Thursday

Francie Barrett · 08-03-2017 10:44pm #1

Just dusted off the wifes William Hill account there to take their crazy 25/1 that they have on offer for Red Baron in the 3:55 at Southwell tomorrow. Recent form is pretty lousy, but hardly surprising given the calibre of opposition it faced. Tomorrow sees it dropping straight down from typical class 2 company into a class 4 race, and even going in as top weight, you'd have to imagine it should surely be very comfortable against a group of horses that have struggled to reach the heights that it has done previously, or horses like Dungannon, old warriors who have likely seen better days. Only concern is how well it'll take first time out to the unique Southwell surface.

Shanee. · 08-03-2017 10:58pm

They offered me 92cent at 25/1. How do these guys call themselves bookmakers??

Jayo11780 · 09-03-2017 8:46am

Back The Church gate today in the 3.35 thurles, my father bred and owns this horse and at 6/1 is serious value in a race without much depth.. he is fully expected to do the Biz today! Take this as a tip.. ðŸ‘ðŸ€‘and fill your satchels for next week!

Kauto · 09-03-2017 10:57am

Jayo11780 wrote: »

Back The Church gate today in the 3.35 thurles, my father bred and owns this horse and at 6/1 is serious value in a race without much depth.. he is fully expected to do the Biz today! Take this as a tip.. ðŸ‘ðŸ€‘and fill your satchels for next week!

That would be fine if he wasnt coming up against one of the best handicaped horse in the country in Pack Your Bags. Mary Tyner down as owning it but i would think a certain high profile owner in the yard is the real owner. If off this is a 6/4 shot.

Earendil · 09-03-2017 11:52am

Kauto wrote: »

That would be fine if he wasnt coming up against one of the best handicaped horse in the country in Pack Your Bags. Mary Tyner down as owning it but i would think a certain high profile owner in the yard is the real owner. If off this is a 6/4 shot.

Backed Coole Craft in that Thurles 3.35 @ 11s. Hopefully one of us has the winner.

superfurry1 · 09-03-2017 1:55pm

Small fancy for tyners horse in the first at thurles being nibbled at currently 9-1

irish_major · 09-03-2017 2:57pm

Have put a very big e/w bet on pack your bags.

Shanee. · 09-03-2017 3:40pm

Handbrake firmly applied

irish_major · 09-03-2017 3:43pm

Shanee. wrote: »

Handbrake firmly applied

He's just a bit **** i'd say.
Has a win in him but needs to be over further.

Francie Barrett · 09-03-2017 3:46pm

irish_major wrote: »

He's just a bit **** i'd say.
Has a win in him but needs to be over further.

That is what I thought, the 2m was just too short given the way it finished.

Jayo11780 · 09-03-2017 3:55pm

Church gate or tyner's yoke? Church gate is a chase who needs further alright, was chatting the lads at the track. He hit a flat spot 5f out, ground ended up slightly against him

razorhead · 09-03-2017 4:29pm

I got word for Shakeytry in the 5.15 Thurles

Kauto · 09-03-2017 8:15pm

irish_major wrote: »

He's just a bit **** i'd say.
Has a win in him but needs to be over further.

Not slow at all. I backed it all rates from 12/1 down to 6/1. They pulled the horse for so long that when they eventually do go for him they don't know how to race. This horse is at least 2 stone wrong over hurdles and fences. Will win next time. Another JP special coming up on Sat!!

Francie Barrett · 09-03-2017 9:07pm

Jayo11780 wrote: »

Church gate or tyner's yoke? Church gate is a chase who needs further alright, was chatting the lads at the track. He hit a flat spot 5f out, ground ended up slightly against him

I was talking about your fella.

posturingpat · 09-03-2017 9:42pm

I think there might be a JP special at Dundalk tomorrow.

Kauto · 09-03-2017 9:50pm

posturingpat wrote: »

I think there might be a JP special at Dundalk tomorrow.

Not his style. Likes to give them a spin in a handicap first. There will be a JP special on Sat in Gowran but not in his colours.

Nonoperational · 09-03-2017 10:04pm

Kauto wrote: »

Not his style. Likes to give them a spin in a handicap first. There will be a JP special on Sat in Gowran but not in his colours.

Care to PM?

qzy · 10-03-2017 10:06am

Kauto wrote: »

Not his style. Likes to give them a spin in a handicap first. There will be a JP special on Sat in Gowran but not in his colours.

Hitting for Gowran myself tomorrow so would love a leads up!

Copper_pipe · 10-03-2017 10:35am

It's JP's birthday today I think too!

byronbay2 · 10-03-2017 10:38am

Kauto wrote: »

Not slow at all. I backed it all rates from 12/1 down to 6/1. They pulled the horse for so long that when they eventually do go for him they don't know how to race. This horse is at least 2 stone wrong over hurdles and fences. Will win next time. Another JP special coming up on Sat!!

Pack Your Bags has run 10 times under rules and has never finished better than 4th. He has never been beaten less than 26L in any of those 10 runs.

http://www.attheraces.com/form/horse/pack-your-bags/IRE/2903317/search/?mode=H&page=1&search=|pack%20your%20bags|

Either it's the ultimate plot horse (only rated 88, so wouldn't get into any good handicap) or is just not very good - surely must be the latter at this stage!

Kauto · 10-03-2017 10:48am

byronbay2 wrote: »

Pack Your Bags has run 10 times under rules and has never finished better than 4th. He has never been beaten less than 26L in any of those 10 runs.

http://www.attheraces.com/form/horse/pack-your-bags/IRE/2903317/search/?mode=H&page=1&search=|pack%20your%20bags|

Either it's the ultimate plot horse (only rated 88, so wouldn't get into any good handicap) or is just not very good - surely must be the latter at this stage!

Have you looked at any of its runs? Its ceiling is probably 115-120 so not going to be running in anything decent anyways.

byronbay2 · 10-03-2017 11:50am

Kauto wrote: »

Have you looked at any of its runs? Its ceiling is probably 115-120 so not going to be running in anything decent anyways.

Never heard of it until yesterday! I don't bet on handicaps anyway (so the horse would not be on my radar) but I just thought it interesting that people would think it was not being run on it's merits for 10 (with possibly more to come!) consecutive races just so that it could be backed to win 1 low-grade handicap chase, with no guarantee of success at the end of the 2-year plan! I think it is possible but unlikely. Much more likely that the horse is just not very good. It was backed to 4/1 2nd Fav in a mickey-mouse race at Thurles yesterday and finished 8th of 15, beaten 26L and never in contention at any stage. I can see no reason to think it will win next time out.

Kauto · 10-03-2017 12:08pm

byronbay2 wrote: »

Never heard of it until yesterday! I don't bet on handicaps anyway (so the horse would not be on my radar) but I just thought it interesting that people would think it was not being run on it's merits for 10 (with possibly more to come!) consecutive races just so that it could be backed to win 1 low-grade handicap chase, with no guarantee of success at the end of the 2-year plan! I think it is possible but unlikely. Much more likely that the horse is just not very good. It was backed to 4/1 2nd Fav in a mickey-mouse race at Thurles yesterday and finished 8th of 15, beaten 26L and never in contention at any stage. I can see no reason to think it will win next time out.

Entitled to your opinion.

Earendil · 10-03-2017 12:38pm

byronbay2 wrote: »

Never heard of it until yesterday! I don't bet on handicaps anyway (so the horse would not be on my radar) but I just thought it interesting that people would think it was not being run on it's merits for 10 (with possibly more to come!) consecutive races just so that it could be backed to win 1 low-grade handicap chase, with no guarantee of success at the end of the 2-year plan! I think it is possible but unlikely. Much more likely that the horse is just not very good. It was backed to 4/1 2nd Fav in a mickey-mouse race at Thurles yesterday and finished 8th of 15, beaten 26L and never in contention at any stage. I can see no reason to think it will win next time out.

I was thinking the same yesterday. How it was "one of the best handicapped horses in the country" was a ludicrous statement.

Kauto · 10-03-2017 12:40pm

Earendil wrote: »

I was thinking the same yesterday. How it was "one of the best handicapped horses in the country" was a ludicrous statement.

Give it this time next year and see what its rated.

Earendil · 10-03-2017 12:57pm

Kauto wrote: »

Give it this time next year and see what its rated.

You said it in the context of the race yesterday. With the cop out of "if off". Horse could be the next Faugheen but surely what we are trying to do here is pick the winner of the race in question. It was also in direct reply to Jayo11780's genuine tip which finished 2nd.

Kauto · 10-03-2017 2:03pm

Earendil wrote: »

You said it in the context of the race yesterday. With the cop out of "if off". Horse could be the next Faugheen but surely what we are trying to do here is pick the winner of the race in question. It was also in direct reply to Jayo11780's genuine tip which finished 2nd.

It is a guessing game when it comes to the green and Gold. A bit of Money came for the horse but it wasnt off a yard!

Thursday

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