Saturday

Copper_pipe

Fancy a few today

Best Win Bets:

Taquin Du Seuil 6/4 W/O Cue Card 3:35 Ascot ★★★★

The Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase is the feature race on the card at Ascot today. It’s due to be run over a trip of 2 miles and 5f which is equivalent to the Ryanair trip at at Cheltenham. It’s fair to say most of these will end up in that race too. Cue Card is the one they all have to beat here. This horse came into his own last season. He was travelling very strongly in the Gold Cup until coming a cropper. He’s been as good as ever this season. He beat Coneygree in the Betfair Chase at Haydock earlier in the season and finished runner up to stablemate Thistlecrack in the King George on his last run. It looks as if Colin Tizzard is going the Gold Cup route with this horse but I think he'd be better suited going for the Ryanair. Cue Card really should win this race but you won’t be winning much backing it at 2/5 though. I fancied Traffic Fluide last week to come runner up to Altior but he faded out of it badly. The step up in trip is sure to suit him today but I couldn't have him given how bad he ran last week. Shantou Flyer is unexposed and if he improved on his form he’d have a chance but I can’t see it winning. Irish Cavailer beat Cue Card in the Charlie Hall chase earlier in the season but was a long way behind it on their next meeting when Cue Card was much fitter. I can’t see him getting close to Cue Card today. Royal Regatta loves this track and he should run his race again but yet again he won’t get close to Cue Card. The one I like in this race is Taquin Du Seuil. I think he has a fair chance of giving Cue Card a run for his money. This horse has improved a lot this season. He won a decent handicap at Cheltenham earlier in the season. He gave away a lot of weight that day and won easy. He also ran a cracker when 5th in the Lexus at Christmas behind Djackadam and Outlander. The drop back in trip will suit him today. It’s risky backing against Cue Card though. I’m going to advise you back TAQUIN DU SEUIL in the betting W/O Cue Card market.

Sceau Royal 5/1 2:45 Wincanton ★★★

The Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton has proven to be a decent Champion Hurdle trial in recent times. Yanworth who was 2nd in the Neptune at the Cheltenham Festival last season comes here on the back of a win in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. He did pick up a small injury in recent weeks though which tempers enthusiasm here. I couldn't be backing this horse at 4/6. He took a long while to warm up in the Christmas Hurdle and people in the know have recently said that this horse may step up in trip and run in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham. This trip could prove a bit on the sharp side for him and I’m not sure how fit is is given the interrupted preparation. He may need this run. Saying that he could well go and win this but there are much safer 4/6 chances than this one. I’m going to take him on with Sceau Royal who is the forgotten horse in the Champion Hurdle betting. This horse looked to have improved an awful lot on last season when winning races at Cheltenham in October and over this course and distance in November. He beat Ravin Black by 9l when giving him 8lb. Buveur D’air recent beat that horse by 1l off level weights. Buveur D’air is 7/2 for the Champion Hurdle while Sceau Royal is 33/1. Sceau Royal didn’t look himself when 4th in the Fighting Fifth hurdle when last seen at the end of November. He should be freshened up given the break and I think he will go close today. SCEAU ROYAL could well get first run on Yanworth and take this.

Blacklion 9/2 3:15 Haydock ★★★

The Grand National Trial at 3:15 is the feature race on the card. The National weights came out during the week. Given that the weights cannot change the winner of this would be well in for the National itself. I wouldn’t worry about recent form in this race and look more at horses that have proven stamina. Also weight doesn't play much of a factor in this as 3 of the last 10 winners carried top weight. There are four runners in this field that I like for the National itself and they are Blacklion, Vicente, Houblon Des Obeaux and Vieux Lion Rouge. Vicente won the Scottish Grand National last year so he’s got proven stamina but he has it to do with Houblon Des Obeaux on their run in the Welsh National. The Venetia Williams trained Houblon Des Obeaux always runs a solid race in this staying events. He often finds one or two too good though. Vieux Lion Rouge was a really good winner of the Becher Chase over the large obstacles at Aintree earlier in the season. This one was 7th in last years national and should be right there in it again this year. This horse has a course win to his name and I think he’ll run a very big race today. Vintage Clouds is another with course form who has a chance. My selection for the race though is the top weight BLACKLION. This horse was a top class novice chaser last season and he won the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He’s not a really nice weight for the National and I give him a live chance in that too. This horse has had 3 runs this season. Ran a cracker in the G2 Charlie Hall Chase and also ran a good race in the Hennessy when 5th. That run and his last run at Wetherby suggests that he’s crying out for a trip like this. His trainer who has trained several National winners believe this horse could be as good as the likes of Binderee as a stayer. He’s an unexposed stayer and he really is the class act in this race.

Each Way Bets:

Krugermac 7/1 3:00 Ascot ★★★ (1.5 E.W)

This horse is probably the least exposed horse in the race. He was 2nd in a really good bumper on his first start at the Punchestown festival a few seasons back. He hacked up over this course and distance on soft ground when having his first run for this yard back in 2015. He ran 2nd on his next run but picked up an injury that day and was off the track for well over a year. Made his return to the track recently, he showed ability to a point and then he just faded out of it. Looked like he badly needed that run. He should be much fitter today. Scrapes into the bottom of this open looking handicap today. He will be getting weight from all and he’s proven over this course, distance and ground. Given it’s his 2nd run back from a layoff there is the risk that he could bounce but if he doesn’t I can see him running a big race. Ordo Ab Chao has not run for 680 days, this horse was due to go novice chasing last season but he got he got pneumonia. His trainer said he’ll go novice chasing with it after this run. He’s one to watch with interest today for the future. Will be interesting to see if he retains any of his ability. KRUGERMAC Each Way is my selection for this race though.

Spellbound 14/1 4:10 Ascot ★★ (1 E.W)

The 4:10 at Ascot is 3 mile handicap hurdle. Top weights Bon Enfant and Fortunate George should have a decent chance in this. This represents a drop in grade for these two horses. It does mean though that they have to give away lumps of weight. I’m much rather take them on with an outsider. SPELLBOUND was a horse I really liked a few seasons back. He unfortunately got injured and spent a spell on the sidelines. He has has two runs back this season and usually horses that come back from a layoff often strike on their 3rd run back. This horse is well in on his old form and I think he could place at nice odds.

Whin Park 10/1 5:05 Wincanton ★ (0.5 E.W)

This horse was touted before the season to be the best horse it's trainer Ben Pauling has trained. He said the horse had potential to be better than stablemate Barters Hill. Whin Park showed up for a while on debut but faded out of it badly a few furlongs from home. That run was too bad to be true. I'm hoping he can show more today. It's a bad race and the odds on favourite is not the strongest favourite, its beatable. I suggest low stakes each way on this horse in hope that he's as good as his trainer thinks.

Johner

That was an unreal run from Beyond Conceit there considering market weakness and how keen he was.

Shemale

Zarkandar did that nicely, rolled the clock back. Aux Ptits Soins looked like he was never schooled, STD didn't help, didn't seem to know where to put him.

HarshOstrich

Agrapart chance ruined in that race by a horse with no chance, who has not front run at all lately but today decides to take on the fav up front.
Jumped poorly anyway but still put in a decent performance to stay on so well after the mistakes and giving 8 pounds to the winner and the 2nd

Shemale

Come on Rayvin!!

BorneTobyWilde

Swiss Cross 40-1 3.30

Drops back to 6f here, has good record over this trip. Swiss Cross has won it's last 3 runs over 6f on this track. Comes here on bottom weight with only 8s 2lbs. It's a long shot as many in this race have won well or placed 2nd last time out.

Value for a ew long shot at
40-1

krustydoyle

Cheekpieces did feck all for Yanworth there

krustydoyle

krustydoyle wrote: »

Cheekpieces did feck all for Yanworth there

Very unimpressive.

Cant see him running let alone running in Champion Hurdle. Aintree bound would be better imo

Gamebred

Cheltenham will suit him better, a credit to the horse how hes winning on flat tracks over that trip could see him being overpriced come the day due to falling in there at wincanton.

Johner

Yeah JP will stick something in to make sure it's a fast pace at Cheltenham(although it usually is anyway). He'll be staying on better than anything, wouldn't write him off after that.

BorneTobyWilde

Gas Line Boy 16-1 3.15

I like this, has consistency to get around over this trip
PP has 4 to place here and they have it at 16-1 which is same price or higher than
everyone else at 3 places.

I like it for a place h ere at 16-1

Gamebred

If hes close jumping the last (big if) nothing is out staying him up that hill surely.

Shemale

I think the pieces just put Yanworth off :eek:

Probably needs a noseband, the better ground will suit but his hurdling wouldn't be brilliant.

Shemale

Lol at the people who smashed into Connetable, bizarre looking gamble.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Jezki have a handy time of it

BorneTobyWilde

Jezki chose to fall in behind Tombstone rather than fight to go pass it. Overruled the jockey there. Telling from Jezki .

BorneTobyWilde

Gas Line Boy got it's
4th place ! Barely

Father Hernandez

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Swiss Cross 40-1 3.30

Drops back to 6f here, has good record over this trip. Swiss Cross has won it's last 3 runs over 6f on this track. Comes here on bottom weight with only 8s 2lbs. It's a long shot as many in this race have won well or placed 2nd last time out.

Value for a ew long shot at
40-1

NR now

BorneTobyWilde

Came out without it's head gear, so could not run Swiss Cross .

mdwexford

Some pig of a race.

krustydoyle

Easiest schooling session he'll ever do

Gamebred

Lovely debut from vvm's little brother small but big engine.

BorneTobyWilde

Dynamo 9-1 4.30

Looks a weak race. Dynamo ran one race this year on 13th Jan, it was its first race since Aug 16. It should improve for that run, came 6th in a stronger field than this.
It has some form last year, running very consistent from FEB to its last race in Aug.

Should run an honest race here

9-1

Father Hernandez

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Dynamo 9-1 4.30

Looks a weak race. Dynamo ran one race this year on 13th Jan, it was its first race since Aug 16. It should improve for that run, came 6th in a stronger field than this.
It has some form last year, running very consistent from FEB to its last race in Aug.

Should run an honest race here

9-1

Heard word too for Dynamo, was due to run a few weeks ago and was a NR.

Shemale

Some race for the non triers :rolleyes:

abarkie

The call for jonjo has just gone out over the tannoy at the course

Shemale

abarkie wrote: »

The call for jonjo has just gone out over the tannoy at the course

What does that mean?

Shemale

Nice seeing Sue Smiths Storm Patrol getting beaten there after coming in for late support.

Having seen the way Palm Grey seemed to be taking a walk before the off earlier and Byrnes' Rosie Alice getting given away before the off earlier too.

tipptom

Jon Moore gave Nico a lesson on riding a finish today, Moore must have thought it was Charmaine hill in front of him.
Some of these young British NH riders are seriously overrated and no amount of top class horse's and stables that they are riding for can mask it.

Custom Cut

tipptom wrote: »

Jon Moore gave Nico a lesson on riding a finish today, Moore must have thought it was Charmaine hill in front of him.
Some of these young British NH riders are seriously overrated and no amount of top class horse's and stables that they are riding for can mask it.

Other than hit his horse more times (and he got an 11 day whip ban) what do you think Moore did better? A bit laughable that anyone who watched Ascot today could think Nico couldn't ride a finish.

abarkie

Shemale wrote: »

What does that mean?

You would have to ask the stewards / racecourse announcer - I would summise that they would asking for an explanation in relation to improved showing compared to previous form

Francie Barrett

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Came out without it's head gear, so could not run Swiss Cross .

Absolute filth. Seems very convenient that the 8th horse in the betting in an 8 runner handicap could just "forget" to come out without headgear, thereby preventing punters from getting the three places in the betting.

Shemale

tipptom wrote: »

Jon Moore gave Nico a lesson on riding a finish today, Moore must have thought it was Charmaine hill in front of him.
Some of these young British NH riders are seriously overrated and no amount of top class horse's and stables that they are riding for can mask it.

Rubbish, there are plenty of overrated young jockeys in Britain but Nico certainly is not one of them, Moore looked to hit BBB every stride he took.

I backed Flintham today and I would not change one thing about the ride, the horse was doing his best to jump left all the way around and Nico did an admirable job only missing the win by a late nostril.

Shemale

abarkie wrote: »

You would have to ask the stewards / racecourse announcer - I would summise that they would asking for an explanation in relation to improved showing compared to previous form

Do you remember what horse it was?

Juwwi

A genuine question , don't mean to knock anyone but does anyone agree horse racing is the worst sport to bet on ?

I don't think bookies would be in business if it was only non horse racing bets they took .

This is from someone who will take the week off for cheltenham and saves a few quid every year for it but reading these horse racing threads hardly anyone seems to be winning .

Francie Barrett

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Absolute filth. Seems very convenient that the 8th horse in the betting in an 8 runner handicap could just "forget" to come out without headgear, thereby preventing punters from getting the three places in the betting.

From the BHA.

THE BETWAY BEST ODDS GUARANTEED PLUS HANDICAP STAKES (CLASS 2)
The Stewards held an enquiry following a report from the Starter to consider why SWISS CROSS, trained by Phil McEntee, arrived at the start without its declared cheek pieces and therefore had to be withdrawn. Having heard his evidence, they found him in breach of Schedule (B)4 5.5 fined him £140.

You actually have to laugh. Poor Jonny Moore gets an 11 day ban and a £800 fine for giving his all, and these jokers only get a £140 fine for supposedly "forgetting" to fit the necessary headgear?

abarkie

Shemale wrote: »

Do you remember what horse it was?

410 Ascot -Forthefunofit - Owner -Mr John P McManus

Trainer - Jonjo O'Neill

What made me notice was that I as looking at backing Coleman in the last and it was also trained by Jonjo but not for JP

Kauto

robbie1977 wrote: »

A genuine question , don't mean to knock anyone but does anyone agree horse racing is the worst sport to bet on ?

I don't think bookies would be in business if it was only non horse racing bets they took .

This is from someone who will take the week off for cheltenham and saves a few quid every year for it but reading these horse racing threads hardly anyone seems to be winning .

Robbie stop talking bollix. You would struggle to get 500 on a horse tomorrow afternoon. They don't want money on horses. They want the clowns playing casino games and cartoons etc.
So to answer your question, yes they would be in business and doing every bit aswell if not better

diomed

robbie1977 wrote: »

A genuine question , don't mean to knock anyone but does anyone agree horse racing is the worst sport to bet on ?

I don't think bookies would be in business if it was only non horse racing bets they took .

This is from someone who will take the week off for cheltenham and saves a few quid every year for it but reading these horse racing threads hardly anyone seems to be winning .

Trolling
A troll is someone who posts controversial, inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages with the primary intent of provoking other users into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion.

robbie1977
you are going a little off topic from Saturday racing.
People win, people lose, bookmakers make a market and take a percentage.
It is the same for all betting markets.
It is up to the individual to play or not.
The gambling forum might be a better area for a general betting discussion.

tipptom

Custom Cut wrote: »

Other than hit his horse more times (and he got an 11 day whip ban) what do you think Moore did better? A bit laughable that anyone who watched Ascot today could think Nico couldn't ride a finish.

You obviously don't know much about riding horses if you don't think that Moore absolutely out rode de boinville,it is absolutely laughable that one jockey can make another seem so weak in a finish and you cannot see that.

Custom Cut

tipptom wrote: »

You obviously don't know much about riding horses if you don't think that Moore absolutely out rode de boinville,it is absolutely laughable that one jockey can make another seem so weak in a finish and you cannot see that.

Go on, tell me what Moore did better than Nico other than hit his horse more? And what was your opinion of Nico's ride on Beyond Conceit one race earlier? Moore's gone and got himself banned for day one of the festival because of the ride. All well and good for him because he doesn't get to ride Altior, but Nico can't ride that way at these meetings because he has a big incentive to avoid getting banned.