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Will property prices ever return to their peak?

  • 28-10-2016 8:22pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,482 ✭✭✭


    Like a lot of other people, my parents bought a house at the peak in 2006, and it's worth about 30% less now. They bought a 3 bed semi in Dublin for 650k and its not worth around 450k.

    Will the market return as height as that, or have the central bank rules put a stop to all that.


«1

Comments

  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 843 ✭✭✭HandsomeDan


    Give it about 10 or 15 years, provided brexit doesnt destroy us.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    It might happen in the next 20 years ,depends on does brexit hurt the irish economy, will people start shopping up the north ,if euro is worth more than sterling.
    will the uk reduce imports from ireland .
    I know someone bought 2bed apartment in athlone,in 2006, cost 150k, now its worth 75k.
    The central bank rules mean that people can,t borrow 10 times their income, and it means that house prices have got some basic connection with the real world .


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 862 ✭✭✭Zenify


    Like a lot of other people, my parents bought a house at the peak in 2006, and it's worth about 30% less now. They bought a 3 bed semi in Dublin for 650k and its not worth around 450k.

    Will the market return as height as that, or have the central bank rules put a stop to all that.

    i like to look at it this way...

    with the central bank rules in order to sell that property the buyer would need 130k deposit and a combined income of just under 150k. Do you think someone with that income would be interested in that property?

    There aren't that many buyers with that sort of money.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 532 ✭✭✭beechwood55


    Are they living in the house or did they buy it as an investment?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,049 ✭✭✭groovyg


    Do your parents want to sell it? Is it their principle residence or an investment?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,482 ✭✭✭Hollister11


    Zenify wrote: »
    i like to look at it this way...

    with the central bank rules in order to sell that property the buyer would need 130k deposit and a combined income of just under 150k. Do you think someone with that income would be interested in that property?

    There aren't that many buyers with that sort of money.
    If I was earning that money. I wouldn't pay it for the house. It's a 1400 sq ft, 3 bed, in a Dublin suburb. Nice but nothing out of the ordinary.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,482 ✭✭✭Hollister11


    groovyg wrote: »
    Do your parents want to sell it? Is it their principle residence or an investment?

    It's the family home. There not actively trying to sell, but if the prices go to 550/600 they would put it on the market.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,901 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    Like a lot of other people, my parents bought a house at the peak in 2006, and it's worth about 30% less now. They bought a 3 bed semi in Dublin for 650k and its not worth around 450k.

    Will the market return as height as that, or have the central bank rules put a stop to all that.

    200k in 10 years.
    Av Cost of renting a property worth 650k 1800*12*10=216,000
    They haven't done to bad. Tracker mortgage ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 788 ✭✭✭pillphil


    Give it about 10 or 15 years, provided brexit doesnt destroy us.

    If you don't ignore inflation, that's pretty much the same value.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 971 ✭✭✭Senecio


    It's the family home. There not actively trying to sell, but if the prices go to 550/600 they would put it on the market.

    Why would they sell at that point? They need to live somewhere and would need to buy in the same inflated market.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,482 ✭✭✭Hollister11


    Senecio wrote: »
    Why would they sell at that point? They need to live somewhere and would need to buy in the same inflated market.

    They have other properties they would move into


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,168 ✭✭✭Ursus Horribilis


    That's where any sympathy I might have had for them dissipates.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,482 ✭✭✭Hollister11


    That's where any sympathy I might have had for them dissipates.

    This is why I hate being irish sometimes. Once you have assists, people seem to hate you.

    BTW I never said we were struggling. I didn't ask for sympathy, I was need to know if prices will reach their peak.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,174 ✭✭✭Dearg81


    This is why I hate being irish sometimes. Once you have assists, people seem to hate you.

    BTW I never said we were struggling. I didn't ask for sympathy, I was need to know if prices will reach their peak.

    Prices will go back up again eventually but your guess is as good as mine as to when that will happen.

    I dont think people hate other people with assets as you put it. They just dislike the personal greed in wanting house prices to be over inflated just for personal gain which ignores the fact that it would be bad for other people who are already struggling to buy at current prices.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,834 ✭✭✭air


    Nobody is begrudging them but it obviously won't have any impact on your parents whether or not prices do return to their peak or not.
    They're simply suffering from loss aversion and need to get over it to be honest.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,341 ✭✭✭miezekatze


    I think they'd only go back up to that level if there was signifcant inflation. People just don't earn enough money to be able to buy houses at those prices. They didn't 10-15 years ago either, but hopefully people will never be allowed to take on crazy levels of debt like that again.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    housing is mainly about where people can live. It's primarily social. However, it became our biggest industry and was unsustainable.
    It totally queered the social side of the equation. No desire to go back there.
    We are now suffering the through of the peak.
    If it isn't their primary residence, they can make up their 'loss' by renting at the exorbitant rents that are out there.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,834 ✭✭✭air


    Salaries have completely flat lined like never before. Plenty of graduates today are earning less than the same graduates almost 15 years ago. This is unprecedented in this country. Given that house prices are primarily decided by the availability of credit, and that the amount of that credit is now tied inextricably to those same salaries, it's hard to see much scope for further growth.

    Our previous house price growth was driven by leveraging of the normalisation of our salaries with those of our international competitors. Now that our salaries match or exceed most other economies there isn't the same scope for salary and thus house price increases that there one was.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    Prices were pushed up by crazy reckless bank lending, you work in dunnes store,
    Sure we,ll lend you 10 times your income to buy a house in longford for 250k.
    inflation is low, interest rates are low.Many jobs are being taken over by automation , robots ,computers , i see no chance of a big rise in wages .
    So prices may never go back to the peaks of the celtic tiger boom.
    it would take a genius to predict the stock market in 5-10 years time.
    And the housing market is the same .Theres too many unpredicatable variables ,oil prices ,interest rates ,eu policy on corporate tax rates ,
    wars in the middle east, isis, brexit, the euro vs sterling rate .
    My opinion is prices in dublin may rise slightly every year due to lack of supply .
    but don,t take anything for granted .And don.t presume i that prices will go back to values in 2006 in the boom times .The eu and the central bank are watching lending rates closely
    to prevent another boom bust .
    We may have a crisis when all the people who are now in their 50,s retire in 10-20
    years time and they,ll depend on state pensions and medical services to live
    We still have a large debt to pay off due to the cost of the crash in 2007.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 161 ✭✭appfry


    Read the threads from 4 or 5 years ago where people were adamant that rents would never go to peak again. It just could never happen. It would not be allowed to happen. Impossible.

    Nothing is impossible, but you cant predict where your parents property will be priced in 10 years time.
    Maybe it will be worth twice what it is no, maybe half.

    Dont worry about it. If its ok now chances are it will be ok as time goes on.
    Just pay the mortgage off and be done with it.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,513 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    riclad wrote: »
    We may have a crisis when all the people who are now in their 50,s retire in 10-20
    years time and they,ll depend on state pensions and medical services to live
    We still have a large debt to pay off due to the cost of the crash in 2007.

    Or they'll rent out their houses to the working generation that can't afford to buy and have a good pension income. As economies grow home ownership in prime locations often drops dramatically. Investors can afford the property and it makes economical sense due to rental income but not affordable for private ownership.
    It is already in place in Dublin for decades and people accept it even though they don't see it. All the old Georgian properties were once single households even though they did have servants and others living in them.
    Houses in the suburbs are split and being split with many more to come in time. Well serviced areas are massively underpopulated in Dublin filled with many retirees. They are dying off and the houses are not getting new families buying them. When I first bought 15 years ago, on my road there were 3 houses already split. Now there are 12. Might be slow but it is happening. The more it happens then more will look at as an option.
    Very easy to convert a 3 bed house into two 2 bed accommodation for relatively small amounts of money. Rental income increases by at least a quarter. Many people get a pension payout at retirement that can mean they can afford the initial costs based on the return.
    Considering this prices could reach the peak in less than 5 years as there simply isn't enough built with continuing pressure on existing stock. It isn't all about private purchase.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 952 ✭✭✭hytrogen


    Ray Palmer wrote:
    .. Well serviced areas are massively underpopulated in Dublin filled with many retirees. They are dying off and the houses are not getting new families buying them.. .
    Believe it or not they certainly are being filled with families.
    Over the past 5 years I've seen elderly owners passing away or moving on, even families splitting up in my area. Out of 5 houses, 1 became a rental for a period and has recently been sold to a young family. The rest were bought by young families, 1 of which was levelled and rebuilt completely (looks fab but lost some of the old character though the layout is now far superior)
    I'm quite glad to say the "vulture funds" haven't come knocking to my area but the estate agents certainly have, to a point of irritation now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,793 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Ray Palmer wrote:
    Or they'll rent out their houses to the working generation that can't afford to buy and have a good pension income. As economies grow home ownership in prime locations often drops dramatically. Investors can afford the property and it makes economical sense due to rental income but not affordable for private ownership.

    Intresting point, the continuation of this trend, were it to take hold would be that each generation would be worse off than the previous generation. Having children would be an unaffordable luxury for many

    Costs relating to older population would sky rocket. Debt also leading to bankruptcy of the nation


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    Rents have gone up in dublin since the 90s, bedsits were banned ,rents rise due to demand and lack of supply ,house prices are based on demand ,
    lack of supply ,but are also based on lending rules ,
    eg 3.5 times your income limit, and you need a large deposit 10-20 per cent .
    irish governments do,nt control rent , they leave it to the market.
    so if you bought house for 500k and its now worth 300k,
    It would be foolish to presume in 10 years it,ll be worth 500k .
    The era of large council estates being built is over , there,ll be maybe 1000 social housing units built every year .


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,513 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Intresting point, the continuation of this trend, were it to take hold would be that each generation would be worse off than the previous generation. Having children would be an unaffordable luxury for many

    Costs relating to older population would sky rocket. Debt also leading to bankruptcy of the nation

    Look at Japan, things evolve and it takes a long time to collapse. Things don't always correct themselves like people think.

    Where I live the people dying are not being replaced with new families owning, if it is a family they are renting. Maybe one went to a young couple but they appear to have high paying jobs with luxury cars. They could be in massive debt for all I know.

    Worse off then the previous generation is very relative. My mam's neighbours lived in a 3 bed corpo house and had 8 kids. I grew up in a 3 bed with 2 other siblings. Kids now are expected to have a room each. The houses have central heating now and two toilets if more than one floor. Better off standard of living for the majority by far now


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,379 ✭✭✭newacc2015


    miezekatze wrote: »
    I think they'd only go back up to that level if there was signifcant inflation. People just don't earn enough money to be able to buy houses at those prices. They didn't 10-15 years ago either, but hopefully people will never be allowed to take on crazy levels of debt like that again.

    I disagree re significant inflation is needed. Look at Denmark and Sweden who basically have no inflation, but their central banks are defending their currency against speculation ie people are betting against the peg failing like what happened in Switzerland. So interest rates are super low and credit is easy.

    I think if Ireland was like Belgium or Germany where you can get 20 year fixed mortgages for 2%, I think even with central bank restrictions etc you will see inflated property prices again.

    Wages are flat lining in Sweden and Denmark, just like Ireland cheap and easy credit is hard to resist


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,513 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    riclad wrote: »
    Rents have gone up in dublin since the 90s, bedsits were banned ,rents rise due to demand and lack of supply ,house prices are based on demand ,
    lack of supply ,but are also based on lending rules ,
    eg 3.5 times your income limit, and you need a large deposit 10-20 per cent .
    irish governments do,nt control rent , they leave it to the market.
    so if you bought house for 500k and its now worth 300k,
    It would be foolish to presume in 10 years it,ll be worth 500k .
    The era of large council estates being built is over , there,ll be maybe 1000 social housing units built every year .

    Lending rules don't apply to investment money. When investors can buy property here and rent it tax free then value to them is more than a private buyer can borrow to. They can out price Irish investors too. What happens then is the private buyer is out of the market for certain properties. The same way Georgian houses were bought up by investment companies sand turned into business premises for the rental income that support pensions.

    It easy to see a company are two being set-up to split houses to do this for investors.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,127 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    Yes they will rise from today's levels but I don't see a return to 2006/07 prices happening anytime soon, if ever.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    IF joe bloggs goes to a bank and asks for a btl investment role the
    lending rules are extremely strict ,i understand companys can buy propertys direct from nama and avoid paying tax on rental income ,
    The government can close this loophole if they wish .or put an extra tax on foreign buyers but they have to comply with eu rules regarding
    investors and freedom to travel and invest in the eu.
    look at the nama ,northern ireland deal ,they sold off all their property in the north to
    on to one company.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 21,693 Mod ✭✭✭✭helimachoptor


    myself and the wife bought a house in 2007 :eek:
    It wasnt our most sensible life decision, however we've been very lucky and it's rented longterm to a council. The council i.e. taxpayer is going to pay the mortgage. I'm not concerned about prices for that house for 20 years tbh.



    We bought our now family home last year, we spent a chunk of money renovating, on the day we moved in we had an EA drop by to tell us we could make 100-150K is we sold it.. which would have put it at peak prices

    The house is in a nice part of SCD, big gardens, big houses, good amenities. It takes a chunk of change to buy one and they all need renovation (all executor sales) I havent seen one divided up tbh


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,280 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    Like a lot of other people, my parents bought a house at the peak in 2006, and it's worth about 30% less now. They bought a 3 bed semi in Dublin for 650k and its not worth around 450k.

    Will the market return as height as that, or have the central bank rules put a stop to all that.

    adjusted for inflation throughout the rest of time itself , nobody should ever pay 2005-2007 prices for any house in Ireland. But sadly, some will.

    If your parents are holding out to get rid of the house for what they paid for it then i'd say they are being a bit foolish. Somebody has to take the hit , and it really should be those who paid over the odds.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 161 ✭✭appfry


    adjusted for inflation throughout the rest of time itself , nobody should ever pay 2005-2007 prices for any house in Ireland. But sadly, some will.

    If your parents are holding out to get rid of the house for what they paid for it then i'd say they are being a bit foolish. Somebody has to take the hit , and it really should be those who paid over the odds.

    Well renters are paying 2005 - 2007 prices already now. Soon they will be paying even more than that. If there is money to be made due to the buying price being desirable for the rental income then that will effect prices big time. Of course the opposite could happen too if rents fall.

    We have a house in Dublin that we rent for most of the year while we live abroad. Serious thought now going into splitting that house in two and renting it out altogether and then renting a cheaper house down the country when we want to stay in Ireland.

    The rental income is just too good to ignore. Pity its Mr Noonan that gets the vast majority of it though. If he didnt have his snout in there it would be split and rented yesterday.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 750 ✭✭✭Harvey Normal


    miezekatze wrote: »
    I think they'd only go back up to that level if there was signifcant inflation. People just don't earn enough money to be able to buy houses at those prices. They didn't 10-15 years ago either, but hopefully people will never be allowed to take on crazy levels of debt like that again.

    This.

    Wage inflation is low. Most people post tax are where they were or below where they were in 2007. Taxes are higher. Unless inflation and wage inflation take off in the next 20 years then it won't happen and if inflation does takeoff then they won't be getting the same money back in real terms.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭Elliott S


    I sincerely hope prices never return to the peak. Those prices were crazy! People having to pay through the nose for ordinary family homes, not helped by people speculating on property.

    I know there are tons of people in negative equity but for them to ever recoup their losses means a return to an overheated, unsustainable market. It would be disasterous.

    <mod snip>


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 161 ✭✭appfry


    Is this the buying version of this thread?

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056659116/5

    I will come back in about 4 years and have a look :)

    That thread shows how much people actually really know about where a market is headed, compared to how much they think they do.

    There are lots more of them im sure.

    Its impossible to predict.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,513 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    appfry wrote: »

    Its impossible to predict.

    The report said rents would rise as did I so that sounds like an accurate prediction?

    There was a lot of people wishing rents to fall but with out any reasoning behind it. When you looked at the details it was obvious if nothing changed rents would rise. They did.

    People are now saying house prices can't and won't rise because people can't afford it. That is the same argument that was used to say rents wouldn't rise. Rents went up and people paid, some simply couldn't afford and became homeless. People were sure this couldn't happen. It did.

    Right now we are getting close to the point where houses will be out of the reach of individuals forever. The same thing has happened in all cities as they grow. Even when the city becomes poor certain property is held forever by companies and investors.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    The central bank and the bank rules , 3.5 times salary max loan amount,
    x per cent deposit are the main factor re house prices ,
    so i dont see price rises going to peak rates in 10 year s or more .
    we are in the era of low inflation ,low interest rates .
    People will still pay high rents ,they have no choice , you have to live somewhere ,
    but people have to have credit to buy a house and have a large deposit .
    its hard to save when u are paying 1000 per month rent.
    IN terms of longer than 10 years it,s impossible to predict things like oil prices,inflation, house prices .


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,513 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    riclad wrote: »
    The central bank and the bank rules , 3.5 times salary max loan amount,
    x per cent deposit are the main factor re house prices ,
    so i dont see price rises going to peak rates in 10 year s or more .
    we are in the era of low inflation ,low interest rates .
    People will still pay high rents ,they have no choice , you have to live somewhere ,
    but people have to have credit to buy a house and have a large deposit .
    its hard to save when u are paying 1000 per month rent.
    IN terms of longer than 10 years it,s impossible to predict things like oil prices,inflation, house prices .
    Why are you ignoring investment money?
    Home ownership will not remain the same way it has and has already changed directly as result of changes to society.
    People see all the housing issues as a direct result of the property crash but that is actually disguising the natural evolution of city growth.

    There is one massive disruption coming from Brexit but it could actually add fuel.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭ZeroThreat


    This is why I hate being irish sometimes. Once you have assists, people seem to hate you.

    BTW I never said we were struggling. I didn't ask for sympathy, I was need to know if prices will reach their peak.

    Rubbish, this seems more like selfishness on your end. You wish house prices to return to ridiculous over-inflated levels to benefit you personally, but this would have an adverse effect by pushing property prices even further beyond the reach of everyone else seeking to buy. Property costs in this country seem more than high enough at present, considering we're one of the most sparsely populated countries in europe after scandanavia. (and most of that's in the arctic)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,223 ✭✭✭Michael D Not Higgins


    ZeroThreat wrote: »
    Rubbish, this seems more like selfishness on your end. You wish house prices to return to ridiculous over-inflated levels to benefit you personally, but this would have an adverse effect by pushing property prices even further beyond the reach of everyone else seeking to buy. Property costs in this country seem more than high enough at present, considering we're one of the most sparsely populated countries in europe after scandanavia. (and most of that's in the arctic)

    The OP has posted several times on wanting to buy in the next few years so they have a vested interest in the price that property is selling at. I think the story in the OP was an anecdote rather than a reason to want higher prices.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 161 ✭✭appfry


    Ray Palmer wrote: »
    The report said rents would rise as did I so that sounds like an accurate prediction?

    There was a lot of people wishing rents to fall but with out any reasoning behind it. When you looked at the details it was obvious if nothing changed rents would rise. They did.

    People are now saying house prices can't and won't rise because people can't afford it. That is the same argument that was used to say rents wouldn't rise. Rents went up and people paid, some simply couldn't afford and became homeless. People were sure this couldn't happen. It did.

    Right now we are getting close to the point where houses will be out of the reach of individuals forever. The same thing has happened in all cities as they grow. Even when the city becomes poor certain property is held forever by companies and investors.


    No. It was a guess. There were reports saying everything at the time.
    That was just one. I was talking about the reaction and the "I was right before and i will always be right in future" reactions in the following posts in that thread. All were 100% right in their own opinions, but when you go back and look at them a few years later you see that all the arguments were just guesses disguised as knowledge and nothing more. That is the way of the internet.

    When I bought my first property I thought I would never be able to buy ever as prices were rising so high and wages were so low.
    One day I got a new job with more money, my savings increased and suddenly I found I was able to buy. Lots of people advised me not to. It was a scary decision, but I went for it.
    It was the same for every age group as they grow older and gain better jobs and more experience. We all think we will never be able to buy a house until one day we can.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,115 ✭✭✭asteroids over berlin


    yes


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,513 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    appfry wrote: »
    No. It was a guess. There were reports saying everything at the time.
    That was just one. I was talking about the reaction and the "I was right before and i will always be right in future" reactions in the following posts in that thread. All were 100% right in their own opinions, but when you go back and look at them a few years later you see that all the arguments were just guesses disguised as knowledge and nothing more. That is the way of the internet.

    When I bought my first property I thought I would never be able to buy ever as prices were rising so high and wages were so low.
    One day I got a new job with more money, my savings increased and suddenly I found I was able to buy. Lots of people advised me not to. It was a scary decision, but I went for it.
    It was the same for every age group as they grow older and gain better jobs and more experience. We all think we will never be able to buy a house until one day we can.
    It was not a guess. Facts were considered and a theory of likely results were derived. People argued that things would be different but if you look back you can see they didn't have facts just feelings heavily tainted by desire.
    Less property being built and increasing demand for housing. That was not a guess that was reality. People said rent allowance kept rents up but when it was reduced and rent didn't that shows that view was simply wrong. Yet if you read the thread people were still claiming that it was a false floor when it was already proven not to be true.
    There weren't competing theories with statistical analysis showing rents and prices going down. There were people saying it will happen but that doesn't make a theory as there were no facts.
    I wasn't guessing and if you think I was you didn't understand what I said in the thread then.

    As for how you described how you managed to buy that is your story. Suggesting this is the normal is really bizzar. Most people work a job, try to save and buy a property they can afford. Now some people will never be able to buy. Some because they won't earn enough in their jobs for the area the want to live in. Others simply missed the boat, hesitate when prices were rising, then too expensive, then too risky, then can't get enough from the bank and finally too old to get a mortgage. Very easy to be 40 and in that situation. That is pretty much a permanent renter now. That population of renters is new and ultimately has led to less rentals by increasing the demand.
    Increases in renters create a viable investment opportunity. There is also the normal development of cities and Dublin is going through it. A lot of this is predictable in the long term and not a guess. If you feel happier thinking people just guess fine but it isn't accurate or true.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 161 ✭✭appfry


    Ray Palmer wrote: »
    It was not a guess. Facts were considered and a theory of likely results were derived. People argued that things would be different but if you look back you can see they didn't have facts just feelings heavily tainted by desire.
    Less property being built and increasing demand for housing. That was not a guess that was reality. People said rent allowance kept rents up but when it was reduced and rent didn't that shows that view was simply wrong. Yet if you read the thread people were still claiming that it was a false floor when it was already proven not to be true.
    There weren't competing theories with statistical analysis showing rents and prices going down. There were people saying it will happen but that doesn't make a theory as there were no facts.
    I wasn't guessing and if you think I was you didn't understand what I said in the thread then.

    As for how you described how you managed to buy that is your story. Suggesting this is the normal is really bizzar. Most people work a job, try to save and buy a property they can afford. Now some people will never be able to buy. Some because they won't earn enough in their jobs for the area the want to live in. Others simply missed the boat, hesitate when prices were rising, then too expensive, then too risky, then can't get enough from the bank and finally too old to get a mortgage. Very easy to be 40 and in that situation. That is pretty much a permanent renter now. That population of renters is new and ultimately has led to less rentals by increasing the demand.
    Increases in renters create a viable investment opportunity. There is also the normal development of cities and Dublin is going through it. A lot of this is predictable in the long term and not a guess. If you feel happier thinking people just guess fine but it isn't accurate or true.

    Well if I was as good at guessing as you seem to be id be sitting in my mansion in the Bahamas right now. What happened? :)
    Maybe in the next few years because there are fortunes to be made by accurately predicting.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭Walter H Price


    Prices will rise in certain areas though it is unlikely we will ever see a full return to the 05-08 Prices , given new lending restrictions imposed by the banks. At the minute prices are artificially rising due to the lack of supply , once supply reaches equilibrium in the next few years , prices may well fall again as the demand has been greatly reduced with peoples buying power majorly restricted by lending restrictions.

    The 3 and 1/2 times salery and deposit rule alone will prevent this to buy a 650k property now would require a deposit of €130k and combined gross salerys of almost €150k for anybody looking to buy their second home, add into this that many looking to move home will likely also be in your parents situation and have negative equity. For first time buyers the deposit alone of €108k would be a massive stretch.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 161 ✭✭appfry


    Dont forget there was a time when you had to be in a building society saving x amount for x amount of years and not touch it before you would even be considered for a mortgage. And even then you were tied to that building society.
    That changed. Things change. The lending rules in place now may or may not be the same in a few years.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭Walter H Price


    appfry wrote: »
    Dont forget there was a time when you had to be in a building society saving x amount for x amount of years and not touch it before you would even be considered for a mortgage. And even then you were tied to that building society.
    That changed. Things change. The lending rules in place now may or may not be the same in a few years.

    i fully agree that the rules change and no doubt will again but i cant see a return to the lack of regulation that was in place in the early 2000's globally, that allowed our boom. Governments will never allow the banks to behave like that again after the damage it did , i doubt any of us will ever see credit be allowed to flow that freely and unchecked again in our lifetimes , too many wealthy people lost far too much for that to be allowed happen again.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 161 ✭✭appfry


    i fully agree that the rules change and no doubt will again but i cant see a return to the lack of regulation that was in place in the early 2000's globally, that allowed our boom. Governments will never allow the banks to behave like that again after the damage it did , i doubt any of us will ever see credit be allowed to flow that freely and unchecked again in our lifetimes , too many wealthy people lost far too much for that to be allowed happen again.

    Look at the last budget :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,513 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    appfry wrote: »
    Well if I was as good at guessing as you seem to be id be sitting in my mansion in the Bahamas right now. What happened? :)
    Maybe in the next few years because there are fortunes to be made by accurately predicting.
    I didn't guess but I own several properties and didn't lose a penny on property. If I wanted to I could sell up and live in the Bahamas now but I'll move to my villa in France in about 10 years. My retirement income will be quite substantial too.

    I can guess you won't be doing similar :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭Walter H Price


    appfry wrote: »
    Look at the last budget :)

    the last budget was fairly innocuous was there something i missed ?


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