0972= (SPECI)
    YBHM 272233Z AUTO 12093G105KT 0250 // BKN008 OVC012 31/31 Q0973= (SPECI)
    YBHM 272230Z AUTO 12079G116KT 0300 // BKN008 OVC012 30/30 Q////= (SPECI)
    YBHM 272227Z AUTO 12081G116KT 0300 // BKN008 OVC012 31/31 Q0975= (SPECI)
    YBHM 272215Z AUTO 12097G120KT 0250 // SCT006 OVC012 29/29 Q0975= (SPECI)
    YBHM 272212Z AUTO 12086G120KT 0300 // SCT006 OVC012 26/26 Q0974= (SPECI)
    YBHM 272200Z AUTO 13086G104KT 0200 // SCT005 SCT008 OVC012 26/26


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,443 ✭✭✭ 17-pdr




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  • Registered Users Posts: 581 ✭✭✭ Captain Snow


    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/04/atlantic-storm-hint-early-hurricane-season-170420093408155.html

    25soc9g.jpg

    It may have formed in open water, well away from any human habitation, but Sub-Tropical Depression One has already made a name for itself.
    It shows on satellite imagery as a swirling mass of thunderstorms, located about 1,170km to the westsouthwest of The Azores. It has sustained winds of 55 kilometres per hour (km/h) and it is heading towards the north at 22km/h.
    Such low pressure systems are usually confined to the hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. This depression seems to have beaten the odds, becoming only the fourth such depression recorded in the Atlantic, according to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Track website.
    The formation of these tropical or sub-tropical lows usually requires sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of at least 26.5C. Currently, SSTs in the region are only 20C, and the disruptive effects of wind shear (the change of wind speed and direction with height) are quite high.
    This depression seems to have sustained itself because of the very cold air extending through the atmosphere, which has supplied the atmospheric instability for thunderstorm formation, required for One's classification.
    Only one of the previous April depressions - Tropical Storm Ana in 2003 - went on to become a named storm.
    It is possible for systems to develop into full-blown storms outside the hurricane season. This happened in 2016, with Hurricane Alex in January and Tropical Storm Bonnie in May.
    There are many state and private organisations that issue predictions of the coming hurricane season. The general consensus seems to be that activity will be slightly below average, with a total of 11 to 12 named storms, four to six hurricanes, and between zero and three major hurricanes.
    It is unlikely that Sub-Tropical Depression One is going to cause any revision of the forecasts. If SSTs had been well above average, then that might have been a different matter. But seasonal hurricane forecasting is still in its relative infancy, so forecasters will be closely monitoring the situation in the Atlantic in the weeks ahead.

    Source: Al Jazeera and news agencies


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,753 ✭✭✭✭ bnt


    TD upgraded to a Tropical Storm and named: Arlene.

    Parvi enim sunt foris arma, nisi est consilium domi.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Want to enter a 2017 tropical season forecast contest?

    I have been running these on American Weather Forum for several years.

    To enter, you would need to join that forum and then follow the link below

    Entries are welcome into early June without penalty.

    This is where to go if you're interested ...

    http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50014-2017-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-forecast-contest/

    Thanks.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    two_atl_5d0.png

    Two notables forecast to develop further.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,753 ✭✭✭✭ bnt


    Nothing happening in the Atlantic, but in the Pacific, Typhoon Noru has rapidly intensified to Cat. 3 and is slowly heading in the general direction of Kyūshū, Japan's southernmost island.

    Parvi enim sunt foris arma, nisi est consilium domi.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,573 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    bnt wrote: »
    Nothing happening in the Atlantic, but in the Pacific, Typhoon Noru has rapidly intensified to Cat. 3 and is slowly heading in the general direction of Kyūshū, Japan's southernmost island.

    How the storm has intensified looks pretty cool

    24 hours ago

    noru-satpm.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0




    Now

    noru-sunpm.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0




    And look at the clouds inside the eyewall - it almost looks like theres a face smiling out at you :)

    nasa-image.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,753 ✭✭✭✭ bnt


    Noru has weakened to Cat. 1, but is very slow-moving and is projected to strengthen to Cat. 2 as it approaches Kyūshū. Most of the rainfall associated with the storm is over the ocean, but there is still a flood risk for the Ryūkyū Islands and SW Japan.

    Parvi enim sunt foris arma, nisi est consilium domi.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Not a hurricane but Tropical Depression 8 will be interesting to follow it's track to see if it maintains some energy to have an impact on our weather in any way.

    Zaa3cDs.png?1

    IrvTCnK.png?1


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Well, Tropical Depression 8 became Tropical Storm Gert and is expected to become a Hurricane shortly and then complete extratropical transition within about 72 hrs then gradually weaken over the N Atlantic before it merges with a larger extratropical cyclone in 4 or 5 days .

    GMZXGdJ.png?1

    https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/897193673183682561


    9ooHqBn.jpg?1


    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/142047.shtml

    Thereafter it looks like a large area of LP that steers in a NE'ly direction between Iceland and Scotland.

    Will be interesting to see it's effect on our weather next weekend around Sat, Sun ,Mon. Will it hold that track , increase in intensity or decrease . Could there be a lot of rain from it ( likely IMO ). Its a huge area of LP but the winds don't look too significant at this stage but I would imagine that there would be a huge swell from it.


    3clYY1y.gif

    rutofeP.png


    ZshxkEg.gif?1


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Of the way things are going with the models currently, I think Gert will be near our shores by the end of its path but by the time it starts to make landfall, it begins to weaken like with ex-hurricane Cristobal on 31 August 2014. That ex-hurricane brought a ridge from the Azores and gave us one of, if not our driest September on record - and also one of the warmest.

    The fine spell is in FI so could all change but this is what I think will happen give the current setup the models are showing.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,796 ✭✭✭✭ hatrickpatrick


    Argh, I was really hoping for a dry night on August 26th/27th :D:D:D The idea of a PTC reaching our shores is usually kinda cool and appealing, but please not next weekend...


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Of the way things are going with the models currently, I think Gert will be near our shores by the end of its path but by the time it starts to make landfall, it begins to weaken like with ex-hurricane Cristobal on 31 August 2014. That ex-hurricane brought a ridge from the Azores and gave us one of, if not our driest September on record - and also one of the warmest.

    The fine spell is in FI so could all change but this is what I think will happen give the current setup the models are showing.

    Looks like the BBC is agreeing with me in that Gert could cause a resurgence of "Summer". Sunday could be a very wet day with it.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Things hotting up a bit with new systems developing.

    https://twitter.com/NASAHurricane/status/897796003629334528


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Daily Star I would expect nothing less from this rag

    A bit more of a restrained discussion on Gert then the Star !


    https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/897773362751164417


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The track has changed more towards Ireland the last few runs. Wind would not seem to be a problem at this stage but rainfall could be high all right, very hard to know at the moment how much. That cold front part of the system could become a trailing front drawn up over Ireland Sun into Mon perhaps.



    xtdmM2N.gif

    iPczpKP.gif?1


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Gert is now Cat 2 Hurricane , first Cat 2 Hurricane of the season, got a lot stronger then originally anticipated I think, will be interesting to see how it interacts with the system coming out of Canada.

    Qv1bVtM.png?1


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Just to see ex Gert or the remnants of Gert through , noticing that the models are differing quite a bit over Sun and Mon. Interesting to see the UKMO seem to show the system reorganize as it approaches our shores.The Jet might just put a bit of energy into it as it approaches ? Would think there could be a lot of rain and maybe windy if these charts materialize. This wont be nailed down for a couple of days yet.

    LLDEhRe.gif

    xOTIx8D.gif


    Jt4D1ov.png

    VpPe8fe.gif?1


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Tropical Storm Harvey, having reformed in the last couple of days, is forecast to become a hurricane and potentially not move far from the Texas coastline for a number of days.
    Rainfall maximum forecast of 10 to 15 inches up to localised maximum of 25 inches.
    NHC advisory 15A
    092930_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Harvey is now forecast to strengthen fast and become a Major Hurricane before making landfall on the Texas coast with the strongest winds on the North Eastern side.
    The current minumum central pressure is down to 982mb.
    Discussion 16
    With Harvey now strengthening at a faster rate than indicated in
    previous advisories, the intensity forecast has become quite
    concerning. Water vapor images indicate that the cyclone's outflow
    is expanding--indicative of low shear--and Harvey will be moving
    over a warm eddy of high oceanic heat content in the western Gulf of
    Mexico in about 24 hours. As a result of these conditions, several
    intensity models, including the ICON intensity consensus, are now
    explicit showing Harvey reaching major hurricane intensity. What's
    more astounding is that some of the SHIPS Rapid Intensification
    indices are incredibly high. As an example, the guidance is
    indicating a 70 percent chance of Harvey's winds increasing by 45 kt
    over the next 36 hours. Based on this guidance, the NHC official
    intensity forecast now calls for Harvey to reach major hurricane
    strength by 36 hours, before it reaches the middle Texas coast.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Looking very serious now, seems to be a very slow moving Hurricane dumping an enormous amount of water.

    https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/900781159348568069


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    That stalling in the forecast looks very ominous alright, like getting 50%+ extra on rain than might be expected with floodwaters eventually coming up against storm surges and there being no place for the water to go but back and out of normal channels. Up to 35 inches of rain in some spots up to Wednesday forecast, that's enormous. It's bad enough when people are stuck in place for a day, this could lead to a number of days of inaccessibility in some areas first with wind, then with water. Minimum Central Pressure now 976mb. Max sustained wins now 140km/h 85mph, Category 1. Houston looks set to get a worrying amount of rain. Corpus Christi could be close to the centre as it makes landfall. Let's hope that the fact it is August doesn't affect preperations, particularly informing tourists of what to do where they are, which social media should help with.
    Water vapour.
    wv0.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,205 ✭✭✭✭ Akrasia


    Looking very serious now, seems to be a very slow moving Hurricane dumping an enormous amount of water.

    https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/900781159348568069
    Wow
    There can't be anywhere in the world that wouldn't be devastated by a 6 to 12 foot storm surge along with 2 feet of rain and 80 -100mph+ winds lasting several days....

    I hope the people in its path heed the warnings and get to safety


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,546 ✭✭✭✭ Supercell


    My wife sent me this Chinese footage of the storms effects, pretty incredible stuff.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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