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Hurricane Matthew
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30-09-2016 12:08pm#1Depending on where it's strongest winds hit, this Hurricane could be destructive. It's expected to strengthen over the open seas and veer Northwards, in the process becoming a major hurricane. It's one to keep an eye on for the East Coast of the USA into the future.
Public Advisory 9AData from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Matthew
could become a major hurricane later today or tonight.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft was
971 mb (28.67 inches).
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Comments
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This storm will almost certainly bring large-scale destruction to Jamaica and Cuba. Landfalls after that are a bit unpredictable this far out.
It's obviously far too early to say, but the models seem to generally favour a Northeastward track after Cuba in which case it would avoid the US altogether, although it may still brush the coast closely enough to cause some stormy weather. GFS ensembles show very few scenarios in which it moves west once it begins its northward turn, and the ECM unfortunately doesn't do predictions that far out. On WU's chart, the GFDL and NGDFL are the only models showing US landfall, with the BAMM, GFS and HWRF all taking it out to sea:
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The NHC saying that Mathew has cloud tops colder then -80C ,couple that with travelling over water at approx 28C , the mind boggles at the energy being produced. That is some serious amount of rain set to fall.
I note that the NHC are reminding people that Florida cant be ruled from the impacts of Matthew out at this stage either.
It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.
NOAA ESRL Demo -- Tropical Cyclone Tracks from Experimental Forecast & Ensemble Models
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Very slow moving indeed, potentially catastrophic. According to the NHC set to remain a Cat 4 for the next 36 - 48hrs with little wind sheer, once in the Atlantic set to decrease some due to increased sheer and cooler ocean temperatures.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016
...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...14.1N 74.3W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES
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For an imagery loop of Hurricane Matthew.
Up to forty inches of rain or about a meter in isolated parts of Haiti, it's a big worry and so tough on the nation if the current forecast comes to pass, given the recent devastating earthquake in 2010 it went through.
It's still expected to move towards the North West and then North but the latest advisory has it essentially meandering, moving West at 6km/h. Max sustained winds at 220km/h (140mph). 947mb (advisory 18)0 -
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Both the GFS and the two GFDL models, which are cited by Jeff Masters among the most reliable hurricane models, are now forecasting landfall in the United States. Furthermore, they are essentially predicting that Matthew will hug the coast as it moves Northward, which potentially means hurricane-force winds in several consecutive states as it moves along the inner Eastern seaboard.
In fact, the latest spaghetti models show only a tiny handful of outlier models now predicting a northeastern deflection out to sea. North Carolina and Virginia in particular are in for a bit of a battering, assuming of course that the storm doesn't either change direction again or lose considerable strength before it gets that far north.
Most commentators are talking about the potential for wind shear to attack Matthew once it clears the Bahamas.
The blue dashed lines on white-background strips on the left-hand side of the graphic near the US are upper troughs, and it's from the edges of these that upper level winds tend to emerge. So it looks like Matthew will encounter at least some shear as it moves northward - because the Pacific still has a lot of leftover head from last year's El Nino, those upper troughs are coming from EPAC thunderstorms and moving west-to-east across the US and Western Atlantic. They will probably have arrived into the Atlantic or at least be very close to it by the time Matthew begins to make landfall (assuming it does), which should drop the intensity a little. As you can see, Matthew has been under an upper anticyclone (blue H) for most of its life so far, which is one of the reasons it was able to strengthen so much as this feature pushed shearing upper level winds away from the fledging storm.0 -
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^ Indeed, and the NHC are now giving Matthew an extended period as a major hurricane - their charts had previously been suggesting that it would be down to Cat 2 or lower once it cleared the Bahamas, but their latest cone warning still has it listed as M (cat 3 or higher) when it's pulling in alongside Florida. So it looks like the Bahamas are in for a bigger battering than previously presumed, and it's also looking increasingly likely that the US is going to take some serious hits as well.
Matthew is starting to look like the storm that finished Joaquin's job from last year - it was supposed to essentially be the first major "super storm" since Sandy for the US East Coast until it veered away at the last minute. Unfortunately the trend is reversed this time - while in Joaquin's case, the ECM was the only model initially showing a seaward turn and the rest of the models reluctantly joined it, this year the ECM seems to have flagged Matthew as a US landfall before the rest of the models, and they are now nudging closer to agreeing.
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In terms of impacts over the next couple of days, Haiti is definitely the one to be concerned about. Its a 3rd world country that has suffered more than its fair share of natural disasters.
140 miles south of the western tip of Haiti. This means 20-40 hours of rain until it passes out of the way of Haiti, with the most wind & rain on the eastern quadrant. This is not going to go well for this island nation.
Bahamas and Cuba are better equipped to cope.
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Rain rolling into Haiti earlier today
Taking cover
Flooded car in Haiti earlier today
Guantanamo evacuation yesterday
Source https://weather.com/news/news/hurricane-matthew-latest-news-00 -
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iLikeWaffles wrote: »Holy balls imaging that coming towards you. Can do nothing but pray!
I would imagine seeking shelter and battening down the hatches would be a more fruitful reaction than praying for Jebus to help your plight
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...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MADE LANDFALL NEAR LES ANGLAIS IN WESTERN HAITI AT 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
The companion rain formation is still there.
The wind strength hasn't changed (230km/h), 934mb, moving at 15km/h. Some watches in parts of Florida are likely to be announed some time today. It's forecast to get close to the Florida East coast as a major Hurricane.0 -
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SnakePlissken wrote: »I would imagine seeking shelter and battening down the hatches would be a more fruitful reaction than praying for Jebus to help your plight
You'd be surprised with the power of belief.0 -
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Looking more serious now for the East Coast
NHC: Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track since
strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous storm surge will
extend far from the center of Matthew. Most of the models shows a
strong hurricane near the east coast of Florida and the southeast
United States from days 2 through 5.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the
Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services
and other government officials in those countries.
2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches have been issued
for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys.
3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this
weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too
soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on
the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north. At a minimum,
very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of
the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map (Inundation)
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