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Hurricane Matthew

  • 30-09-2016 1:08pm
    #1
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Depending on where it's strongest winds hit, this Hurricane could be destructive. It's expected to strengthen over the open seas and veer Northwards, in the process becoming a major hurricane. It's one to keep an eye on for the East Coast of the USA into the future.
    Public Advisory 9A
    Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have
    increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
    strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Matthew
    could become a major hurricane later today or tonight.
    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
    the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
    miles (295 km).
    The latest minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft was
    971 mb (28.67 inches).
    114541W5_NL_sm.gif


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 17,796 ✭✭✭✭ hatrickpatrick


    This storm will almost certainly bring large-scale destruction to Jamaica and Cuba. Landfalls after that are a bit unpredictable this far out.

    It's obviously far too early to say, but the models seem to generally favour a Northeastward track after Cuba in which case it would avoid the US altogether, although it may still brush the coast closely enough to cause some stormy weather. GFS ensembles show very few scenarios in which it moves west once it begins its northward turn, and the ECM unfortunately doesn't do predictions that far out. On WU's chart, the GFDL and NGDFL are the only models showing US landfall, with the BAMM, GFS and HWRF all taking it out to sea:

    at201614_model.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,675 ✭✭✭ ronnie3585


    NHC's latest update has winds at 140mph, Cat 4. Huge intensification throughout the day. He's turing out to be a beast!


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    It's now a Category 5 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 260km/h (160 miles). The rainfall forecast for Jamaica (which is on a hurricane watch) is 10 to 15 inches with up to 25 inches in pockets, similar amounts for Southern and South West Haiti (which is on a tropical storm watch). Minimum central pressure is 941mb. It's a very serious hurricane and the level of destruction in it's path is on course to be severe.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The NHC saying that Mathew has cloud tops colder then -80C ,couple that with travelling over water at approx 28C , the mind boggles at the energy being produced. That is some serious amount of rain set to fall.

    I note that the NHC are reminding people that Florida cant be ruled from the impacts of Matthew out at this stage either.

    It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
    errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
    Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
    from Matthew in Florida.


    jG5rJwg.jpg?1

    NOAA ESRL Demo -- Tropical Cyclone Tracks from Experimental Forecast & Ensemble Models
    486xFEJ.png?1


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Pressure having increased a little during the day is down to 940mb. Max sustained wind speed of 240 km/h (150mph) making it a category 4 Hurricane. Hurricane warnings now for most of Haiti and Jamaica with the track forecast to be a little east of previous. Hurricane watch for Eastern Cuba and the rest of Haiti. Hopefully people have enough warning to prepare as much as possible for the Hurricane.
    NHC Hurricane Matthew public advisory 15:
    Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25
    inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum amounts
    of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
    accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican
    Republic, and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts
    of 25 inches. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening
    flash floods and mud slides.

    STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
    and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
    following amounts above normal tide levels...

    Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
    South Coast of Haiti...5 to 8 feet
    Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
    Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
    Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...2 to 4 feet
    RTE Independent Irish Times


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,680 ✭✭✭ BumperD


    The forward speed of Matthew as it approaches land will have a very big impact on the damage as much as the category strength. If its slow, it will throw up the seas and pummell the coast over a longer duration. If it speeds up as it approaches land, it will pass by quickly (still damaging, but at least not a 24-36 hour event) for the poor unfortunates in its path.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,680 ✭✭✭ BumperD


    Still waiting for this turn north. The last 8hr loop has Matthew moving Northwest with the last iteration west. All the models say a sharp turn north later today.

    https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Hurricane-Matthew?map=sat


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Very slow moving indeed, potentially catastrophic. According to the NHC set to remain a Cat 4 for the next 36 - 48hrs with little wind sheer, once in the Atlantic set to decrease some due to increased sheer and cooler ocean temperatures.

    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
    800 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

    ...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY
    NORTHWESTWARD...


    SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
    LOCATION...14.1N 74.3W
    ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
    ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES


    wZ3s45N.gif

    QI2kIHH.jpg?1

    yWN7sVA.jpg


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    vis0.gif
    For an imagery loop of Hurricane Matthew.
    Up to forty inches of rain or about a meter in isolated parts of Haiti, it's a big worry and so tough on the nation if the current forecast comes to pass, given the recent devastating earthquake in 2010 it went through.
    It's still expected to move towards the North West and then North but the latest advisory has it essentially meandering, moving West at 6km/h. Max sustained winds at 220km/h (140mph). 947mb (advisory 18)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,680 ✭✭✭ BumperD


    5pm update due within the hour. Hoping to see the turn north as all the models have suggested....


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    From the 1100 NHC discussion..

    Also there has been a persistent, but
    inexplicable, cluster of deep convection located a couple of degrees
    to the east of the hurricane and the effect of this feature on
    Matthew's intensity evolution is unknown.


    Any ideas what this could be ?

    Looking at the loop below, it's like a second cyclone wants to develop ?

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-ft.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,680 ✭✭✭ BumperD


    Been there for a couple of days trailing the main circulation. Not that familiar with this but it's carrying about a foot of rain in addition to the main area


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,561 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    From the 1100 NHC discussion..

    Also there has been a persistent, but
    inexplicable, cluster of deep convection located a couple of degrees
    to the east of the hurricane and the effect of this feature on
    Matthew's intensity evolution is unknown.


    Any ideas what this could be ?

    Looking at the loop below, it's like a second cyclone wants to develop ?

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-ft.html

    Eyewall replacement hardly going to move in from over there maybe ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,680 ✭✭✭ BumperD


    at201614_ensmodel.gif&width=150&height=113&v=2

    Current models which are all in unison for a northerly turn.

    Hope they are right.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,680 ✭✭✭ BumperD


    at201614_sat.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,680 ✭✭✭ BumperD


    In terms of satelite visability (it will go dark in about 2 hrs), the storm is displaying a near perfect symetrical shape, notice the outward flow of outter bands. Interested to see the next update in terms of central pressure.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,680 ✭✭✭ BumperD


    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 022037
    TCPAT4

    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 19
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
    500 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

    ...POWERFUL MATTHEW MAINTAINING CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    LOCATION...14.6N 74.8W
    ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
    ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/022037.shtml

    No change in central pressure or strength from last update.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,680 ✭✭✭ BumperD


    8pm update just over an hour away. I'll put that and the 11pm updates up here though the chances of a picture are largely gone now as we go dark for the next 12 hours


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,680 ✭✭✭ BumperD


    Hurricane hunter aircraft is now within the eye of the storm so we will have new data within 25 mins


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,680 ✭✭✭ BumperD


    8pm update in with now change from 5pm. Still tracking NW at 5 mph.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,680 ✭✭✭ BumperD


    11pm advisory has the long awaited northern turn. Now tracking N at 5 mph. 145mph and 943mb.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 532 511


    I've never seen a hurricane spawn a huge blob like that, especially in just a few hours. Seems to have dragged up an enormous amount of moisture from the ocean.

    ir_lalo-animated.gif


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    The latest NHC advisory (21) has max sustained winds of 215km/h 130mph, still Cat 4, min central pressure of 943mb. It's slow moving at 9km/h and on course to be very close (landfall?) to South Western Haiti and still forecast to put a lot of rain (15-25 inches up to 40 inches/one meter) onto the impoverished country. It's a big worry that the infrastructure of Haiti is limited and such a Hurricane could be seriously life-threatening and cause widespread destruction.
    I should have acknowledged in my Opening Post that even at the time, the potential rain and storm surge could also be major factors and not just the wind speed and been more clear that the windspeed would already be enough to cause dangerous, destructive conditions. The latest advisory has a 10 to 15 foot raise in water level with the storm surge-big wave combination threat to Southeastern and Central Bahamas.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭ Iancar29


    12z GFS saying Matthew will hug the east coast. Not what people over there want to see happening.
    gfsna-14-114_gay2.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,796 ✭✭✭✭ hatrickpatrick


    Both the GFS and the two GFDL models, which are cited by Jeff Masters among the most reliable hurricane models, are now forecasting landfall in the United States. Furthermore, they are essentially predicting that Matthew will hug the coast as it moves Northward, which potentially means hurricane-force winds in several consecutive states as it moves along the inner Eastern seaboard.

    In fact, the latest spaghetti models show only a tiny handful of outlier models now predicting a northeastern deflection out to sea. North Carolina and Virginia in particular are in for a bit of a battering, assuming of course that the storm doesn't either change direction again or lose considerable strength before it gets that far north.

    Most commentators are talking about the potential for wind shear to attack Matthew once it clears the Bahamas.

    RTNv2P0.png

    The blue dashed lines on white-background strips on the left-hand side of the graphic near the US are upper troughs, and it's from the edges of these that upper level winds tend to emerge. So it looks like Matthew will encounter at least some shear as it moves northward - because the Pacific still has a lot of leftover head from last year's El Nino, those upper troughs are coming from EPAC thunderstorms and moving west-to-east across the US and Western Atlantic. They will probably have arrived into the Atlantic or at least be very close to it by the time Matthew begins to make landfall (assuming it does), which should drop the intensity a little. As you can see, Matthew has been under an upper anticyclone (blue H) for most of its life so far, which is one of the reasons it was able to strengthen so much as this feature pushed shearing upper level winds away from the fledging storm.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,750 ✭✭✭✭ bnt


    NBC News has a piece about the likely impact on Haiti's western peninsula. Severe flooding is expected, exacerbated by how denuded of vegetation much of the land is. The town of Les Cayes (pop 87,000) and surrounding villages are basically on a huge flood plain, it appears from the topography.

    Parvi enim sunt foris arma, nisi est consilium domi.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    It's still slow moving at 11km/h and max sustained wind at 220km/h 140mph. Given the limited nature of much of the housing in Haiti and the combination of wind, rain, higher water levels and slow movement, the amount of damage Hurricane Matthew is now likely to do is immense.
    NHC Forecast advisory 23 Note the North Eastern bias of the distance of the wind strength.
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
    EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
    64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
    50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
    34 KT.......160NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.
    12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 180SW 240NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Where is there a live satellite for this thing.

    My son is Matthew so im showing him his hurricane


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,675 ✭✭✭ ronnie3585


    Latest GFS runs looking grim for Florida:(
    14480474_10154428354477367_9205442046389489225_o.jpg


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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,796 ✭✭✭✭ hatrickpatrick


    ^ Indeed, and the NHC are now giving Matthew an extended period as a major hurricane - their charts had previously been suggesting that it would be down to Cat 2 or lower once it cleared the Bahamas, but their latest cone warning still has it listed as M (cat 3 or higher) when it's pulling in alongside Florida. So it looks like the Bahamas are in for a bigger battering than previously presumed, and it's also looking increasingly likely that the US is going to take some serious hits as well.

    Matthew is starting to look like the storm that finished Joaquin's job from last year - it was supposed to essentially be the first major "super storm" since Sandy for the US East Coast until it veered away at the last minute. Unfortunately the trend is reversed this time - while in Joaquin's case, the ECM was the only model initially showing a seaward turn and the rest of the models reluctantly joined it, this year the ECM seems to have flagged Matthew as a US landfall before the rest of the models, and they are now nudging closer to agreeing.

    FflRyJt.gif


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