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Welsh National

  • 26-12-2016 6:56pm
    #1
    Posts: 0


    Native River whilst possibly a worthy favourite to me is far too skinny a price in a race where the favourite and anything carrying above 11st does not do well.

    So.....Im looking at a value punt and am going to back Beg To Differ of Jonjo O Neills available at 33-1 with Skybet who go 6 places.

    2 runs this season have been poor but forgivable. In the BetVictor Chase in Cheltenham on his first start this season he was sent off 16-1. After hitting the first fence he was always behind and never travelling receiving reminders early on and eventually being pulled up.
    His next run was a run around Chepstow in what, knowing Jonjo and the way he can operate I am willing to think he was there to see the place and have a go a the Chepstow fences and to my eyes was never really put into the race (might not have been fit either) and was allowed come home in his own time.

    Last March in Cheltenham I also backed him in one of the handicaps and was just coming into the race when he came down.
    A good win in Ascot(11st 11) over 3m and a tidy second at Cheltenham (11st 6) over 3m 2f in handicap chases.

    He carries 10st 13 tomorrow and also has the assistance of Killian Moore claiming 3lb.

    Considering Jonjo would have several to enter here Im willing to take a punt on this horse at the price.


Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,553 ✭✭✭✭Copper_pipe


    Just had a quick look at tomorrows racing before I head out for a few pints:

    Brelade ew @12/1 is a nice price. Beat Joey Sasa lto who won today. Moulin a vent beat it by half a length in Galway.

    Gladiator King @ 25/1 will also get some of my each way money in the 2:30.

    Ruby doing 10st 1lb on The Crafty Butcher and there was been a bit of money for it this evening. Its between Rogue Trader and Colms dream I think though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    I was very keen on Shotgun Paddy until he missed the cut by 1 this morning. Sure he should have been in the three in the betting.

    A year ago I was dead keen on Harry Topper he's been off for a long time. Not massive on his chances but he's well handicapped and I think he wants a good test. Took him antepost.

    When the prospect of heavy ground was possible I was keen on Milansbar. He's a proper stayer and would be better off in this with heavy ground to slow down the more classy horses.

    I never expected Vicente to be declared. If I had known I probably would have taken the 20s antepost about him. I've been followign him since early last season and always thought he was a proper National style horse. He must have a big chance he provided he's revved up for it, I just get the impression this wasn't a main target since it usually comes up so heavy.

    At the current prices and with the current ground I'd probably side with Vicente


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Nulty wrote: »
    I was very keen on Shotgun Paddy until he missed the cut by 1 this morning. Sure he should have been in the three in the betting.

    A year ago I was dead keen on Harry Topper he's been off for a long time. Not massive on his chances but he's well handicapped and I think he wants a good test. Took him antepost.

    When the prospect of heavy ground was possible I was keen on Milansbar. He's a proper stayer and would be better off in this with heavy ground to slow down the more classy horses.

    I never expected Vicente to be declared. If I had known I probably would have taken the 20s antepost about him. I've been followign him since early last season and always thought he was a proper National style horse. He must have a big chance he provided he's revved up for it, I just get the impression this wasn't a main target since it usually comes up so heavy.

    At the current prices and with the current ground I'd probably side with Vicente

    Nearly sure Nicholls nominated Vicente as his Grand National horse on the Morning Line this morning. Maybe thats the target?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    TheTorment wrote: »
    Nearly sure Nicholls nominated Vicente as his Grand National horse on the Morning Line this morning. Maybe thats the target?

    I have him backed for the Aintree National already at 33s since October. He's been saying as well that this might not be the year so I've not had that much on.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    TheTorment wrote: »
    Native River whilst possibly a worthy favourite to me is far too skinny a price in a race where the favourite and anything carrying above 11st does not do well.

    So.....Im looking at a value punt and am going to back Beg To Differ of Jonjo O Neills available at 33-1 with Skybet who go 6 places.

    2 runs this season have been poor but forgivable. In the BetVictor Chase in Cheltenham on his first start this season he was sent off 16-1. After hitting the first fence he was always behind and never travelling receiving reminders early on and eventually being pulled up.
    His next run was a run around Chepstow in what, knowing Jonjo and the way he can operate I am willing to think he was there to see the place and have a go a the Chepstow fences and to my eyes was never really put into the race (might not have been fit either) and was allowed come home in his own time.

    Last March in Cheltenham I also backed him in one of the handicaps and was just coming into the race when he came down.
    A good win in Ascot(11st 11) over 3m and a tidy second at Cheltenham (11st 6) over 3m 2f in handicap chases.

    He carries 10st 13 tomorrow and also has the assistance of Killian Moore claiming 3lb.

    Considering Jonjo would have several to enter here Im willing to take a punt on this horse at the price.

    Well I was wrong about Native River anyway!!

    4th pace for Beg to Differ will do.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,016 ✭✭✭mirwillbeback


    Hi all, i backed the fifth, had it as ew and figured nojoy, but was told that ladbrokes sometimes will pay top 5 in big handicaps. Is there anyway to find out, nothing on their website.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    God he went off a horrendous price but they backed the balls of him in the Hennessy too. Someone rang me today 'Tizzard said cue card won win by ten lengths yday'


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