Ageing Europe

AnGaelach

Reckon it might be time for us all to start popping out more kids.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ageing_of_Europe

Giuseppe Carone and Declan Costello of the International Monetary Fund projected in September 2006 that the ratio of retirees to workers in Europe will double to 0.54 by 2050 (from four workers per retiree to two workers per retiree).[1][2] William H. Frey, an analyst for the Brookings Institution think tank, predicts the median age in Europe will increase from 37.7 years old in 2003 to 52.3 years old by 2050 while the median age of Americans will rise to only 35.4 years old.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates 39% of Europeans between the ages of 55 to 65 work. If Frey's prediction for Europe's rising median age is correct, Europe's economic output could radically decrease over the next four decades.[3]

Austria's Social Affairs Minister said in 2006 that, by 2010, the 55- to 64-year-old age bracket in the European Union would be larger than the 15- to 24-year-old bracket. The Economic Policy Committee and the European Commission issued a report in 2006 estimating the working age population in the EU will decrease by 48 million, a 16% reduction, between 2010 and 2050, while the elderly population will increase by 58 million, a gain of 77%.

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates the European Union will experience a 14% decrease in its workforce and a 7% decrease in its consumer populations by 2030.[4]

In a perfect world, our increased output per person and to a greater extent, automation, would take care of that issue and many others.. But with such disparity existing, I reckon that transition will be a very painful century for hundreds of millions.

Beasty

Got to hold up my hands here. I'm guilty of getting older all the time. One of these days it will all stop though

Noddyholder

I going to do my upmost to help the cause...

B.A._Baracus

I find these reports to be bollocks.
I've read a few articles saying people are not having kids as much, population will go down blah blah. Then other reports say that by 2050 there will be 30+ billion people on the planet and there won't be enough food blah blah.

So what it is... :pac:

Malari

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

I find these reports to be bollocks.
I've read a few articles saying people are not having kids as much, population will go down blah blah. Then other reports say that by 2050 there will be 30+ billion people on the planet and there won't be enough food blah blah.

So what it is... :pac:

It's regional. People having loads of babies in India is not going to help the workforce in Europe.

I'm going to my bit...I'll go into Boots and puncture all the condom packs with a pin. :pac:

Harry Palmr

Those immigrants eh? We need them!

Japan's population structure is horrific, far worse than Europes.

https://econviews.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/japan-pp-1950-e1300523608252.jpg

https://econviews.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/japan-pp-2020-e1300523667464.jpg

AnGaelach

Beasty wrote: »

Got to hold up my hands here. I'm guilty of getting older all the time. One of these days it will all stop though

The hands off approach is definitely the best, if you know what I mean.

The_Valeyard

Maybe if they had having children and raising them more affordable people would have more.

HONKEY TONK

Europe's population is getting older due to both partners having to work to sustain a middle of the road lifestyle.

I would think more people would have kids if only one needed to work

AnGaelach

HONKEY TONK wrote: »

Europe's population is getting older due to both partners having to work to sustain a middle of the road lifestyle.

I would think more people would have kids if only one needed to work

That's what happens when people wanted more women in the work force. Eventually the economy catches up.

listermint

The_Valeyard wrote: »

Maybe if they had having children and raising them more affordable people would have more.

Costs a fortune today to have kids and work it's literally a choice either or for many people.

Government policy great isn't it

wakka12

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

I find these reports to be bollocks.
I've read a few articles saying people are not having kids as much, population will go down blah blah. Then other reports say that by 2050 there will be 30+ billion people on the planet and there won't be enough food blah blah.

So what it is... :pac:

Well its not just one or the other. It differs from place to place, I don't think its hard to see that the majority of people in Ireland europe have 1 ,2 or no kids while most people in India, Africa, Middle east have far more children

Dr Crayfish

HONKEY TONK wrote: »

Europe's population is getting older due to both partners having to work to sustain a middle of the road lifestyle.

I would think more people would have kids if only one needed to work

It's not middle of the road. Look at all the sh*t we have. Any type of food any time of the day. TVs, phones, internet. People flying abroad every couple of months. We work because we think we need way more stuff and need to do way more things these days. Most of us could actually survive quite well on a very modest wage. You'd just have to do without things that people take for granted these days.

B.A._Baracus

wakka12 wrote: »

Well its not just one or the other. It differs from place to place, I don't think its hard to see that the majority of people in Ireland europe have 1 ,2 or no kids while most people in India, Africa, Middle east have far more children

But the global food shortages argument is exactly just that. Global food shortages. So the thinking isn't regional.

But it's all BS anyway. Just someone's opinion of what COULD happen. Just throw a little facts and numbers behind it and suddenly it's a "valid argument"

AnGaelach

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

But the global food shortages argument is exactly just that. Global food shortages. So the thinking isn't regional.

Do we have a global food shortage in Ireland, Europe or the West? We certainly do not. It most certainly is regional.

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

But it's all BS anyway. Just someone's opinion of what COULD happen. Just throw a little facts and numbers behind it and suddenly it's a "valid argument"

Dr Crayfish

Does immigration not cancel this problem out anyway?

AnGaelach

Dr Crayfish wrote: »

Does immigration not cancel this problem out anyway?

Not really, no. People don't have the same human capital. Africa, Middle East (and to lesser extents, Central/South Asia and South America) don't have the same level of education as North America or Western Europe.

The employment rate of non-EU immigrants is lower than the employment rate of natives and EU migrants in most European countries (all, I think, but I don't have the figures on hand).

That means that non-EU migrants are a net drain on the economy, and we'd probably be in better shape without relying on them.

B.A._Baracus

AnGaelach wrote: »

Do we have a global food shortage in Ireland, Europe or the West? We certainly do not. It most certainly is regional.

What!?
You did read my initial post right....
I was referring to the theory that by 2050 there will be 30 plus billion with a food shortage.

You took what I said as "right now" didn't you? then couldn't hit that quote button quick enough to prove me wrong. While if you just read what I said you wouldn't have understood.

Beasty

Dr Crayfish wrote: »

Does immigration not cancel this problem out anyway?

I think it alleviates the issue in countries like Ireland and the UK (pre Brexit anyway). The immigrant population is typically at the younger end and there's every chance they will stick around, paying their taxes and helping fund pensions.

Indeed Ireland has plenty of scope to grow further by allowing building in some of the more sparsely populated areas - it's certainly not bursting at the seams, unlike some would like to argue is the case with the UK. That means that when the older amongst us do retire there will hopefully be more at the younger end, significantly supplement by immigration, to fund our pensions.

By the time they all retire though, who knows. I for one will be beyond caring (for anything) at that stage!

AnGaelach

Beasty wrote: »

I think it alleviates the issue in countries like Ireland and the UK (pre Brexit anyway). The immigrant population is typically at the younger end and there's every chance they will stick around, paying their taxes and helping fund pensions.

It depends entirely on what sort of immigrant you are getting though. EEA migrants are net contributors because they're as well trained as most natives and have similar employment levels. Non-EEA migrants (which is where most of the influx is going to come from since the entire Western world is going through demographic struggle) are net drains on the economy and have statistically lower levels of employment than natives or their EEA counterparts.

Not making a distinction between migrant groups is fraught with danger and policy mistakes.

Ireland could probably get by if we attract workers from the EEA/Western world (since the number of migrants we'd need in nominal terms wouldn't be that high), but that certainly is not the case for most of Europe.

zzzzzzzzzzzo

While Europe is getting older, there are the increasingly smaller numbers of children that will have to bear the burden of the slowly ageing societies. But there are stark geographical differences in their spatial distribution, the trend is visible in the transformations of the age structure of the population and is reflected in an increasing share of the population aged 65 years and over coupled with a declining share of working-age persons in the total population. ageing is a long-term trend which began several decades ago in Europe In Luxembourg and Belgium

Jurgen Klopp

A few simple measures to help try and turn it around

Free or heavily subsidized childcare

For every extra child a working couple has they get a reduced tax rate, say up to 4 children max maybe

Graces7

Dr Crayfish wrote: »

It's not middle of the road. Look at all the sh*t we have. Any type of food any time of the day. TVs, phones, internet. People flying abroad every couple of months. We work because we think we need way more stuff and need to do way more things these days. Most of us could actually survive quite well on a very modest wage. You'd just have to do without things that people take for granted these days.

amen to this. Compared with my childhood and growing up time. I have cut much of that out now.

Wise wise post! Thank you..

bnt

So, fewer working-age people, and fewer jobs for those people. I don't get this panic over declining populations. There's nothing that says populaiton has to be a particular number, but we can tell when it's "too high", and in Europe it's clearly too high. All these genuine complaints about the cost of living, the need for two working parents to pay the high cost of childcare, people feeling trapped - these us that the economy isn't working for them, and it's not surprising that thinking people are having fewer children in response. These are fundamental issues, changes to government policy can't do much about that ...

Wheeliebin30

Surely once this ageing population dies things will come back to normal again as there won't be so many old people because people aren't having many kids anymore?

Did I miss something?

Sam Kade

AnGaelach wrote: »

Reckon it might be time for us all to start popping out more kids.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ageing_of_Europe

The goat population is in decline.

Yourself isit

Dr Crayfish wrote: »

It's not middle of the road. Look at all the sh*t we have. Any type of food any time of the day. TVs, phones, internet. People flying abroad every couple of months. We work because we think we need way more stuff and need to do way more things these days. Most of us could actually survive quite well on a very modest wage. You'd just have to do without things that people take for granted these days.

Firstly people generally work 40 hours because it is expected. In salaried jobs you can't ask for a 32.5 hour week because that's enough to live on.

Secondly the cost of my TV, phone and Internet per month < 10% of my mortgage. An occasional flight abroad isn't going to break the bank. The costs for most people with children (I don't have children yet) is housing, childcare and if you are smart pensions.

That's what leaves people with no money in the middle income groups.

Annasopra

AnGaelach wrote: »

Reckon it might be time for us all to start popping out more kids.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ageing_of_Europe

Or maybe we need migration

suicide_circus

I see my pension deduction's coming out of my payslip each month. This money is going to be invested and paid to people who are in receipt of their pension right now or in a couple of years. In the 30/40 years until I hit pension age (if ever) it looks like there will be fewer Europeans to pay my pension. Am I mad to pay into a pension at all? The whole pension industry is based on an antiquated social structure which is fast evaporating.

Yourself isit

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

Or maybe we need migration

Migration doesn't actually solve the pension problems. And creates its own.

suicide_circus

Yourself isit wrote: »

Migration doesn't actually solve the pension problems. And creates its own.

Educated migrants who dont western union half their pay check home and don't work menial minimum wage or black market jobs while living 5 to a room would help. But that means targeted and vetted immigrants.

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

Graces7 wrote: »

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amen to this. Compared with my childhood and growing up time. I have cut much of that out now.

Wise wise post! Thank you..

So we need to get out of the race. Stop working so much and earning so much? All laudable and well for any who can step away from it. But what about paying for those on welfare, pensions, rent supplements, children allowance, medical cards etc if we all aspired to subsistence living tax takes would plummet.

AnGaelach

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

Or maybe we need migration

Already addressed that point.

wakka12

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

A few simple measures to help try and turn it around

Free or heavily subsidized childcare

For every extra child a working couple has they get a reduced tax rate, say up to 4 children max maybe

This was tried in Germany and made almost no difference to the birth rate. The reason people don't have babies is because they feel entitled to a lifestyle where normal life includes nice house,car , new clothes, eating out, buying nice food, going on holidays, having the newest phone..which leaves little money for children

When people say they cant afford a child generally it means they cant afford a child in addition to the lifestyle they want. Which is completely okay, but don't try to say the only reason you're not having a child is because you cant afford it then!

Arcade_Tryer

AnGaelach wrote: »

Not really, no. People don't have the same human capital. Africa, Middle East (and to lesser extents, Central/South Asia and South America) don't have the same level of education as North America or Western Europe.

The employment rate of non-EU immigrants is lower than the employment rate of natives and EU migrants in most European countries (all, I think, but I don't have the figures on hand).

That means that non-EU migrants are a net drain on the economy, and we'd probably be in better shape without relying on them.

Less educated immigrants coming to work low paid jobs will contribute plenty in indirect taxes and perform the low paid jobs the educated citizens of Ireland won't do, like always.

Ways to ensure the children of immigrants become educated and contribute even more effectively in the future would be to focus more on the English language in primary education, and breaking down religious barriers to education too.

AnGaelach

Arcade_Tryer wrote: »

Less educated immigrants coming to work low paid jobs will contribute plenty in indirect taxes and perform the low paid jobs the educated citizens of Ireland won't do, like always.

How many unskilled jobs do you think there are and will be? Immigration leads to wage depreciation for comparative workers. Educated natives are in competition with educated migrants, non-educated natives are in competition with non-educated migrants. So you're having a larger demand (meaning prices will be going up) coinciding with stagnant or decreasing wages since the labour supply is larger.

There's nothing beneficial to the economy about that, it's appealing to retailers and employers. The majority of people don't make any sort of gain from migration, particularly non-EEA migration.

Sand

Arcade_Tryer wrote: »

Less educated immigrants coming to work low paid jobs will contribute plenty in indirect taxes and perform the low paid jobs the educated citizens of Ireland won't do, like always.

Ways to ensure the children of immigrants become educated and contribute even more effectively in the future would be to focus more on the English language in primary education, and breaking down religious barriers to education too.

Low paid/low skilled jobs are being and are going to continue to be eroded by automation. Large numbers of unskilled, uneducated, non-assimilated migrants will just bring *more* social problems and social costs to a society that will already be dealing with the pension ponzi scheme. Already European countries are having to borrow and spend additional amounts to pay soldiers to patrol their capitals. Good for GDP I suppose, not necessarily good for society.

If it is determined that Europe's population *must* continue to grow at all costs to pay for baby boomers, then the problem should be addressed at its root by figuring out and resolving the causes of Europeans not having families. Short term slap dash solutions like enough migration to offset population decline will just create deeper problems in the future.

Atoms for Peace

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

Or maybe we need migration

What we need is robots.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jZlSfsE730

Yourself isit

wakka12 wrote: »

This was tried in Germany and made almost no difference to the birth rate. The reason people don't have babies is because they feel entitled to a lifestyle where normal life includes nice house,car , new clothes, eating out, buying nice food, going on holidays, having the newest phone..which leaves little money for children

When people say they cant afford a child generally it means they cant afford a child in addition to the lifestyle they want. Which is completely okay, but don't try to say the only reason you're not having a child is because you cant afford it then!

Honestly this is rubbish. The western post war boom had both massive increases in consumerism and a baby boom.

And most of the stuff you list is basically living above subsistence (at least modern subsistence) levels. If a normal family has to choose between having children and being a hermit ( no going out, no holidays, no "nice clothes", having a car) then that's poverty.

Arcade_Tryer

Arcade_Tryer wrote: »

Less educated immigrants coming to work low paid jobs will contribute plenty in indirect taxes and perform the low paid jobs the educated citizens of Ireland won't do, like always.

And how will these less-educated immigrants afford the €1000 per child per month crèche fees while working such low-paid jobs (never mind afford Dublin accommodation costs)? The advocates of immigration as a solution to this impending crisis can never answer that. Yes, the newly arrived immigrants could afford to have loads of children if we, the taxpayers, pay for their accommodation, health and other expenses while they stayed at home.

At that rate, maybe the state could just take care of the expenses of Irish people when they want children? Or, as I said in this thread two weeks ago, maybe the state could stop building up Dublin and spread economic growth in areas with cheaper property prices? Or adapt a Scandinavian-style crèche system that does not cost us the equivalent of a second mortgage every month?

From property costs to childcare costs, working couples are being absolutely screwed by the very rightwing Ireland successive governments in this state have created. The policies of this state, most especially in Dublin, are unequivocally militating against Irish people who would like to have children.

There has been an unmistakable shift to the right. In 1965, when my own father bought our first home in (a nice area of) Dublin, he bought it based on a single income. My mother could afford to stay at home and raise us, as was the case with most mothers then. Now, it takes two incomes to buy the exact same house in Dublin and with both parents having to work outside the home, there is nobody who could convince me that on the fundamental quality of life things that the standard of living of Irish parents today is better than that of their own parents. Meanwhile, the rich are much richer and the world's wealth is concentrated in fewer and fewer hands. It would make far more sense to sort this out with our own policy, rather than being dependent on (easily exploitable) immigration to bail us out (and keep the rich even richer still).

ToddyDoody

And the youngest countries in the world are...

Percentage of the population with an age under 15 for the countries of the world
Rank
(total) Country Total
(percent) Date
1 Niger 49.3 2016 est.
2 Uganda 48.3 2016 est.
3 Mali 47.3 2016 est.
4 Malawi 46.5 2016 est.
5 Zambia 46.1 2016 est.
6 Burundi 45.6 2016 est.
7 Burkina Faso 45.0 2016 est.
8 Mozambique 44.9 2016 est.
9 South Sudan 44.9 2016 est.
10 Tanzania 44.1 2016 est.

http://world.bymap.org/YoungPopulation.html

Austria!

Explain why we need more young people in Europe when youth unemployment is at crazy high levels.

wakka12

Yourself isit wrote: »

Honestly this is rubbish. The western post war boom had both massive increases in consumerism and a baby boom.

And most of the stuff you list is basically living above subsistence (at least modern subsistence) levels. If a normal family has to choose between having children and being a hermit ( no going out, no holidays, no "nice clothes", having a car) then that's poverty.

No holidays = poverty now? Says it all really, and just reinforces the point of my post you quoted.
As I said ,theres nothing wrong with that. I think you should live that lifestyle if you have the money, but it is a privileged lifestyle. If you are sustaining yourself, then you are not suffering poverty

Yourself isit

wakka12 wrote: »

No holidays = poverty now? Says it all really, and just reinforces the point of my post you quoted.
As I said ,theres nothing wrong with that. I think you should live that lifestyle if you have the money, but it is a privileged lifestyle. If you are sustaining yourself, then you are not suffering poverty

Yes no holidays is poverty. The English working classes had holidays in the 19C.

Just sustaining yourself is the very definition of poverty.

wakka12

Yourself isit wrote: »

Yes no holidays is poverty. The English working classes had holidays in the 19C.

Just sustaining yourself is the very definition of poverty.

poverty synonyms: scarcity, deficiency, dearth, shortage, paucity, insufficiency, inadequacy, absence, lack, want, deficit, meagreness


= NOT having enough. Having enough to sustain yourself is not poverty..

Yourself isit

wakka12 wrote: »

poverty synonyms: scarcity, deficiency, dearth, shortage, paucity, insufficiency, inadequacy, absence, lack, want, deficit, meagreness


= NOT having enough. Having enough to sustain yourself is not poverty..

That would mean that your non starving historical peasant was not poor. That he would only become poor only when in a dearth. When starving or not being able to pay the rent

This isn't what most people would see as poor (and applied to Ireland it would mean nobody is poor). Poverty is in fact being just able to sustain your life but no more.

wakka12

Yourself isit wrote: »

That would mean that your non starving historical peasant was not poor. That he would only become poor only when in a dearth. When starving or not being able to pay the rent

This isn't want most people would see as poor (and applied to Ireland it would mean nobody is poor). Poverty is in fact being just able to sustain your lifestye but no more.

Well I would in fact argue that nobody in Ireland is poor. There are people who are poorer than others in Ireland for sure, but many Irish people lead extremely over priveleged lifestyles. So just poor by comparison, which isn't bad in the grand scheme of things..

Yourself isit

wakka12 wrote: »

Well I would in fact argue that nobody in Ireland is poor. There are people who are poorer than others in Ireland for sure, but many Irish people lead extremely over priveleged lifestyles. So just poor by comparison, which isn't bad in the grand scheme of things..

Right we have different definitions of poor then. That's not going to be reconciled.

Aa far as im concerned if having a child males people poor ( by my definition) then that is the main reason why there's a drop in fertility.

The fix is cheaper housing and childcare.

red ears

HONKEY TONK wrote: »

Europe's population is getting older due to both partners having to work to sustain a middle of the road lifestyle.

I would think more people would have kids if only one needed to work

I think a 4 day working week and more options to work from home, subsidised childcare arrangements would help. Having children is very expensive the government needs to do more to help working people to have more children. And feminism needs to stop making women who would like to stay at home and raise children feel bad.

Annasopra

wakka12 wrote: »

Well I would in fact argue that nobody in Ireland is poor.

Hahahaha thats a joke

The statistical scientific data on this is clear.

In 2015, Approximately 400,000 people including 132,000 children lived in consistent poverty.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/disposable-incomes-rise-but-8-7-remain-in-consistent-poverty-1.2959247