Melbourne Cup

Copper_pipe

HeartBreak City and Wicklow Brave have bad draws out in 23 and 24 respectively.

Joao Moriera rides for A J Martin and Martin thinks Wicklow Brave is the one to beat..

Nulty

I took Oceanographer at 50/1 a few weeks ago. Backed him in the Eboracum as well. Hope he can back up quickly.

Would like to see either Cumani or Bondi Beach win it otherwise

HarshOstrich

Big orange for me
Form of his wins are very strong
Beat sheichzayedroad 2 lengths and he won on champions day.
5th last year front running and better draw this year, trainer said they will make it more of a test this year

gazza1

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Big orange for me
Form of his wins are very strong
Beat sheichzayedroad 2 lengths and he won on champions day.
5th last year front running and better draw this year, trainer said they will make it more of a test this year

Have backed this myself. Think hes got a big chance
BOL

gazza1

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Big orange for me
Form of his wins are very strong
Beat sheichzayedroad 2 lengths and he won on champions day.
5th last year front running and better draw this year, trainer said they will make it more of a test this year

Have backed this myself. Think hes got a big chance
BOL

longshotvalue

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Big orange for me
Form of his wins are very strong
Beat sheichzayedroad 2 lengths and he won on champions day.
5th last year front running and better draw this year, trainer said they will make it more of a test this year

He has a great chance but it'll break my heart to back him this year when when i was on last year EW at 80/1 4 places:(. I'm looking at a couple of aussie big priced outsiders, when there are more bookies paying 5 places ill be stick em up.

Mellor

WhoShotTheBarman for me, pulled up in a recent race. Setting the up for a kiwi steal here

4068ac1elhodqr

Got a few added to e/w mixed Accums last night,
went for big numbers as it's 6places 1/4 in a 24 horse race:

Qewy @21 (6pl)
Secret Number @21 (6pl)

Sir J Hawkwood @67 (6pl)
Beautiful Romance @67 (6pl)

Peintre Celebre

Gonna chance Gallante and Our Ivanhowe ew

Nulty

Peter Moody analysis of runners here

http://www.foxsports.com.au/horse-racing/2016-melbourne-cup-form-guide-champion-trainer-peter-moodys-verdict-on-every-runner-tips-odds/news-story/e8432c8e6eb95c5c9821f74689ffc0c2

Francie Barrett

Gone for Tony's horse, interesting change of ownership.

Meath Centre Forward

The Irish have 3 good chances tonight, I'd slightly favour Wicklow Brave of the trio but I'll stick with the locals as you'd be a poor man backing Irish runners in the Melbourne Cup if they hadn't D K Weld beside their name.

Almoonqith (20/1) was finishing fast in the Caufield Cup and Gallante (66/1) looks an outsider worth taking a chance on. Remember him winning the Grand Prix de Paris nicely and reading his trainer quote in the Racing Post stating a line should be put through his last run offers encouragement.

ON ZEE BRIDLE

Wicklow brave ew will do for me

naughto

Any one else having problems logging in to there pp account

Bondi Beach for me.

bladespin

Went for Heartbreak city and Big orange (HC bad draw but think it's good for a place at least), roll on 4am.

Copper_pipe

Saw this on Twitter :pac:
Heartbreak City's last 4 runs have been 0111
Tomorrow's date is 01-11

Its meant to be :pac::pac:

nuckeythompson

Copper_pipe wrote:

HeartBreak City and Wicklow Brave have bad draws out in 23 and 24 respectively.

Is this on atr or racing UK?

Copper_pipe

ATR

4068ac1elhodqr

May be a http://melbournecup.twitter.com live stream for the 1st time.
3pm (AEDT), 04:00 (GMT), with live tweets on the right hand side of video stream.

Harry Angstrom

Can't see the likes of Wicklow Brave and Big Orange being near quick enough. Place possibilities maybe, but Wicklow Brave has an awful draw to boot.
The race suits a 12 furlong-type horse rather than an out and out stayer as the pace always seems to steady a lot down the back straight. Even though Hartnell won a Queen's Vase for Mark Johnston, he seems to have developed a bit more speed over shorter distances since being sent down under. Worth a few bob at 11/2.

Nulty

Excess Knowledge maybe?

Nulty

Of course it would be one that no one mentioned!

What a run from Heatbreak City. Well named horse

Mysterypunter

Almandin. Tony Martin 2nd.

Nulty

Yeah, top 6 were (I think)

Almandin
Heartbreak City
Hartnell
Qewy
Almoonqith
Who Shot Thebarman
Beautiful Romance

prettyboy81

Heartbreak City aptly named unlucky for the punters.

Francie Barrett

First two horses were some machines, but for the draw, I can't help but think that Tony's horse would have won.

tryfix

Francie Barrett wrote: »

First two horses were some machines, but for the draw, I can't help but think that Tony's horse would have won.

The first two were by German sires and older horses really dominated the race. The ages of the finishers were 6, 6, 5, 6, 8, 6, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4.

It seems to take a hardened slow maturing type to do well in the race. A bit like the Grand National in ways.

Mellor

Overall 4 and 5 year old have the best record statistically. But the last 10 years have been dominated by 6 year olds.

Today's winner was 7, not 6. And all 24 finished.

tryfix

Mellor wrote: »

Overall 4 and 5 year old have the best record statistically. But the last 10 years have been dominated by 6 year olds.

Today's winner was 7, not 6. And all 24 finished.

The Racing Post says he is 6 and he was a 3yo running in 3yo only races in 2013.

2014 =4, 2015= 5 2016 =6....

Interesting thing about the last 10 years, the complexion of the race has most likely been changed by the fairly recent mass importation of fairly high quality ex European staying horses as well as by the overseas challenge. Maybe before that the race was at the mercy of the more precociously bred Australian horses which allowed for a different race dynamic?

Peintre Celebre

Mellor wrote: »

Overall 4 and 5 year old have the best record statistically. But the last 10 years have been dominated by 6 year olds.

Today's winner was 7, not 6. And all 24 finished.

Different ages in the different hemispheres

Tony Ansell

You knew

Gregk961

Giovanni Plump Memorial wrote: »

More often than not this chap gets close, or in this case 3 of the top 4 inc. winner.

I disagree on Ged Egan I think he is a sub-par tipster. His columns usually have some decent points in there but the results are very often lacking, especially when it comes to value.

I consider the dubai carnival my bread and butter when it comes to racing so I often give his page a look on a Wednesday night and his knowledge is quite impressive. However, he picks some shockers, often placing too much emphasis on winning Carnival form and ignoring the actual shape of those races. I think he hardly picked a winner for the whole of this years Carnival, which is not sin in itself until you consider that he picks 3+ horses a week and look at the price ranges he usually plucks from. In previous years he has had more success, posting a profit the year previous but I still wouldn't be a fan of his method.

Of course picking 3 out of the top 4 in a huge race like that Is an impressive feat(I got 1 in the top 5 out of 3 ew doubles) but I wouldn't base my opinion of him based on 1 race.

When it comes to international racing Ron Wood who does occasional work for RP spotlight betting pages(of all places) is someone id respect a lot more when it comes to picking a winner, although I wouldn't recommend following any of them to the word if im honest.

Lt Dan

Francie Barrett wrote: »

First two horses were some machines, but for the draw, I can't help but think that Tony's horse would have won.

Well, I regularly look over Hong Kong racing papers online and my god Moaira is close to a God over there. His strike record is outstanding, unmatched and the Hong Kong lads are the type who are "what have you done for me lately" sort and would not hesitate to jock you off. He has won many races in "weak" jockey countries like Japan (whose horses are underrated) and Singapore - winning 7-8 handicap races through the card on a given night. He has some, alas, limited success in Australia but the Aussies did not seem to pushed about him - no surprise, they are hard to please

I was wondering whether he was overrated.

Nah, he is pretty damn good. He won a group 2 or 3 race earlier in the card and was in the top 3 in a few other races in Oz over the last few days. My opinion on him has changed . He is pretty damn good. Since Hong Kong season sorta ends in June, I would like to see him come over to the UK to see how good he is.

Mellor

tryfix wrote: »

The Racing Post says he is 6 and he was a 3yo running in 3yo only races in 2013.

2014 =4, 2015= 5 2016 =6....

Then the racing post made a mistake.
He was 6 at the start of the year. But turned 7 when the spring racing season started.
As far as the record books are concerned, the yesterday's winner was a 7 year old.

Francie Barrett

Lt Dan wrote: »

Well, I regularly look over Hong Kong racing papers online and my god Moaira is close to a God over there. His strike record is outstanding, unmatched and the Hong Kong lads are the type who are "what have you done for me lately" sort and would not hesitate to jock you off. He has won many races in "weak" jockey countries like Japan (whose horses are underrated) and Singapore - winning 7-8 handicap races through the card on a given night. He has some, alas, limited success in Australia but the Aussies did not seem to pushed about him - no surprise, they are hard to please

I was wondering whether he was overrated.

Nah, he is pretty damn good. He won a group 2 or 3 race earlier in the card and was in the top 3 in a few other races in Oz over the last few days. My opinion on him has changed . He is pretty damn good. Since Hong Kong season sorta ends in June, I would like to see him come over to the UK to see how good he is.

The race was a mad tactical affair altogether. You could see some horses trying to drop in, others trying to go prominent, some wide, some by the rail. There was lots of diving and switching with jockey's looking around them like mad trying to find gaps, etc. It was a real horseman's race and I think Moreira got the tactics spot on and was unlucky to come up against one that probably just got its neck in front because of a more favourable draw. Anyway, I reckon that's Heartbreak City's hurdling career over, because if it can put a performance in like that, then it's be going all over the world to find stayers races in Hong Kong and Meydan for huge money.

Lt Dan

Francie Barrett wrote: »

The race was a mad tactical affair altogether. You could see some horses trying to drop in, others trying to go prominent, some wide, some by the rail. There was lots of diving and switching with jockey's looking around them like mad trying to find gaps, etc. It was a real horseman's race and I think Moreira got the tactics spot on and was unlucky to come up against one that probably just got its neck in front because of a more favourable draw. Anyway, I reckon that's Heartbreak City's hurdling career over, because if it can put a performance in like that, then it's be going all over the world to find stayers races in Hong Kong and Meydan for huge money.

Yep. I use to (still do) bemoan the fact that stayers races in Ireland and Britain are a bit of a dirty word, but that would be unfair as the Gold Cup is still prestigious (in my mind) and is a Group 1 , are the group 2s of the Goodwood, Longsdale and Doncaster Cups. Then you have the Irish St Leger , the French St Leger and the Cadran. Throw in the earlier Yorkshire Cup in May and maybe the Curragh Cup and St Leger Trials and you got a pretty good programme for Cup horses. Problem is, prize money for the Goodwood , which was part of the Triple Crown Stayers races, is peanuts. 50 grand. Lonsdale is a bit more. That race on Champions Day will and should soon be a Group 1. But then, if you are the GC winner you get punished for winning either of the Group 2 races with a penalty.

I would love to see QIPCO or someone else (I know those races are added up for points in the British Championship Series) do something to promote an official Stayers Triple Crown or a Proper Championship with better prize money (every trainer would say that). You saw how Cue Card was gunning for that Million Quid bonus if he won at the Haydock Group 1, King George and Cheltenham Gold Cup. You see the sprints have a world series with the Nunthrope or July Cup included and culminates in Hong Kong on International Night.

Again, I know there is a British Champion Series, but if you extended it to Ireland and Europe, with the Irish and French St Leger and maybe the Cadran added, but with the Gold Cup, Goodwood and a toss up between Donny and Lonsdale and the Triple Crown and only those who won or placed in those races and the Irish and French races that I mentioned could compete in the Long Distance race at Ascot.

It might encourage trainers and owners to keep some decent 4-5 year old horses training on, it might include some more National Hunt trainers like Nicky Henderson, Gordon Elliot and Phillip Hobbs (no stranger to big handicaps on the flat) and AJ Martin to really push for it rather than those meh hurdling handicaps. And then, there is Willie. The French have had some decent stayers (and still do) . Hell the likes of Brian Ellison and Easterby might get their days in the sun.

Anything to ensure that races like the Irish St Leger , which is a Group 1 and on a lovely time for those who fancy a pop at Melbourne - has proper stayers and prize money or other bonuses might lead to trainers not being scared of O'Brien - whose record in that race ain't that great. We know Weld is capable of training a good horse for the likes of Dr Lambe.

We all saw this season , with some very close runs (and jockey loosing his whip at Chester) that Wicklow Brave is a solid horse who ran well (really well) at Chester , Ascot and the Lonsdale. MissUnited was a bit of a wonder horse after the Galway Hurdle with a wonderful place attempt in the French St Leger and then almost making all in the Gold Cup and then her great run at Goodwood (same she got injured , would like to have seen her try the Irish St Leger, and eek, Melbourne)

If done fairly, you won't be seeing horses been crucified at the weights. We look at the winners and placers at Melbourne Cup over the years. Bar Floriente, Makybe Diva, So You Think (gutsy decision to run him)Red Cadeaux (his internationals runs, not just at Melbourne were excellent) Hartnell, Max Dynamite, Purple Moon , Protectionist, and maybe Green Moon , the form before and after the MC of winners and placers is pathetic. How can that Cup really say that Prince of Prenanze etc were great horses when they were given extremely low weights because their trainer more or less cheated by placing such a horse in 6-7 furlong races at huge weight and who had no business running in such, have their horses run every 3 weeks ala (or less) Mark Johnson and thus get the small weight. Horses like Big Orange get punished for being damn consistent over a period of 2 1/2 years (Tom Quaelly started the ball rolling in Newmarket Handicaps) And then the costs of going over

If there was some incentive to race here with good prize money and Prestige , the long distance races would be even more enjoyable.

Going back to your point, yep. Martin would be bonkers not to try the International route as taken with some success by Red Cadeaux and Purple Moon. Stoute over the years had some good horses like Golen and Singpiel etc that were successful abroad. There is a great Group 2 race in Dubai with about half a million for the winner , or even the Sheema - Halford had some success over there in 2013-2014. But for now, The Hong Kong Vase is worth a shot and get properly ready for next March . Bye bye hurdles

Lt Dan

Look at this garbage in Australia.

You go and win the Victoria Derby less than a week ago, and now you give serious thinking to running in another Group 1 within that week. You have United States running hard in possible a third top level race in 2 weeks. How on earth do they possibly think that they will win, even if they are Geldings? I know Cheltenham-Aintree-Punchestown is a big ask but at least there are a few weeks,nearly a month between them. https://www.racing.com/news/2016-11-02/vadamos-scottish-accept-for-new-emirates .

tipptom

Moaria gave Heartbreak city a fantastic ride but was beaten on the day by a horse better used to the conditions and draw and who won a bit cosily.


Thought Spencer on Big Orange was wasting his time fighting and swinging out of the horse trying to get him to sit in and should have let him bowl along in front.


From what I hear they are saying Bondi Beach has turned in to a lairy f**ker.

tryfix

Mellor wrote: »

Then the racing post made a mistake.
He was 6 at the start of the year. But turned 7 when the spring racing season started.
As far as the record books are concerned, the yesterday's winner was a 7 year old.

Yes, no, maybe?

The horse is a 6 year old Northern Hemisphere bred individual. The Australians can call it a 7 year old by their Southern Hemisphere breeding season clock but the horse will always be a Northern Hemisphere bred horse and would revert to being a 6yo if he ran in the Northern Hemisphere before January 1st 2017

HarshOstrich

tipptom wrote: »

Moaria gave Heartbreak city a fantastic ride but was beaten on the day by a horse better used to the conditions and draw and who won a bit cosily.


Thought Spencer on Big Orange was wasting his time fighting and swinging out of the horse trying to get him to sit in and should have let him bowl along in front.


From what I hear they are saying Bondi Beach has turned in to a lairy f**ker.

Big orange doesn't have the gears, if they rode the race again, I think they would lead at all costs and go as fast as they could, he travelled well into the straight, prob wanted another half mile

Mellor

tryfix wrote: »

The horse is a 6 year old Northern Hemisphere bred individual. The Australians can call it a 7 year old by their Southern Hemisphere breeding season clock but the horse will always be a Northern Hemisphere bred horse and would revert to being a 6yo if he ran in the Northern Hemisphere before January 1st 2017

I'm aware the horse was German bred. March 2010. And sure, the horse has a few weeks left as a 6year old in Europe. But the fact is the horse isn't racing in Europe. More importantly, the statistics we were talking about are Australian. We were talking about the first 10 or 15 horses home, plus the last 10 or 20 winners. The purpose is pointing out these stats for the future, the formguides listed Almandin as a 7 year old.


If you are going to roll back Almandin to the northern age system. You should be rolling back Hartnell, Heartbreak City, Qewy, and half the field. As well as Americain, Dunaden, Green Moon, Fiorente, and Protectionist. 6 of the last 7 winners.

tryfix

Mellor wrote: »

I'm aware the horse was German bred. March 2010. And sure, the horse has a few weeks left as a 6year old in Europe. But the fact is the horse isn't racing in Europe. More importantly, the statistics we were talking about are Australian. We were talking about the first 10 or 15 horses home, plus the last 10 or 20 winners. The purpose is pointing out these stats for the future, the formguides listed Almandin as a 7 year old.


If you are going to roll back Almandin to the northern age system. You should be rolling back Hartnell, Heartbreak City, Qewy, and half the field. As well as Americain, Dunaden, Green Moon, Fiorente, and Protectionist. 6 of the last 7 winners.

It's not a situation of me rolling back the age of the horses with my mistaken assumptions about the age of past winners, it's more complicated than that because people in this part of the world assessing the Northern Hemisphere raced runners competing in Australia will be looking at age related info and racing form that's out of sync with the Australian delivered race results but not out of sync with the Northern Hemisphere delivered race results from Australia.

It's really messed up stuff, with the Australian results showing the winner Almandin as a 7 year old and the fifth Who Shot Thebarman as an 8yo while the UK based Racing Post shows the result as Almandin as a 6yo and the fifth Who Shot Thebarman as an 8yo.

Mellor

tryfix wrote: »

It's really messed up stuff, with the Australian results showing the winner Almandin as a 7 year old and the fifth Who Shot Thebarman as an 8yo while the UK based Racing Post shows the result as Almandin as a 6yo and the fifth Who Shot Thebarman as an 8yo.

I do understand what you are saying. The statistics and the form guides are both unreliable. In recent years at least, and the older data, before overseas runners is less relevant.
Maybe it's best to run the stats on both hemispheres separately. One for next year perhaps.