The Affect of President Trump on Business

What are peoples thoughts on how his presidency will effect the US economy?
I feel like taking out the red tape and tax reduction is going to reap big rewards over there that will start showing in about 6 months or so. After 12 months GDP will be rising, real estate market climbing, manufacturing jobs will start rising all of which I believe will end this cycle of economic downturn we've been in for the last 8 years or so. A happy US economy should mean a happier European economy too.
All the hullabaloo about the sky falling down because Trump has been elected will start subsiding in wall street within a couple weeks and media will be talking in a surprised tone about the positive effect Donald Trump is having on the markets. Looking at his tax policies and business policies they make a lot of sense to me, so I'm looking forward to an sizable upturn in the global economy in the coming years. Thats of course if he actually puts them into action - but the Republicans winning the senate seems to suggest he will have the ability.

jimmii

You would assume he will make it easier and cheaper for big business to operate there and a good US economy should be felt everywhere but if he is able to cut the corporate tax rate that could have a knock on here as less of the corporate money flows through the "offices" in Ireland and is just kept and taxed there instead. It'll be interesting to see what a businessman does instead of a politician as President.

L.Jenkins

The immediate effect of his win is obvious. How things will pan out in the future will be uncertain. I imagine it may become difficult to export or offer services to the US in the medium term.

Digital_Guy

Where do people buy their shares?! Any recommendations? (Serious question).

duploelabs

L.Jenkins wrote: »

The immediate effect of his win is obvious. How things will pan out in the future will be uncertain. I imagine it may become difficult to export or offer services to the US in the medium term.

A very weaker dollar will mean a like for like drop in the value of the tourist spend, you'll be able to see the dip in the hospitality trade

pedroeibar1

Deleted User wrote: »

What are peoples thoughts on how his presidency will effect the US economy?
I feel like taking out the red tape and tax reduction is going to reap big rewards over there that will start showing in about 6 months or so. After 12 months GDP will be rising, real estate market climbing, manufacturing jobs will start rising all of which I believe will end this cycle of economic downturn we've been in for the last 8 years or so. A happy US economy should mean a happier European economy too. ............etc

Little to disagree with in that. I come from a position of regarding all politicians as self-serving. Trump is more so than most and has continuously prostituted the truth to gain a victory. Having won, he will now ease off the rhetoric, forget the promises such as the prosecution of HRC and the ‘Jail her’ rants and start breaking other promises. A Republican President, a Republican controlled House and Senate, so he will have a relatively clear run for the next two years to do what he wants. (Last time that happened was the 2002-06 reign of GW Bush – and look at what he did!) Let’s hope Trump can do some good, but like GWB he is arrogantly ignorant, has no concept of detail, cannot concentrate for long and is fully dependent on his hangers-on, so who he appoints will be the key people.

Life will go on, but the business community will be slow to make any significant changes for at least six months. What most Irish people have always failed to grasp is that they cannot judge the USA by a visit to the east or west coasts – even in the hinterland of NY (in NJ and PA) there are vast areas of Hicksville where people regard an out-of-towner as a ‘foreigner’ and someone from abroad as an ‘alien’. The Irish media are the worst, one trip to NYC and they become ‘experts’ and trot out their trite ‘intellectual’ views with no understanding of how backward much of the US is. (In fairness to the usually idiotic Hooke, he got it right because he lived there.) The money power is on the coasts (and to a lesser extent in the Chicago catchment) and they largely are Democrat and sneer at Trump. The USD is king, so the sneering will stop as reality bites and people will live with it/Trump and move on.

Overseas investment by US corporations will be put on hold until they see how the cat will jump. Enterprise Ireland will have a very tough job for at least the next year. The corporate tax drop in the US will see a flight of capital back home and tax-driven overseas expansion will stop; our much-vaunted claim that FDI is here only for ‘our skilled young workforce’ will be measured and proven to be somewhat lacking.

The US economy can develop quickly only if it starts to grow its exports. The weaker dollar will help, but in general the vast majority of US SMEs have absolutely no idea of how to export. Even Canada and Mexico are alien to most SMEs, and outside of the big cities on the E & W Coasts the banks have no understanding of forex/ILCs. The same weak USD will hit foreign travel and our tourist industry will take a hit, a double whammy as the GBP traveller market has also been affected.

What will be really interesting is the reaction of the political parties in Ireland – should the fringe parties and independents start with the same type of rhetoric as Trump, with chants of free everything – from water to childcare – there is a groundswell of uninformed opinion here (like the Brexiteers) that would jump to support them and that could be very dangerous to our economy.

(Nice to see my CRH shares have jumped 7% this morning. – Wall, anyone?)

newacc2015

pedroeibar1 wrote: »

Overseas investment by US corporations will be put on hold until they see how the cat will jump. Enterprise Ireland will have a very tough job for at least the next year. The corporate tax drop in the US will see a flight of capital back home and tax-driven overseas expansion will stop; our much-vaunted claim that FDI is here only for ‘our skilled young workforce’ will be measured and proven to be somewhat lacking.

The US economy can develop quickly only if it starts to grow its exports. The weaker dollar will help, but in general the vast majority of US SMEs have absolutely no idea of how to export. Even Canada and Mexico are alien to most SMEs, and outside of the big cities on the E & W Coasts the banks have no understanding of forex/ILCs. The same weak USD will hit foreign travel and our tourist industry will take a hit, a double whammy as the GBP traveller market has also been affected.

What will be really interesting is the reaction of the political parties in Ireland – should the fringe parties and independents start with the same type of rhetoric as Trump, with chants of free everything – from water to childcare – there is a groundswell of uninformed opinion here (like the Brexiteers) that would jump to support them and that could be very dangerous to our economy.

(Nice to see my CRH shares have jumped 7% this morning. – Wall, anyone?)

Dont you mean IDA? Enterprise Ireland helps indigenous firms only, while the IDA helps MNCs. The last time the US allowed parked capital back to the US, it only result in share buybacks and dividend payouts. There was no real increase in productivity and output.

If anything you will see American firms becoming 'Irish'. Who want access to the US market at the cost of not being able to trade with the rest of the World, as Trump is starting trade wars?

Do you actually know what happens in Google and Facebook here in Dublin? I don't think you realise that Germans and Arabs selling Ads to SMEs all over Europe and going to be done by Americans in 24 months time. Trump can move firms back to America, but Americans dont have the skills that Europeans currently have such as European languages.

Protectionism damages trade for everyone. Moving low skilled, low wage jobs back to America for manufacturing will only result in inflation and loss of competitiveness. Free trade benefits everyone in the long run.

mrawkward

America is a very insular and inward looking society with little regard or understanding for the world outside it's own borders. They do like to play the role of kingmaker but their track record in the Midddle East, South America Asia etc has mostly seen their interventions backfire on them in the longer term. They have this notion that what is in Americas interest is in the best interests of all.
The big multi-nationals are just that, global stateless corporate entities that grew out of mostly US companies, they play by their own rules and generally are pretty successful in running rings around governments.

Like Brexit there will be winners and losers and at a micro level some businesses in Ireland are going to be very badly burned. This Trump/Brexit double whammy must have some pretty dire outlooks for the tourist related hospitality sectors. In both cases weak £/$ scenario, at current levels, is way beyond the margins available to SMEs to offer even a breakeven. Ministers/government talk haughtily (clueless schoolteachers et al!) about finding new markets for our products and services, extremely difficult and expensive at the best of times, virtually impossible without investment. Factor in a non fuctioning/lending Bnking sector..magic wand territory.
We will lean heavily on our ability to innovate, stoicly battle on and never give up to grind our way to some success again. I fear for the short term.

Altreab

pedroeibar1 wrote: »

(Nice to see my CRH shares have jumped 7% this morning. – Wall, anyone?)

More like the promise to build highways and infrastructure. CRH is one of the biggest suppliers of cement and aggregate in the USA ...from memory they employ around 35000 people in subsidiaries there.
Correction 22,000 people employed in North America Source http://www.crh.com/what-we-do/americas/materials

pedroeibar1

newacc2015 wrote: »

Dont you mean IDA? Enterprise Ireland helps indigenous firms only, while the IDA helps MNCs. The last time the US allowed parked capital back to the US, it only result in share buybacks and dividend payouts. There was no real increase in productivity and output.

The IDA fits under the EI umbrella. I never said there would be increased productivity although I’d suggest that dividend payments would lead to increased spendin (on mainly imported products, thus further worsening the trade gap.)

newacc2015 wrote: »

If anything you will see American firms becoming 'Irish'. Who want access to the US market at the cost of not being able to trade with the rest of the World, as Trump is starting trade wars?

Trump will not start trade wars. Wait and see, he now has what he wanted, it’s time for his new agenda.

newacc2015 wrote: »

Do you actually know what happens in Google and Facebook here in Dublin? I don't think you realise that Germans and Arabs selling Ads to SMEs all over Europe and going to be done by Americans in 24 months time. Trump can move firms back to America, but Americans dont have the skills that Europeans currently have such as European languages.

I am perfectly aware of the lack of not only language skills in the US, but also the general ignorance of ‘international’, be it basic geographic knowledge or culture. It is a huge shortcoming, hence the comment on exporting in my earlier post. (When living/working there I’ve actually been asked ‘How come you can speak Mexican?)

newacc2015 wrote: »

Protectionism damages trade for everyone. Moving low skilled, low wage jobs back to America for manufacturing will only result in inflation and loss of competitiveness. Free trade benefits everyone in the long run.

There are few low skilled jobs here and they will not move back to the US, and few if any high-skilled ones will. US corporates need a footprint overseas, be it in the EU or Singapore, wherever. What will happen is that it will be seen as ‘politically incorrect’ for them to open new businesses overseas, and they will not do so for the obvious reasons of adverse attention, be it media, shareholder or IRS.

mrawkward

Trump's election campaign position on international trade was a ragbag of populist claptrap. Best example: 35% duty on Chinese goods into USA (a huge proportion for US brands with outsource manufacturing in China) and errrmmm China owns a staggering 30+% of US debt.. yeah right!

Trash NAFTA? Economic suicide.

TTIP is dead in the water anyway by the look of it.

He is already starting to drop the posturing, the realities of the doable will take over. Outsiders once inside simply change.

4068ac1elhodqr

The markets seem to have settled somewhat, (with the exception of a 5.36% overnight negative blip on the Nikkei 225),
The worst performers are -2% in Madrid & HK, but on average no real changes today on global markets (so far).

MXN is back below 20.0 again, Gold spiked, but is back down again and still lower than September, FTSE is unfazed this am, business as normal.
Be interesting to see what happens on the S&P500, it might dive early, but close just a couple of % down at worst.

I think what happens over the next few months is going to be intriguing. Half of the people who dont like Trump are those who believe has has no idea whats he is doing. They talk about him being a bad businessman, not paying contractors and things like this. The other half dont like him for his perceived racism and anti women comments.
For me as a businessperson I dont really care about the social aspects of the whole thing, but I look at his business skills and believe they are solid. Im well aware how difficult real estate development is, its one of the most high risk and multifaceted businesses out there, and easy to lose everything. Having seen Trump build such solid developments and projects for almost 30 years Im convinced he is a smart businessman, and he has a number of extremely smart people around him. A couple failures in that length of time are more badges of honor then anything to be ashamed about, and I find people who go on about his bankruptcies are usually students with no business acumen.
In terms of what he says about trade, fundamentally I believe he is correct in what has happened - America has let its manufacturing go, and they have had stupid tax policies that have been disastrous for the balance of trade. Talking about reversing all of that may indeed be populist and very well impossible at this point, but at what point do you stop the bleeding and say hold on a second, we need to make things in America again and not just keep letting the flow of work go south and to the far east. As Pedro says people have no idea about middle america which is poor as hell, riddled with drugs, unemployment, overflowing prisons - and the mass emigration of jobs and factories overseas surely has a lot to do with this. This is in fact the very reason he has become elected.
I feel like the people who have been in government for the last few decades there are cronies, much like our own politicians who really know F all about business, negotiation and so on.
I saw a tender offer a year ago in Ireland to build temporary housing for 200 units or so for refugees. The tender said they wanted it all done in 2 weeks including plumbing and electrical. That tells you the level of moron in our government. If its the same in America, imagine those people negotiation trade deals for a country. If you put high level business people in those meetings, you'd have to think they are going to do better then someone who has done someone else a favor to get that position and hasn't earned it on skill.
Im not sure Trump can reverse whats happened to US trade, but I think he can improve it quite a lot. He has managed to win the hardest race in the world, spending less then half the money, against all odds in terms of almost the whole world media being against him. He clearly has people around him who are very smart and efficient, and my feeling is that people let their personal dislike of the man skewer their view on his actual business skills and the skills of the people he surrounds himself with.
I am optimistic.

pedroeibar1

Deleted User wrote: »

I think what .....
For me as a businessperson I dont really care about the social aspects of the whole thing, but I look at his business skills and believe they are solid. ........Having seen Trump build such solid developments and projects for almost 30 years Im convinced he is a smart businessman, and he has a number of extremely smart people around him.........
.... the level of moron in our government. If its the same in America, imagine those people negotiation trade deals for a country. ..........
my feeling is that people let their personal dislike of the man skewer their view on his actual business skills and the skills of the people he surrounds himself with.
I am optimistic.

Yes there are morons in the public service (in both the US and here) I’ve worked with some in both countries, but I’ve also worked with some very good, able and dedicated ones in both. Although Trump will appoint the Dept. Secretaries, he/they will have to work with the system, and there are ‘Sir Humphry’s’ everywhere. It also will be interesting to see how he gets on with Paul Ryan and the old guard GOP, who hopefully will exert some control on him. It would be strange to see a Republican Congress blocking a Republican President, but it is not beyond the bounds of possibility. So any of his failures will be blamed not because they were bad or badly executed ideas but because ‘the Establishment’ (which, of course, he already is blaming) is “against him.” Business will have a very bumpy ride.

I’m not as sanguine as you are because I’m not a believer in Trump’s business ability. His ethics are awful, his business acumen is worse, but I do recognise his ability to motivate others. For example, much of his business ‘prowess’ reputation is a result of self-promotion and pomposity. Tell lies often enough and people start to believe them. He has rarely made money out of property, usually he ‘makes’ it by escaping debt during the ensuing bankruptcies. That is why Forbes and others have continuously questioned his claimed net worth.

Trump is not good for business because he is a sociopathic bully, and like all that type surrounds himself with a coterie of hangers-on that he manages with a stick & carrot approach, firing one or two periodically (usually those closest to him) to keep the others on their toes. BUT those people are good, and they are driven to succeed, hence my earlier comments on his ‘advisors’. Carl Icahn does not need him financially, but he can make money out of him, e.g. the casino deals, hence he hangs around.

Trump has repeatedly been caught lying and when called on it or his views or demeanour he has never shown remorse or embarrassment – in other words he doesn’t give a damn about societal norms because he has a complete disregard for what others think. That is why I regard him as a sociopath, not a narcissist (despite the hairdo). He is driven by a dogged determination to satisfy his ego at any cost, and when push comes to shove and he has to deliver he could do anything. What I would fear is when he runs out of the easy options – stuff like terminating the JI’s, deporting those immigrants who are convicted felons (no harm in that), those unprotected by the 14th amendment, building a few roads, etc. Then we need to watch out, sociopaths are volatile and are capable of doing anything. FWIW how businesslike is the notion of replacing a JI student with a drop-out kid from Washington Heights and putting him/her on a cash till?)

That is why Wall St is so scared of him. So there will be no huge slump because it is not in anyone’s interest for markets to lose value. But it will be a very rocky ride. I could write at length about his uselessness as a businessman, his failed property deals (Plaza, Ambassador, casinos) but it’s off topic.

Your right in that the debate on his skills would be a long one. I am glass half full with regards to what he's done. I suppose I enjoy that he has gotten the better of the banks. I once sat on a flight beside a citi bank exec who had been dealing with Trump when he owed them a billion dollars or some such figure. He basically told them where to go, and I suppose when anyone gets the better of bankers I feel good about it!


There is a lot of good solid business acumen in his the couple of his books Ive read. Simple things like arriving to close a deal with your own paperwork ready and drawn up. His lawyer George was/is extremely savvy. And mostly I think he has surrounded himself by very smart people. Buildings don't get finished otherwise.


I would say his brand building of himself is brilliant business and probably his best achievement. He built it so well he has become leader of the free world so to speak, and that has taken a lot of smarts. His bottom line may not be as good as he says, but 'selling yourself' in business is smart imo, its smart in sport even if we look at the fight happening this weekend.


I am sure there are a bunch of stupid mistakes on various projects down through the years you could point out, maybe Im too positive on what he's achieved. But given that I've made plenty myself I find it hard to be critical of those who make mistakes and then become very successful, as I suppose I believe one often leads to the other so long as you dont give up and keep pushing.
Stock markets have copped on much quicker then I thought it seems.


I think we will really see what Trump can do and what him and his people are made of when he starts renegotiating these trade deals, and meeting the likes of the Chinese and Putin. That is going to be very interesting.

mrawkward

Just like the Brexiteers, Trump sold a gullible electorate, or at least enough of them, a pup by telling his target market what they wanted to hear. He is a Marketer, of himself, extrordinaire! The reality of the outurn will be markedly different in the case of the US, the Brits have not yet copped on, four month later.

4068ac1elhodqr

Tax rates: The Trump Plan will collapse the current seven tax brackets to three brackets. Low-income Americans (<$25k) will have an effective income tax rate of 0. Less than $75,000: 12%.

Wonder if a fair few people waving placards yesterday, will be whistling a different tune (on their way to work) this time next year?

petethedrummer

pedroeibar1 wrote: »

The US economy can develop quickly only if it starts to grow its exports. The weaker dollar will help, but in general the vast majority of US SMEs have absolutely no idea of how to export.

Why would the US want to export more? To earn what? YEN? They already have the Chinese making most of the crap they need. The Chinese make them stuff to earn dollars (and other reasons). Why would the US reverse this wonderful trade off?

Public infrastructure projects would be a better idea. Have the Chinese make all the consumer goods and put their own under-employed public to work building a a decent rail system, fixing bridges, refurbishing airports and doing whatever else needs to be done. They already do Keynesian spending and surplus redistribution with Military spending, they should do it with public infrastructure instead.

petethedrummer

petethedrummer wrote: »

pedroeibar1 wrote: »

The US economy can develop quickly only if it starts to grow its exports. The weaker dollar will help, but in general the vast majority of US SMEs have absolutely no idea of how to export.

Why would the US want to export more? To earn what? YEN? They already have the Chinese making most of the crap they need. The Chinese make them stuff to earn dollars (and other reasons). Why would the US reverse this wonderful trade off?

Public infrastructure projects would be a better idea. Have the Chinese make all the consumer goods and put their own under-employed public to work building a a decent rail system, fixing bridges, refurbishing airports and doing whatever else needs to be done. They already do Keynesian spending and surplus redistribution with Military spending, they should do it with public infrastructure instead.

Surely they would negotiate to be paid in dollars with the massive dollar surplus sitting in the Chinese banks and their other trading partners? I agree in part about the infrastructure rebuilding - but without additional income its going to lead to just more debt is it not? And from what my old man tells me (ex army) their military hardware is in poor shape - tanks and so on and needs more spending. And probably more spending is needed on the support services - medical care for vets. I'd say it will take a long time to wind down that machine thats strategically positioned all over the world and take that money and put it to better use like you suggest.
Also if large corporates exporting handle employing much of these unemployed, it takes away the administration burden, welfare burden and adds income taxes to the economy. Seems like its the biggest priority to me.

mrawkward

I once looked at opening a manufacturing operation in the Staes, the costs and adminstrative burdens are horrific.

Many of the largest volume tech product companies no longer actually produce their own products, they use huge contract manufacturing companies such a Foxxcon, SCI, Sanmina, Jabil, Flextronics etc The companies themselves focus on product development, design and marketing. The reality is they have neither the infrastructure or the jobs to repatriate and the US operational cost base would kill them. Ireland no longer competes in that manufacturing space, the big players have departed to Asia, India, this type of production is still moving east even from the eastern European states. We have done a fantastic job in moving to the new non-manual labour space that has created huge numbers of jobs, but not for the longterm unemployed.

The US has a similar structural problem with their unemployed to ours here. The job opportunities are in the knowledge based business areas and the unemployed have neither the education or skills to secure such positions. ECDL certs dont cut it. It is a very vicious circle with little obvious opportunities to break out. Bring 'em home is a nice sound bight, the reality is somewhat different.

mrawkward

I once looked at opening a manufacturing operation in the Staes, the costs and adminstrative burdens are horrific.

Many of the largest volume tech product companies no longer actually produce their own products, they use huge contract manufacturing companies such a Foxxcon, SCI, Sanmina, Jabil, Flextronics etc The companies themselves focus on product development, design and marketing. The reality is they have neither the infrastructure or the jobs to repatriate and the US operational cost base would kill them. Ireland no longer competes in that manufacturing space, the big players have departed to Asia, India, this type of production is still moving east even from the eastern European states. We have done a fantastic job in moving to the new non-manual labour space that has created huge numbers of jobs, but not for the longterm unemployed.

The US has a similar structural problem with their unemployed to ours here. The job opportunities are in the knowledge based business areas and the unemployed have neither the education or skills to secure such positions. ECDL certs dont cut it. It is a very vicious circle with little obvious opportunities to break out. Bring 'em home is a nice sound bight, the reality is somewhat different.

mrawkward

mrawkward wrote: »

I once looked at opening a manufacturing operation in the Staes, the costs and adminstrative burdens are horrific.

Many of the largest volume tech product companies no longer actually produce their own products, they use huge contract manufacturing companies such a Foxxcon, SCI, Sanmina, Jabil, Flextronics etc The companies themselves focus on product development, design and marketing. The reality is they have neither the infrastructure or the jobs to repatriate and the US operational cost base would kill them. Ireland no longer competes in that manufacturing space, the big players have departed to Asia, India, this type of production is still moving east even from the eastern European states. We have done a fantastic job in moving to the new non-manual labour space that has created huge numbers of jobs, but not for the longterm unemployed.

The US has a similar structural problem with their unemployed to ours here. The job opportunities are in the knowledge based business areas and the unemployed have neither the education or skills to secure such positions. ECDL certs dont cut it. It is a very vicious circle with little obvious opportunities to break out. Bring 'em home is a nice sound bight, the reality is somewhat different.

I noticed some interesting things when I was exporting those singing toothbrushes - the manufacturer, an American companies was making them in China. I was distributing to Scandinavia. The Scandinavian retailers had a bunch of manufacturing standards and practices before they would list the products in their stores. So we had to do a factory audit and check all the staff lists, factory conditions, wages, hours and all of that. A special company was hired to do it and various reports made. Of course it was found that the factory didn't meet a bunch of these (not because of any fault of the US company or anything, they simply secured a good manufacturing contract for their product), but just because US requirements for standards and practices were zero compared to Europe and this factory made nothing for Europe. So they ran their operation like a chinese factory without any checks and balances would do.
Net result was that costs of production went up a big chunk in order to accommodate these new S&P's. I believe this has been happening a lot over there. If the US added a couple of those S&P's it would change a lot more (and it should for ethical reasons). Combined with a rising middle class, inflation and higher wages anyway its pushing up the cost of manufacturing. Of course the Chinese respond with a currency devaluation so the contracts dont change so much, but really this is cheating.
So lets say however he manages it Trump stops them devaluing currency, and he slaps some taxes on Chinese goods. Also shipping becomes cheaper. All of that together could mean manufacturing in the US becomes a lot closer to the price of doing it in China - plus the tax incentives and red tapes for setting up and running operations in the US becomes much more favourable.

Does it put the companies out of business because it eventually leads to price rise of 25% in the final retail cost of the good, and people stop buying? Or does it mean instead of Apple making X billion in profits per year, they may X billion - Y billion, but are still left with a healthy Z billion (whether the stock market says its healthy or not) because they have to eat the extra cost inside their massive profits?
Surely something like this is the end game to fix the system there as it would benefit the masses. A bunch of shareholders would lose their shirt, but if America is to be made great again....

mrawkward

The Chinese own over 30% of total US debt... tail and dog?!
Apple ( and their cohort) are not a manufacturing companies anymore, it is the Tier 1 Subcontract Manufacturers they need to induce to locate in the US... only a few are US corporations old data but it gives a fair picture http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1259226

mrawkward

The Chinese own over 30% of total US debt... tail and dog?!
Apple ( and their cohort) are not a manufacturing companies anymore, it is the Tier 1 Subcontract Manufacturers they need to induce to locate in the US... only a few are US corporations old data but it gives a fair picture http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1259226

President Trump has his work cut out!

Digital_Guy

Deleted User wrote: »

President Trump has his work cut out!

He's probably still just reeling himself from the fact he got elected!!

pedroeibar1

petethedrummer wrote: »

Why would the US want to export more? To earn what? YEN? They already have the Chinese making most of the crap they need. The Chinese make them stuff to earn dollars (and other reasons). Why would the US reverse this wonderful trade off?

Public infrastructure projects would be a better idea. Have the Chinese make all the consumer goods and put their own under-employed public to work building a a decent rail system, fixing bridges, refurbishing airports and doing whatever else needs to be done. They already do Keynesian spending and surplus redistribution with Military spending, they should do it with public infrastructure instead.

It's called a trade deficit. Here

Should he start a trade war he will lose because the simple US folk who believed his rubbish and voted him in will not be too happy not getting the new model Nike/Addidas/whatever as a result, or even if they do it will be at a vastly increase price, (be they imported or manufactured in the US)

Other posters and I have already mentioned infrastructure projects - but they need lots of cash, which is not available yet and will not become available until Trump gets his corporate tax deal through Congress and (perhaps) the once-off levy on funds held outside the US. That is not a foregone conclusion, nor is it going to be a hold your breath event.

Will he see a second term?

pedroeibar1

pedroeibar1 wrote: »

petethedrummer wrote: »

Why would the US want to export more? To earn what? YEN? They already have the Chinese making most of the crap they need. The Chinese make them stuff to earn dollars (and other reasons). Why would the US reverse this wonderful trade off?

Public infrastructure projects would be a better idea. Have the Chinese make all the consumer goods and put their own under-employed public to work building a a decent rail system, fixing bridges, refurbishing airports and doing whatever else needs to be done. They already do Keynesian spending and surplus redistribution with Military spending, they should do it with public infrastructure instead.

It's called a trade deficit. Here

Should he start a trade war he will lose because the simple US folk who believed his rubbish and voted him in will not be too happy not getting the new model Nike/Addidas/whatever as a result, or even if they do it will be at a vastly increase price, (be they imported or manufactured in the US)

Other posters and I have already mentioned infrastructure projects - but they need lots of cash, which is not available yet and will not become available until Trump gets his corporate tax deal through Congress and (perhaps) the once-off levy on funds held outside the US. That is not a foregone conclusion, nor is it going to be a hold your breath event.

Will he see a second term?

If Trump manages to make his policies work to the benefit of the US, heres what the future holds:
Another 4 years followed by:

Donald Trump Jr - Ivanka Trump - Eric Trump, and lastly Baron Trump!

40 Years of a Trump dynasty

I think ill have to go back to the legacy site, this new one is a disaster. Can't edit posts properly, double posts, can't reply to PM's, really slow loading times, can't preview posts anymore...

JohnMc1

jimmii wrote: »

You would assume he will make it easier and cheaper for big business to operate there and a good US economy should be felt everywhere but if he is able to cut the corporate tax rate that could have a knock on here as less of the corporate money flows through the "offices" in Ireland and is just kept and taxed there instead. It'll be interesting to see what a businessman does instead of a politician as President.

This is why I'm giving him a chance. The Lawyers and Career Politician that never worked an Honest to God job have ruined our Countries. So let's see what a Business Man can do.

JohnMc1

mrawkward wrote: »

Just like the Brexiteers, Trump sold a gullible electorate, or at least enough of them, a pup by telling his target market what they wanted to hear. He is a Marketer, of himself, extrordinaire! The reality of the outurn will be markedly different in the case of the US, the Brits have not yet copped on, four month later.

This attitude is why Trump won. And this is why he'll win again in 2020. People who want to go about their lives get tired of being demonized because some twit wants to pander for votes.

You want to win make a convincing argument. Throwing insults around like a child turns people against you.

pedroeibar1

JohnMc1 wrote: »

This is why I'm giving him a chance. The Lawyers and Career Politician that never worked an Honest to God job have ruined our Countries. So let's see what a Business Man can do.

While I agree we have a surfeit of teachers with no business experience, Trump is a failed businessman who has made money out of bankruptcies - that is why Forbes and other reputable publications query his net worth claims. Take for example the Plaza in Midtown / CPS which he bought with a borrowed $450+million including renovation costs, he got the cash-flow and a very nice income out of it but his business model failed miserably, totally, so he did a Chapter 11 where his creditors took a huge write-down (50%??) and his own stake was heavily diluted – the hotel was sold a few years later for about $300 million. From north of $500 million to about $300 million in a few years is not success. Many other examples out there!

mrawkward

Mr Trump's economic adviser Stephen Moore has said a flood of US companies will leave Ireland. The US pharma sector has huge immovable plant infrastructure in place that would cost astronomical numbers to replicate in the US and then they would have to assemble the tech teams to run them. The Microsofts, Googles and FaceBooks have multi-lingual technical and EMEA support/localisation staff here, try finding them at double the money in California or anywhere on the West Coast USA, no chance. As for working in the Boonies USA, joke. Not to mention the liklihood of reprisal duty levies on such services being provided from the US to the EU and any other market the new adminstration might choose to errect trade barriers. Mutinationals are aptly named and they may pay lip service to governments but make the real commercial decision based on the almighty dollar. There will be the normal ebb and flow , the flow may well be less in the short term but it will normalise reasonably quickly.

His victory speech music was prescient " you cant always get what you want"

Digital_Guy

mrawkward wrote: »

Mr Trump's economic adviser Stephen Moore has said a flood of US companies will leave Ireland. The US pharma sector has huge immovable plant infrastructure in place that would cost astronomical numbers to replicate in the US and then they would have to assemble the tech teams to run them. The Microsofts, Googles and FaceBooks have multi-lingual technical and EMEA support/localisation staff here, try finding them at double the money in California or anywhere on the West Coast USA, no chance. As for working in the Boonies USA, joke. Not to mention the liklihood of reprisal duty levies on such services being provided from the US to the EU and any other market the new adminstration might choose to errect trade barriers. Mutinationals are aptly named and they may pay lip service to governments but make the real commercial decision based on the almighty dollar. There will be the normal ebb and flow , the flow may well be less in the short term but it will normalise reasonably quickly.

His victory speech music was prescient " you cant always get what you want"

And that's his economic advisor - makes you wonder if they nothing anything at all about business.

JohnMc1

Trump has every right to entice Companies originally created in America to return. Its up to the EU to entice those same Companies to stay in Europe.

Digital_Guy

JohnMc1 wrote: »

Trump has every right to entice Companies originally created in America to return. Its up to the EU to entice those same Companies to stay in Europe.

True, but realistically the likes of Google and other multinationals aren't going to just close up and move back to the US. More likely it will result in fewer US companies coming here, which clearly isn't good. That said it might make us focus more on creating more on indigenous businesses instead of relying so much on FDI.

JohnMc1

Digital_Guy wrote: »

True, but realistically the likes of Google and other multinationals aren't going to just close up and move back to the US. More likely it will result in fewer US companies coming here, which clearly isn't good. That said it might make us focus more on creating more on indigenous businesses instead of relying so much on FDI.

Most likely he's hoping to get them to restore their Corporate HQ status in the US. Not have them close up shop entirely in Europe. I'm sure he sees the benefits of companies that serve Europe and elsewhere having factories and regional headquarters there.

mrawkward

These MNCs do not have a geographic domicile.. it can be where suits them best. Trump and his gang are naive along with a few on here!!

Digital_Guy

JohnMc1 wrote: »

Most likely he's hoping to get them to restore their Corporate HQ status in the US. Not have them close up shop entirely in Europe. I'm sure he sees the benefits of companies that serve Europe and elsewhere having factories and regional headquarters there.

They don't have any HQ though, that's the thing.

maninasia

So many errors in this thread.
Us multinationals MOSTLY base in Ireand cos we are part of the EU so they run their revenue through here at a low tax rate.

The other stuff is extra cream on the pie that's all. So it's EU tax policy which will determine US investment in Ireland not Trump. The Americans still need to do business in Europe.

Some money might flow back from overseas accounts , some increased investment in US but don't see anything that will really change substantially current business situatjon in Ireland...thats all determined by the EU.

By the way , the USd is expected to get STRONGER not weaker!

petethedrummer

pedroeibar1 wrote: »

Other posters and I have already mentioned infrastructure projects - but they need lots of cash, which is not available yet and will not become available until Trump gets his corporate tax deal through Congress and (perhaps) the once-off levy on funds held outside the US. That is not a foregone conclusion, nor is it going to be a hold your breath event.

The American government spends first and taxes second. It does not need to tax to spend, as is the case with any country with it's own currency (i.e pretty much every country bar the members of the Euro). The deficit ceiling is a self-imposed constraint, that always get's voted down.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sectoral_balances
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chartalism

pedroeibar1

petethedrummer wrote: »

The American government spends first and taxes second. It does not need to tax to spend, as is the case with any country with it's own currency (i.e pretty much every country bar the members of the Euro). The deficit ceiling is a self-imposed constraint, that always get's voted down.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sectoral_balances
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chartalism

C’mon Pete, You should know that Wiki is not acceptable as a source. Trotting out a few truisms does not add much to the topic.

Laurence Kotlikoff* never was a fan of Hilary, but admits that “Clinton's policy plans never rose to the level of complete and utter stupidity -- plans that are based on undocumented assertions that don't qualify even as "alternative facts" coupled with a third-grade understanding of economics. That's what we are facing with the Trump Administration.”
(*Kotlikoff is Professor of Economics at Boston University, a Fellow of the American Academy, a Research Associate of the NBER, and President of Economic Security Planning, Inc.)

Last year the U.S. budget deficit widened by about one third to about $600 billion. Although the Budget Office is projecting a short-term narrowing, they expect it to widen medium-long term. That was before Trump proposed a sweeping overhaul of the tax code and cutting taxes, while at the same time stating he would not touch the real problem issues of Social Security and Medicare. What is worse, his pick for Treasury, Mnuchin, already has admitted that he had no idea about Medicare’s finances or how to reform them.
The National Review, not known as a lefty organ, also rips into Trump’s lack of understanding of the economic issues facing the US.

pedroeibar1

pedroeibar1 wrote: »

C’mon Pete, You should know that Wiki is not acceptable as a source. Trotting out a few truisms does not add much to the topic.

Laurence Kotlikoff* never was a fan of Hilary, but admits that “Clinton's policy plans never rose to the level of complete and utter stupidity -- plans that are based on undocumented assertions that don't qualify even as "alternative facts" coupled with a third-grade understanding of economics. That's what we are facing with the Trump Administration.”
(*Kotlikoff is Professor of Economics at Boston University, a Fellow of the American Academy, a Research Associate of the NBER, and President of Economic Security Planning, Inc.)

Last year the U.S. budget deficit widened by about one third to about $600 billion. Although the Budget Office is projecting a short-term narrowing, they expect it to widen medium-long term. That was before Trump proposed a sweeping overhaul of the tax code and cutting taxes, while at the same time stating he would not touch the real problem issues of Social Security and Medicare. What is worse, his pick for Treasury, Mnuchin, already has admitted that he had no idea about Medicare’s finances or how to reform them.
The National Review, not known as a lefty organ, also rips into Trump’s lack of understanding of the economic issues facing the US.

A gentlemans wager Pedro that two years from today, the US economy will be growing at a healthy rate, the debt static if not decreasing and Europe prospering as a result of it. I'm also game for a bottle of fine whiskey or fine wine!
I have yet to meet or read an economist in recent times that gets things right. Their social or salaried views often determine their leanings consciously or not!

pedroeibar1

Deleted User wrote: »

A gentlemans wager Pedro that two years from today, the US economy will be growing at a healthy rate, the debt static if not decreasing and Europe prospering as a result of it. I'm also game for a bottle of fine whiskey or fine wine!
I have yet to meet or read an economist in recent times that gets things right. Their social or salaried views often determine their leanings consciously or not!

Sorry El R, I have to respectfully decline, as I don’t do wagers, not even on the Grand National nor the lotto.
In any event, two years is too short a timeframe. Trump’s time in power will be fraught with tantrums at not getting his own way, and blaming everybody else. My guess is that his impact will not be very big, as he will be blocked/stymied at every turn. Both of us probably could claim to be correct, as Trump will produce figures to prove whatever he demands – ‘alternative facts’ and all that....

duploelabs

Well if you look at nordstrom, who's stock bounced up 1%, due to criticism by Trump for them dropping Ivanka Trump's clothing line, it could go either way

BlinkingLights

He's going to have to stop throwing his weight around and interfering in individual businesses. It's ultimately going to backfire on him and I'm honestly surprised there hasn't been a massive lawsuit.

The US is not a command economy.