Is Ireland heading for an economic crash which will far eclipse 2008?

firemansam4

So first we had brexit which many economists predict could have very hard economic repercussions for Ireland. And now we have just got the news that Donald Trump is now president-elect. If Trump carries through on some of his promises of cutting corporation tax in the USA along with trying to entice American multinationals back to the states, how badly could this affect us over here?
Along with this we have our own domestic issues on the horizon with the possibility of huge public service unrest and higher wage demands, all of this happening while we have a very unstable government at the helm.
I am starting to wonder how bad things might get over here in the near future, and could we be looking at a crash that will far eclipse what we seen in 2008?

NIMAN

Your thread title sounds like one of those ClickBait pieces at the bottom of the Sindo website.

I don't think things will be as bad as 2008 ever again...I'd like to think that people would come to their senses before we get to that.

I think I heard a figure of 4% drop in Irish GDP after Brexit mentioned. Its a lot of money but its just something we will have to plan and work with if its true...I don't think its enough to ruin the country thought.

As for Trump, I won't panic overly just yet. A lot of the nonsense he said when campaigning ain't going to happen. It was all bluster on his part. I think whenever Obama came into power he was hoping to get a lot of US multi-nationals back home, that didn't affect any of us, did it? Sometimes they just say what they think people want to hear.

I ain't panicking tbh. After the result came through last night, we had people on Boards saying trillions was going to be wiped off stocks. They started to drop and then today they are back up again. Its not the end of the world as many are saying. But thats mostly social media talk. People talk a lot of crap on social media.

I am thinking Brexit will have some effect on us here in Ireland, Trump not so much.

The_Valeyard

I shall Now consult the magic 8 ball..........











































Try again later.

washman3

A matter of when, not if.
Largely due to the failure to reform the public service since the opportunity arose since 2008, couplled with the total failure to stand up the banking institutions.
We reap what we sow,simple as.

Skommando

more hysteria from the pc brigade

Burial.

Trump is gonna ignite an economic boom that will eclipse the Celtic Tiger.

NIMAN

I would worry more about PS wage demands than Trump.

Everyone is looking for more money here, from a Government/country that owes €200 billion, and who borrows more money to give away in Budgets.

There isn't more money to pay 300,000+ civil servants more, but people are so dumb they would still demand more money even if they are told it will bankrupt us again.

KingBrian2

Unemployment rate has actually improved in Ireland and America so economically the situation is quite good it is politics that is unsettled. Gvt being weak in the face of international events.

Skommando

NIMAN wrote: »

I would worry more about PS wage demands than Trump.

Everyone is looking for more money here, from a Government/country that owes €200 billion, and who borrows more money to give away in Budgets.

There isn't more money to pay 300,000+ civil servants more, but people are so dumb they would still demand more money even if they are told it will bankrupt us again.

Not as dumb as the people who swallowed the excuse that Ireland's economic problems are caused by ordinary public servants wages, and therefore too high ordinary private sector wages, rather than the multi billion euro banking, bondholder and developer swindle.

firemansam4

NIMAN wrote: »

Your thread title sounds like one of those ClickBait pieces at the bottom of the Sindo website.

I don't think things will be as bad as 2008 ever again...I'd like to think that people would come to their senses before we get to that.

I think I heard a figure of 4% drop in Irish GDP after Brexit mentioned. Its a lot of money but its just something we will have to plan and work with if its true...I don't think its enough to ruin the country thought.

As for Trump, I won't panic overly just yet. A lot of the nonsense he said when campaigning ain't going to happen. It was all bluster on his part. I think whenever Obama came into power he was hoping to get a lot of US multi-nationals back home, that didn't affect any of us, did it? Sometimes they just say what they think people want to hear.

I ain't panicking tbh. After the result came through last night, we had people on Boards saying trillions was going to be wiped off stocks. They started to drop and then today they are back up again. Its not the end of the world as many are saying. But thats mostly social media talk. People talk a lot of crap on social media.

I am thinking Brexit will have some effect on us here in Ireland, Trump not so much.

I promise I dont work for the sindo website......

I guess it could all be all bluster from Trump and he might not be able to carry out much of what he plans. But I guess there are still unknowns with him and he has already pulled off a major shock in getting the presidency in the first place.

My worry would be that even if he is able to pull off some of his plans and there is a loss of investment from US multinationals because of this, and coupled with the ramifications of brexit we could end up in a downwards spiral which could cause a massive crash again.

hardybuck

NIMAN wrote: »

I would worry more about PS wage demands than Trump.

Everyone is looking for more money here, from a Government/country that owes €200 billion, and who borrows more money to give away in Budgets.

There isn't more money to pay 300,000+ civil servants more, but people are so dumb they would still demand more money even if they are told it will bankrupt us again.

Just to clarify - public servants are nurses, Gardai, teachers, Civil Service etc. - 300k plus.

The Civil Service represents roughly 10-12% of the people who work in the Public Service.

Aongus Von Bismarck

I'm always slightly bearish in outlook when it comes to my own personal investments. I've made a considerable amount of money this year by being hedge negative against the outcome of the Brexit, US and federal elections in Germany. Nothing spectacular, but steady wins the race.

That said; I don't see a reason to think of Ireland as either a place to invest or retreat from. What Ireland needs is more people who are willing to take risks.

The_Valeyard

Aongus Von Bismarck wrote: »

That said; I don't see a reason to think of Ireland as either a place to invest or retreat from. What Ireland needs is more people who are willing to take risks.

Nah dude, always use a condom.

SterlingArcher

If you don't see anything. Carry on. You'll never own a racehorse so it's ok.

Brendan Bendar

Aongus Von Bismarck wrote: »

I'm always slightly bearish in outlook when it comes to my own personal investments. I've made a considerable amount of money this year by being hedge negative against the outcome of the Brexit, US and federal elections in Germany. Nothing spectacular, but steady wins the race.

That said; I don't see a reason to think of Ireland as either a place to invest or retreat from. What Ireland needs is more people who are willing to take risks.

And less Mick Barry types.

A Little Pony

No, Trump will create a boom in infrastructure, he knows how to create jobs. Trump will be long gone before something like 2008 happens again which it will, it is capitalism.

Cee-Jay-Cee

NIMAN wrote: »

I would worry more about PS wage demands than Trump.

Everyone is looking for more money here, from a Government/country that owes €200 billion, and who borrows more money to give away in Budgets.

There isn't more money to pay 300,000+ civil servants more, but people are so dumb they would still demand more money even if they are told it will bankrupt us again.

And the above is entirely down to the current government. They awarded the ministers with massive pay increases (it's irrelevant that they have now rowed back in it) TD's are getting a €5k increase and you have that sniffling prick Plastic Donoghue waffling about having no money to meet pay demands while at the same time defending pay rises for TD's. Lead by example had you might have some hope in convincing the public that there simply isn't the money available to meet PS pay demands.

suicide_circus

Skommando wrote: »

Not as dumb as the people who swallowed the excuse that Ireland's economic problems are caused by ordinary public servants wages, and therefore too high ordinary private sector wages, rather than the multi billion euro banking, bondholder and developer swindle.

the PS wages didn't cause the crash but looking for pay restoration while we teeter on the edge of any number of possible economic bombshells is ludicrous. we can already see that the garda pay increase will have to come from within the dept of justice budget so the money will be taken from garda equipment/overtime funds to pay their extra salary. there is no extra pool of money. we have no rainy day fund for if brexit goes tits up. the government need to work on our outrageous cost of living (which impacts on everyone not just the precious public service). keep the usc and bring a few more demographics into the tax net too and focus on rents, housing supply, childcare costs, insurance, motoring costs etc

_Brian

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote: »

And the above is entirely down to the current government. They awarded the ministers with massive pay increases (it's irrelevant that they have now rowed back in it) TD's are getting a €5k increase and you have that sniffling prick Plastic Donoghue waffling about having no money to meet pay demands while at the same time defending pay rises for TD's. Lead by example had you might have some hope in convincing the public that there simply isn't the money available to meet PS pay demands.

Dead right.
They were happy to increase borrowing to give themselves a rise before everyone else.
They need to front up and strike a public sector pay deal set over maybe 5 years. The PS unions are strong enough to get their way anyway and individual deals like the guards will be more expensive on the long run that an overall deal over longer terms.

€100 million sounds like a lot of money but in terms of running a country it's small change.

Spend the money but bring accountability into the PS too where it's not impossible for someone to be fired for incompetence. Then we'd be left paying only good workers and the services overall would improve.

tomwaterford

A Little Pony wrote: »

No, Trump will create a boom in infrastructure, he knows how to create jobs. Trump will be long gone before something like 2008 happens again which it will, it is capitalism.

When is the wall starting??

gramar

tomwaterford wrote: »

When is the wall starting??

Trump will soon explain that the wall and any reference to the wall was merely metaphorical.

weldoninhio

_Brian wrote: »

€100 million sounds like a lot of money but in terms of running a country it's small change.

Cease our overseas aid, that's €640m. And we can pay €500m off the national debt.